Australian Shares

54

Macro Morning

With the US inflation report out of the way, Friday night saw the go signs flash green on stock markets while the USD pounced back on no major news against the major currencies, although the latest US Michigan consumer sentiment survey surprised to the upside. Bond yields saw new lows with 10 year Treasuries again

118

Macro Afternoon

A fairly mixed end to the trading week here in Asia following last night’s US inflation print and the latest ECB meeting which embiggened US stocks to new highs but hasn’t quite translated into firm moves across other stock markets so far. The USD is losing ground against all of the majors, but particularly Euro

0

Macro Morning

A big night on risk markets with the latest US inflation report coming in as expected, with the ECB meeting also not produce any surprises as stocks lifted across the board. Bond markets spiked before settling down with 10 year Treasuries putting in a three month low with USD slipping against the majors again but

89

Macro Afternoon

A more positive tone is setting in across stock markets in Asia following quite a mixed week so far as we all anticipate the Fed’s next move after tonights latest US inflation print. The ECB is meeting as well but seems to have been factored in, although USD is gaining ground against both Euro and

3

Macro Morning

Its a big waiting game out in the risk complex right now as traders position for tonight’s US inflation report, with Wall Street stalling again overnight. Bond markets however are rallying with a big move in 10 year Treasuries that seems to be presaging a robust inflation print while the USD is also slowly firming

148

Macro Afternoon

A sea of red across stock market here in Asia following a mixed mood overnight with hesitation possibly turning to fear across the risk complex as the US inflation print looms tomorrow night. The USD remains in a weakish state as Euro and Pound Sterling start to firm going into the London session, although gold

1

Macro Morning

Stock markets remain in hesitation and consolidation mode as we head into the all important US inflation report with overnight sentiment still mixed. Bond yields pulled back while the USD found some lost ground with gold still unable to clear the $1900USD per ounce level. European data was a little softer than expected, particularly German

56

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets remain quite flat and uninterested here in Asia following a similar mood overnight with the fallout from the bad-but-good-hangon wait a minute US unemployment report still causing a lot of hesitation in risk markets across the complex. The USD remains in a weakish state, but has firmed slightly this afternoon against undollar assets,

2

Morgan Stanley: Stocks to tank 15%

Morgan Stabley bearing it up: Over the past few weeks, we’ve been spending a lot of time with investors discussing and debating our mid-year outlook. Here are the highlights: First,investors are definitely more receptive to the mid-cycle transition narrative that we introduced a few months ago. There’s an acknowledgement that something has changed in the

2

Macro Morning

Stock markets are in hesitation mode despite the clear US jobs report from Friday night as concerns over the Federal Reserve tapering their stimulus earlier than expected are not yet cleared. Bond yields are up slightly while Wall Street was quite mixed, with tech stocks falling back, while the USD slipped only a little against

53

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are not in an upbeat mood here in Asia despite the risk on mood from Friday night caused by poor-ish US jobs figures that looks set to delay the onset of the Federal Reserve taper aka the taking away of the punchbowl. Undollar assets are holding on to their gains, but only just

8

Why you should never invest in China

I have been warning of this for nearly a decade as I watched various Australian investment legends blow themselves up in China, including Kerr Neilsen and Hamish Douglass. Investing into China is foolish for one simple reason: the sovereign risk is off the chart. This is not an academic measure of risk. Nor is it

1

Macro Morning

Not so good news for the US middle class with the latest unemployment data disappointing, but great news for US stocks and the rest of the risk complex as the worries over the Federal Reserve tapering their ebullient bond buyer programs were quickly dashed. The once resurgent USD fell sharply against everything, while Wall Street

154

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are relatively upbeat here in Asia despite the risk off mood from overnight caused by the “too good” private jobs figures that are pointing to a tapering by the Fed if tonights US employment print also goes into the “too good” category.  Bitcoin is rolling over this afternoon after obvious resistance at the

3

Macro Morning

Risk markets played the taper game last night with the latest US private jobs data report sweeping aside any notions that the Fed will hold off on tapering their bond buying program, with the latest ISM service survey also showing a huge rebound in the US economy. The USD surged as a result against all

