Australian Shares

4

Macro Morning

Wall Street fell sharply overnight to a new two month low as the Farcebook/Instagram dropout sent NASDAQ lower as wider concerns over stagflation also dominated. European shares couldn’t get out of their rut either with a lack of newsflow not helping while bond markets were range traded around recent yield lows. Currency markets diverged as

79

Macro Afternoon

A very mixed start to the trading week here in Asia following the reversal in risk sentiment on Friday night on Wall Street, but its been overshadowing by the trading halt in Evergrande shares on speculation of a takoever and the absence of mainland Chinese risk trading due to a long holiday. Caution is the

5

Volatility is back

Nordea with the note: Autumn has clearly arrived. It’s getting colder. Maybe that’s starting to be true also for markets. The past week brought with it the first lower lows in S&P 500 since the bottom in March 2020. Equity volatility has behaved strangely since May with spikes around VIX expiry every month. And beneath

1

Wall Street: Don’t BTFD

Wall Street is turning increasingly bearish on stocks, catching up with MB. BoA: Q4 view: higher inflation, hawkish central banks, peak GDP & EPS= low/negativestock/creditreturns; sell rallies into Nov Fed taper; long H2 barbell of long inflation (e.g.commodities, energy, small cap, leisure, banks, Japan) & long quality (e.g. cash, utilities, staples, healthcare, apartments REITs); short

0

Macro Morning

Action on Friday night risk markets was turned around due to a combination of new month window dressing and some certainty around US government funding which saw Treasury yields pull back below the 1.5% level and Wall Street rally just over 1% across the board. European shares were still troubled by the latest inflation print

116

Macro Afternoon

A red day for Asian stocks as risk sentiment evaporates following the overnight machinations in US government and Chinese heavyhandedness regarding the Evergrande and energy disasters. The USD remains very firm against most of the risk currencies as the Australian dollar remains under stress following the recent postponement of European free trade talks while local

3

Macro Morning

The newsflow overnight was dominated by politics in the US and the latest final GDP prints, which sent USD off into different trajectories against commodity currencies but kept it foot on the neck of Euro. Wall Street responded poorly to the GDP print and the miss in initial jobless claims, but also some end of

5

MS: Cash isn’t trash!

Morgan Stanley has been the most bearish of the Wall Street houses for a while and it’s shaping up: Our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much

6

Macro Morning

The slew of central bank speeches overnight gave risk markets a small reprieve from the recent selling, helped along by a burgeoning US pending home sales data print but the latest US government shutdown is still causing concern. Treasury yields roundtripped around the 1.5% level after making a three month high while European shares came

29

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are selling off sharply due to regional and internal problems, let alone the falls on Wall Street overnight in the wake of the latest chicanery in the US Congress (aka the opposite of Progress) as the bond market leads the way as yields spike to new monthly highs. The USD remains relatively firm

0

Macro Morning

Bond markets were already leading the way in deciding where risk sentiment lied even before the Republican party screwed the pooch with their debt ceiling nonsense overnight with Wall Street tumbling nearly 3% as a result. Treasury yields spiked above the 1.5% to a three month high while European shares fell in sympathy as the

96

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are relatively mixed still with Chinese shares playing catchup as traders react to more Evergrande speculation while the ASX200 lost a lot of ground on more COVID concerns. The USD remains relatively firm against most of the risk currencies although the Australian dollar is coming back slightly, while gold remains under pressure as

1

Macro Morning

Bond markets are leading the way in dampening risk sentiment overnight with Wall Street pulling back from its recent bounceback while European shares remained in a holding pattern as the German elections put the continent in political limbo. Risk currencies were largely unchanged although USD continued to strengthen against Euro as gold was unable to

55

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have started the trading week in mixed fashion yet again, mirroring similar volatility on Wall Street and European bourses from Friday night. Japanese markets fell back slightly while Chinese shares are all over the place, with the local franchise – aka the ASX200 – having a very solid upday.  The USD remains relatively

3

Never invest in China exhibit #3455

Exhibit #3455 is Chris Joye on the money: On the subject of ESG, a similarly simple insight could have saved investors from exposure to the extreme ructions resulting from fears that large Chinese companies that issue vast quantities of debt into US dollar markets, like Evergrande and Huarong, will default on their repayments. And that is don’t

