Australian Shares

4

Macro Morning

Sour risk sentiment seems to be gravitating along Wall Street again with another 2% drop across the main bourses overnight, as the fallout from the selloff on the bond market continued. Ten year Treasury yields popped through the 1.5% level with Fed Chair Powell disappointing the market with his recent comments as the USD soared

133

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are swimming in a sea of red today due to the growing lack of confidence on Wall Street overnight, as risk sentiment reverses yet again as bond markets continue their own selloff.  Bitcoin found a lot of sellers this afternoon after building up and beyond the $50K level with last week’s intrasession resistance

2

Macro Morning

Another reverse in risk sentiment overnight with Wall Street properly falling led by tech stocks this time as the bond market continues its selloff. A possible catalyst was a poor US private employment print but also the latest ISM services PMI didn’t excite, reducing expectations. The USD came back against most of the majors, with

156

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are pushing higher today despite the stumble on Wall Street overnight, as risk sentiment reverses yet again despite a temporary reprieve on bond markets and a slightly weaker USD.  Bitcoin is building up again after its previous weak start to the trading week, again pushing back toward the $50K level with last week’s

6

How do equities go amid inflation?

GaveKal asks the quadrillion dollar question today. How do stock markets perform in inflationary environments? Despite a roiling US bond market sell-off, equity investors had until Thursday taken comfort from the Federal Reserve saying it will stay easy for longer and, hey, what’s not to like about a “little” inflation? The idea of this paper

5

Macro Morning

The USD reversed course overnight, with Euro in particularly shooting higher on the back of firm EZ wide inflation figures, although German retail sales disappointed. Wall Street got the stumbles and stalls though as Treasury yields were ranged bound overnight. Commodities were mixed with copper rising nearly 3% while oil came off slightly again as

121

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have tried to follow the rebound from overnight markets, but have failed across the region, with this relief rally seemingly short lived. The March RBA meeting resulted in no change with the Aussie still depressed following its big reversal last week as other major currencies remain under the thumb of a stronger USD

1

Macro Morning

Shares have bounced back from their volatile end of week shock following the bond market implosion, but the same can’t be said for currencies or indeed bonds, with Treasury yields lifting again overnight.  Very strong US economic data is keeping the USD high, with the latest ISM manufacturing report the best in four years while

87

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have rebounded sharply across the region, starting the week on a more positive tone compared to the carnage on bond and currency markets at the end of last week, with the falls on Wall Street seemingly contained already as S&P futures bounceback in kind. Bitcoin has started the week meakly as expecting, opening

0

Macro Morning

The bond market implosion is having broader impacts, particularly on currency markets as a run to safety to the USD on Friday night saw major currencies plummet in value, taking some stock markets with them.  Treasury yields actually pulled back some in the wake of a very solid US PCE report but the Australian dollar

252

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have fallen sharply across the region, in a correlated response to the big reversal on Wall Street overnight as the bond market flipped out. Bitcoin is falling after being range traded the last couple of days, now breaking towards the $47K level with the four hourly chart showing the next support level at

3

Macro Morning

The real action on overnight markets is not Gamestop shares or Bitcoin, but the international bond market, which spiked yet again as a weak Treasury auction overshadowed solid US economic news. Yields increased dramatically across the curve, with the bond selloff spilling over to Wall Street with 2-3% falls as shaky confidence previously soothed by

36

Taper tantrum 2.0 begins as markets catch hysteria virus

What a business cycle this is. Juiced by virus amphetamines it is moving extraordinarily fast. Last year we had the crash down, the crash up, a depression, thumping stimulus and K-shaped recovery, a gold boom and bust on debasement, growth stock bubble and now bust plus value rotation, an alleged commodity super-cycle, and now, one

157

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have rebounded firmly across the region, in a correlated response to the bounce (aka BTFD) on Wall Street overnight as central bankers soothed nerves. Bitcoin is relatively stable, trading in a tight trading range again, currently hovering just above the $50K level with the four hourly chart showing the key $48 and $51

