Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

Wall Street and European share markets came back overnight, putting aside concern over inflation and supply chain problems despite the latest US CPI print coming in stronger than expected, with tech heavy stocks lifting the whole risk complex. The USD however had a big reversal in direction against both the majors and commodity currencies in

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks continue to pull back across the region as rising concerns over inflation and COVID related economic slowdowns leading up to tonights US CPI print create a cautious mood. The USD remains strong against most of the risk currencies, with gold hovering just above the $1760USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin continues its little pause

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Macro Morning

Wall Street and European share markets stumbled again overnight as concern over inflation and the upcoming US earnings season continued to weigh on risk taking. The USD remains relatively strong against most of the major currencies, with Euro breaking down again, and USDJPY up to a three year high. The bond market saw a minor

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are pulling back across the region as a cavalcade of concerns create a cautious mood with fears of inflation and Evergrande’s default weighing the most. The USD remains strong against most of the risk currencies, although the USDJPY pair finally pulled back, while gold has slightly pushed higher to the $1760USD per ounce level.

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Peak earnings ahead

BofA with the note: 3Q: Expect an in-line quarter, but guidance could be ugly S&P 5003Q earnings kick off this week. Following another huge beat in 2Q, 3Q EPS has risen 3% over the past three months to $49.06 (+27% YoY); typically the estimate falls by4% into the quarter. Consensus forecasts imply the 2-year growth

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Macro Morning

Wall Street fumbled again overnight as concern over rising energy prices and inflation continued to weigh on stock markets with European equities also mixed despite a much lower Euro. USD remained relatively strong against most of the major currencies, particularly Yen but commodity currencies like the Australian dollar are rallying as 10 year Treasury yields

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Macro Afternoon

The start of the trading week is here, and while regional risk analysts are pointing squarely to a probable Evergrande default and then overseas to the underwhelming US unemployment print on Friday night, the risk takers writ large are bidding everything higher, save local stocks. The USD is strengthening against most of the risk currencies,

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“Fire and ice” correction coming for stocks

This week’s round-up of Wall Street’s smartest guys in the room begins with a bearish Morgan Stanley: We are now calling for Fire AND Ice. We have been calling for a mid-cycle correction to happen one of two ways: • Fire: tightening financial conditions as the Fed signals tapering is coming •Ice: growth disappointment particularly

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Macro Morning

The risk world was surprised by a much lower than expected US unemployment print as the latest jobless claims undershot by over half. European equities all finished lower while Wall Street’s bounceback stalled out completely, leaving Asian share markets with a big headwind to start the new trading week.  USD remained relatively strong against most

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Macro Afternoon

The end of the trading week is here, with mainland Chinese stocks returning to the fray as traders await the all important Friday night US unemployment print, with Treasury yields broadcasting new four month highs. Most stock markets across Asia are putting in very solid returns in response to the breakout in both European shares

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Macro Morning

Wall Street followed through on its bounceback with a new intraweek high heading into tonights employment print as the latest initial jobless claims buoyed spirits. European equities followed suit and were supported by a slightly lower Euro as the USD remains relatively strong against most of the major currencies, although the Australian dollar pushed through

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Macro Afternoon

A much more positive mood as we head towards the end of the trading week and the all important Friday night US unemployment print. Most stock markets across Asia are putting in very solid returns with the Hang Seng finally breaking out of its funk with European shares looking to play catchup to Wall Street

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Macro Morning

Wall Street was able to bounceback yet again after European equities sold off sharply overnight with yet another reversal in risk sentiment as the latest machinations around the US debt ceiling and the leadup to the non-farm payroll/employment print builds with an uptick in private jobs data. Bond markets saw a stretch in the yield

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Macro Afternoon

The trading week continues to flip and flop between hope and fear in Asia with another red day across stock markets as the selloff in bond markets becomes more crucial going into Friday nights US unemployment print. The USD is gaining against most of the currencies, not helped by the expected hike from the RBNZ

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Macro Morning

Wall Street and European equities bounced back sharply overnight with yet another reversal in risk sentiment as the latest US ISM services and European retail sales print buoyed risk markets. Bond markets saw a small selloff with the 10 year Treasury yield blipping up to the 1.54% level as risk currencies remains contained as commodity

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Macro Afternoon

The mixed start to the trading week here in Asia continues with local stocks pulling back but not as much as feared given the selloff on Wall Street overnight or the growing property developer contagion in China. US stock futures are flat while the USD is strengthening against most of the risk currencies with gold

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The travel boom cometh

BofA with the note: The clouds are parting The COVID Delta clouds are passing and the sun is starting to shine again. Our high frequency economic indicators are inflecting higher, the economic data surprise index has turned and the bond market has taken notice. We think 3Q will prove to be the soft patch in

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When will the Tsar end the energy crisis?

