Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

A boost to optimism across risk markets today, following potential upside to the continued US-China trade talks, but this seems like a repeat of the last time! A bit of market manipulation from both sides is at hand with the PBOC again strengthening the Yuan, with gold falling slightly as the USD strengthens nearly across

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stocks came back on both sides of the Atlantic overnight despite a fall in USD, positive sentiment building due to the Hong Kong situation changing for the better, while Boris had another failure in his Brexit plans. Bond markets were relatively stable while gold continued to leap to new highs, with commodity

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Macro Afternoon

Outside of Hong Kong, it was a staid session across Asian stock markets today as risk tread water in reaction to the poor lead from Wall Street and the deepening Brexit drama overnight. Locally, the latest GDP print has added to the poor macroeconomic picture, with traders betting that the RBA will do 2/5ths of

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US markets reopened overnight, and were flummoxed by a weak ISM manufacturing print that retracted for the first time in three years, sending risk sentiment in negative territory. Stocks and the USD fell while Treasuries rallied sending the 10 year yield down to a three year low, hovering just above 1.43% as

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Macro Afternoon

A steady as you go session across Asian risk markets today as traders await the return of the US from its long weekend. Locally, all eyes were on the RBA which failed to act, keeping interest rates steady and arresting the terminal dive in the Pacific Peso, while the Chinese Yuan was again fixed lower

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UBS: Worst profit season since GFC

UBS is not happy: Reporting season was soft, with more misses than beats… Reporting season is now over. FY19 results were generally weak, with the beat-to-miss ratio at 0.8 (well below average). Guidance was also very soft, with the upgrade-to- downgrade ratio coming in at 0.6, the worst in five years. However, the typical stock’s

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  With US markets closed overnight, the rest of the risk complex didn’t have much of a lead to go on, with European markets putting in scratch sessions although the FTSE jumped again as the bottom fell out of Pound Sterling as Boris Johnson threatened a general election in the wake of Brexit.

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed start to the trading week here in Asia with Chinese stocks on the rise while Japanese and local stocks fall due to the lack of confidence transmitted by Wall Street on Friday night, not helped by the Labor Day weekend. Chinese private PMI figures helped boost the official ones while the next set

4

The upside of recession investing

Via the excellent Damien Boey Credit Suisse: Most people focus on the recession risk embedded in an inverted yield curve. And this makes sense, because eight out of ten times when the curve inverts, a recession follows within the next year or so. However, we suggest a better way of interpreting curve inversions – via the lens

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw a continuation of some positive sentiment across risk markets, although the long weekend in the US meant positions on Wall Street were tapered back, not helped by the latest consumer sentiment figures which are receding. The ECB contineus to send out mixed messages, with some calling for more easing

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Macro Afternoon

The bounce is on as Asian equities play catchup with stock markets much higher to end the week, while the USD flexes its muscles against the majors, sending gold and safe havens like Yen down, as the Aussie dollar is about to make a new monthly low. Chinese stocks are moving slightly higher with the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Its all swings and roundabouts with the Chinese overnight indicating they won’t retailiate against Trump’s latest tariffs (and they’ll overlook his lying about phone calls too!), which sent risk markets sharply higher, dragging the USD along as well. Treasury yields dropped, with the 10 year losing 10 points as money went back

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Macro Afternoon

Another relatively mild session across risk markets here in Asia today until late in the session with traders eyeing the latest musing from China on the trade war with the US.   Chinese stocks were the worst off with the Shanghai Composite down a handful of points again, remaining below 2900 points while the Hang Seng

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Its all about Brexit – no trouble – overnight with risk markets tentatively moving forward, only Pound Sterling suffering any stress due to Boris’ suspension of Parliament. The USD rose slightly while Treasury yields were relatively stable through a large auction, with the latest DOE oil inventory figures giving oil prices a

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Macro Afternoon

A relatively staid session across risk markets here in Asia today following a small blip higher on Wall Street overnight. Only Chinese stocks are in the red with the Shanghai Composite down a handufl of points to be back below 2900 points while the Hang Seng Index has continued its mild retreat, down 10 points

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Russell Clark is the new Michael Burry

