Links

16

Chart of the Day: USD rally

The overnight action of the Swiss Central Bank (CNB) effectively pegging the runaway Swiss Franc (CHF) has to be looked at in context to the USD, which is experiencing a reversal of its own. First, let’s have a look at what the CNB is fighting against: the two year plus rally of the CHF vs

8

September 7 links: Swissy flips the bird

Up: $US, Treasuries Flat: gold, energy, ore Smacked: CCI, grains,  Euro,  Aussie, metals Core relief, periphery pain: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year

17

Chart of the Day: Equity carnage

Given the events of last night (German DAX down 5.3%, UK FTSE down 3.5%, Italian MIB down 4.8%), today’s chart will be an overview of equity markets and their short term patterns. Let’s start in Europe: The Italian (remember, 7th largest economy in the world, sometimes forgotten) FTSE MIB Index is about to retrace the

19

September 6 links: European ugly

Rocket: gold Up: $US, CCI, grains, Treasuries Down: Euro,  Aussie, energy, metals Ragin’ contagion Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany

0

Chart of the Day: China and commodities

A great chart today from Data Diary, exemplifying the relative performance between commodities and China. The former is represented by the CRB Commodities Index, the latter the Shanghai Composite Index (and in the background, the talked about but not relied upon Baltic Dry Index): Here are the raw charts for comparison: As Data Diary says:

5

September 5 links: Productivity palaver

ABN Amro CEO: bank funding harder. Bloomberg European deposits fleeing to American banks. The Street Light US participation rate also falling. Calculated Risk Week ahead for the Dow. Calculated Risk China’s gold reserves. Wikileaks via Zero Hedge Yield curve can’t invert. Aleph blog Slow but not yet recession. James Hamilton That’s not Santa it’s some fat guy

28

Weekend Links: No more jobs

Rocket: gold Up: $US, CCI, metals ,grains Down: Euro,  Aussie, Treasuries,energy, “Old school” Contagion Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

6

Chart of the Day

Today’s chart is the TED spread, mentioned in today’s links by House and Holes here. And no its not the TED forum of talks, presentation and ideas (a favourite), but the difference between the 3 month interest of US Treasury bills (T-Bills) and the 3 month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). The LIBOR is the

23

August 2 links: ISM worst case – growth

Up: $US, Treasuries Flat: energy,  CCI, gold,  Aussie, Down: Euro , metals, grains Creeping core contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

18

Chart of the Day: A history of tax

After yesterday’s interesting discussion, I thought I’d bring up another taxing (sic) chart today: The first chart shows the composition of state and Federal government tax of GDP. Startingly, at Federation, tax was only 5% of total GDP (in unrelated historical fact updates, at that time, Australia was also the wealthiest nation on the planet,

3

September 1 links: Good news is bad news

Up: $US, metals Flat: energy, grains,  CCI, gold Down: Euro, Aussie, Treasuries Contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany 2

53

Chart of the Day: Taxes are all wrong

There is nothing more certain in life than death and taxes: today’s chart will focus on the latter. I consider taxation reform as the “only hope” for future productivity/microeconomic enhancements (as we’ve botched the macro as highlighted by House and Holes (and others here) regarding the MRRT and SWF), and these two charts, taken from

13

August 31 links: QE3 cometh, apparently

Up: energy, grains, metals, CCI, $US, Treasuries, gold Flat: , Euro, Aussie Contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany 2 Year

7

Chart of the Day

Today’s chart comes from SocGen via ZeroHedge, and is an analog comparison of Japanese, US and German 10 year bond yields: Remember, Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of over 200%, the Japanese Central Bank printing machine makes The Bernank look like a gold bug, yet bond yields are just above 1% and inflation

10

August 30 links: Hope springs eternal

Up: energy, grains Flat: metals, Euro, Aussie Down:  CCI, $US, Treasuries, gold Greece, Portugal burn: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

