US Economy

From Macquarie: Noise around the US political landscape has taken a turn following Clinton’s recent health scare.

Momentum!

The Trump poll surge continues: Time to mull the unmullable, from the FT: As Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Société Générale, points out, those polls are narrowing against a backdrop of a nervous market.

Don’t look now!

By popular demand, here’s the video of Hillary Clinton’s weekend faint: And the latest polls: From The Independent: It has now been revealed by her doctor she was diagnosed with pneumonia Friday.

We’ve seen reasonable US jobs, a poor manufacturing ISM and last night a swoon in the US services ISM: Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 79th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

This I completely agree with, from Goldman: Q: You moved up your probability of a hike at the September meeting to 55% on Friday despite a below-consensus payroll number.

From the BLS Friday night: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent, the U.S.

From the FT: China and the US, the world’s two largest carbon polluters, have both ratified the Paris climate change agreement in a big boost to efforts to bring the UN accord into force.

From Goldman: We expect a 165k increase in nonfarm payroll employment in August, below consensus expectations for a 180k gain.

As the clickety clack of crochet needles falls silent in New York it can only mean one thing, that Janet Yellen is out of here rocking chair and on the move.

I have described at length the troubled relationship that exists between the a rising US economy and dollar and falling China and yuan.

From Westpac: Of late, market participants have found it difficult to ascertain what course of action the FOMC is likely to take in coming months, with a number of divergent perspectives on policy being offered.

Janet Yellen was unambiguous in her speech Friday night: Current Economic Situation and Outlook U.S.

Markets are delicately poised, listened attentively to the ‘click, click’ of a pair of crochet needles in New York.

There’s always one and in this cycle it’s corporate debt, from BofAML:   In the first several years 2010-2013 the Fed-induced declining interest rates and QE drove retail money into bond funds and ETFs.

From the FOMC minutes: With respect to the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy, members continued to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators would strengthen.

From Macquarie Bank:  Evidence continues to mount in our proprietary analysis of 131 sub-industries that headline wage growth (average hourly earnings) is on the cusp of further acceleration and new jobs are of high quality.

by Chris Becker Collectively, Australians love bashing America for their brashness, consumerism and patriotism (although don’t hold up a mirror during this Olympics season!) and wackiness, particularly in politics and of course Florida Man.

It’s a central question for markets.

by Chris Becker Let’s be clear, risk markets want Hillary Clinton as the next President of the United States. She represents the establishment, and at worst (or best, depending on your point of view) “look into” some Wall Street malfeasance, but her economic policy will resemble that of President Obama.