March’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has been released, which reveals that consumer sentiment in New Zealand has collapsed to its lowest level in the series’ 18 year history: Confidence about the New Zealand economy continues to sour, as illustrated in the next charts: The slump in consumer confidence follows a sharp rise up the
After experiencing one of the world’s biggest house price booms in 2021, the warning signs are piling up for New Zealand’s housing market. First, after registering annual mortgage growth of 128% in May last year, the value of new mortgage commitments contracted by 23% in the year to February: Given almost every Kiwi purchases a
Kiwibank economists are tipping that New Zealand could see a net migration outflow of 20,000 by the end of this year as the borders re-open, with many likely to head to Australia: As Aotearoa gradually reopens to the rest of the world post-covid, the net outflow of migrants is expected to deepen further before eventually
Data released on Friday by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revealed that mortgage growth has collapsed across New Zealand. After rising a whopping 128% in the year to May 2021, annual new mortgage commitments fell by 23% in the year to February 2022 in trend terms: This decline was driven by a sharp
The International Monetary Fund (IMF ) has warned that rising interest rates poses an major threat to the New Zealand economy due to the country’s extreme exposure to the housing market. The housing market was a risk because of the high levels of debt households were carrying, how vulnerable they were to rising interest rates
New Zealand had one of the world’s fastest growing housing markets in 2021, with prices nationally rising 25%. However since November, house prices have fallen 2.6% across New Zealand, with every major market slowing: All leading indicators are now flashing red, pointing to a significant house price correction. First, New Zealand home buyer sentiment has
Last week saw only 21% of homes taken to auction across New Zealand sell, with the rest being passed in: The poor results have prompted prominent New Zealand property investor, Andy Thackwray, to declare the nation’s housing market is “about to tank”: Thackwray doesn’t mince his words – he says the market is about to
New Zealand’s housing market is staring down a potential crash. Mortgage demand has already fallen hard, with new mortgage commitments slumping 27% in the year to January 2021, driven by a 51% crash in investor mortgages, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): This follows a sharp rise in fixed and floating mortgage
New Zealand’s Q4 GDP has been released, which rebounded 3.0% over the quarter to be up 5.6% year-on-year. The result missed analysts’ expectations, which tipped a 3.3% quarterly rise. According to Statistics New Zealand: Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 3.0 percent in the December 2021 quarter, following a 3.6 percent fall in the September
The latest mortgage commitments data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revealed that mortgage demand has collapsed, falling 27% in the year to January 2021, driven by a 51% decline in investor mortgage commitments: This slump in mortgage demand has arisen following significant increases in both fixed and variable mortgage rates, driven in
Earlier this week, Roy Morgan released polling showing that the Opposition National Party has moved well ahead of Ardern’s Labour Party on both Primary Vote: Yesterday, the TVNZ/Kantar Public poll was released, which also showed that National has taken the lead over Labour, leading 39% (up 7%) to 37% (down 3%): This comes as New Zealand
Days after New Zealand’s consumer confidence hit a record low amid an explosion in COVID cases (i.e. around 200,000 since the start of February): Voters continue to move against Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The latest Roy Morgan poll shows that the Opposition National Party has moved well ahead of Ardern’s Labour Party on both Primary
After cutting itself off from the world over the pandemic, Kiwis seem to be depressed about reopening to the world and the prospect that Omicron is about to be let loose. The latest Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey for New Zealand, released on Friday, showed that confidence has plunged to its lowest level on record
According to CoreLogic, New Zealand property values rose by 0.8% in February to be up 25.2% year-on-year: As shown in the next table, Auckland’s average property value has surpassed $1.5 million for the first ever time, with New Zealand’s average value hitting a record high $1.04 million: In fact, average values are above $1 million
Economists at New Zealand’s largest bank – ANZ – are tipping that Kiwis will flood across the pond to Australia over the next few years, worsening skills shortages across the country, increasing inflationary pressures, and possibly leading to a “harder than expected landing in the [housing] construction industry”: The staggered nature of the current reopening
A cabinet paper from New Zealand’s Ministry of Business Innovation & Employment, which explains how New Zealand has morphed into a low-wage guest worker economy on the back of extreme levels of temporary migration. The cabinet paper also recommends the Ardern Government “rebalance the immigration system by pursuing a lower overall volume of migrants and
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) latest Monetary Policy Statement, released yesterday, is now forecasting an earlier and steeper decline in house prices, beginning from the current quarter. This comes after the RBNZ yesterday tightened the cash rate to 1.0% with further tightening foreshadowed. Below are the key extracts with respect to New Zealand
In May last year, New Zealand’s Ardern Government vowed to end low-skilled, wage crushing migration via a “once-in-a generation” reset for New Zealand’s immigration system. It flagged a significantly smaller migration intake post-Covid that focuses on highly skilled, highly paid and productive migrants that fill genuine skills shortages. This means abolishing the current low-skilled system,
The REINZ has released its house price index for January, which recorded a 2.2% monthly decline: This follows the 1.6% decline recorded in December. Over the year, New Zealand house prices still rose by 20.5% year-on-year. Below is the key data: According to REINZ CEO Jen Baird, “compounding factors are influencing a decrease in sales
Covid-fatigued Kiwis are fast falling out of love with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The latest Roy Morgan opinion poll shows that primary support for Ardern’s Labour Government has fallen sharply: Meanwhile, support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government has surged above the Labour Greens coalition, hitting its highest level since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern
New Zealand’s unemployment rate has plummeted to 3.2%, according to Statistics NZ: The unemployment rate remained low in the last quarter of 2021, down to 3.2 percent, from 3.3 percent (revised) the previous quarter, while the underutilisation rate did not change at 9.2 percent. “The labour market continued to show the tightness we saw in
Covid-fatigued Kiwis are falling out of love with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The latest Roy Morgan opinion poll shows that primary support for Ardern’s Labour Government has fallen sharply: Meanwhile, support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition government has surged above the Labour Greens coalition, hitting its highest level since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came
New Zealand inflation has hit a three decade high, driven by both external and domestic forces, according to Statistics New Zealand: The consumers price index increased 5.9 percent from the December 2020 quarter to the December 2021 quarter, the biggest movement since a 7.6 percent annual increase in the year to the June 1990 quarter,
In October, New Zealand Prime Minister officially abandoned the country’s COVID elimination strategy, claiming the Delta variant was “a tentacle that has been incredibly hard to shake”. Yet despite New Zealand’s high vaccination rate, whereby 76% of the total population is at least double vaccinated, the isolation period for positive cases has been extended to
Earlier this month, I tipped that New Zealand’s housing market was poised for a correction after experiencing record breaking growth of 27.6% 2021, according to CoreLogic: Today, the REINZ released its house price index for December, which recorded a 1.6% monthly decline; although prices were still up 21.5% over the calendar year: The next table