10

August 29 links: The dismal science

European banks need urgent recapitalisation: Lagarde. Telelgraph Euro-elite not happy. FT Eurobond won’t work. Wolfgang Munchau Week ahead for the Dow. Calculated Risk Business investment is actually ok in the US. Modelled behaviour Does America need manufacturing? NYT Big three point to the problem. Gavyn Davies Unions rev up against RBA. The Oz Stimulus dreaming. David Uren Dutch

91

Weekend reading: Bernanke thriller

Down: $US Up: treasuries, gold, grains, metals,  Euro, Aussie, CCI Flat: oil Greece, Portugal burn: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

4

Next Week: QE or not to QE?

The week ahead should really start tonight with Ben Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole (2am AEST). But looking past the market volatility, earnings reports and more – what’s coming up next week? Locally, housing data will be key with new home sales, building approvals and RP Data house price figures released. Earnings season winds down,

5

Chart of the Day

I’ll switch back to housing today, where I thought it would be interesting to show the long term run of house prices for the US, both in nominal and real (adjusted for inflation) terms. The chart comes from JParsons blog: And for a longer term comparison (adjusted for inflation only) using the S&P/Case-Shiller Index (this

2

August 26 links: Waiting for Bernanke

Up: $US Flat: Treasuries, gold, grains, metals, energy, Euro, Aussie Down:  CCI Greece, Portugal burn: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year

15

Chart of the Day

Today’s chart comes via Cameron Murray’s blog post on savings and investment, which was prompted by a discussion started at Econompic. This chart shows the household savings rate for several developed countries – note how high and stable the German households saving’s rate is and how the UK (like Australia) dipped into negative territory. The

5

August 25 links: Politics trumps policy

Crash: gold Down: Treasuries Flat: $US, grains, metals, energy, Euro, Aussie Down:  CCI Greece, Portugal accident: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10

31

Chart of the Day

With gold down some 3% overnight, today’s chart puts the current run in context, deflating the historical gold price using Shadow Stats instead of US government inflation figures: With all the talk of a runaway bubble in gold, its interesting to see that by true purchasing power, gold still may have a long way to

2

August 24 links: Bad news is good news once more

Monstered: gold, $US, Treasuries Up: grains, metals, CRB, energy, Euro, Aussie Mixed contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany 2

4

Chart of the day: Subterranean bond yields

Today’s chart of the US 10 year Treasury Note (T-note) is simple and stark and comes from Colin Twiggs new daily blog, which captures his Trading Diary sent to Incredible Charts subscribers*. Colin states the risk in the long term bull market in bonds quite clearly: A “bond market revolt” is a general sell-off of Treasurys

10

August 23 links: Ben dines with Muammar

To the moon: gold Up: $US, grains,metals, CRB, energy Flat: Euro, Aussie Down: Treasuries Periphery contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5

9

Chart of the Day

Today’s (late) temperature rising chart is from Jesse’s Cafe Americain blog (via NYT and the Globe), explaining the US government debt, who it’s owed to and how it got there. The problem with the debt is not necessarily the size, nor how the rating agencies judge its tenor, but as Jesse rightly puts it: No,

5

August 22 links: Libyan hope

Fighting erupts in Tripoli. WSJ, FT What will Bernanke say? Calculated Risk, FT, Gavyn Davies US growth and earnings. Zero Hedge US rail traffic flat. PragCap Profits of doom miss the mark. SMH LOL More bank discounts. The Age Here comes the manufacturing ‘crisis’. The Oz Hooray! Get ye to the Pilbara you bludgers. The Oz (Being sarcastic) The ‘natural’

25

Weekend Links: Another rough night

To the moon:  gold Up: grains,metals, CRB ,energy Flat: Treasuries, Euro, Aussie Down: $US Core contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France

11

August 19: Disastrous data

Rockets: Treasuries, $US, gold Smacked: Euro,  Aussie, grains, metals, CRB Thunderstruck:  energy Ragin’ contagion: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Germany