Macro morning

Macro Re-cap With the Fed Reserve taking away the punchbowl on further stimulus, and no further cuts to interest rates from the ECB overnight, markets were spooked by the very poor Spanish bond results. The auction – in an “extremely difficult” time according to Spanish PM Rajoy, was not very successful, getting just over the


Chart of the Day: what CPI will RBA not cut?

After the hoopla of yesterday’s non-decision by the RBA to hold rates steady (but tilting towards a May cut, waiting on the CPI print), today’s chart comes from Mark the Graph: As he says regarding the speculation around the May cut (emphasis added): This leads to the obvious question, what is the threshold print that


Morning Macro

Overnight News and Data Releases All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes (reported here by Houses and Holes), but beforehand, the European Union released its monthly Producer Price Index (PPI). Consensus was looking for only a 0.5% rise, but it came in at 0.6%, with year-on-year also higher than expected at 3.6%.


Data for the Week

A big week in local data, as all eyes are on the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) to either hold or cut rates at its meeting on Tuesday, with February’s retail trade figures released earlier on that day and international trade figures on Wednesday on must-watch list too. Its PMI – purchasing managers index –


Weekend Charts

Here’s a selection of charts I’ve found around the web this week that I think are interesting: First, from Mark Graph’s blog on interest rates, showing the OCR/Interbank rate and the swaps that traders/insto’s used to bet on direction of future interest rates. Note how wrong they got it last month – will this repeat


Links 22nd March: … and then Spain

Markets: Up: USD , gold , CRB , Treasuries Down: Stocks , energies, euro, Aussie Flat: ore Sovereign Yields: Greece 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Portugal 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Ireland 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Spain 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Italy 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year Belgium 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year France 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year


March 19 Links: Bond…rising bond

Global Macro A healthy rise in Global yields Gavyn Davies The Bond anomaly has gone away BusinessInsider Shock and oil voxeu .. Europe to get another kickin’ ? Oil’s spare capacity is almost gone Gregor.US Apple as hegemonic swarm Ultimi Barbarorum Why all of the sudden fuss about the Squid? Washington Post … They’ve been doing it for


Data for the Week

With the Greek default over (and Kyle Bass making another billion or three), its another big week for local and international data, but it gets off to a slow start. In Australia, housing finances will be closely scrutinised as the “Houses” 50% of the economy drives the rest. Further afield, the international data is US


Data for the Week

With the local corporate earnings season over, its another big week for local and international data, to say the least. In Australia, results will pivot around the employment figures on Thursday, released after the RBA meets on Tuesday, with most pundits betting the Reserve Bank will hold interest rates. National Accounts data will round out


Data for the Week

Amidst the corporate earnings season ramp up, another important week for local data, with home loan finance today literally connected to the unemployment rate figures coming out Thursday. The big reporters this week are Commonwealth Bank (CBA) alongside Fortescue (FMG) on Wednesday, with Qantas (QAN) and Wesfarmers (WES) on Thursday amongst several small and mid-size


Data for the Week

Amidst the corporate earnings season ramp up, this is a very important week for local data, the highlight the RBA’s Meeting and expected cut in interest rates on Tuesday. A small cut of 25 basis points (100 basis points = 1%) is the most likely outcome according to the punditry. Other important local data includes


Chart of the Day: Peak oil

Today’s chart comes from Gregor.US and offers a glimpse of global oil production at a seeming peak: Today, in 2012, I observe that many analysts of global oil production—and the interaction between oil prices and the global economy—continue to engage in a guessing game about the future. But, frankly, the future has already arrived. And it


Data for the Week

The local corporate earnings season officially starts today, with GUD and Oil Search kicking off the ASX200 companies. This will turn into an avalanche of reports as February rolls on. A reminder to foreign MacroBusiness readers that Australia Day will be celebrated on Thursday locally as a public holiday. The focus on local data will


Summer Reading: Top charts for 2011

Today’s Summer Reading collates the most interesting and provoking charts posted on MacroBusiness throughout 2011: First we have Rumplestatskin’s chart comprising the real (adjusted for inlation) after tax – RAT – returns on term deposits for Australian investors, showing have savers have been punished for over 10 years: As The Unconventional Economist shows, this secular


Chart of the Day: Wine beats Stocks

Today’s chart comes from ASXIQ, who has proven the thesis that it is better to drink wine than give your money to index hugging fund managers, at least since 2004 against the broader All Ordinaries Index: The details – the “wine” is the Liv-Ex Fine Wine 100 Index, where Australian wines have almost no weighting.