6

Macro Morning

Wall Street’s nerves were calmed, soothed and appeased by the Fed last night as Chair Powell patted and stroked the risk complex as it purred along nicely again.  The Treasury bond market saw another blip higher in 10 year yields, while the USD was largely unchanged, several currencies did make new highs – especially the

92

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have fallen sharply across the region, responding to the poor lead from Wall Street and then the wafer thin assurances from the Fed overnight, as S&P futures tumble amid some really fragile risk sentiment. Bitcoin is having yet another interesting 24 hours, getting back to the $50K level with a modest 10% gain

1

Credit Suisse upgrade profits boom

Via Credit Suisse, now aligned with Goldman uber-bulls: Raising S&P 500 Target to 4300 on Earnings Upside and Reopening Prospects We are raising our 2021 S&P 500 price target to 4300 from 4200, representing10.9% upside from current levels, and 14.5% for the year. This follows an increase from 4050 on January 7 (seeS&P 500 to

0

Macro Morning

Wall Street is getting quite nervous, having suffered five straight days of declines in a row and was all set to completely rollover last night, but some calming words from the Fed chair abated that decline at the last minute. This is all due to the ructions on bond markets as yields continue to spike,

17

The tech bust is here

Two investing legends – Ray Dalio and Jeremy Grantham – have recently put different cases for why parts of the technology component of stock markets are in a bubble vulnerable to steep correction. Grantham argued that the extreme valuations in growth stocks and the pervasiveness of crazy behaviour were dead giveaways that a bust was

97

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are rising despite the poor lead from Wall Street overnight, as oil prices rise to new highs and bond yields continue to spike with S&P futures looking to claw back last night’s losses. Bitcoin is having a grand 24 hours after the Musk man pushed the whole edifice over, its now back at

4

Ray Dalio: Are stocks in a bubble?

Bridgewater doyen, Ray Dalio, takes on the quadrillion dollar question today. Are stocks in a bubble? He breaks it down via series of measures that breaks out a cohort of “bubble stocks” while the broader market is only expensive. This looks to me like Mr Dalio is arguing that we have K-shaped bubble, if you

7

Macro Morning

The NASDAQ dragged Wall Street down overnight with a very unsteady start to the trading week across the major risk markets. It’s all about the bond and currency markets again, with 10 year Treasury yields again pushing higher, this time almost through the 1.4% level, while the USD continues to lose ground especially against commodity

82

Macro Afternoon

Another mixed start to the trading week with Asian stock markets going all over the place in response to a mixed lead from Wall Street on Friday night, as the ructions from bond and currency markets outweigh stocks. Bitcoin gapped even higher on resumption of trade this morning – almost $57K – but has pulled

8

Macro Morning

Wall Street finished Friday with another whimpering session as risk spirits abated through most of the trading week. All eyes remain on currency and interest rate markets instead, with 10 year Treasury yields again pushing through the 1.3% level, pulling up peripheral bonds as well, while the USD fell back sharply as the Australian dollar

194

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets have all broadly sold off in response to the poor lead from Wall Street throughout the short trading week, as strong US economic data continues to push risk sentiment lower. The latest retail sales figures locally didn’t cause much movement in the Australian dollar which has been resilient to USD strength and

3

Stocks to buy as yields rise

The bond back-up continued in the US overnight and caused some dyspepsia for stocks. JPM has more on where this leads: As bond yields have moved up, there has been a general focus on whether this will 1) become a problem for the broader market, due to elevated multiples and 2) whether it will continue

5

Macro Morning

Wall Street dropped for the third day in a row despite yet more strong economic and pandemic data with USD finally pulling back after its week long trend upwards. 10 year Treasury yields remain elevated at year highs, pushing through the 1.3% level at one stage while commodities were mixed as copper continued its own