Australian Shares

16

Mums and Dads drive stock crash up

Via Morgan Stanley: Retail Squeezing Institutions – but Retail Demand May be Slowing Another short squeeze, a new worst day for Growth vs Value (MSZZGRVL) after just setting that record a week ago, the 16th worst day for Momentum (MSZZMOMO), etc. and investors are asking “who’s buying (and does it continue)” and “does the rotation have

8

Too early to celebrate value comeback

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Value bounces hard. Over the past few days, we have seen value factors outperform very sharply. Sectorally in Australia, high yielding banks have led the charge, while healthcare stocks have been the laggards. The bid for resources stocks has also unwound, strangely on concerns about US-China tensions on the one hand, but

72

Macro Afternoon

A mixed mood in Asia despite the orgy of buying still going on in the northern hemisphere with only Japanese stocks advancing on the whiff of more stimulus measures. Meanwhile the Chinese Yuan hit a new low versus USD again, with offshore trading pushing through the 7.17 handle as other majors kept firm against USD

3

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The return of Wall Street sent risk sentiment higher overnight as stock markets continued their push to return back to normal overinflated bubble like status before the COVID-19 pandemic. The USD took a big hit against the majors with Pound Sterling back to a two week high and the Australian dollar pushing

213

Macro Afternoon

A solid up day here in Asia despite the lack of a lead from US and UK markets with a sea of green across stock markets. The USD is weakening against all the majors, save Yen, with gold still asleep on the sidelines. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 1% higher to 2846 points,

5

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Even a closed Wall Street couldn’t keep the bulls away overnight with European markets surging as the prospect of more economies opening up post-COVID19 overshadowed any concerns over the Chinese/US tensions. Currency and bonds were relatively stable, although gold lost further ground while industrial commodities lifted with oil prices hitting another new

103

Macro Afternoon

Despite the rising tensions with China and the West over Hong Kong and the and a long weekend for US markets, risk is going all in again in Asia, starting the week with a flourish outside of the Middle Kingdom. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is off a handful of points, still hovering above

6

Why markets don’t care about Hong Kong

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit suisse: Well that escalated quickly! Over the past few weeks, tensions have simmered among global leaders over the causes of and responsibility for the COVID-19 outbreak. Despite collective efforts to find a cure or vaccine for the virus, it seems that a comprehensive medical solution has not yet  been found, and politicians

3

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The Trading Week ended with a whimper on Friday night on Wall Street as tensions over the US/China relationship continued to simmer over as the rhetoric ramped up going into the CCP’s national congress. Meanwhile, the long weekend caused many traders to pare their positions with US stocks ending mixed, and Treasuries

146

Macro Afternoon

It looks like the risk complex has had enough of buying, with all stock markets coming up against resistance and unable to push through, the catalyst today being the Chinese revision in official GDP growth targets, coupled with the clear death of freedom in Hong Kong. The USD continues to firm against all the majors

10

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment just can’t seem to get above the current elevated levels on stock markets around the world and are snaring back to reality everytime a macro issue raises its head. US stocks fell back nearly 1% overnight on US/China tensions and the rising coronavirus case load, with the USD reasserting itself

171

Macro Afternoon

Stocks are slipping again, coming up against significant buying resistance as other risk assets like oil are still flying ahead as caution spreads across Asia. Gold also fell back as the USD strengthened against all the major currencies, with the Aussie also back to its prebreakout high. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is selling

19

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets re-engaged the buy levers again with the release of the latest FOMC minutes providing a catalyst for further advances, Wall Street lifting nearly 2% while other risk assets like the Australian dollar and oil rose in kind with industrial metals mixed. Treasury yields fell back to historic lows again while

131

Macro Afternoon

Stocks were all over the place today, initially starting out rough with gap downs across the region before most recovered in late trading on optimism that Wall Street will pull the rest of the risk edifice along. Gold nudged higher for a new daily high towards $1750USD per ounce while the Aussie dollar was largely

3

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A hiccup in risk taking overnight as stock traders read the fineprint attached to the new vaccine news, coupled with steeper than expected declines in a variety of economic reports, namely housing starts, European unemployment and the closely watched German ZEW survey. Gold held on while other major currencies fell back slightly

127

Macro Afternoon

The pandemic crisis is over:buy stocks! That’s the message from risk markets across the world at the moment, as stocks breakout of their holding patterns and all the short positions are wound back, while rational investors remain on the sidelines. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is up nearly 1% to be one or two

5

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Here comes the breakout and the second phase in the relief rally as risk markets go ga-ga over a potential vaccine for the coronavirus, while lapping up all the central bank “we will throw the kitchen sink at risk assets” mantra that continues to be rolled out by all and sundry. The

76

Macro Afternoon

A solid start to risk taking here in Asia with the usual Monday morning gaps absorbed with aplomb, especially viz currencies as investors look towards the Powell Put over the weekend, as the US Federal Reserve turns Japanese. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is up over 0.5% to start the week almost reaching 2900

4

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw a relatively good end to a hectic week across risk markets with European stocks playing catchup while Wall Street lifted slightly, its optimism about economic life opening contained somewhat by the growing China/US trade dispute, nevermind the pandemic issues. Gold continued its significant breakout as all central banks seem

143

Macro Afternoon

A somewhat mixed day here in Asia with Chinese shares pulling back on the brouhaha developing between The Middle Kingdom and the Flailing Empire as Trump again ramps up the rhetoric on trade and other measures. The USD is strengthening somewhat going into the European open while gold continues to advance after its breakout last

16

ASX bear market rally dead or resting?

The Australian dollar is still bid this morning: Bonds too: XJO has added back some of yesterday’s losses but its symmetrical tringle shows confusion: Which it should be given it is trading at 18x forward with unemployment miles above the 1990 recession: Big Iron is firm: Big Gas tooL Big Gold has life: Big Banks

1

Macro Morning

  By Chris Becker  Last night saw a small return to risk taking late in the session following another dire initial jobless claims print in the US, as Wall Street continues to ignore the stark risks given by multitudes of viral scientists and the equally stark data coming out of “open for business” states like

162

Macro Afternoon

Selling is the order of the day here in Asia with all stock markets lower by 1% or more in response to the selloff on Wall Street overnight, as traders weigh up more negativity around the “V” shaped recovery post-coronavirus. The USD is gaining against everything by safe haven Yen, with the Aussie dollar dropping

9

Tepper: It’s a tech bubble

Via the AFR: Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper sounded a strong note of pessimism on the state of the stock market, calling it the most overvalued ever outside of the bubble of 1999. Valuations on some individual stocks on the Nasdaq are “nuts,” Tepper told CNBC on Wednesday. “People have to be very careful about some

5

Macro Morning

  By Chris Becker  Another sour night on overseas markets with Federal Reserve Chair Powell giving a reality check on the economic impact of COVID-19, causing a selloff across Wall Street as Chinese/US relations also took a dive. Currencies also bore the brunt of the volatility, although gold stayed true and fair to remain above