Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Overnight markets were rocked again as the possibility of the US/China trade talks extending well into 2020 firmed, as domestic concerns outweighed the bigger picture, stumbling on tariffs again. US stocks are down nearly 1% going into the close while the USD has firmed against most of the majors. Looking at the

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Macro Afternoon

No surprise that risk markets are wobbling on any sniff of trouble surrounding the US/China trade deal, as Trump throws the word “tariff” in the air again, which sent US stocks lower overnight, leaking into safe havens here in Asia. Chinese stocks have reversed their recent bounceback, with the Shanghai Composite slumping nearly 0.8% lower

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US stocks lost ground as Trump fumbled around comments regarding Chinese tariffs, pushing industrials down while tech stocks had a slight tick upwards, as the USD lost ground against the undollars. Pound Sterling was the exception as the Tories continue to par back in the polls while Bitcoin cracked below the $8000

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Macro Afternoon

Japanese stocks are weighing on Asian risk taking as selling exhaustion is seeing Chinese markets both on the mainland and in oppressed Hong Kong surge higher. The USD remains under pressure although a lack of buying in Aussie dollar is seeing the local currency fall short of the 68 cent level. Chinese stocks have continued

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A very quiet night for stock markets as weakness in USD sees risk taking a back seat with scratch sessions on both sides of the Atlantic. The USD fell against Yen and Euro in particular, while Bitcoin reached a new monthly low by crossing below $8300. Looking at the action on Asian

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Macro Afternoon

Outside local stock markets, the rest of Asia is bullish coming out of the Friday night play on overseas markets, where risk taking remains strong as Wall Street reaches a new record high – again. The USD remains weak against most of the majors although gold is struggling to find buyers while the Aussie dollar

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw another new record high for US markets, all based on the expectation that the US/China trade talks will still present a positive outcome for both. USD fell against most of the majors while the risk proxy USDJPY pair jumped, so combined this should result in a very good start

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Macro Afternoon

Outside China, stocks are quite boisterous here in Asia leading to good buy signals for the northern hemisphere as we close the trading week out. The USD is coming back against Yen, while risk proxies Kiwi and Aussie bounced a little higher today but are lacking any signs of real momentum. Chinese stocks are still

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Overnight risk markets are in retracement mode as the USD also falls against all the majors except the commodity proxies as Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie remain subdued. European stocks fell as bond yields dropped everywhere except in Italy, while oil prices are not moving as the latest inventory report surprises with a

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are generally down across Asia with only local issues rising due to the fall in the Aussie dollar as the latest unemployment print undershot, sending interest rate expectations down with it. The risk off mood hasn’t been helped by a slip in Chinese industrial production numbers alongside retail sales. Chinese stocks are diverging in

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More on how far equities can get

More today from the BofAML fundie survey: 1. The bulls are back…global recession concerns vanish and “Fear of Missing Out” prompts wave of optimism and jump in exposure to equities & cyclicals. 2. We say…easy part of rally over, tougher part of rally beginning…but rally it can as no “excess greed” (BofAML Bull & Bear

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Beware peddlers of Armageddon

Via FTAlphaville: In the summer of 2018, Alphaville observed that there seemed to be a paradoxical bull market in being bearish. Since the financial crisis and the ensuing rise to fame of the investors who called — and profited significantly from — it (Bass, Burry, Eisman, Paulson, Gross et al.) there have been almost constant calls for

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  An unexpectedly lower UK CPI print and continued focus on Hong Kong, combined with all eyes on the Trump impeachment inquiry is seeing risk markets on both sides of the Atlantic wobble as USD becomes mixed against the majors. Gold is making a weak comeback while oil prices are trying to build

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are falling across the region as tariff concerns over the Chinese trade deal mount alongside increased tensions in Hong Kong. The RBNZ lift its interest rate unchanged which saw the Kiwi leap higher while the Aussie dollar continues its slow deflation as the USD firms against the majors. Chinese stocks are really on the

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How far can equities run?

The BoAML fundie survey is out, via AFR: “The bulls are back,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at the bank. “Investors are experiencing FOMO – the fear of missing out – which has prompted a wave of optimism and jump in exposure to equities and cyclicals.” The survey found that investors are adding risk:

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Swings and roundabouts as the risk meter returns to the positive polarity overnight, with European and US stocks lifting in response to a delay in proposed US tariffs on European autos. The USD is mixed against the majors, with Pound Sterling lifting alongside the Swiss Franc while Euro is falling as the

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Macro Afternoon

The mixed session from overnight markets has seen an equally mixed result here across Asia as tensions in Hong Kong remain high, while tech stocks and a softer Yen are lifting risk appetites only in Japan. The USD continues to firm against most of the majors, in particular Kiwi as traders await tomorrow mornings RBNZ

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The trading week is having a mixed start as concerns from the Asian trading session yesterday transferred to Wall Street, particularly the lack of progress on a US/China trade deal but also the escalating tensions in Hong Kong. While stocks are trading in the US, debt markets are closed for Veteran’s Day

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Macro Afternoon

Here we go again! Its a real mixed day across Asia as tensions in Hong Kong jump, while inaction and bad messaging from Trump and the Chinese on the looming trade deal is seeing risk appetite erode across most of the complex. The USD is firming against most of the majors, and in particular Yuan

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The trading week finished on an upbeat note with sentiment still in the clouds about a pending US-China trade deal as the USD broke to a new record high against the major currencies, alongside US stocks. Gold fell to a new monthly low while oil prices pared back recent gains as Bitcoin

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Macro Afternoon

The ebullience from overnight markets has not translated into meaningful gains here in Asia with most bourses struggling with scratch results late in the session. The potential for a US China trade deal before Xmas is pushing risk appetites higher – but too high and too fast – so a retracement is inevitable. Gold is

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stocks are riding the waves of transPacific press releases and editorials as positive news surrounding the US/China trade deal is sending USD higher and lifting all risk assets. The EuroStoxx 60 hit a six year high as Brexit concerns have evaporated, while gold has broken through multiple support levels losing more than

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Macro Afternoon

The failure to strike a US China trade deal continues to weigh on markets here in Asia as signs are mounting that all the posturing and posing by Chairman Pooh and President Wiggum is just that: a show. Stocks are looking rocky going into the northern hemisphere session and the USD continues to firm against

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  News of a delay in a potential US/China trade deal is causing Wall Street to wobble again as a quiet session without any other catalysts apart from a spike in oil inventories keep risk taking low. European markets advanced slightly on a slight tickup in service PMIs, while gold and oil remained

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Macro Afternoon

The outright optimism from a finalisation of a trade deal between US and China yesterday has been switched to that of caution with most stock markets putting in scratch sessions in response to the stall on Wall Street overnight. The Kiwi is dropping on an unexpected rise in New Zealand unemployment rate while the Aussie

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CS: Bond blood bath ahead

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Value rotation continued in earnest overnight, with sector-neutral value factors adding 0.7%, while momentum factors detracted 1.9%, and low-beta factors lost 0.5%. The value index is back to its mid-April highs, while the momentum index is now materially down year-to-date, having experienced stellar performance through the middle

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets tumbled and the USD soared as data from the US suggested GDP growth is going to be softer than expected. Fourth quarter GDP is now estimated to be 1%, according to the Atlanta Fed after the Markit services PMI came in barely above expansion. Gold shattered below $1500USD, with all

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Macro Afternoon

Outside of Australia, stock markets here in Asia are bursting in hope and optimism, with new record highs from Wall Street overnight translating into big gains across the region. Japanese stocks were the highest, led by a big selloff in safe haven Yen, while today’s RBA meeting has translated into a big lift in Aussie