Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

While all local eyes were on the RBA, which made its first move in interest rates in three years, the region was focused on macro issues particularly trade with all the action in bond markets as traders remain jittery. The USD is still weak after the recent reversal with the Yuan fix remaining steady, the

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What stocks to buy for new rate cut cycle

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: We have just published our latest thoughts on global style rotation and its implications for Australian stocks. The US yield curve has meaningfully inverted. 80% of the time, this foreshadows a recession around the corner. Mechanically, it means that investors are starting to price in rate cuts. Our US

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Wall Street was all over the place last night after European markets improved following a dour start to the week here in Asia. Tech stocks dragged the NASDAQ down significantly as regulatory issues surrounded the sector, while most industrials slipped on ongoing trade concerns as Tariff Trump had tea with the Queen.

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Macro Afternoon

Following the ugly finish to last week on risk markets around the world, a new month and season hasn’t seen any fresh starts here in Asia as shares extend their slide across the region. Risks are mounting in every direction, with trade concerns doubling down on Trump’s Mexican tariffs and ongoing Brexit saga while slowing economic

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Macro Afternoon

An ugly finish to the week here in Asia as share markets tumble in the wake of Trump’s Mexican tariffs and the growing discord in North Korea and the Chinese trade talks. It’s all about safe haven buying including Yen, gold, Bitcoin and Bunds. The Shanghai Composite has closed below the critical 2900 point level in the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stock markets were a little calmer overnight as the US GDP print came in strong as expected, although revised a little lower. The big mover was DOE oil inventories which were much larger than expected, sending crude prices at least 4% lower. The USD remained firm against the majors as the Australian

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets remain on the backfoot can continue to follow the risk-off mood with falls across the region as the USD remains strong against all the majors, except the Australian dollar which has remained resilient despite a slew of bad economic prints today. The Shanghai Composite has closed 0.3% lower but is still clinging

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment is now in a very poor place with further falls on both sides of the Atlantic overnight, the S&P500 critically falling below the key 2800 point support level as European stocks reacted negatively to the uptick in German unemployment. The USD was stronger against most of the majors, although the

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are on the backfoot following the dour return of Wall Street overnight with falls across the region as the USD regains against all the majors, with safe haven buying in Yen the biggest move as the Australian dollar teeters on edge. The Shanghai Composite is the only standout, up slightly to 2914 points,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Traders in the US didn’t like the long weekend break despite a lift in local consumer confidence with tensions over the ongoing trade dispute with China causing much angst. The USD was all over the place, firmest against European currencies while the Aussie dollar tread water, but commodities like gold, oil and copper

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are gaining in confidence despite the lack of a lead from a closed Wall Street overnight with the USD slipping against all the majors, as the PBOC let the Yuan weaken again today. With Wall Street and The City reopening tonight there should be extra volatility and opportunity available! The Shanghai Composite

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  With the long weekend at hand in the US and UK markets closed as well, the focus was on the European continent as markets reacted to the EU parliamentary elections. While the Brexit Party got a big hold, the populists and nationalists didn’t fare as feared, helping lift sentiment. Yesterday saw Asian stock

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have started the week in a generally upbeat mood, save for the ASX200 which finished with a scratch session due to a bounceback in the Australian dollar. The Trump-ABe meeting hasn’t produced any gaffes while the latest Chinese industrial profits result was a lot lower than expected, it had almost no impact

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Macquarie goes all in on housing recovery

Via Macquarie equities: “multiple catalysts [have] improved the domestic growth outlook”. “With positive housing catalysts in the last week, we are more confident housing will improve in 2019.” “Based on an average of 6 months, we could see month-on-month house price rises as early as July 2019.” “This should flow through to better growth in

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MS: Trade war gunna crash markets

Authored by Michael Zezas, Chief Public Policy strategist at Morgan Stanley: Investors are obsessed, trying to figure out what happens next in the US/China trade dispute. Will the US call China? What do the negotiators really think? Does this last three weeks or three months? Our answer: you could be starting with the wrong questions. First, let’s look

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Why Horseman Global got belted

Via Zero Hedge: Unfortunately for Horseman investors, in April the fund suffered a 12.23% drop as the market melted up just ahead of Trump’s renewed trade and tech war on Beijing and Huawei. The drop was the second worst month in the hedge fund’s history after it lost 12.73% in September 2011, when the market

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  With the long weekend at hand in the US, risk markets on Friday night finished the week in a slightly upbeat mood, more in relief than in actual rebirth of the former risk rally. Concerns over the US trade war with China, the potential shooting war with Iran, the chaos in the

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Macro Afternoon

Finally a better day on Asian share markets with mixed results to finish the week, as risk sentiment remains very cautious. The USD is falling slightly against the major currencies with gold in particular moving higher while the Australian dollar remaining below 69 cents. The Shanghai Composite barely moved and finished at 2853 points, while the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets have shown their hand with the “Sell in May” popular crowd working their magic on Wall Street overnight as the US/China trade war heats up over Huawei again. Stock markets fell between 1-2% on both sides of the Atlantic, while oil prices cratered over 5% and currency markets finally found some

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Macro Afternoon

Not a happy day on Asian share markets with a sea of red across the board, as risk sentiment remains very cautious with no good news emanating from the US/China trade war. All the major currencies are on the defensive against King Dollar, with the Aussie hovering at its recent lows while Pound Sterling has

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are swinging from caution to optimism and back again with US/China trade tensions running high and pulling back any nascent bounce on stocks overnight. The latest Fed minutes had a minor impact on bond yields which fell slightly, while currencies remained relatively calm as the Australian dollar stayed under 69

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Macro Afternoon

So far its been a neutral day for risk markets here in Asia as traders weigh up the potential volatility around the ongoing trade war between the US and China while locally a slew of bad economic news has firmed expectations of a rate cut by the RBA as the Australian dollar remains depressed agianst

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US/China trade tensions are subsiding this time, with US stocks lifting overnight alongside bond yields while the USD remained firm, not withstanding a spike due to the latest OECD Economic Outlook. Commodity prices remain relatively calm during this whole mess although gold is sitting on a monthly low. Yesterday saw Asian stock markets bounce

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are generally positive or putting in mild scratch sessions with Japanese stocks ending the day slightly lower after the US seemingly eases up on sanctions against Huawei. Risk sentiment is swinging back to positive while USD remains very firm as the Australian dollar rolls over below its pre-Monday morning gap. The Shanghai

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US/China trade tensions are spiking again, this time on the hullabaloo around Huawei with tech stocks sinking overnight, dragging down industrials and taking away most of any remaining risk confidence. Interest rate and currency markets were more benign but the USD remains firm across all undollars, with the Australian dollar rolling over post

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed session to start the week here in Asia, although dead cat’s are bouncing and rolling over here and there, the local market is soaring due to the pro-bank and pro-mining party getting voted in over the weekend. The Australian dollar is also on a tear post the election, although still remains below 70

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ASX surges on Coalition victory

There’s nothing like a pro-business government to send stocks surging: The ASX 200 index has surged 1.3% on morning trade, driven by big rises in financials, which together have risen around 5%: I put the rally down to the retention of negative gearing and the existing capital gains tax discount, which is bullish for both