1

Macro Morning

Central banks remaining on their hawkish bent saw stock markets on Friday night oscillating between caution and fear with Wall Street barely scratching in with a positive result as European shares pulled back on concerns over a stalled German election. Risk currencies also pulled back in unison with USD strengthening against Euro, Yen and Aussie

154

Macro Afternoon

Asian equities are mixed yet again following last night’s slew of central bank meetings, with Japanese stocks returning with a bang while Chinese bourses are struggling to put aside the recent dead cat bounce as the Evergrande situation is far from over. The USD remains relatively firm against most of the risk currencies although gold

0

Macro Morning

Equity markets continue to bounce back as central backs continue to not surprise, following the Fed meeting we had the BOE and Swiss banks overnight still steady as she goes, leading to risk currencies rising across the board as the USD continued to fallback. Gold and silver remained under pressure however while Treasury bond yields

94

Macro Afternoon

Asian equities are bouncing back following last night’s FOMC meeting, where the taper was confirmed but not brought forward as risk expectations and sentiment start to settle yet again, getting Wall Street out of its minor funk. The USD remains relatively firm against most of the risk currencies although gold is failing to find support

9

Big miners suck in more dumb money

It is always amusing how dumb the equity market is. Dumb economists and analysts will tell you that the market is always right but that is a misunderstanding of what makes markets useful. The best description of the utility of markets is that they are often wrong but are ruthlessly efficient at correcting mistakes. I

101

Macro Afternoon

Asian equities are not yet out of the dark yet with a rally across Chinese shares based on a Evergrande coupon payment but the concern could quickly swift to foreign holders which may upset bond markets tonight, regardless of the latest Fed meeting. The USD remains relatively firm against most of the risk currencies with

4

Macro Morning

Its pussy galore following the recent selloff’s on stock markets with dead cats bouncing all over the place overnight. Wall Street “steadied” by trying to recover the previous loss after a proper bounce on European equities as we head into the next FOMC meeting with Fed tapering fears still overwhelming risk sentiment. The USD was

85

Macro Afternoon

Asian shares remain on tenterhooks as mainland Chinese markets remained closed for a holiday and Japanese stock markets reopened sharply down in the wake of the selloff on Wall Street overnight. The USD remains relatively firm against most of the risk currencies with gold largely unchanged, with all the action in Bitcoin this morning as

3

Can the Fed save China?

Nothing is more amusing than reading the smartest guys in the room as their theses fall apart. JPM leads us off: The market sell-off that escalated overnight we believe is primarily driven by technical selling flows (CTAs and option hedgers) in an environment of poor liquidity, and overreaction of discretionary traders to perceived risks. However,

3

Macro Morning

A bath of blood on Wall Street overnight as we head into the next FOMC meeting with Fed tapering fears overwhelming risk sentiment with 2% plus falls across European and US stock markets. The USD was mixed with Euro and Aussie dollar largely unchanged from their start of week slump, while Yen soared on the

89

Macro Afternoon

A very mixed start to the trading week here in Asia with mainland Chinese and Japanese stock markets closed, but that hasn’t stopped the selloff on the back of the Evergrande and iron ore price implosions, with local markets down over 2% while the Australian dollar dives deeper as well. The USD remains firm against

2

Macro Morning

Risk aversion roared back on Wall Street on Friday night as sentiment soured once again due to Fed tapering and tax hike concerns domestically, while the Chinese Evergrande saga overshadowed Asian equities. The USD came back stronger against many of the risk currencies as a result, with the Euro and Aussie dollar putting in new

173

Macro Afternoon

The selloff has abated somewhat here in Asia with only local markets falling on the back of both iron ore and coal concerns, as the USD remains firm against the risk currencies with gold still flummoxed at well below the $1800USD level: The Shanghai Composite is down 0.6% so far to remain below the 3600

15

Credit impulse signals doom for markets

A superb note from Nordea: The credit impulse has received a lot of attention as an asset allocation variable over the past years, and as the credit impulse is now clearly weakening, we go through how to position yourself for weaker credit growth. The credit impulse variable has been widely debated as a global asset