Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

While there was more hawkish signals from central banks overnight, namely the ECB, risk sentiment finally stabilised as Wall Street made a few gains after a week of selling. The USD rose slightly against most of the major currency pairs again, continuing to push the USD Index higher although the Australian dollar stabilised somewhat following

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Macro Afternoon

Another sea of read across Asian stock markets today as the risk contagion spreads from overnight markets as central banks go on a hawkish bent. The Australian dollar remains weak, heading below the 75 handle following the post RBA meeting pump and dump while the USD is still strong against the other major currency pairs,

0

Macro Morning

More hawkish signals from the Fed overnight on the release of the latest FOMC minutes saw risk sentiment sour yet again with European markets falling sharply as the weight of more Russian sanctions has seen the bear market rally falter. The USD rose against most of the major currency pairs again, with the USD Index

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are all licking their wounds today on the return of traders in China, with sentiment souring due to macro and domestic (read: COVID) reasons, as the more sanctions for Russia are likely to upset risk markets even more. The Australian dollar remains poised below the 76 handle while the USD is still

0

Macro Morning

Last night saw risk sentiment sour yet again as more sanctions for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine are likely to have wider implications for the European economy. Wall Street also pulled back sharply as more hawkish comments from the Fed turned into more upside for the USD rose against most of the major currency pairs

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets were relatively quite today, given the holidays in China, with sentiment still somewhat mixed for macro and domestic reasons, as the RBA meeting lead to yet another hold but a substantive change in language with “patience” on rate rises thrown out the window. This sent the Australian dollar soaring while the USD

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Global recession scare begins

This is about as close as the permabullish Goldman will get to acknowledging reality: A Narrow Path to a Soft Landing On the surface, standard measures of US labor market utilization still look a touch looser than just before the pandemic, even after Friday’s strong jobs report. The unemployment rate stands at 3.6% vs. 3.5%

1

“Bear market rally over”

Morgan Stanley with another great bearish note. Stocks are the village idiot of asset classes and capable of dancing off a cliff at any given moment so I wouldn’t be so bold as to predict the precise timing of any end to a bear market rally but the narrative is right and it is only

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Macro Morning

Last night saw risk sentiment improve as North Atlantic markets confirmed their positive reaction to the US NFP print on Friday, with a steady course set for the Fed to raise rates again. The defensive USD rose against most of the major currency pairs again, as the Australian dollar remains stubbornly high. Interest rate and

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets remain mixed in terms of sentiment and the impact of the USD on domestic currencies, following the latest US unemployment print on Friday night.   Oil prices are still pulling back after the US strategic reserve release last week with WTI crude below $100 while Brent crude is drifting down to the $104USD

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Stocks “late cycle”

My two favourite bearish Wall Street houses are still pounding away. Morgan Stanley: Most of my meetings this week focused on yield curve inversion, a sign that the topic is either top-of-mind or is so widely discussed that everyone is tired of talking about it. Or maybe both. (As one investor put it this week, “We’re very

0

Macro Morning

Friday night saw the release of the latest US unemployment print which would normally set the tone for risk sentiment for the rest of the month. It was a fairly solid report, but stocks reacted with only marginally lifts across the risk complex, with European bourses still under pressure. The defensive USD rose against most

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are still mixed in terms of sentiment as traders weigh up the latest US unemployment print tonight and the ramifications from the Federal Reserve. The USD is remaining strong against most of the majors, with Yen weakening while Euro is still hovering at its overnight losses.  Oil prices are still pulling back

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Macro Morning

Risk sentiment soured again overnight, as expectations of any ceasefire of progress in Ukraine dwindling with European shares and then Wall Street both losing over 1% for the night. The defensive USD rose against most of the major currency pairs although the Australian dollar remains stubbornly high. Volatility in interest rate and bond markets abated

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are translating overnight setbacks to relative pullbacks as the possible peace in Ukraine evaporates.  The USD is mixed with Yen hovering on its overnight lows, while Euro is still lifting after its overnight gains.  Oil prices are pulling back again, with Brent crude returning to its weekly low at just above the

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets have bifurcated in risk again with Japanese shares lagging due to some poor retail sales data and a stronger Yen while Chinese and Australian shares continue to rebound. The USD is losing ground against everything, with Yen, Euro and Aussie all higher going into the London session with oil prices pulling back

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Stocks party into recession!

Never underestimate the equity market’s capacity for blind bullishness. Especially these days when robots have turned reflexivity systematic. Even permabullish Goldman is baffled by today’s excitement: Last week’s DM composite flash PMI increased by 1.4pt in March, reflecting an expansion in services (+1.6pt) from the further easing of Omicron restrictions – however, forward-looking components declined

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Macro Morning

Risk sentiment soared overnight on progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, with oil prices coming back and USD losing ground as European shares were highly bid across the continent. The Federal Budget release last night locally kept the Australian dollar elevated, while USD lost significant ground against both Euro and Yen. Volatility in

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are having a better session today despite some volatile moves in bond and commodity markets with the twin lead from Wall Street and Europe overnight helping. The USD is pushing higher against Yen and Euro while the Aussie dollar is trying to get back above the 75 level. Oil prices are pulling

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Don’t fight the Fed on stocks

Morgan Stanley with the note. I 100% agree. — 2022 has been a year of extraordinary hawkishness from the Fed, and it continues to surprise on the upside with both its formal guidance and informal communications. This had led to almost weekly revisions for more Fed rate hikes from just about everyone, including our economists

3

Macro Morning

Risk sentiment improved on both sides of the Atlantic overnight as traders start to position themselves for the US unemployment print on Friday amid a more hawkish Fed. The USD saw some oscillation around Yen while Euro wavered around the 1.10 handle while the Australian dollar retraced below the 75 handle. Volatility in interest rate

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are having a quite mixed start to the trading week despite the solid leads from Wall Street on Friday night as traders position for this week’s NFP print on Friday. The USD is pushing higher against Yen and Euro while the Aussie dollar is unchanged, still holding above the 75 level. Oil

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Equities price out war. Now what?

Here’s the best take I’ve seen on the equities round trip of the past few weeks: The CoTD (Feb 15thlinkhere) that I’ve had lowest confidence in one or two weeks after publishing (and might have retracted if I could) was the one showing the historical playbook for geopolitical events. But as it turns out, that

1

Macro Morning

Friday night saw risk sentiment again bifurcate as European stocks failed to engage while Wall Street lifted on upgraded forecasts from a more hawkish Federal Reserve. The USD was basically unchanged but remained strong against Yen while Euro retraced back below the 1.10 handle. The Australian dollar also remained strong, staying above the 75 handle