Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A better return to form for risk markets overnight with European stocks rallying while US markets edged out with some meagre returns as the latest FOMC Minutes were absorbed. Treasuries were largely unchanged as bond markets continue to realise that the Fed is done with interest rate rises for awhile, with “lower

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks basically moved together today with solid gains across the region, save Australia as local stocks were pushed down by a higher domestic currency, while gold almost hit $1350USD per ounce. The Shanghai Composite is tracking well, up 0.2% to close at 2761 points as its bear market rally continues. The Hong Kong Hang Seng

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The return of Wall Street saw risk markets nudge a little higher while a surge in USD weakness due to the leaked concerns of the US trade delegation for a more stable Yuan saw major pairs move swiftly against King Dollar, which should provide a headwind to Asian stocks here today. Looking first

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks could not build on their boisterous start to the week with a flat session across the region due to the lack of lead from US markets which were closed overnight. The USD surged however with all pairs falling including Yuan which the PBOC again weakened. The Shanghai Composite is basically flat, down about

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UBS: Profits season holding up

Via UBS today: Reporting season has been better than feared. To date, the 1.2 ratio of beats-to-misses has been only modestly below average, while company guidance has been surprisingly resilient, with more outlook upgrades than downgrades. Despite companies remaining generally optimistic on the outlook, 61% of companies have seen downgrades to FY19 consensus EPS estimates

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A holiday on Wall Street and the lack of any economic data or macro news kept risk markets at bay overnight with the USD also little changed. Looking first at the action on the Asian session yesterday, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed 1.6% higher to 28281 points with the uptrend well

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Macro Afternoon

A boisterous start to the week here in Asia with almost all stock markets following the big night on Wall Street on Friday. This was despite growing macro concerns with Japanese machine orders falling, another possible round of tariffs from Trump and a slump in Chinese car sales. The USD continued its slide, albeit at

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Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  Looking at Chinese stocks first, where last week saw the Shanghai Composite returned after being close for most of the previous week due to Chinese New Year holiday. The result was a solid breakout above the high moving average and key resistance on the weekly chart at the 2600 point level, closing

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Macro Afternoon

Not a good finish to the week here in Asia with all stock markets reporting a loss as pessimism around any trade deal between the US and China builds, with Trump’s focus on domestic issues and creating an “emergency” as political theater. The USD has reversed again with gold prices lifting slightly. The Shanghai Composite

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Bull or bear market rally?

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Overnight, we received very disappointing US retail sales data. Headline nominal sales fell by 1.2% over the month, their sharpest monthly decline since the financial crisis. Notwithstanding ongoing strong job creation, consumption weakened on the back of low confidence and market turbulence.   We estimate that year-ended growth in

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed day here in Asia with most stock markets treading water as everyone awaits the outcome of the ongoing US/ China trade talks plus the possibility of another Trump shutdown later in the week. The Shanghai Composite finally put in a scratch session after riding a big wave all week, closing just a few

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are still floating along on a positive sentiment vibe while the USD reversed course overnight, surging against the majors and knocking gold back to its lowest level in two weeks. Treasury yields continue to climb, now above 2.71% as the latest CPI print came in a little hotter than expected.

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Macro Afternoon

Another solid day on stock markets across Asia following the moves higher on Wall Street overnight with Chinese stocks leading the way as expectations for the US/China trade deal become more positive. The Australian dollar launched on the sentiment survey while the Yuan remained firm against USD. The Shanghai Composite closed nearly 2% higher, making big

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets were buoyed last night by another government shutdown aversion and hope that the US/China trade talks will amount to something, as rationale repairs Trumps ridiculous policies. The USD reversed course as a result, with both Pound and Euro surging, while US Treasury yields lifted again to a new weekly high.

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Macro Afternoon

The poor showing on Wall Street overnight was brushed aside here on Asia with solid lifts across all stock markets today with a big return from Japanese stocks due to the long weekend and much weaker Yen. The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 0.6% going into the close, currently at 2671 points and building on

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Australian dollar pumps and dumps on mortgage crash

The Aussie dollar did a round trip this morning as it misinterpreted today’s data dump. The NAB business survey rebounded modestly which took the AUD higher but ABS mortgages absolutely plunged and, frankly, are suggesting firmly that Australia is in the grip of house price crash: Business conditions are obviously a trailing indicator versus that

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are very mixed with a stall on Wall Street not replicated in Asian or European markets, with the latter helped by a much stronger USD. Although US Treasuries sold off slightly, the lessening prospect of any further interest rate rises by the Fed was overshadowed by concern of the continuining

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed start to the week on risk markets here in Asia with another public holiday in Japan taking a lot of volume off the table, while the welcome return of Chinese markets is seeing confidence lift, at least on the mainland. The USDCHF pair had a big flip higher on what looks like another

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Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  Looking at Chinese stocks first, where last week saw the Shanghai Composite closed for most of the Chinese New Year holiday, reopening on Friday with a solid close to be 1% higher and continuing to stabilise above tentative support at the 2600 point level. With the US/China trade talks the main focus, possibly

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Macro Afternoon

The lack of progress in both the Brexit no-deal and the US China trade talks continues to weigh on risk markets with overnight losses festering into the Asian session today as some Chinese markets return from holiday. In currency land most undollar assets are unchanged but the Aussie dollar is failing against the crosses, notably

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are selling off going into the end of the week with a lack of progress on the US China trade talks to blame while the European Commission downgraded their latest growth forecasts. A run to safe havens was the result overnight with US Treasuries rallying while European currencies stabilised after

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Macro Afternoon

The biggest loser in the Asian session today was the Kiwi on a big job number miss first up this morning, falling more than 100 pips against USD and AUD. Aussie stocks lifted on the back of a much weaker Australian dollar and a continued rebound in bank and financials. US and Eurostoxx futures are