Iron ore price

From the World Steel Association today: World crude steel production for the 65 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 137 million tonnes (Mt) in April 2014, an increase of 1.7% compared to April 2013.

Both FMG and RIO got smashed to new lows this morning:   However, Dalian iron ore futures up 1% this afternoon at 708 and that has both miners recovering losses.

Find below a terrific little note from NAB giving a potted history of the Chinese steel sector.

A nice piece of analysis at FXStreet has caught my eye and helps explain argument I’ve been making since Q3 last year, that the end of Q’14 was going to bring trouble for iron ore.

Here are the iron ore charts for May 20, 2014: No let up.

From Reuters today: Teekay Shipping took part in Australian government-sponsored mediation talks on Tuesday to avert industrial action by tugboat operators that could halt a quarter of global seaborne iron ore exports.

From the AFR: …18 brokers recommend buying the stock while just one, Goldman Sachs, think clients should sell it… …Rio Tinto has 15 brokers calling the stock a buy, while just five have a ‘hold’ rating and no broker thinks it’s an outright sell.

FMG is powering today, up 4%, but the news in China ain’t so good.

China’s Dalian futures are down another half a percent so far today but miners are catching a break since 11.30 when the dollar was hit.

When I was writing at Business Spectator I spent a lot of time bewailing the incredible lack of iron ore expertise in Australian media and policy circles.

The iron ore spot price fell another 2.2% yesterday to $98.50: Dalian futures were down similarly at 707 yuan, a new record low:   Rebar futures were down and the Baltic Dry capesize component fell 2%.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Reuters has a good piece today from Andy Home: The existence of a magic number below which the price of iron ore cannot sustainably stay is widely accepted, although there are as many magic numbers as there are analysts.

Dalian futures have opened up another 2% down today and that’s got the bulls feeling equities.

Here are the iron ore charts for May 16,2014: It’s all going to shit!

Indian iron ore is a real schmozzle.

From the SMH: …According to the latest data compiled by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, short sellers appear to be circling Atlas rather than their traditional target in times of iron ore weakness, Fortescue.

The great unreported corporate story of our time – the travails of Fortescue Metals Group – goes on.

From the ABC: The first railway tracks have been laid at Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill project in the Pilbara in northern Western Australia.

From the AFR: Chanos, one of the most prominent China bears, told The Australian Financial Review there was a “clear downturn” in the Chinese real estate market that would affect Australia as demand for iron ore fell.

Here are the iron ore charts for May 15, 2014: Paper markets are weak or weaker with 12 month swaps struggling to get above $100, Dalian 6 month hanging at record lows and, most importantly for the future, rebar futures plumbing record depths daily.

Capital Economics has more today on the brewing global steel trade war: A sharp increase in US steel imports from Asia in the first quarter serves to highlight the overcapacity and overproduction of Asia’s steel industries.