New Zealand Economy

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Is Australia’s housing bust spreading to New Zealand?

By Leith van Onselen The property downturn appears to be spreading into New Zealand, with the latest valuation data from Quotable Value revealing that average residential property values in Auckland were almost 1% lower year-on-year in January, whereas the rate of price growth has also declined sharply across the rest of New Zealand: The latest RBNZ Survey

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NZ unemployment jump whacks Australian dollar again

NZ Stats surprised with rising unemployment this morning versus expected flat: Unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent Underutilisation rate rose to 12.1 percent Employment rate fell to 67.8 percent Filled jobs rose 1.3 percent Average ordinary time hourly earnings rose to $31.63 Wage rates increased 1.9 percent annually. The NZD took a pounding dragging the

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Ardern’s Kiwibuild turns epic ‘Kiwibust’

By Leith van Onselen I’ve noted previously how the New Zealand Labour Party’s promise to “build 100,000 affordable homes across the country” is shaping up as an epic failure due to: the government changing the program from “building” to “facilitating” the delivery of 100,000 affordable dwellings, meaning that NZ taxpayers would merely ‘underwrite’ many dwellings that would have been

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Statistics NZ dramatically lowers immigration estimate

By Leith van Onselen “Look mum, I’ve got a new ruler”. Statistics New Zealand has revised the way that it measures net overseas migration (NOM). Instead of using departure cards that people filled out when leaving the country, Statistics New Zealand now uses an “outcomes-based measure”, which it claims is more efficient and accurate. This

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NZ housing sales plumb seven year lows

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for December, which revealed a 2.9% seasonally adjusted fall in the national median house price, with prices up just 1.7% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices fell by 1.1% in December, with prices up 6.5% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities,

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Auckland’s housing crisis deepens

By Leith van Onselen Late last year, Interest.co.nz published an alarming report showing how the Auckland region’s undersupply of homes has blown-out by nearly 400% in just four years – from 6944 in 2014 to 34,150 in 2018 – on the back of an insane 134,000 increase in population from net overseas migration: On Friday,

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Like Australia, immigration rorts run riot across New Zealand

By Leith van Onselen Over the past few years, MB has meticulously catalogued the widespread rorting of Australia’s immigration system that pervades across the entire economy. Well, it appears New Zealand is experiencing the very same systemic rorting, according to a recent detailed report published in Stuff.co.nz: After months of investigating visa frauds at the

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Auckland Council: house prices won’t follow Sydney/Melbourne down

By Leith van Onselen Auckland Council’s chief economist, David Norman, has down-played concerns that Auckland’s housing market could follow Sydney’s and Melbourne’s down. From Interest.co.nz: “Suggestions that the Auckland housing market will follow those of the Australian eastern seaboard seem baseless,” he said. “Sydney and Melbourne are in a very different position, having not systematically under-built the

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NZ GDP growth stalls, RBNZ to cut?

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released national accounts figures for the September quarter of 2018, with Gross domestic product (GDP) rising by just 0.3% over the quarter to be up 3.0% year-on-year. GDP per capita was flat in the September quarter but rose by 1.0% year-on-year. Growth my sector was mixed, with

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As Auckland’s house prices fall, the rest of NZ’s rises

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for November, which revealed a 1.3% seasonally adjusted increase in the national median house price, with prices up 7.1% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 0.1% in November, with prices up 7.9% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities, Auckland’s

9

RBNZ to ease LVR restrictions

By Leith van Onselen A few months back, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released a study showing that its loan-to-value ratio (LVR) caps had fundamentally de-risked the housing market: The report found that prior to the introduction of LVRs in October 2013, the average new mortgage was for 67% of a property’s value.

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Liar Ardern’s Kiwibuild turns ‘Kiwibust’

By Leith van Onselen I’ve noted previously how the New Zealand Labour Party’s promise to “build 100,000 affordable homes across the country” is shaping up as an epic failure due to: the government changing the program from “building” to “facilitating” the delivery of 100,000 affordable dwellings, meaning that NZ taxpayers would merely ‘underwrite’ many dwellings that would have been

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Liar Ardern breaks key election promise to cut immigration

By Leith van Onselen In the lead-up to last year’s September general election, the New Zealand Labour Party launched a plan to reduce immigration by around a third in a bid to relieve chronic housing and infrastructure pressures (especially around Auckland): …in recent years our population has been growing rapidly as record numbers of migrants

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Ardern’s Kiwibuild affordable housing program an epic failure

By Leith van Onselen I noted previously how the New Zealand Labour Party’s promise to “build 100,000 affordable homes across the country” was already shaping up as an epic failure due to: the government changing the program from “building” to “facilitating” the delivery of 100,000 affordable dwellings, meaning that NZ taxpayers would merely ‘underwrite’ many dwellings that would have

10

NZ housing market to follow Australia’s down?

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s housing market looks set to follow Australia’s into a correction. According to Realestate.co.nz, Auckland’s housing market is now favouring buyers for the first time since 2011, whereas Quotable Values says that average prices are now falling: It’s a buyer’s market in Auckland for the start of summer, with the

8

Despite rising approvals, NZ’s housing shortgage worsening

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s chronic housing shortage continues to worsen, especially in Auckland, with stronger dwelling consents still failing to keep pace with turbo-charged population growth. There were 12,945 dwelling consents issued across Auckland in the year to September (up 25%): Whereas there were 32,548 consents issued across New Zealand over the year

2

Auckland’s housing market continues to flatline

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for September, which revealed a 0.4% seasonally adjusted increase in the national median house price, with prices up 5.4% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 1.1% in September, with prices up 8.5% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities, Auckland’s

7

Ardern’s Kiwibuild affordable housing program turns farce

By Leith van Onselen I noted previously how the New Zealand Labour Party’s promise to “build 100,000 affordable homes across the country” was already shaping up as an epic failure due to: the government changing the program from “building” to “facilitating” the delivery of 100,000 affordable dwellings, meaning that NZ taxpayers would merely ‘underwrite’ many dwellings that would have

2

Despite record approvals, Auckland’s dwelling shortage worsens

By Leith van Onselen New Zealand’s chronic housing shortage continues to worsen, especially in Auckland, with record dwelling consents still failing to keep pace with turbo-charged population growth. There were 12,959 dwelling consents issued across Auckland in the year to July (up 26%):   Whereas there were 32,759 consents issued across New Zealand over the

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RBNZ: Rates on hold until 2020

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has released its latest Monetary Policy Statement, whereby it has left the cash rate unchanged at an “expansionary” 1.75% and noted that rates are likely to remain on hold until 2020: The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent. We expect to keep

0

NZ GDP lifts, but per capita weak

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released national accounts figures for the June quarter of 2018, with Gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 1.0% over the quarter to be up 2.7% year-on-year. GDP per capita rose by 0.5% in the June quarter and by a soggy 0.7% year-on-year – the equal lowest per

2

Auckland house prices continue to flatline

By Leith van Onselen The REINZ has released its house price data for August, which revealed a 0.4% seasonally adjusted decline in the national median house price, with prices up 3.9% year-on-year: Outside of Auckland, seasonally adjusted house prices rose by 0.3% in August, with prices up 6.2% year-on-year. Looking at the major cities, Auckland’s