Global Macro


Are we past the Trump nadir?

DXY rebounded last night: AUD fell against it but rise against EUR: It fell against EMs: Gold held at the highs: Brent held at the lows: Base metals are still rising for no apparent reason: EM stocks took off: High yield too: US yields rose: And European, especially Italy: Stocks soared: Welcome to the Trump


Trump fires a fall guy, now what?

DXY fell Friday night: AUD was up against DMs: But down against EMs: Gold was up a bit: Brent roared as the US rig count fell: Base metals were mixed: EM stocks firmed: High yield was mixed: Big miners stable: US yield edged up: Not European: Stocks edged down: The White House conflict is over


Unemployment and the bullshit work-ethic

By Gavin R Putland Some else wants to do your job. So why does it matter if you do it? In a logical world, if you don’t do your day job, your idleness imposes a loss on the rest of us. In the real world – where the official involuntary unemployment rate is rarely less


When will the Fed end the business cycle?

Via Citi’s chief global strategist, Matt King: Markets seem optimistic that central bank plans to modestly reduce their support for markets in coming months can be achieved without disruption. We are not convinced. When other people’s children behave badly, the temptation is to presume it’s something to do with the parents. But then one day,


Is Skynet really coming for our jobs?

Cross-posted from Independent Australia: It’s almost scary to think that the world as we know it may well be run by Artificial Intelligence (AI) one day. While the risk of an imminent AI disruption of the labour market may sound like a fantasy, those with the most advanced AI technologies at hand think that AI


Commodities blast off as oil saves a day

DXY rebounded last night: AUD rose against DMs: Gold fell: Brent roared back on OPEC jawboning: Base metals rocketed. Copper broke out: Big miners flew: EM stocks tried but failed: As high yield rightly yawned: US yields jumped and the curve steepened: Same in Europe: And stocks hit record highs again in the US: OPEC jawboned.


Well done, RBA, you now have the hottest currency on the planet

It’s congratulations all around as Australia’s failing post-mining boom adjustment takes another blow today from the hottest currency on the planet. Against DMs it is on fire: Against EMs it is on fire: Gold has nothing on the Aussie: Though oil pretended everything is OK for now: Base metals fell: Big miners eased: EM stocks


Global car sales drive into ditch

Via Macquarie: Solid June and 1H for global car sales but market slowing  Global car sales are important driver of commodity demand, especially PGMs. They continued to see YoY growth in June, and recorded a solid 1H, if not as strong as in 2016. We expect a further slowdown in 2H 2017 and 2018,


Markets soar with the Yellen dove

The AUD powers on against DMs:   Though lost ground against EMs: Gold caught a bid: Brent did not: Base metals rose: Big miners jumped: EM stocks soared: As high yield was bid again: And US bonds: European spreads collapsed: And stocks moonshot: Enter the Yellen dove: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Chairman


Bond bears versus policy error

Markets were roughly stable last night. The AUD firmed against USD and was stable against EUR: It was mixed against EM: Gold arrested it’s fall: Brent too: Base metals were mixed: Big miners up and the downtrend is broken for now: EM stocks rebounded: And high yield: Plus Treasuries caught a bid: Everywhere actually: And


We’re all bond bears now

Ray Dalio is: Central Banks’ Reversals Signal the End of One Era and the Beginning of Another For the last nine years, central banks drove interest rates to nil and pumped money into the system creating favorable carries and abundant cash. These actions pushed up asset prices, drove nominal interest rates below nominal growth rates,


Uhlmann vs Bolt on the G19

Apparently this ABC Insiders video hasbeen well-reived in the US: What did we learn about @realDonaldTrump at this #G20? @CUhlmann explains. #Insiders — Insiders ABC (@InsidersABC) July 8, 2017 That pretty much sums it up for me. The loon pond answers via Andrew Bolt: Sounds plausible, if you forget who Trump replaced. Didn’t Russia


US jobs solid but no cigar

US jobs were out Friday night and came in ahead of expectations: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining. …The change in total nonfarm