66

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are performing while again in Asia with Chinese bourses again pulling back while traders and bots in general look to moderate before going into tomorrow night’s US jobs report, the most important event on the economic calendar. Currency markets are seeing a rebound in USD strength, pulling the Aussie down while gold prices

0

Macro Morning

Risk markets were once again constrained by the upcoming US unemployment print tomorrow night with Wall Street barely clocking over some gains despite a good lead from Asian shares yesterday.  The Fed’s Biege Book surprised to the upside while the latest German retail sales number fell back unexpectedly. This caused a bit of volatility on

129

Macro Afternoon

Again we’re getting a lot of mixed signals across stock markets at least in Asia with Chinese bourses pulling back while Japanese and local stocks lift higher, despite the lack of a lead from Wall Street overnight.  This has not yet translated into anything substantial for European markets with futures barely lifting off the ground

1

MS: Buy quality, stocks to correct

Morgan Stanley with a note that I largely agree with: Our discussions with clients are narrowing to two primary topics: Earnings and Inflation. On the former, we hear many saying earnings estimates are still too low. On the latter, the focus has become an obsession. On both fronts, we could beat a moment of (too)

1

Macro Morning

Wall Street returned from its long weekend and at first was ebullient but sold off all the gains throughout the end of the session, finishing with a scratch result. The US economic releases were solid with a record high manufacturing PMI, while the survey was upbeat but a little mixed. Bond yields moved around a

93

Macro Afternoon

A mixed tone across risk markets here in Asia with the lack of a lead from Wall Street overnight and only the RBA meeting giving any proper catalysts for traders to work on, with currency markets lifting slightly against USD, particularly Pound Sterling, with gold continuing to climb above the $1900USD per ounce barrier.  Bitcoin

83

Macro Afternoon

A muted tone across risk markets here in Asia with the lack of a lead forthcoming from Wall Street due to the long weekend holiday in the US partly to blame. Currency markets are seeing a mild reduction in USD strength coming from Friday’s volatile session, although gold remains nice and calm above the $1900USD

2

The “buy value” crowded trade is in trouble

Readers will recall that I’ve been tracking the contest between three market narratives for months: Good news is bad news: meaning reopening and ongoing fiscal stimulus has triggered inflation leading to a market shock. Bad is good news: meaning the inflation pop is temporary and ongoing low yields will deliver higher values yet. Good news

1

Macro Morning

Wall Street reacted meekly to the first Biden budget on Friday night, ending the trading week with a zero result. Volatility in currency markets briefly spiked while other markets also experienced some end of month window dressing going into the US long weekend, with Monday expected to be very quiet. Commodity prices were nominally bullish

123

Macro Afternoon

Quite a mixed trading session to end the week here in Asia, with Japanese stocks soaring while Chinese bourses are relatively steady following a late surge on Wall Street overnight. A much stronger USD is no longer weighing on risk markets although major currencies are still in the doldrums, with only gold hanging on to

0

Macro Morning

Stock markets were nominally weak overnight until after the Wall Street close, with economic data in the US not inspiring but keeping the stimulus floodgates open. USD again surged particularly against Yen, although it continues to lose ground against Yuan as Fed TaperTalk dominates forex trading decisions, with end of month window dressing (Monday being

198

Macro Afternoon

A muted trading session here in Asia, echoing overnight tones with the stronger USD weighing on risk markets. Gold however is holding above the $1900USD per ounce level while Bitcoin has stalled yet again, failing to get back above the $40K level, having been somewhat steady since its Monday morning gap down: The Shanghai Composite

0

Macro Morning

It was all about the USD overnight in a nearly uneventful trading session as European and US stocks were largely unchanged while the major currency pairs all pulled back strongly as Treasury yields firmed slightly. Again, Fed TaperTalk may be the cause of the catalyst, as traders position for a more robust and hawkish Fed

117

Macro Afternoon

More positive moves across the board here in Asia, save local stocks as the Aussie dollar blipped higher alongside the Kiwi as the RBNZ meeting resulted in both currencies jumping higher against the USD. Gold is pushing above the $1900USD per ounce level while Bitcoin has broken out above the $40K level after being relatively