Australian Shares

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Despite the ongoing clusterf$%k that is Brexit, risk markets are all looking up with oil making a new weekly high while US stocks pushed to a four month high as the USD weakness continues to provide support. Pound Sterling went nuts again, this time on the UK Parliaments rejection of the no-deal

76

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are fighting poorly against a risk off sentiment with the fallout from the failed Brexit deal last night in the UK still reverberating. The Aussie dollar alongside the Kiwi has fallen while Yen remained firm with the latest consumer sentiment data locally hurting the Pacific Peso. The Shanghai Composite is selling off

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Brexit is dominating risk markets again, but an upbeat Wall Street – minus Boeing’s effect on the Dow – smoothed over the volatility, with Pound Sterling the only real casualty. The Aussie/Kiwi cross made a new yearly low as the Aussie dollar kept up its advance on USD as the latest CPI

83

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are doing well following the solid Wall Street lead with the USD still looking weak heading into tonights CPI print. The Australian dollar has continued its bounce off the 70 cent level while Yen has sold off giving Japanese stocks a small boost to start the week. The Shanghai Composite is putting on

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk appetite powered back overnight due to the better than expected US retail sales numbers, with tech stocks leading the way on Wall Street. The USD also lost more ground, spectacuraly against Pound Sterling which roared back to life as Brexit negotiations took another turn overnight. Looking first at the action on

52

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are mixed following the disappointing NFP print on Friday night, although it seems risk off has been priced in by most markets as the USD takes a breather. The Australian dollar has bounced off the 70 cent level while Yen has sold off giving Japanese stocks a small boost to start the week.

0

Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  Looking at Chinese stocks first, where last week saw the Shanghai Composite double down on its recent epic breakout, getting well above the 3000 point level before a late week selloff saw some sanity prevail.   This continues to be due to more optimism over the US/China trade talks plus the possibility of

59

Macro Afternoon

The big fall in Chinese trade for February has seen a big slump on stock markets across Asia, not helped by the poor showing on transatlantic markets as the ECB plays catchup to the prospect of a Euro-wide recession. Yen has surged against the USD on the safe haven bid, while the Aussie dollar is barely

15

Aussie bonds boom again as NAB mulls full rate cut cycle

Everyone except the lunatic RBA is racing in one direction now, including NAB’s Alan Oster: “We now think that the RBA will make two rate cuts in 2019. Growth appears to have lost significant momentum, placing at risk further improvement in the labour market at a time when inflation poses little constraint on policy and

1

2020 earnings growth false dawn

The Wall Street Journal was out yesterday with a comment expressing optimism on 2020 earnings forecasts that is wrong: While analysts have been downgrading their forecasts for this year’s revenues and earnings growth, projections for 2020 look more encouraging. The real way these things work is that analysts have forecasts, say for 10% growth for

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Wow what a fun night for currency traders! As I stock up on a large double double to get the caffeine going, the big takeaway to write down is the dovish turn at the ECB, where fresh stimulus is on offer, sending the Euro plummeting. This didn’t translate into confidence, obviously, so

86

Macro Afternoon

The confluence of a poor night on Wall Street, a stronger Yen, the Huawei story, plus a bunch of nasty local data has seen risk mainly taken off the table throughout Asia. Locally, traders are bidding a pup to the moon on the ASX200, while the Aussie dollar tears back on the record trade surplus,

4

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US stock markets fell overnight as the trade deficit figures blew out more than expected, with risk sentiment not helped by the OECD lowering its forecast for global growth. This pulled down commodity currencies, with the Aussie dollar doubly hit on the poor GDP yesterday as it looks certain the RBA must

132

Macro Afternoon

A mixed day here in Asia as Japanese stocks take a dive while locally, the ASX200 is supported by the almost baked in rate cuts coming for the Australian dollar as the GDP print comes in lower than expected. The Shanghai Composite is the standout, up 1% going into the close and remaining well above

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  US stock markets have closed where they started again despite a better than expected non-manufacturing ISM print overnight, which initally sent the USD higher but then faded against the majors later in the session. Today its the 4Q GDP print for Australia which will be obviously sensitive to the Aussie dollar and bonds.

