By Chris Becker Friday night saw the big event on the calendar – the latest US unemployment figures via the non-farm payrolls (NFP) – which set the tone for the rest of the month and indeed year for risk taking. The release easily beat expectations, driving the unemployment rate down and sending risk markets higher
Stocks are moving slightly higher across Asia desptie the scratch sessions on Wall Street overnight as a new round of optimism for the US/China trade quagmire gathers pace, just before the all important non-farm payroll/unemployment print later tonight. The Shanghai Composite is hovering just on the 2900 point level with little change going into the
Via Saxo: Summary: Equities continue to rally although the first week of December has been more choppy due to mixed trade headlines from the US and China. Overall, US equity valuations have hit dangerous levels for long-term investors and the recent Swedish Services PMI figures are highlighting emerging spillover effects from manufacturing into the services sector
By Chris Becker A mixed night on risk markets with the positive sentiment fading goign into the weekend, as no news on a US/China trade deal is construed as bad news. Wall Street ended with a scratch session while European bourses retreated slightly in the wake of flagging retail sales numbers. The USD was weaker
Stocks are advancing across Asia in the wake of optimism that a trade deal between US and China can be struck before the December 15 tariffs kick in, with the ASX up over 1% while the USD treads water against most of the majors. The Shanghai Composite has lifted nearly 0.7% and looks set to
By Chris Becker A big reversal in sentiment overnight as stock markets reacted positively to the speculation that the December 15 US/China tariffs may be avoided with a secure trade deal. The USD sold off as a result, alongside bonds, as oil prices also spiked more than 3% as the latest US ISM Services print
Another rough day here on Asian stock markets with some fluctuation in USD weakness as the upcoming December 15 China tariffs are seeming to firm. A big spike in the offshore Yuan – up to a month high 7.07 level – plus a firmer Yen is keeping risk taking at bay, although European futures are
Not much fun for Aussie assets today. The Australian dollar has come off a little from its Lunatic RBA spike: Bonds too: XJO is getting creamed, down another 1.7% after 2% yesterday: And sporting a potential major double top pattern: Dalian has a mind of its own as Vale worries: Big Iron ore is thumped
By Chris Becker Again, markets are in the thrall of a US President’s comments, with Trump threatening tariffs against France – while in France and celebrating 70 years of the NATO Alliance – and conceding that the US/China trade deal may not go through until the election. US stocks markets flopped as a result with
A mixed day across Asian stock markets with the slump on Wall Street overnight reflected across most bourses except Chinese, which bucked the trend. The RBA decision to hold was the highlight of the day, as the Aussie dollar reached a new high beforehand as the USD weakened, the realisation that no more cuts sent
By Chris Becker Last night saw a big risk inversion on trade concerns as the Twit in Chief rolled out new steel tariffs and blamed the Fed and high USD, just as the latest ISM Manufacturing print came in with a surprise fall and contraction, particularly in employment. The USD tanked as a result, sending
Asian stock markets have started the week on a strong note despite the slump on Wall Street on Friday night, namely because of the weaker Yen sending Japanese stocks higher and a firm Chinese PMI print. The USD has weakened against Aussie and Kiwi which have gapped higher on the usual Monday morning open while
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: 1. We have a modest ASX 200 target of 7000. At an aggregate level, income, rather than capital growth will likely be the driver of returns. 2. We see earnings recovery, but multiple compression. IBES Consensus numbers point to roughly 6% earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next
By Chris Becker Friday night saw the return of US traders to their desks and waited for any news about the ongoing US/China trade negotiations, with a mild risk-off session the result. Wall Street didn’t make a new record high – shock and horror – while bond yields fell as markets price in a near
Asian stock markets have gone into risk off mode going into the weekend, despite the Black Friday retail orgy but mainly due to lack of direction from closed a Wall Street. A speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda has rattled a bit of confidence in Japan and elsewhere as he states “fiscal and monetary policy is
