Australian Shares

4

Time to buy CBA?

Via UBS: Is it the right time to buy CBA? One of the key question in the bankings sector at the moment is whether it is time to buy CBA. The arguments in favour of buying CBA are: CBA is a quality bank with a superior Retail franchise; CBA has underperformed the rest of the

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Not a very exciting night on Wall Street as lack of volumes from Asia and Columbus Day in the US saw the worlds biggest market – bonds – closed. Stocks retreated slightly as did the USD against most of the majors in the aftermath of Friday’s NFP print. Recapping Asia yesterday first

14

Why is Macquarie long the “perpetual leveraging doomsday machine”

Great stuff today from the always entertaining and cross-disciplinary Viktor Shvets at Macquarie: Investors seem to be residing in a world without any notable perceived risks. It is an extraordinary and unprecedented situation, particularly given unresolved issues of over leveraging and associated over capacity as well as profound disruption of business and economic models, which

7

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker A quiet start to the week in Asia as several bourses were closed so it was a mixed reaction to Friday night’s NFP print setting the course for the next month and possibly into the Christmas season. In mainland China the Shanghai Composite reopened after the Golden Week break, gapping up 1% but

0

China re-opens, Dalian crashes

Oh dear! It was supposed be all buying when they got back from holidays: Just ask Big Iron which has RIO breaking out: Big Gas is mixed: Big Gold is up with the EUR dead cat: Big Sleazy is up and it looks like as things get worse the yield trade is back: Big Liar

2

Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  It’s been a Golden Week for China with closed markets, with a few more Asian bourses closed today on Monday, but it was the Friday night NFP in the US that stoked risk. A big boost in hourly wages data overshadowed the headline print, which put a rocket under expectations of more

31

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Asia is having a relatively quiet day as traders position for the closely watched NFP print in the US tonight. Most stock markets closed slightly higher, with the ASX rebounding after a poor week of performance, mainly due to an Aussie dollar that has cracked and likely to head to 77 cents

16

AFR: Buy international shares to escape ASX dud

Via the AFR: Aggregate earnings for ASX-listed companies have gone precisely nowhere since the end of 2006, on a per share basis. It’s no surprise, then, that the Aussie sharemarket hasn’t managed to make any progress over that period either. But there are a couple of points to note before you throw your hands up in the air

3

Diving dollar delivers ASX bid at last

The Xenoponzi bombshell rocked the Aussie dollar: And that has helped finally deliver a bid to the busted ASX: Big Iron is roaring (straight towards a cliff edge in my view): Big Gas is up though ORG is now well a truly mired in the STO trench: Big Gold is up. Way too early: Big Sleazy

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Boom! Another record high in US stocks overnight as the hawks were let out of the cage, sending the USD higher alongside US bond yields. All the majors, particularly the Aussie dollar, fell against the King as US initial jobless claims and other data pointed to more inflationary pressure for the Fed

3

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Not the most exciting session here in Asia with currencies and gold unmoved against USD as most stock markets putting in scratch sessions as Chinese bourses remain closed for a holiday. The only action was in the Australian dollar which fell on a poor retail sales number as traders pre-position for tomorrow

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker US stocks crept higher while European bourses tread water as the USD retreated against the undollar assets like gold, Aussie dollar and the Euro. The US ISM non manufacturing print came in higher than expected while Eurozone retail numbers disappointed on the downside. A higher than expected crude inventory level saw oil

17

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Asia shares were quite mixed today with the ASX200 taking a big hit while Hong Kong stocks continued their rally. Aussie 10 year bonds rallied alongside the dollar while commodities retreated. The BTFD crowd continues to pile in on US stocks even with concern over the viability of Trump’s fiscal disaster in

3

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Another night of new record highs for US stocks as the USD retreated slightly against the majors as traders position for later week events like the NFP payrolls on Friday. Commodities were relatively stable with crude oil prices holding on after a swift fall to start the month and quarter. Recapping Asia

18

Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Outside the ASX200, most stock markets gained across Asia, following the good mood on Wall Street overnight. It was a day of reserve banks moving and standing still with the Chinese authorities cutting reserve requirement ratios for some loans while the RBA sat on its hands, sending the Aussie dollar lower. In

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Volatility returned while I had a little but welcomed break (but I could do without the Bali Belly, even though I never left the country!) but it was mainly upside as overseas stocks continued their rallies after breaking out on a return to USD strength. This continued overnight with rallies in the

9

Global fundies abandon Australia

Some amazing charts today from BofAML on just how on the nose Australian equity is, via the AFR: A Bank of America-Merrill Lynch survey of 568 large long-only funds managing $US1.4 trillion shows that fund managers are the most underweight the Australian market when compared to other Asia-Pacific markets, excluding Japan. And that distaste for

16

Global funds flee “structurally impeded” ASX

Via Domainfax: An analysis of 586 large long-only funds managing $1.4 trillion shows money managers are decidedly underweight Australian shares, making the ASX the most underweighted index in the region for the third month in a row, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The disproportionate composition of the ASX200 – comprising largely banks and

2

Big Iron breaks as futures hit again

Dalian opened with a bang today as coking coal tumbled: Iron ore held on: Big Iron is up as it fishes for a bottom: FMG is more realistic, breaking up-trend support: I am strongly of the view that bulks have further to fall here, with a not immaterial risk of a complete rout. Big Gas is

1

Dovish Phil saves the ASX

Dalian is still down today: Big Iron is, too, though Rio is enjoying a buy-back bounce which is just so 2015: Big Gas is up though the Pensioner Killers are down as they face the ADGSM. It appears the market is fretting that ORG will be drawn in: Big Gold is still selling. I wouldn’t

16

Bullhawks shove ASX to the brink

While the flock of bullhawks grows ever larger chasing illusory Australian rate hikes, the stock market is in no doubt about what that means as it screams policy error! The ASX200 is down sharply today and it’s near perfect bearish descending triangle pattern is ready to break to the downside (noting that that is meaningless