99

Macro Afternoon

Risk is taking a holiday here in Asia in response to the slump overnight on Wall Street with the USD gaining strength against most of the majors not providing the usual help. The RBA meeting also failed to ignite animal spirits with the Australian dollar largely unchanged. The Shanghai Composite is the standout, up 0.4%

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are turning cautious despite some potentially positive good news around the US China trade talks, with USD continuing its bull run against the major currency pairs. US stocks were down nearly 1.5% lower mid session before recovering to mild losses as gold fell to a two month low. Looking first

57

Macro Afternoon

A generally positive end to the week here in Asia with most stock markets putting on meaningful gains, buoyed by positive numbers out of China and Japan, plus a higher USD suppressing local currencies. The Shanghai Composite is ticking along, only up a few points going into the close and remaining above 2900 points at 2945.

107

Macro Afternoon

Outside Australia, stocks have dropped across the region as the US/NK summit ends on a whimper, cut short with no agreement. Risk markets have bid up the USD and pushed stocks down as the latest Chinese manufacturing PMI comes in lower than expected for a third month in a row. The Shanghai Composite is off

3

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets remained in a holding pattern again overnight as a slew of macro events and news weighed on any risk taking, sending USD higher. The US advanced goods trade deficit blew out while durable goods orders came in a little weaker than expected, but all eyes were on Washington for Michael

189

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets are generally buoyant across Asia today with a few macro releases, including Australian construction data, disappointing to the downside, but having almost no effect on risk taking. The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 1% going into the close, taking back most of the previous losses to remain above 2900 points at 2964. The Hong Kong

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets remained in a holding pattern overnight with US stocks largely unchanged as Treasury yields and USD moved lower, with Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Senate restating the Reserve’s desire to keep rates on hold. The possibility of a Brexit delay sent Pound Sterling zooming, lifting Euro in sympathy. Looking first

73

Macro Afternoon

The good mood from overnight on the basis that the US/China trade talks are progressing forward has turned here in Asia, with red across the board. Stocks have declined, with Chinese bourses in the lead as the Yuan fix strengthened considerably, while Pound Sterling rockets higher on the possibility of a delayed Brexit. The Shanghai

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Market sentiment was buoyed yesterday by the inference by the somewhat positive news surrounding the US/China trade talks, with stocks on both sides of the Atlantic rising, albeit with some hesitation towards the end of the session. The USD lost ground against most of the majors while US Treasuries are still flat.

57

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets were given a boost this morning with some progress on the US/China trade talks, building on the positive mood on Wall Street on Friday night, with the Chinese Yuan firming to new six month highs against USD. The Shanghai Composite is up more than 4% going into the close, soaring above 2900

0

Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  Looking at Chinese stocks first, where last week saw the Shanghai Composite shoot higher after its recent breakout, getting slightly above the 2800 point level as confidence returned.   This was mainly due to more optimism over the US/China trade talks plus the possibility of more internal stimulus, as confidence continues to build

92

Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are following the overnight lead with some mild falls and scratch results across the region. The USD rallied against Yuan and Yen, whereas the oversold Aussie has had a little bounce back following the Chinese coal debacle. The Shanghai Composite is steady going into the close, basically up only a handful of

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A muted night on risk markets with US stocks retreating and European bourses treading water as continued Brexit and US/Chinese trade talks have stalled – or at least no news is being positioned as bad news. The USD remained relatively strong overnight, with the only standout being continued falls in the Aussie dollar

56

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks generally rose across the region with most activity in currency markets as the Chinese coal closure and the latest domestic unemployment print pushed the Australian dollar all over the place. The Shanghai Composite fell in the latter half of the session, falling 0.3% to close at 2751 points as its bear market rally pauses.