New Zealand Economy

9

When will depressed New Zealanders turn against Jacinda Ardern?

March’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has been released, which reveals that consumer sentiment in New Zealand has collapsed to its lowest level in the series’ 18 year history: Confidence about the New Zealand economy continues to sour, as illustrated in the next charts: The slump in consumer confidence follows a sharp rise up the

16

Crazy New Zealand house prices face “reality check”

New Zealand had one of the world’s fastest growing housing markets in 2021, with prices nationally rising 25%. However since November, house prices have fallen 2.6% across New Zealand, with every major market slowing: All leading indicators are now flashing red, pointing to a significant house price correction. First, New Zealand home buyer sentiment has

1

New Zealand Q4 GDP comes in soft

New Zealand’s Q4 GDP has been released, which rebounded 3.0% over the quarter to be up 5.6% year-on-year. The result missed analysts’ expectations, which tipped a 3.3% quarterly rise. According to Statistics New Zealand: Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 3.0 percent in the December 2021 quarter, following a 3.6 percent fall in the September

18

Ardern stares down crashing New Zealand housing market

The latest mortgage commitments data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revealed that mortgage demand has collapsed, falling 27% in the year to January 2021, driven by a 51% decline in investor mortgage commitments: This slump in mortgage demand has arisen following significant increases in both fixed and variable mortgage rates, driven in

17

Another poll turns against Jacinda Ardern as Kiwi sentiment collapses

Earlier this week, Roy Morgan released polling showing that the Opposition National Party has moved well ahead of Ardern’s Labour Party on both Primary Vote: Yesterday, the TVNZ/Kantar Public poll was released, which also showed that National has taken the lead over Labour, leading 39% (up 7%) to 37% (down 3%): This comes as New Zealand

13

New Zealand turns against Jacinda Ardern

Days after New Zealand’s consumer confidence hit a record low amid an explosion in COVID cases (i.e. around 200,000 since the start of February): Voters continue to move against Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The latest Roy Morgan poll shows that the Opposition National Party has moved well ahead of Ardern’s Labour Party on both Primary

2

Kiwis tipped to flood back to Australia

Economists at New Zealand’s largest bank – ANZ – are tipping that Kiwis will flood across the pond to Australia over the next few years, worsening skills shortages across the country, increasing inflationary pressures, and possibly leading to a “harder than expected landing in the [housing] construction industry”: The staggered nature of the current reopening

6

How New Zealand became a low-wage guest worker economy

A cabinet paper from New Zealand’s Ministry of Business Innovation & Employment, which explains how New Zealand has morphed into a low-wage guest worker economy on the back of extreme levels of temporary migration. The cabinet paper also recommends the Ardern Government “rebalance the immigration system by pursuing a lower overall volume of migrants and

2

RBNZ sees earlier and steeper house price falls

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) latest Monetary Policy Statement, released yesterday, is now forecasting an earlier and steeper decline in house prices, beginning from the current quarter. This comes after the RBNZ yesterday tightened the cash rate to 1.0% with further tightening foreshadowed. Below are the key extracts with respect to New Zealand

28

Jacinda Ardern unloads immigration dump truck

In May last year, New Zealand’s Ardern Government vowed to end low-skilled, wage crushing migration via a “once-in-a generation” reset for New Zealand’s immigration system. It flagged a significantly smaller migration intake post-Covid that focuses on highly skilled, highly paid and productive migrants that fill genuine skills shortages. This means abolishing the current low-skilled system,

10

Voter support for Jacinda Ardern collapses

Covid-fatigued Kiwis are fast falling out of love with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The latest Roy Morgan opinion poll shows that primary support for Ardern’s Labour Government has fallen sharply: Meanwhile, support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government has surged above the Labour Greens coalition, hitting its highest level since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern

6

NZ unemployment plunges to 3.2%, wages lift

New Zealand’s unemployment rate has plummeted to 3.2%, according to Statistics NZ: The unemployment rate remained low in the last quarter of 2021, down to 3.2 percent, from 3.3 percent (revised) the previous quarter, while the underutilisation rate did not change at 9.2 percent. “The labour market continued to show the tightness we saw in

23

Kiwis backlash against Ardern’s draconian Covid policies

Covid-fatigued Kiwis are falling out of love with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The latest Roy Morgan opinion poll shows that primary support for Ardern’s Labour Government has fallen sharply: Meanwhile, support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government has surged above the Labour Greens coalition, hitting its highest level since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came

7

NZ inflation hits three decade high

New Zealand inflation has hit a three decade high, driven by both external and domestic forces, according to Statistics New Zealand: The consumers price index increased 5.9 percent from the December 2020 quarter to the December 2021 quarter, the biggest movement since a 7.6 percent annual increase in the year to the June 1990 quarter,

15

Jacinda Ardern clings desperately to COVID-zero

In October, New Zealand Prime Minister officially abandoned the country’s COVID elimination strategy, claiming the Delta variant was “a tentacle that has been incredibly hard to shake”. Yet despite New Zealand’s high vaccination rate, whereby 76% of the total population is at least double vaccinated, the isolation period for positive cases has been extended to

20

New Zealand’s housing correction begins

Earlier this month, I tipped that New Zealand’s housing market was poised for a correction after experiencing record breaking growth of 27.6% 2021, according to CoreLogic: Today, the REINZ released its house price index for December, which recorded a 1.6% monthly decline; although prices were still up 21.5% over the calendar year: The next table