By Chris Becker US markets were closed for thanksgiving overnight, leaving other risk markets to their own devices as the Chinese reaction to continued pressure on their oppression in Hong Kong made a small impression. A lack of further economic releases of any import keep risk aversion contained to a slight dip in European stocks
Readers will know that we are not a believer in the global recovery narrative driving the great stock blowoff. It is impressive nonetheless as down days all but disappear: Daily price swings too: Not to menton the death of vol: As America First leaves the world well and truly behind: Thanks to buybacks: And cyclicals:
Asian stock markets are quite mixed across the region with local shares buoyed by Westpac’s call for two more rate cuts by the beleagured RBA, which sent the Aussie dollar down, while Chinese stocks continued their pullback as the Yuan fix hovered around the 7 handle. No news on the US/China trade deal is good
By Chris Becker Overnight risk markets took a step back as the USD cooled on its strengthening trend against the major undollar assets, with gold moving higher alongside Euro and Yen. Wall Street advanced only slightly while European markets slipped and it looks like a cool day of risk taking here in Asia. Looking at
A solid session for most Asian stock markets although this hasn’t translated into a full risk on response from S&P and Eurostoxx futures as currencies were unable to move in their risk proxy directions as usual, Yen in particular. The gold price and Yuan fix stayed steady while Bitcoin attempted but failed to breakout of
Hope at Bloomie: Asian stocks gained Tuesday amid optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and a fresh wave of merger and acquisition activity. The yen slipped. Reality at the FT: World trade contracted sharply in September, dashing hopes that the global downturn that has been weighing on exporters had bottomed out. The volume of global trade
Via Goldman: P/E hovers around the current level of 18.0x for most of next year before rising to 18.6x following the election as uncertainty falls: …a unified federal government post-election could prompt investors to assume the tax cut is reversed and lower projected 2020 EPS to $162 (-7% year/year growth), compressing the P/E multiple to
By Chris Becker A big surge on overnight markets with US stocks making new record highs in the wake of fresh optimism surrounding the US/China trade deal and the run up to the Black Friday retail orgy. Tech stocks led the way while European bourses also had a solid night with more ECB wonkery explaining
Weekend news of a possible resolution or movement of some kind in the US/China trade talks although the IMF is right to say this might be just domestic politics posturing as one country tries to stabilise internal struggle while the other tries to kick out a corrupt autocrat. Does it matter which? Gold fell again
Via Epoch Times: Elements of the immediate and long-term aftermath of a Hong Kong massacre may include the following catastrophic results for the CCP: The destruction of Hong Kong’s reputation as a safe and free haven for business. The “Hong Kong miracle” will become tarnished with a loss of foreign investment and tourism. Killing the
By Chris Becker US all the way on Friday night with Treasuries, the USD Index and Wall Street all advancing in tandem on the back of (spurious) claims by Trump that the US/China trade talks are advancing well – even though he later contradicted that in a Fox news rant. In Europe, new ECB President
Another generally mixed day in Asian risk taking given the poor performance on Wall Street overnight as the stronger USD weighs on markets. Chinese stocks are really struggling here, with the Shanghai Composite down nearly 0.6% to be well below 2900 points although the Hang Seng Index has found a modicum of buying support, currently
We’re still waiting for Tim Toohey’s last boom which was going to skyrocket interest rates in 2017. Now a new one is on the way, via AFR: “We’re going to see another 12 to 18 months of an upswing here,” he said. “The financial markets have been obsessing about 2020 being the year of the
By Chris Becker The USD re-asserted itself overnight as stock markets stumbled surrounding the continued lack of good news emanating from US/China trade talks, with Wall Street putting in minor losses. Oil rallied although this didn’t help commodity currencies as the Canadian Loonie dropped on domestic comments, dragging the Aussie and other proxies with it.
Another sea of red across Asian stock markets today following the same wave overnight on Wall Street, despite the Chinese trying to shore up optimism that trade talks won’t stumble and fall into the 2020 calendar year. Moody’s downgrade of the Australian state budgets weighed locally with the Australian dollar struggling to get back above
