Australian Shares

29

Macquarie goes all in on housing recovery

Via Macquarie equities: “multiple catalysts [have] improved the domestic growth outlook”. “With positive housing catalysts in the last week, we are more confident housing will improve in 2019.” “Based on an average of 6 months, we could see month-on-month house price rises as early as July 2019.” “This should flow through to better growth in

5

MS: Trade war gunna crash markets

Authored by Michael Zezas, Chief Public Policy strategist at Morgan Stanley: Investors are obsessed, trying to figure out what happens next in the US/China trade dispute. Will the US call China? What do the negotiators really think? Does this last three weeks or three months? Our answer: you could be starting with the wrong questions. First, let’s look

2

Why Horseman Global got belted

Via Zero Hedge: Unfortunately for Horseman investors, in April the fund suffered a 12.23% drop as the market melted up just ahead of Trump’s renewed trade and tech war on Beijing and Huawei. The drop was the second worst month in the hedge fund’s history after it lost 12.73% in September 2011, when the market

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  With the long weekend at hand in the US, risk markets on Friday night finished the week in a slightly upbeat mood, more in relief than in actual rebirth of the former risk rally. Concerns over the US trade war with China, the potential shooting war with Iran, the chaos in the

62

Macro Afternoon

Finally a better day on Asian share markets with mixed results to finish the week, as risk sentiment remains very cautious. The USD is falling slightly against the major currencies with gold in particular moving higher while the Australian dollar remaining below 69 cents. The Shanghai Composite barely moved and finished at 2853 points, while the

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets have shown their hand with the “Sell in May” popular crowd working their magic on Wall Street overnight as the US/China trade war heats up over Huawei again. Stock markets fell between 1-2% on both sides of the Atlantic, while oil prices cratered over 5% and currency markets finally found some

64

Macro Afternoon

Not a happy day on Asian share markets with a sea of red across the board, as risk sentiment remains very cautious with no good news emanating from the US/China trade war. All the major currencies are on the defensive against King Dollar, with the Aussie hovering at its recent lows while Pound Sterling has

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are swinging from caution to optimism and back again with US/China trade tensions running high and pulling back any nascent bounce on stocks overnight. The latest Fed minutes had a minor impact on bond yields which fell slightly, while currencies remained relatively calm as the Australian dollar stayed under 69

58

Macro Afternoon

So far its been a neutral day for risk markets here in Asia as traders weigh up the potential volatility around the ongoing trade war between the US and China while locally a slew of bad economic news has firmed expectations of a rate cut by the RBA as the Australian dollar remains depressed agianst

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US/China trade tensions are subsiding this time, with US stocks lifting overnight alongside bond yields while the USD remained firm, not withstanding a spike due to the latest OECD Economic Outlook. Commodity prices remain relatively calm during this whole mess although gold is sitting on a monthly low. Yesterday saw Asian stock markets bounce

57

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are generally positive or putting in mild scratch sessions with Japanese stocks ending the day slightly lower after the US seemingly eases up on sanctions against Huawei. Risk sentiment is swinging back to positive while USD remains very firm as the Australian dollar rolls over below its pre-Monday morning gap. The Shanghai

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US/China trade tensions are spiking again, this time on the hullabaloo around Huawei with tech stocks sinking overnight, dragging down industrials and taking away most of any remaining risk confidence. Interest rate and currency markets were more benign but the USD remains firm across all undollars, with the Australian dollar rolling over post

90

Macro Afternoon

A mixed session to start the week here in Asia, although dead cat’s are bouncing and rolling over here and there, the local market is soaring due to the pro-bank and pro-mining party getting voted in over the weekend. The Australian dollar is also on a tear post the election, although still remains below 70

14

ASX surges on Coalition victory

There’s nothing like a pro-business government to send stocks surging: The ASX 200 index has surged 1.3% on morning trade, driven by big rises in financials, which together have risen around 5%: I put the rally down to the retention of negative gearing and the existing capital gains tax discount, which is bullish for both

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  On Friday afternoon I suggested we were seeing an alignment of dead cat bounces across risk markets – a clowder if you will – and Friday night saw US markets rollover as the USD spiked higher against almost everything. Overshadowed by the Scomo victory here locally, US/China trade tensions are as high

