Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A volatile night on currency markets as the ECB cut rates and restarted its QE program in the face of a continental recession and Brexit concerns. Stocks rose mildly in response however, while bond yields are weirdly higher, including Euro! Oil prices fell back again while gold was largely unchanged, but remained

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Macro Afternoon

The risk on mood has increased here in Asia with solid rises across most stock markets, although locally the ASX200 is dragging its feet. This is all due to the delay in Chinese tariffs, with bond yields rising and oil prices still under pressure post-Bolton “firing”. The Shanghai Composite is making a comeback, currently up

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The positive mood is quickening with overnight markets reacting to the upside on US-China trade talks with US Treasury yields hitting a one month high. The firing of NSA John Bolton saw oil price drop, plus talk of easing of sanctions on Iran, while US PPI inflation figures were upbeat, lifting USD

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Macro Afternoon

Its been a more upbeat mood here in Asia compared to overnight markets with everything outside China moving higher. Gold is trying to consolidate below $1500USD per ounce while the Aussie dollar has spiked following a rally in bank stocks as all eyes focus on the ECB’s upcoming meeting. The Shanghai Composite is the exception

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Momo crushed

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Overnight, US 10-year bond yields surged by another 9bps. Over the past 5 days, bond yields have risen by almost 30bps. Catalysts for the bond sell off include reports of German fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, and a more conciliatory tone to US-China trade negotiations. We cannot also help

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Another mixed night on equity markets at least with currency markets stabilising going into tomorrow nights ECB meeting, with bonds selling off on the possibility of a cooling trade war with China. A possible hot war with Iran is likely to be averted as National Security Advisor John Bolton got the tweet

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Macro Afternoon

While the usual safe havens are weaker, Asian share markets are still quite mixed with Chinese markets and their satellites falling back, while the Japanese bourses seemed decoupled and continue higher. Gold has come off again, falling nearly $10 USD to be well below $1500USD per ounce, while the upcoming OPEC meeting is setting oil

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A mixed night again on Wall Street with concern over a no-deal Brexit easing slightly as Boris finds his deadline curtailed by Parliamentary law – so now he’s going to suspend it! Pound Sterling lept higher, dragging Euro with it while the Aussie fell back slightly but remains quite strong against King

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Macro Afternoon

A mixture of solid advances and staid scratch session across Asian share markets as we start the week post US employment print on Friday, which should set the tone for the month ahead, but there’s so many other catalysts – and volatility measures like Trump’s tweets – that are pushing this once solid economic event

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A mixed Friday on Wall Street with concern over a slightly disappointing US employment print sending stocks to scratch finishes, while interest rates the USD finished lower, although gold dropped against USD as well. European bourses did better, but not by much so its a case of caution through the weekend to

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Macro Afternoon

A sea of green across Asian share markets to finish the week in a mood of optimism as more “talks” about the trade war between US and China scare away the short sellers. Gold has hung on despite a big inversion overnight while USD has risen against Yen and Yuan, with the Australian dollar still

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The Ice Age is coming for stocks

Via superbear Albert Edwards at Societe General: … my biggest Ice Age mistake was to assume that the US would be like Japan and that subsequent to the 2008 GFC, US policymakers would find it much harder to manipulate the economic and credit cycles. I thought we would return to ‘normal’ economic cycles with lengths nearer

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Its all about trade talks again overnight with US stocks leading the charge, European stocks also surging while the FTSE retraced as a higher Pound Sterling and more Brexit chaos takes a toll. The services ISM was surprised to the upside, helping boost sentiment and taking some heat out of gold which

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Macro Afternoon

A boost to optimism across risk markets today, following potential upside to the continued US-China trade talks, but this seems like a repeat of the last time! A bit of market manipulation from both sides is at hand with the PBOC again strengthening the Yuan, with gold falling slightly as the USD strengthens nearly across