Goldman with the note: This year’s tightness in European gas markets has highlighted the market’s vulnerability to Russian supply. Specifically, Gazprom’s decision not to book for October the full capacity available at one of the main pipelines that delivers gas to Germany poses an increased tightening risk to NW European gas balances and, hence, further

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Macro Morning

Wall Street fell sharply overnight to a new two month low as the Farcebook/Instagram dropout sent NASDAQ lower as wider concerns over stagflation also dominated. European shares couldn’t get out of their rut either with a lack of newsflow not helping while bond markets were range traded around recent yield lows. Currency markets diverged as

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Macro Afternoon

A very mixed start to the trading week here in Asia following the reversal in risk sentiment on Friday night on Wall Street, but its been overshadowing by the trading halt in Evergrande shares on speculation of a takoever and the absence of mainland Chinese risk trading due to a long holiday. Caution is the

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Volatility is back

Nordea with the note: Autumn has clearly arrived. It’s getting colder. Maybe that’s starting to be true also for markets. The past week brought with it the first lower lows in S&P 500 since the bottom in March 2020. Equity volatility has behaved strangely since May with spikes around VIX expiry every month. And beneath

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Wall Street: Don’t BTFD

Wall Street is turning increasingly bearish on stocks, catching up with MB. BoA: Q4 view: higher inflation, hawkish central banks, peak GDP & EPS= low/negativestock/creditreturns; sell rallies into Nov Fed taper; long H2 barbell of long inflation (e.g.commodities, energy, small cap, leisure, banks, Japan) & long quality (e.g. cash, utilities, staples, healthcare, apartments REITs); short

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Macro Morning

Action on Friday night risk markets was turned around due to a combination of new month window dressing and some certainty around US government funding which saw Treasury yields pull back below the 1.5% level and Wall Street rally just over 1% across the board. European shares were still troubled by the latest inflation print

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Macro Afternoon

A red day for Asian stocks as risk sentiment evaporates following the overnight machinations in US government and Chinese heavyhandedness regarding the Evergrande and energy disasters. The USD remains very firm against most of the risk currencies as the Australian dollar remains under stress following the recent postponement of European free trade talks while local

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Macro Morning

The newsflow overnight was dominated by politics in the US and the latest final GDP prints, which sent USD off into different trajectories against commodity currencies but kept it foot on the neck of Euro. Wall Street responded poorly to the GDP print and the miss in initial jobless claims, but also some end of

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MS: Cash isn’t trash!

Morgan Stanley has been the most bearish of the Wall Street houses for a while and it’s shaping up: Our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much

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Macro Morning

The slew of central bank speeches overnight gave risk markets a small reprieve from the recent selling, helped along by a burgeoning US pending home sales data print but the latest US government shutdown is still causing concern. Treasury yields roundtripped around the 1.5% level after making a three month high while European shares came

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are selling off sharply due to regional and internal problems, let alone the falls on Wall Street overnight in the wake of the latest chicanery in the US Congress (aka the opposite of Progress) as the bond market leads the way as yields spike to new monthly highs. The USD remains relatively firm

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Macro Morning

Bond markets were already leading the way in deciding where risk sentiment lied even before the Republican party screwed the pooch with their debt ceiling nonsense overnight with Wall Street tumbling nearly 3% as a result. Treasury yields spiked above the 1.5% to a three month high while European shares fell in sympathy as the

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are relatively mixed still with Chinese shares playing catchup as traders react to more Evergrande speculation while the ASX200 lost a lot of ground on more COVID concerns. The USD remains relatively firm against most of the risk currencies although the Australian dollar is coming back slightly, while gold remains under pressure as