Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The Sell in May crowd began in earnest on Friday night, following the window dressing of Thursday, sending Wall Street down nearly 3% as caution returned following many US states jumping the gun on re-opening their economies. The Trump administrations deflection on blaming China for everything is turning into a proper diplomatic

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Macro Afternoon

Risk was definitely off today here in Asia as traders started the Sell in May and go away meme with gusto, particularly locally as Aussie stocks slumped. Commodity currencies continue to get sold off against USD with the Loonie and Aussie falling sharply while European currencies continue to ascend vs King Dollar with Swiss Franc, Pound

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  You guessed it – sentiment swung back to fear again last night as a slew of European data and the latest ECB meeting failed to rekindle animal spirits on stock markets. US weekly initial. jobless claims spiked higher than expected and combined with all this bad news flow, markets did a bit

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Macro Afternoon

More risk taking – literally – as stock markets continued higher on the surge on Wall Street overnight as the US prepares to reopen its economy as fast as possible, despite not flattening its curve in any shape or fashion. The ECB meeting tonight is likely to be a repeat of the Fed’s with the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Sentiment swings again with hope around new treatments for COVID-19 while the Fed held to its stimulating course in the FOMC meeting overnight as the first quarter GDP figures slumped as expected. Wall Street had priced this in and lifted strongly across the board with commodities also rallying as oil prices jumped

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Macro Afternoon

Only local stocks put on meaningful gains on Asian risk markets today with the Australian and New Zealand dollar both outperforming against USD. The latest (ha!) CPI data put a little rocket underneath the Aussie, now over 65 cents vs USD but that is part of a wider weaker USD move as traders adjust for

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Australia’s dividend massacre

Via Bloomie: Australian dividend forecasts have been cut the most since 2009, exceeding similar moves across some of the world’s largest markets this year. It’s not a fair comparison given, owing to different tax regimes, many other jurisdictions prefer corporate buybacks to dividends for capital management. They have been slashed as well. Still, in absolute

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  It’s getting tiresome but predictable as sentiment continues to swing from hope to caution as US stocks pulled back due to more earnings guidance being muted or reduced once more, particularly tech stocks and big caps. While the global COVID-19 new cases continue to drop, the US is still far from flattening

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Macro Afternoon

The solid start to the trading week has tripped a little bit here in Asia with local and Japanese bourses putting in scratch sessions with gold heading below $1700USD per ounce as oil prices continue to fall. The Shanghai Composite is flat going into the close, currently at 2813 points while the Hang Seng Index

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stock markets continued to rise overnight despite big falls in oil prices and other commodities, as Western nations continue with their plans for early lockdown releases in response to the impact of COVID-19 on economic life. The supply shock of oil has seen WTI fall back below $14 or over 25% as

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Macro Afternoon

Its a very solid start to the trading week here in Asia with all stock markets rising following the strong lead from Wall Street on Friday night. The USD is selling off, particularly against Kiwi and Aussie as Yen buying fails to bring the bears out in Japan either as PM Abe indicates more cash

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Sentiment swung wildly on Friday night particularly later in the session as Wall Street rallied, leaving Europe behind as more economic lockdown easings were announced across the globe. Commodities lifted, taking commodity currencies with them as the Australian dollar almost hit a three week high, while gold and copper advanced as Treasury

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Macro Afternoon

Outside the local market its been a very soft finish to the trading week for Asian shares, with Chinese markets off the strongest, the Shanghai Composite down over 1% going into the close, currently at 2810 points while the Hang Seng Index is falling at the close too, currently down 0.6% to 23863 points, as

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Coked-up ASX charges on alone

Aaaand, we’re off. The Australian dollar is soft this morning: Bonds are stable: The coked-up kiddies that trade ASX have the bourse trying to rally despite a weak lead and falling futures: Baked brains and bleeding nostrils have Big Iron up: Big Gas up prematurely: Big Gold looking strong: Big Banks the opposite: And Big

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stock markets were unable to translate gains in Asia to anything substantial in the northern hemisphere overnight as caution reigned with disappointing news regarding an antiviral drug plus a big spike in initial jobless gains keep sentiment tempered.  Euro fell on internal EU squabbling over debt agreements while commodities were mixed with

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Macro Afternoon

Following the bounceback on Wall Street overnight, risk markets in Asia are in the main putting runs on the board with another surge in undollar assets going into the London open, with commodity currencies in particularly lifting significantly. The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 0.2% going into the close, currently at 2847 points while the

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Goldman: Shares to fall as superannuation ‘Ponzi scheme’ unravels

Matthew Ross of Goldman Sachs estimates that up to $44 billion could be withdrawn from superannuation funds by people who have been financially hit by the pandemic. This is based on 10% of superannuation members withdrawing $20,000 of funds. Ross’ estimate compares to the federal government’s forecast withdrawals of $27 billion and the superannuation industry’s

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Markets are again swinging between hope and delusion with equity markets pushing higher as the oil price “rallied” from its extreme oversold lows, while another round of probably near useless US stimulus announced by Congress was not overshadowed by the reality of still more growing number of new cases of COVID-19 around

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Macro Afternoon

Risk markets in Asia are fighting back late in the session after a mixed start this morning after a solid selloff on Wall Street overnight. Oil prices have gone the opposite way, gaining earlier before selling off going into the London open, with Brent now at 1999 levels!  The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 0.4%

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ASX bath of blood fills with oil

The Australian dollar is holding up all things considered:  One reason is RBA tapering has frozen bond yields in situ. Stoopid: XJO is rapidly unwinding the bear market rally: Big Iron is drawn in: Big Gas is aflame once more. Not enough! Big Gold marking time: Big Banks are breaking down fast. BOQ is at

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Market reaction was again dominated by breakdown in the oil price complex as June WTI crude futures fell nearly 70% while Brent was down 30%, both at near 20 year lows. This dragged the wider risk complex down with Wall Street and European stocks tumbling and setting back the hopeful rally significantly.

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Macro Afternoon

Two factors are combining to make stock markets nervous in today’s session here in Asia with news regarding the ill health of Kim Jong Un and the chaotic nature of oil prices. The Shanghai Composite is down over 1% going into the close, currently at 2819 points while the Hang Seng Index is down twice

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Time to buy stocks?

Via Global Macro Monitor: Caveat freaking emptor. After the Fed effectively fully nationalized the financial markets by bailing out junk bonds on April 9th, turning Wall Street into a Soviet Sausage Factory,  almost any type of analysis, which was on its way out anyway,  was rendered completely meaningless. The new rocket scientists on Wall Street are the market Kremlinologists,

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Sydney Airport passengers collapse 97%

AlphaBeta’s latest weekly consumption tracker listed travel as among the hardest hit sectors of the Australian economy, with expenditure down 84% from ‘normal’ levels: It’s no surprise that within the travel industry, airlines are the hardest hit owing to the COVID-19 lockdown. Yesterday, Sydney Airport reported that its passenger numbers were down 97% so far