Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The end of the northern hemisphere summer break usually spells doom and gloom on risk markets, and that’s where the mood takes us at the moment with Friday nights US unemployment print unable to shake confidence back into the complex. More threats and cajoling on both sides of the US/China trade war

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are not liking the new round in the US trade war with China with falls across the region as Yen buyers step in on the safe haven and the Australian dollar is wallopped on the commodity selloff while the Yuan has sold off to a new monthly low. The Shanghai Composite has

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The tweeting Twit-in-Chief put another spanner in the trader war spat between the US and China overnight with more tariff threats pushing the commodity complex over the edge, sending iron ore, oil and other hard commodities down sharply, taking stocks with them. US Treasuries rallied on the safe haven bid with the

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Macro Afternoon

Most Asian stock markets are off today in response to the “too-dovish” Fed mood overnight, although Japanese bourses barely managed a scratch session due to a much weaker Yen. Weak data from China and in particular the canary-in-the-gold-mine decline in Korean exports is hampering risk sentiment as well. Perhaps the insurance cut is at the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  It was all about the Fed overnight where at their July meeting, a 25 bps “insurance cut” rattled markets instead, with US stocks losing more than 1% and sending the USD higher against everything. Treasury yields jumped across the curve while Australian interest rates fell, with the 10 year government bond now

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Macro Afternoon

Trump is putting his foot into the trade war mouth with more rhetoric overnight that has startled markets again with most Asian equities stumbling today. Luckily, higher than expected Apple earnings are seeing US futures rise instead, but tonight’s July Federal Reserve meeting will be keenly watched by all, especially after the better than expected

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A very busy night on risk markets with a much higher than expected CPI print taking the bottom out of European stocks who were expecting the easy ECB to keep things inflated, while a booming US consumer also highlighted the risk of a less dovish Fed going into tonights FOMC meeting as

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Macro Afternoon

A much more optimistic mood here in Asia today with almost all stock markets putting on gains, with the ASX200 advancing to a new record high. Pound Sterling continued to fall as the realisation of no-negotiating let alone no-deal seems to be de jeure for the Johnson hard Brexit, while the Australian dollar continued its

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A mixed night on risk markets with US stocks retracing while the FTSE launched higher helped by a near three year low in Pound Sterling as hard Brexit becomes a reality. Interest rate and currency markets are poised for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting while commodities lifted slightly with gold eking out a new

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Macro Afternoon

Quite a mixed response to the record high on Wall Street here in Asia with Chinese markets falling on the back of continued protests in Hong Kong, with only the Australian bourse putting a positive – and record high – session. Caution is the name of the game going into this week’s big series of

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A stronger than expected 2Q GDP print on Friday night gave US stocks a big goosing, with new record highs, as the USD also put in a two month high with Euro at two year lows against King Dollar. The Fed looks set still to cut rates when it meets tomorrow –

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Macro Afternoon

A very mixed end to the trading week here in Asia with mainland Chinese stocks advancing while the rest of the region stumbled following the impact of the stimulus from the ECB overnight. The Shanghai Composite lifted 0.25% but has been unable to finish the week above 3000 points while the Hang Seng Index fell sharply,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The ECB met last night and adopted a very very clear easing bias with a new stimulus package, but it wasn’t enough for punch drunk risk markets with European stocks falling and pushing US bourses into the red on the lack of confidence. Durable goods in the US however surprised to the upside

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Macro Afternoon

A sea of green across Asian stock markets this afternoon but not so for the Australian dollar which continues to stumble as Governor Lowe this morning was unable to outline a clear scenario for when rate cuts will stop. Currency markets are awaiting tonights ECB meeting plus any further fallout from Boris Johnson’s cabinet culling, as

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The decline in European manufacturing activity and the swearing in of Trump-lite Boris Johnson as UK PM was not enough to upset risk markets with new record stock markets in the US, while iron ore and oil prices fell on supply gluts. The USD remained firm against the majors, although Pound Sterling

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Macro Afternoon

The strong overnight lead has translated into gains across Asian stock markets today while the USD advanced against the Kiwi and Aussie, it fell back against Yen as gold finally found some form as well. Chinese stocks are positive but mixed with more action on the mainland with the Shanghai Composite closing 0.8% higher to 2923

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  European markets awaited the outcome of the UK Tory leadership and hence new PM outcome with the Euro tanking on the news that “Trump-lite” Johnson got the job, thus securing months of chaos until the end of October. This was overshadowed by positive news around the US-China trade war plus a new

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are getting a bit of a bid here in Asia as sentiment swings back to positive on more central bank dovishness. The USD remains strong as the Aussie dollar drops throughout the session, helping local stocks while gold has retreated from its recent highs. Chinese stocks have come back slightly with the Shanghai Composite lifting

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  With no economic events overnight, risk markets hinged on the unhinged tweets from Trump while the UK tried to de-escalate tensions with Iran over its seized oil tanker. Tech stocks had a very positive night while industrials on Wall Street were subdued as disappointing earnings keep rolling in. Currency markets were quiet

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Macro Afternoon

Not a good start to the week here in Asia with a sea of red on stock markets in response to the weekend seizure of a British oil tanker by Iranian forces, but also the walkback of the Fed easing more than expected at this month’s FOMC meeting. Chinese stocks sold off the most with

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Robots bid up stocks as humans flee

Via Deutsche: Deutsche Bank notes that whereas discretionary investors have been cutting equity positioning as growth has slowed… … systematic strategy allocations – i.e., quants (sometimes also called “robots”) and the like – have been marching higher. To evaluate how various investor classes have been approaching markets, Thatte divides his suite of equity positioning and

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The possible revocation of the Fed put combined with the Iranian seizing of a British tanker saw risk sentiment reverse again on Wall Street following a positive close here in Asia. The amount of easing priced in at the July Fed meeting has dropped to an average of only 30 basis points

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Here comes the Fed with more punch to revive this boring party! The NY chief of the Federal Reserve, John Williams, gave a big boost to risk markets overnight by goosing the easing question, sending stocks higher and slamming the USD down against all the undollars. Gold has broken out to a

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia are again under pressure following the poor lead from Wall Street, but also from a slump in trade figures in Japan, sending Japanese stocks falling as Yen gained against USD. The Aussie dollar has lifted inexorably after a poor unemployment print, dragging the Kiwi along for the ride. The Shanghai Composite gapped

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Global fundies get bullish (sort of)

Via BofAML: The BofAML July Global Fund Manager Survey The nut: dovish Fed & trade truce have caused investors to reduce cash and add risk; but expectations of EPS recession & debt deflation still dominate FMS investor sentiment and the summer “pain trade” remains up in stocks & yields; note since the uber-bearish June FMS,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The US earnings season is putting several headwinds in the way of an ever-rising stock market with US bourses falling overnight in disappointment. European markets fell as well as the prospect of a hard Brexit becomes more likely, with Treasury yields falling again in response. Looking at the action in Asia yesterday

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia are flat again with only the ASX200 putting in a positive performance as concerns over Trump’s mishandling of the trade war with China rise again. The USD is relatively calm although Pound Sterling remains under pressure with S&P futures flat before tonights open. The Shanghai Composite has been unable to get out

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The US earnings season has had a hiccup as Trump puts his foot in his mouth again with a threat of more tariffs on China, while a missive to start negotiating with the Iranians has seen the oil price drop over 2% as the USD lifted. The latest US retail sales number