New Zealand Economy

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NZ Labour’s demand-side housing reforms ready to launch

By Leith van Onselen We supported the New Zealand Labour Party in the lead-up to last month’s election because of its excellent housing platform, which promised to address both demand and supply-side distortions via negative gearing reform, banning foreign buyers of existing homes, tighter capital gains taxes, removal of urban growth boundaries, plus bond financing

1

RBNZ LVR restrictions continues to rein-in the speculators

By Leith van Onselen Data released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) yesterday revealed that property investor lending has continued to cool after the RBNZ implemented new loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions targeting investors, which officially came into effect on 1 October 2016, although banks began informally applying the rules since they were first

30

Is Jacinda Ardern also a fake?

Cross-posted from Croaking Cassandra. It was confirmed yesterday that the new government’s immigration policy will be the policy the Labour Party campaigned on (albeit very quietly).  And so we learned that the new government will remain a fully signed-up adherent of the same flawed, increasingly misguided, “big New Zealand” approach that has guided immigration policy

114

Legend, Ardern, bans foreign property buyers

How easy was that? Overseas buyers will no longer be allowed to purchase existing homes in New Zealand, Prime Minister-elect Jacinda Ardern has announced, as she unveiled a raft of policy deals made with her coalition partners. The move to tackle soaring property prices was agreed during lengthy negotiations between the Labour Party leader and

1

Auckland’s population continues to grow manically

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released sub-national population estimates, which reveals that Auckland’s population continues to grow manically, increasing by 42,700 (2.65%) to 1.66 million in the year to June, 28,900 (1.79%) coming form net overseas migration: The data is yet another cruel blow to aspiring home buyers and renters in Auckland,

18

Jacinda Ardern walks the housing tightrope

By Leith van Onselen CoreLogic has released its New Zealand housing market update for September-October, which revealed that the average dwelling value in New Zealand hit an all-time high $641,648 in August, although the annual growth rate had fallen to 4.8% – the lowest level in five years: CoreLogic also revealed that Auckland’s average dwelling

1

Kiwi recession indicator eases for Australia

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand released its permanent & long-term migration figures for September 2017, which revealed that immigration into New Zealand has begun to drift back from record high levels, with 70,986 annual net permanent and long-term arrivals landing in New Zealand in the year to September, down from a peak of 72,402

3

NZ immediately reaps benefit of ex-ponzi growth

Via ANZ: Following the formation of the coalition government in New Zealand, AUD/NZD has made a definitive break higher and will form a range around fair value (1.1250) A sustained move higher from there will be contingent on factors on both sides of the Tasman: relative business confidence, migration and the stance of the two

83

Kingmaker delivers NZ a new PM on housing and immigration

By Leith van Onselen Just shy of a month ago, on 23 September, the New Zealand General Election was held. A deadlock ensued whereby none of the major parties secured the 61 seats necessary to form Government, with the incumbent National Party securing 56 seats, the Labour/Green alliance securing 54 seats, and New Zealand First

19

NZ housing costs outstrip income growth over past decade

By Leith van Onselen From Statistics New Zealand comes a new report showing how housing costs have outstripped income rises over the past decade, despite falling interest rates: Since 2007, average annual household income is up nearly $30,000 (42.0 percent), to reach $98,621 (before tax) in 2017. Over the same 10 years, average annual housing

19

Former NZ PM becomes banker

Work for Merrill Lynch. Become PM. Do nothing about house prices. Ramp immigration. Sell your mansion to a Chinese investor. Then join the bank: ANZ has appointed former New Zealand Prime Minister John Key as chairman of ANZ New Zealand. He will succeed John Judge as chairman as he retires from the board of directors in January,

7

NZ house prices fall in September as volumes collapse to 6-year low

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for September, which revealed a 1.3% seasonally adjusted monthly fall in the national median house price, with prices up just 0.6% year-on-year: Outside Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices fell by 0.9% in September, with prices up 5.4% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities,

3

NZ Government’s “dismal failure” on Auckland housing

By Leith van Onselen I have written many times how New Zealand’s National Government has failed dismally in tackling Auckland’s housing crisis, despite promising to do so over its nine year reign. Yesterday, we received more evidence of the National Government’s failure, with its Auckland Housing Accord – designed to deliver tens-of-thousands of ‘affordable’ homes

3

NZ house prices begin to fall as macroprudential bites

By Leith van Onselen The evidence continues to accumulate showing that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) recent loan-to-value ratio restrictions targeting investors has been successful in cooling mortgage demand amid record population growth. Last week, the RBNZ revealed that the share of mortgages going to investors, as well as the share of interest-only mortgages

5

Auckland’s housing shortage worsens

By Leith van Onselen The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to fail. Today, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that despite a big lift in Auckland dwelling consents in August, new supply continues to fall well short of immigration-driven demand. There were 1,184 dwelling consents

3

RBNZ LVR restrictions reins-in the speculators

By Leith van Onselen Data released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revealed that property investor lending has continued to cool after the RBNZ implemented new loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions targeting investors, which officially came into effect on 1 October 2016, although banks began informally applying the rules since they were first announced

6

NZ Kingmaker weighs-up his options

By Leith van Onselen With neither major party gaining enough votes in Saturday’s election to form government, New Zealand First’s (NZF) Winston Peters, who holds the balance of power, continues to keep the electorate and media guessing over which side he’ll back to form a minority government. As reported in Interest.co.nz yesterday, Peters outlined that

44

NZ votes ‘yes’ to housing ponzi economy

By Leith van Onselen In the months leading-up to Saturday’s New Zealand election, various Roy Morgan Research surveys revealed significant voter angst over housing, specifically concerns about affordability/increasing prices as well as homelessness/housing shortages. Labour went to the election with an excellent housing platform that addresses both supply and demand with negative gearing reform, banning foreign

2

NZ Immigration stuck at record levels

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand released its permanent & long-term migration figures for August 2017 yesterday, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand remained near a record high 72,072 people over the year: According to Statistics New Zealand, migrant arrivals were a record high 132,200 in the August

4

NZ Prime Minister fails badly in housing defence

By Leith van Onselen With the New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply failing dismally, and it facing possible election defeat as the nation hits the polls on Saturday, Prime Minister Bill English has defended the Government’s housing record. From Interest.co.nz: Prime Minister Bill English has defended his

9

China invades NZ election

Via The Australian: The report by researcher Anne-Marie Brady, of the University of Canterbury, singled out a $100,000 donation last year by six Chinese donors who had attended a lunch with Mr English’s predecessor as prime minister, John Key, over the bid to change the New Zealand flag. Professor Brady noted the Chinese donors want

17

What will cutting immigration do to the NZ economy?

Via UBS today: Our economic forecasts (see NZEP 8 September) reflect our base-case scenario election outcome i.e. that the National Party will form a government with the support of NZ First (see NZEP 1 September). While there could also be potential ramifications for the economic outlook from such a coalition arrangement, the implications of a

15

NZ Labour schools Australian Labor on immigration

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to this Saturday’s New Zealand General Election, the Labour opposition has continually taken aim at New Zealand’s excessive immigration program, which Labour claims is choking housing, infrastructure and public services in Auckland, as well as undercutting working conditions. The Economist has published an interesting profile on Labour’s leader,