It’s kind of playing out the way it did for Michael Burry in the Big Short but Russell Clark’s Horseman Global is right about the base case: Why is the fund so volatile? Mainly because it’s obvious to me that growth is slowing globally, and risks are all to the downside. But what is obvious

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets remained unconvinced of any real development in the US/China trade war as Trump gets called out on his bald-faced lies following the G7 meeting. US stocks retreated slightly while the USD is little changed against the majors, as Treasuries firmed across the curve. The latest German GDP was left unrevised

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Macro Afternoon

A bit of hope and optimism is sneaking into Asian share markets today following the reversal on Wall Street overnight, although continued protests in Hong Kong are weighing locally. Safe havens are still getting a bid, with gold and Yen both rising while Treasury yields are falling. Chinese stocks have split with the Shanghai Composite taking

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The dead cat bounce had some kittens overnight with the US and China looking to return to the negotiating table before the trade war re-ignites again. Stocks recovered mildly on Wall Street while the USD came back from its slump, as Treasury yields nudged higher again. In economic news, the slump in German

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Macro Afternoon

Not quite a bath of blood, but its been a red day across Asian stock markets in the delayed weekend response to the tremendous selloff on Wall Street on Friday night.   Chinese stocks are leading the way down this time with the Shanghai Composite closing 1.2% lower to 2863 points while the Hang Seng Index is off even more,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The dead cat bounce is now over as the orange mirkin couldn’t put any life back in, swamping the Chinese with tariffs and a tirade on Friday night, sending Wall Street into a frenzy. It will be a bath of blood on Asian markets this morning as Chinese authorities reacted in kind,

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have shrugged off the poor confidence from overnight and are bidding higher going into the weekend close.  Chinese stocks are leading the charge with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 0.5% to 2897 while the Hang Seng Index is doing the same, up to 26173 points. Price had been threatening the high moving average on the daily chart, but buyers

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Das: Volatility is warning

Via Bloomie comes Satyajit Das: But the unusual size of the moves — regularly on the order of 1 per cent to 3 per cent — is being heightened by something else: the struggle to find someone with whom to trade. The decline in trading liquidity is evident in several metrics. Volumes have declined. Since

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  No room for optimism on overseas markets last night as the lack of direction in Asia yesterday translated into mild selling on both sides of the Atlantic. Treasuries sold off slightly while gold retraced on some slightly hawkish Fed comments. Looking at the action on Asian markets yesterday, where Chinese stocks were quite mixed

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Macro Afternoon

Stock markets in Asia are oscillating between small losses and tiny gains, with traders looking to the Fed again as it holds it symposium tonight in Wyoming. Chinese stocks are quite mixed with the Shanghai Composite again hovering on another scratch session going into the close, up three points to 2883 while the Hang Seng Index is the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Some more stability or instability depending on your point of view returned to equity markets overnight with the Fed minutes absorbed without much fuss as no bad macro news equating to higher risk sentiment. Weekly oil inventories were much less than expected, sending Brent higher while WTI crude was stable, as safe

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Macro Afternoon

The bounce has deflated here in Asia although Chinese stocks are just holding on to the inversion in risk sentiment overnight with the USD gaining slightly today. The Shanghai Composite is hovering on a scratch session going into the close, currently unchanged at 2877 points while the Hang Seng Index is also unmoved at 26231 points. Price

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The bounce is over! An ounce of disappointment is bringing a pound of pain to stock markets overnight, with both sides of the Atlantic closing at their session lows as Trump states he’s not ready to do a deal with the Chinese over their long running trade dispute. The USD was weak across

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Macro Afternoon

The bounce continues as stock markets across Asia lift again following last night’s rally on Wall Street, with the currency market relatively quiet although some USD weakness has crept in late in the session. Chinese stocks have switched sentiment to the worst performing, with the Shanghai Composite falling going into the close, currently down 0.2%

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Buy the dip on BHP?

Some amusing analysis here for you with BHP’s new result. It missed consensus profits above $10bn pretty badly:   But that’s history. Looking forward is much more concerning. It’s all about iron ore and coking coal, the two major drivers of returns: Here’s the realised prices: My outlooks for CY2020 are $50 (FOB) for iron