86

Macro Afternoon

Dead cat’s are bouncing everywhere as tensions between China and US ramp up again, with The Middle Kingdom complaining about the “little tricks”, sending Chinese stocks down and futures cratering for tonight’s open and close to the week. The upcoming federal election in Australia hasn’t dampened the risk appetite locally, helped along by a much

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Positive sentiment on risk markets is accelerating with some big advances on European markets matched by near 1% lifts across Wall Street overnight. A solid US housing starts figure plus more hawkish Fed speak saw the USD rise against almost everything, with the Australian dollar now down in the 68’s. Yesterday the

71

Macro Afternoon

The bounceback is getting a bit wobbly here in Asia with confidence not returning in full as expected. Japanese stocks are down while Chinese bourses are treading water, as local stocks are bid as the Australian dollar falls in the wake of a “surprise” lift in unemployment. The Shanghai Composite is floating along here, currently

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Sentiment was mixed overnight with stocks rising, but some disappointing US economic data pushed bond yields and risk currencies lower, Pound Sterling in particular pushed down to a new monthly low. The latest DOE oil inventory report saw a jump in crude prices while Bitcoin remained over $8000USD. Yesterday the Shanghai Composite has bounced

60

Macro Afternoon

The bounce continues here in Asia with stocks up across the board while currency markets are steady as the USD firms. The trifecta of Chinese internal economic releases came in lower than expected but this was overshadowed by the PBOC cutting the Yuan fix again to its lowest point since January, as the trade war

5

Sell in May and go away?

The BofaML fundie survey was out overnight and as always makes great reading: • Investors are well-hedged but not positioned for a trade deal breakdown, and the full “risk-off”…rising recession risks, Fed cuts, GT10 <2%, SPX <2600, CNY >7. • FMS #1 tail risk = “trade war”…no surprise given survey taken May 3rd-9th; but trade

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Sentiment seemed to improve overnight with a bounceback in risk assets, with Wall Street closing about 1% higher although the USD firmed across the board. Treasury yields lifted slightly, but the chance of the Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of the year rose as well, now a near certainty as

37

Macro Afternoon

Not the bath of blood that the media (and me!) expected with the continued fallout from the US/China trade war hitting risk markets across Asia, but with some reservation from the bears. The PBOC moved the Yuan sharply lower against USD, the weakest all year while Yen stopped firming against USD. The Shanghai Composite is

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  It’s all tumbling down as the Chinese retaliate with tariffs of their own against Trump’s ill-timed tweetery. Wall Street fell around 3% across the board while bond yields fell, with safe havens soaring. Gold has breached $1300USD per ounce for the first time in two months, while Bitcoin is up nearly $1000

42

Macro Afternoon

With no progress to report on the US/China trade talks and Trump thankfully still asleep (or his staffer’s have taken away his iPhone) there haven’t been any catalysts to upset markets on the open here in Asia today. The Yuan is depreciating sharply due to the PBOC trying to head off the tariffs while Yen

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment is still mixed and despite Trump raising tariffs, the trade negotiations are continuing, leading to a near bifurcation in direction in Asian and non-Asian stock markets. US stocks finished the week on a solid note, while European bourses also advanced as the latest US CPI print came in as expected.

50

Macro Afternoon

The tide may be changing with Chinese stocks rebounding to finish the week on a sweeter rather than sour note as optimism around the trade talks with the US climbs. The Australian dollar is inching its way back to the 70 cent level while Yen and other safe havens remain stable. The Shanghai Composite has

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment remained sour overnight as the deadline for new tariffs on Chinese goods to the US is rapidly approaching. European shares fell sharply while US stocks slipped with a little bit of hope as bond yields didn’t fall as fast as expected. The USD remains a little weaker against the majors,

64

Macro Afternoon

The risk off sentiment is growing with Asian share markets falling across the board, except locally, as the USDJPY pair hits a three month low. Its all about how Trump can keep his mouth shut during the upcoming US/China talks, although news of another missile launch in North Korea is adding to the volatility. The

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are stabilising, somewhat, as the US/China trade war concerns ease slightly as Chinese trade officials arrive in the ‘States. Treasury yields are up slightly while the USD has retreated against most undollars, although Pound Sterling is falling sharply and the Australian dollar remains under 70 cents. Looking at Asian markets