Iron ore price

Iron ore prices for May 10, 2016: Tianjin benchmark fell another -2.5% to $54.20.

Great article here from Bloomie has it exactly right: What started as a logical bet — that China’s economic stimulus and industrial reforms would lead to shortages of construction materials — quickly morphed into a full-blown commodities frenzy with little bearing on reality.

Iron ore charts for May 9, 2016: The bust is here with Tianjin benchmark falling -3.6% to $55.50. Paper is aflame. Rebar average (that is, actual steel not futures) is very obviously going to collapse.

It’s a rich vein of stupid that runs through the mining sector right now.

The rather amusing Australian Budget is about to become more hysterical as Dalian has opened limit down after Friday night’s spurious jump and the weekend’s bad trade data as well as surging port inventories.

From Mac Bank: Conclusions  Firstly, there is the obvious one.

The Australian Treasury.

From Forexlive: For Q2 2016, Goldman Sachs has hiked their price forecast by 47% to $55 / metric ton Q3 2016 forecast up 20% to $45 Q4 2016 +14% to to $40 Full year estimate is 19% higher to $47 a ton 2017 & 2018 forecasts have been left unchanged at $35 That means a 2016/17 Budget average of $38.75CFR.

The iron ore futures markets are showing every sign that they are in the early stages of bursting bubbles.

Iron ore charts for May 5, 2016: Tianjin benchmark spot tumbled 2.5% to $59.50.

It’s hope time today on the ASX after yesterday’s shellacking as Dalian falls another -3% but big iron hangs on.

From The Australian comes David Einhorn who is not going to join the Australian Government any time soon: The founder of Greenlight Capital is downbeat on $US43 billion mining equipment maker Caterpillar, he told the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, a forum for investors to present their best ideas.

From UBS: Brazil’s federal prosecution have announced US$43bn claim against Samarco Proceedings against Samarco have been commenced by the Brazilian Federal prosecutor, for a claim of BRL155bn (US$43bn at BRL 3.60) in relation to the impacts to the economy and environment, resulting from the Nov 2015 tailings dam failure at Samarco.

A few weeks ago from the Office of the Chief Economist at the Department of Industry which feeds its iron ore forecasts directly into the Budget: India is projected to transition from being a net exporter of iron ore in 2014 to importing 46 million tonnes of iron ore in 2021.

Iron ore price charts for May 4, 2016: Tianjin benchmark spot fell another 2.4% to $61.

Oh dear, from Bloomie: Brazilian prosecutors filed a 155 billion reais ($44 billion) civil suit against Vale SA, BHP Billiton Ltd.

Iron ore charts for April 3, 2016: Tianjin spot tumbled -4.1% to $62.50.

From Credit Suisse: Futures bubble argument looks flawed Our team has been positive but cautious since March, but is now trending increasingly towards the latter view that there is real demand driving the steel prices, and steel is leading iron ore.

Courtesy of UBS comes an informative Q&A with a Chinese steel trader: Q: What is the outlook for Chinese steel prices & production?

Iron ore charts for April 29, 2016: The Tianjin benchmark iron ore price jumped to $65.20 Friday tracking mad Dalian which was limit up all day.

From the FT: China’s army of retail investors has been warned off speculative trading in commodity futures as officials attempt to quash what looks to be the country’s latest market bubble.

Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves is back via The Oz: “Jimmy Wilson was fired,’’ Mr Goncalves said.