Summer Reading: The Editor’s Pick

The “Editor’s Pick” distills the nearly 3000 posts made on MacroBusiness in 2011 (2977 as of December 28) into a long, but core list of around 40 articles across the main categories and issues that we cover. For newcomers, this is a great introduction to MB and a trip down memory lane for our growing


Summer Reading: The most popular posts of 2011

During the Christmas and New Years break, MacroBusiness will be opening the vault to discover the best dressed, most popular and interesting posts of 2011. According to our regular and irregular commenting crowd, here are the 10 most popular articles posted on MacroBusiness this year. The main themes that dominated were mining, then the carbon


Chart of the Day: US unemployment falls

Today’s chart comes from Calculated Risk again and on the back of last nights excellent housing starts number which has ignited the long awaited Santa Rally, examines the current US unemployment rate, vs. the recession high: Obviously there has been aggregate improvement in the number, although this is the underreported U-3 measure, not the realistic


Chart of the Day: Return to normalcy

Today’s charts comes from a recent BBC News collection of “top economists” favourite charts. I’ve selected two that resonate. The first is from Vicky Pryce, FTI Consulting and essentially charts how the breakdown of the EU is just a return to normalcy, as 10 year bond yields go back to pre-EU integration levels, reflecting the


This Week’s Data

It’s another very important week locally and international for data and announcements. Locally, household data in the form of monthly change in home loans on Monday and aggregate household finance statistics on Thursday must be closely watched, following the 25 basis points (0.25%) interest rate by the RBA earlier this month. Internationally, following the latest


Rumple Reflections

Homelessness figures revised down by half.  Goodbye housing shortage. And when you think about it, reliably estimating this figure was always going to be a challenge. The rise of on-screen hugs. Once upon a time it shocked viewers and made news headlines if someone broke into tears on television. Wisdom of the crowd is actually


Chart of the Day: US unemployment woes

Today’s chart comes from ShadowStats (h/t Velociraptor), and documents the change in unemployment since the GFC. Similarly to the ABS, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has an interesting methodology in compiling its measures of unemployment, which has narrowed over time. The broadest and most publicised measure is the U-3, when in fact U-6, which includes short-term


Chart of the Day: Euro probability

Today’s chart effectively sums up the Euro crisis in a fairly easy to understand flowchart and comes from Pictet’s Christophe Donay (via ZeroHedge): Although it doesn’t provide a probable timeline, the chart is illustrative, if a little optimistic in my opinion of the weighted probabilities. A fiscal union – the logical choice, but a cultural


Introducing China links

Welcome to a new MB feature, courtesy of the linkage prowess of the blogger Sinocism. We will be reproducing these exceptional Chinese links daily before lunch time: Ex-Motorola Engineer Stole Trade Secrets for Chinese Company, U.S. Says – Bloomberg – An ex-Motorola Inc. software engineer should be found guilty of stealing trade secrets from the company


Chart of the Day: Gold stalls

Like all other risk assets, gold (in USD per ounce) has rallied since the late October low, moving from $1600 to nearly $1800 an ounce. Today’s chart shows a likely repeat of the September rebound move from the August correction in gold, as it hits significant psychological resistance at $1800 USD per ounce: A technical


Chart of the Day: S&P500 and Goldman

Continuining again our focus on the US S&P500 stock index, today’s chart come from Goldman Sachs (via Zero Hedge): This chart says a 1000 words, but for those not sure what’s going on, its seems the ca. 1.5% cut to US GDP coming next year (courtesy of austerity), has been priced in the consensus forward


The Qantas challenge

I don’t have a particularly strong view on Qantas (and neither does anyone else at MB). And beyond the obvious, that it’s a contest between the forces of globalisation and local employment (with the usual texture of overpaid executives versus insecure workers thrown in) I don’t have much to add. However the dispute has obviously


Chart of the Day: Euro M1 uptick

The European Central Bank (ECB) has updated its monetary aggregrate data for September and it makes interesting reading after the Greek bailout package announced yesterday. As Delusional Economics forewarned in September, the narrow M1 money supply trend remains extremely weak: Although there has been a minute uptick in M1, M3 has also picked up, but


Chart of the day: Seasonal investing

A fascinating long term study by EconomPic, building on a similar study done by The Big Picture on the seasonality of investing in US equities. The old adage, “sell in May and go away (until November)” seems to have empirical validity. Look below for my study on Australian stock prices. Using S&P data from Professor Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance


Chart of the Day: Driving through recession

Today’s chart comes from Doug Short, and visualises the US Dept of Transportation figures on traffic volume. Like electricity usage, the number of kilometres (or miles for the US) driven per capita is a good indication of economic strength that cannot be filtered through the murky lens of GDP composition and hedonic reductionism. Clearly, when