Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

Another night of divergent fortunes as the triple witching month/quarter/FY end weighed on stocks markets with European markets selling off after Asian hesitation while Wall Street continued to rock higher into orbit, although tech stocks pulled back slightly into the close. The latest German unemployment figures came is as expected, while UK GDP slipped further. 

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Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are wavering yet again in response to the concerns on the widening delta variant of COVID-19, although local stocks are still being fairly robust despite the complacent, incompetent and ridiculous Federal government response. Gold is selling off yet again, now down to $1750USD per ounce while Bitcoin has been unable to shrug off

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As Aussies cower, Americans travel in droves

Schadenfreude is a bitch. As 12m Aussies cower under the doona, watching TV punctuated by The Idiot’s ‘travel Australia’ advertisements paid for those under house arrest, Americans are traveling in droves: On the current trend, American travel will be back at full volume during Q3. It won’t stop there, either. Massive savings are set to

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Macro Morning

After Asian stocks sold off yesterday, last night saw more drifting and hesitation from European and American markets, although the S&P500 did briefly put in a nominal new record high. The USD rose against all the majors except Yen, with gold making a new monthly low, while commodity prices were mixed with iron ore losing

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are selling off in response to the widening delta variant of COVID-19, although local stocks are largely unchanged. Tonight’s OPEC+ meeting is keeping commodity prices volatile while gold remains in yet another holding pattern alongside most other currencies as we await the NFP print on Friday. Bitcoin is shrugging off the continued

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Macro Morning

Last night saw a clear divergence in risk taking with the all-in crowd heading back to US tech stocks with the S&P500 also putting in a nominal new record high as European stocks sold off sharply. Risk markets are waiting for tonight’s OPEC+ meeting with oil prices retracing 2% in anticipation while Treasury yields fell,

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Macro Afternoon

Yet another staid open for risk markets here in Asia as we kick off another trading week with stocks largely unchanged. The two major economic events this week – OPEC+ on Tuesday and NFP on Friday – are keeping things in a holding pattern. Gold is finding some buying support early, as is Bitcoin, with

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Wall Street flip-flops all over equities

Good is bad news. Bad news is good news. Bad news is bad news. Good news is good news. News is bad, good news. Good, bad is news! Today’s brace of equity strategist output comes from the usual sources as they try to keep pace with rapidly dating narratives. Goldman Sachs is considering that it

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Macro Morning

Friday night was relatively mixed for risk markets with Wall Street putting in a new record high while European bourses were mixed as economic news was also mixed amid the coming of the triple witching month/quarter/year. Treasury yields jumped on the latest PCE inflation print, up over 10bps while commodity prices were mixed as oil

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Macro Morning

Good economic and political news overnight pushed stock markets higher as we near the end of the trading week and the triple witching month/quarter/year. Wall Street made new highs on the back of a new infrastructure bill and better than expected durable goods order report, lifting European bourses along the way as the German IFO

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Macro Afternoon

Steady as she goes for risk markets here in Asia, with stocks largely unchanged except locally with the ASX200 continuing its pre-holiday selloff. All eyes are on overnight stock markets to see if momentum can be refound with the Bank of England meeting later tonight alongside the latest initial jobless claims from the US. Currency

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Pain trade! FAAMG (and WAAAX) are back

For the past few months, MB Fund has undertaken a pivot away from the inflation/value trade.  We were early getting into the revival of value, having forecast the inflation scare well in advance. During the scare, we took a lot of profits on winning trades in banks, miners and cyclicals. We pivoted this equity exposure

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are mixed with a lack of a co-ordinated rebound in response to the buy the dip rally on Wall Street with local shares affected by more COVID restrictions, while risk currencies remain stalled in the wake of still strong USD. Gold and silver remain dead flat while Bitcoin continues its own struggle

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Commodity supercyclers begin to squirm

For the last few months, MB has had to battle a torrent of Wall Street (and local) drivel about a “new commodities supercycle”. This notion was never well-thought through. It mistook a global inventory supercycle for some kind of MMT supercycle. It mistook post-pandemic supply-side frictions for some kind of inflation supercycle. It mistook a

