By Chris Becker Quelle surprise – a night where stocks actually go down! US stocks fell over half a percent across the board, following a poor showing in Europe as nerves mount from the Great Bond Selloff. US Treasury yields reached a new high near 2.7%, with German bunds also selling off to a new two
Via the until now bullish Viktor Shvets of Macquarie: We ask whether a rise in volatilities is inevitable and what might be the consequences for asset classes and public policies. Investors are currently residing in a surreal world of low volatilities and spreads, ignoring potentially radical shifts in monetary and fiscal policies and unwinding of extraordinary
A relatively modest start to the week here in Asia with most stock markets having small gains or pauses in their large rallies, embiggened by a weaker USD even as the Trump Presidency tries to jawbone it three ways to Friday. Earnings season has begun in Australia, which has given the local bourse a lift,
The AUD is still trading above 81 cents: Yields have flamed out for now: The ASX donkey has been dragged higher 20 points versus US’ galloping thoroughbred: Dalian is sinking at the open despite the crashing USD: Chinese port stocks have begun to reverse and if that rundown continues then prices will fall earlier than I
By Chris Becker Another week of record highs in US stocks, but other markets are less sanguine, as the really interesting moves are in currency and bond markets. The US dollar is being jawboned down against everything as part of the Trump anti-globalist push, while US Treasury yields are solidly above 2.6%, the uncle point
A pause in risk taking here in Asia today, with almost all stock markets retracing or treading water. The USD sunk to a new three year low against the majors, particularly Yen as markets react to the strange Trump protectionism and globalism policies, with more likely tonight at Davos. The ECB is meeting as well,
By Chris Becker A strange night on risk markets with key reversals in most stock markets while commodities burst higher precipitated by a big sell-off in USD. This was on the back of comments from Treasury Secretary Mnunchin at Davos as the Trump Administration clear protectionist goal was made clear at the event. Recapping action
A generally positive day in Asian stock markets, although Japanese stocks felt the weight of a strengthening Yen, but also a weaker USD as the Aussie pipped above 80 cents again. Earning season is in full swing on US stocks and there’s no real surprises as the risk-on mood proliferates, with oil and gold rising,
DXY is weak across Asia but the AUD/USD is resisting going higher: Local bonds are also bid: And XJO is hanging on for what that’s worth: Dalian rebounding a little: But Big Iron is down despite some big Macquarie price upgrades: Big Gas is up as the ravaging of the east coast economy pays dividends
By Chris Becker The Trump trade war has not yet upset markets, overshadowed by stellar earnings result from tech heavies, which sent the NASDAQ soaring, pulling industrial stocks higher. The USD backpedalled again while US Treasury yields finally strengthened, as other sovereign bonds also put on gains. Commodities rallied too in this risk-on wide move.
The Aussie dollar is still poised at breakout within a bullish ascending triangle: XJO has the same pattern. It’s just that it is being humiliated by the S&P500: Aussie yields are also still poised at breakout: But Dalian is going the other way today as China’s inventory Everest weighs: Big Iron is fading: Big Gas
By Chris Becker All eyes were on the US Senate last night as the impasse over the government shutdown seems to be resolved, sending US stocks higher, surging late in the session, although helped along by very positive earnings. European markets were also positive albeit with more modest gains, while the USD strengthened ever so
A mixed start to the week as Asia reacts to the surprise US government shutdown with only Chinese stocks advancing. Currency markets were relatively stable with the Aussie dollar remaining under 80 cents vs USD while oil lifted slightly. In mainland China the Shanghai Composite has continued its advance above resistance at 3400 points, now up
By Chris Becker Another week of new record highs on US stock markets and fear of missing out is still winning versus fear of the subsequent and inevitable correction. The real fear remains in the biggest market in the world – bonds. While technically not yet in a bear market, all the signs are there that
DXY was stable Friday night despite fears of government shutdown: AUD also stalled against DMs: It was mixed against EMs: Gold is coiling for another spring or sniffing a DXY bottom: Oil looks headed into a correction. Although US rigs pulled back the IEA forecast a boom ahead: Base metals were mixed: Big miners too:
A mixed end to the trading week here in Asia with again most of the action in bond markets as the Aussie 10 year yield up another 5 points as US Treasuries head to a yearly high. Most stock markets finished flat outside of China, while commodities dropped, particularly oil markers as the Aussie dollar
By Chris Becker All the action overnight was in bond markets as US stocks vacillated over the potential US government shutdown. Treasury yields hit 2.6% – the so-called Uncle Point – with European sovereigns also advancing. European stocks did better overnight, except the FTSE as the USD retreated back from its very weak earlier advance.
Not a good follow through here in Asia after the surge overnight in US stocks with most markets retreating or putting in scratch sessions. Official Chinese data has yet to be published, but unofficially its all on par or above, and that’s keeping risk markets on standby for now, including US futures which are flat.
Via BofAML: …expect upward revisions to continue through earnings season, particularly as guidance trends have remained strong as well…we expect more details as earnings season progresses; several companies also indicated they will provide more clarity at upcoming Investor Days. Some early details have emerged from the 20+ S&P 500 companies that announced one-time bonuses, where
By Chris Becker What correction? It seems stocks can’t actually fall anymore, unlike crypto currencies, with US bourses rebounding back to new highs. The catalyst this time was taxation as both Apple and Bank of America signalled savings and other chances in the wake of the GOP tax bill. European stocks retreated even as the
Dalian is open and going nowhere fast: The Australian dollar loved consumer and credit data. DXY is tumbling again too. AUD is within a whisker of 80 cents: XJO hated same and is down sharply towards 6000 again as the Aussie dollar sits on it like circus elephant. Head and shoulders topping patterns are forming
By Chris Becker Yes, stocks do fall! Last night saw the return of US traders after a long weekend and they weren’t happy after realizing trajectories like this were for rockets, not stock markets. Oil prices dragged energy stocks and then industrials with them with very large intrasession ranges suggesting a big turnaround is afoot.
DXY firmed a touch last night but was hardly convincing: AUD stopped too: Against EMs it’s roughly stable: Gold firmed: Brent flamed out: As did base metals: Big miners were hammered: EM stocks eased: Junk too: US yields piled through 2% at the short end but the curve flattened: Bunds were bid: US stocks roared