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stocks came back on both sides of the Atlantic overnight despite a fall in USD, positive sentiment building due to the Hong Kong situation changing for the better, while Boris had another failure in his Brexit plans. Bond markets were relatively stable while gold continued to leap to new highs, with commodity

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Macro Afternoon

Outside of Hong Kong, it was a staid session across Asian stock markets today as risk tread water in reaction to the poor lead from Wall Street and the deepening Brexit drama overnight. Locally, the latest GDP print has added to the poor macroeconomic picture, with traders betting that the RBA will do 2/5ths of

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US markets reopened overnight, and were flummoxed by a weak ISM manufacturing print that retracted for the first time in three years, sending risk sentiment in negative territory. Stocks and the USD fell while Treasuries rallied sending the 10 year yield down to a three year low, hovering just above 1.43% as

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Macro Afternoon

A steady as you go session across Asian risk markets today as traders await the return of the US from its long weekend. Locally, all eyes were on the RBA which failed to act, keeping interest rates steady and arresting the terminal dive in the Pacific Peso, while the Chinese Yuan was again fixed lower

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UBS: Worst profit season since GFC

UBS is not happy: Reporting season was soft, with more misses than beats… Reporting season is now over. FY19 results were generally weak, with the beat-to-miss ratio at 0.8 (well below average). Guidance was also very soft, with the upgrade-to- downgrade ratio coming in at 0.6, the worst in five years. However, the typical stock’s

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  With US markets closed overnight, the rest of the risk complex didn’t have much of a lead to go on, with European markets putting in scratch sessions although the FTSE jumped again as the bottom fell out of Pound Sterling as Boris Johnson threatened a general election in the wake of Brexit.

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed start to the trading week here in Asia with Chinese stocks on the rise while Japanese and local stocks fall due to the lack of confidence transmitted by Wall Street on Friday night, not helped by the Labor Day weekend. Chinese private PMI figures helped boost the official ones while the next set

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The upside of recession investing

Via the excellent Damien Boey Credit Suisse: Most people focus on the recession risk embedded in an inverted yield curve. And this makes sense, because eight out of ten times when the curve inverts, a recession follows within the next year or so. However, we suggest a better way of interpreting curve inversions – via the lens

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw a continuation of some positive sentiment across risk markets, although the long weekend in the US meant positions on Wall Street were tapered back, not helped by the latest consumer sentiment figures which are receding. The ECB contineus to send out mixed messages, with some calling for more easing

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Macro Afternoon

The bounce is on as Asian equities play catchup with stock markets much higher to end the week, while the USD flexes its muscles against the majors, sending gold and safe havens like Yen down, as the Aussie dollar is about to make a new monthly low. Chinese stocks are moving slightly higher with the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Its all swings and roundabouts with the Chinese overnight indicating they won’t retailiate against Trump’s latest tariffs (and they’ll overlook his lying about phone calls too!), which sent risk markets sharply higher, dragging the USD along as well. Treasury yields dropped, with the 10 year losing 10 points as money went back

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Macro Afternoon

Another relatively mild session across risk markets here in Asia today until late in the session with traders eyeing the latest musing from China on the trade war with the US.   Chinese stocks were the worst off with the Shanghai Composite down a handful of points again, remaining below 2900 points while the Hang Seng

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Its all about Brexit – no trouble – overnight with risk markets tentatively moving forward, only Pound Sterling suffering any stress due to Boris’ suspension of Parliament. The USD rose slightly while Treasury yields were relatively stable through a large auction, with the latest DOE oil inventory figures giving oil prices a

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Macro Afternoon

A relatively staid session across risk markets here in Asia today following a small blip higher on Wall Street overnight. Only Chinese stocks are in the red with the Shanghai Composite down a handufl of points to be back below 2900 points while the Hang Seng Index has continued its mild retreat, down 10 points

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets remained unconvinced of any real development in the US/China trade war as Trump gets called out on his bald-faced lies following the G7 meeting. US stocks retreated slightly while the USD is little changed against the majors, as Treasuries firmed across the curve. The latest German GDP was left unrevised