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Macro Morning

Risk markets remained upbeat again overnight but with more modest sessions as the bounceback from the Fed’s seismic shift continues.  Wall Street closed about 0.5% higher across the board while the bond market saw Treasury yields fall back as US existing home sales also declined while house prices continued to rise. The USD continued its

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Macro Afternoon

Its not quite fully risk back on yet, although Asian share markets are in the main rebounding in response to a big buy the dip rally on Wall Street overnight, while risk currencies remain stalled in the wake of still strong USD. The VIX is pulling back from its rapid rise while gold and silver

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Morgan Stanley: We’re passed “peak Fed”

Morgan Stanley with the note. Rate of change is the most important and misunderstood idea in macromarkets: Tapering is Tightening but Tightening began months ago. The Fed’s pivot to begin the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, but markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago in our view. It’s exactly what the mid cycle

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Macro Morning

Risk is back as oversold stock markets regained confidence overnight, helped along by ECB’s Lagarde’s comments about changing policy settings too soon. The Dow leapt nearly 2% while European bourses all had solid sessions, which should translate into a reversal of sentiment here in Asia. With some mild falls in USD, commodity prices came back

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Equity strategists drown in Fed maelstrom

The equity market narratives coming from Wall Street are starting to sound positively hysterical. Throughout this year we have seen three dominant narratives: Good news is bad news as rising inflation will bust the stock market pushed largely by BofA. Bad news is good news as temporary inflation giving way to deflation will keep stock

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Macro Morning

The hawks are squawking as stock markets fell across the risk complex on Friday night with continued fallout from the recent US Federal Reserve meeting. Wall Street tumbled, led by the Dow which was down for the fifth session in a row, while bond markets saw more yields rising on the short end of the

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are finishing the week in mixed fashion yet again, echoing similar moves on Wall Street as seismic shift in Federal Reserve intentions continues to resonate throughout risk markets. Gold is struggling again going into the London session, currently just above the $1783USD per ounce level after being dumped below the $1800 level

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Schvets: Lowflation here forever now

There are not many asset strategists that are worth the time of day. Macquarie’s excellent Viktor Shvets is an exception. I agree with just about everything that he writes below. It can’t happen here–Why not? Is US really different to Japan or Eurozone? One of the most consistent macro themes over the last two decades

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Macro Morning

Share markets were largely contained as the USD extended its gains against the majors following the latest US Federal Reserve meeting. Wall Street remains spooked but has some signs of life remaining with local stocks almost unphased as the Australian dollar skirts new weekly lows. Bond markets are flipping around as well with short dated

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have reacted in mixed fashion to the overnight moves on Wall Street as the latest Fed meeting transmits a more hawkish approach sooner. The USD continues to strengthen against the major currencies  with gold struggling going into the London session, currently just above the $1800USD per ounce level. Bitcoin is vainly trying

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Macro Morning

A seismic shift in risk markets overnight with the US Federal Reserve moving its so-called dot plot into the affirmative for more rate hikes, sooner than expected. This spooked Wall Street and saw the USD soar against all the major currencies, plus wiping out gold prices.  Bond markets saw a big increase overall in yields

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are mixed again with Chinese bourses continuing to fall, with Japanese stocks joining in while local issues are unchanged. The USD continues to strengthen against the major currencies as volatility drops going into tonight’s Federal Reserve meeting. Gold is trying to lift off the floor after selling off overnight and is slowly

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Macro Morning

Mixed economic news overnight from the US saw Wall Street wobble and turn away from yet another record session high with the latest retail sales much weaker than expected. Currency markets were mixed although Pound Sterling and Aussie dollar fell back against USD while Euro was contained yet again. Bond markets saw a slight increase

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have diverged with Chinese bourses (except the satellite ASX200) dropping while Japanese stocks are helped along by a much lower Yen as USD continues to strengthen against the major currencies. Gold is struggling after selling off overnight and is barely moving at the $1866USD per ounce level with traders of all sorts

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Macro Morning

The first session of the trading week was a modest one overnight and while tech stocks on the NASDAQ bloomed ever higher, most other equity markets stalled out as bond yields rose across the board. Currency markets were equally sanguine without much intrasession volatiltiy although Yen sold off appreciably against USD while commodity prices saw