Australian Shares

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Macquarie: Brace for volatility

Via the until now bullish Viktor Shvets of Macquarie: We ask whether a rise in volatilities is inevitable and what might be the consequences for asset classes and public policies. Investors are currently residing in a surreal world of low volatilities and spreads, ignoring potentially radical shifts in monetary and fiscal policies and unwinding of extraordinary

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Macro Afternoon

A relatively modest start to the week here in Asia with most stock markets having small gains or pauses in their large rallies, embiggened by a weaker USD even as the Trump Presidency tries to jawbone it three ways to Friday. Earnings season has begun in Australia, which has given the local bourse a lift,

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Macro Afternoon

A pause in risk taking here in Asia today, with almost all stock markets retracing or treading water. The USD sunk to a new three year low against the majors, particularly Yen as markets react to the strange Trump protectionism and globalism policies, with more likely tonight at Davos. The ECB is meeting as well,

0

ASX miracle crushed by Australian dollar

The AUD is still off a little after weak Kiwi inflation but its chart is clearly bullish: That has the XJO’s little miracle revival: Bonds are selling after an earlier bid that saw parity with US rates return briefly at the short end: Big Iron is firm: Big Gas too: Big Gold is starting to

6

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker A strange night on risk markets with key reversals in most stock markets while commodities burst higher precipitated by a big sell-off in USD. This was on the back of comments from Treasury Secretary Mnunchin at Davos as the Trump Administration clear protectionist goal was made clear at the event. Recapping action

4

Macro Afternoon

A generally positive day in Asian stock markets, although Japanese stocks felt the weight of a strengthening Yen, but also a weaker USD as the Aussie pipped above 80 cents again. Earning season is in full swing on US stocks and there’s no real surprises as the risk-on mood proliferates, with oil and gold rising,

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker The Trump trade war has not yet upset markets, overshadowed by stellar earnings result from tech heavies, which sent the NASDAQ soaring, pulling industrial stocks higher. The USD backpedalled again while US Treasury yields finally strengthened, as other sovereign bonds also put on gains. Commodities rallied too in this risk-on wide move.

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Macro Afternoon

A solid day in Asia with all stock markets putting on meaningful gains on the back of the re-opening of the US government overnight which led to more record highs on US bourses. The Aussie dollar has fallen back against all the majors in the wake of the BOJ meeting and the lack of Japanese

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker All eyes were on the US Senate last night as the impasse over the government shutdown seems to be resolved, sending US stocks higher, surging late in the session, although helped along by very positive earnings. European markets were also positive albeit with more modest gains, while the USD strengthened ever so

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed start to the week as Asia reacts to the surprise US government shutdown with only Chinese stocks advancing. Currency markets were relatively stable with the Aussie dollar remaining under 80 cents vs USD while oil lifted slightly. In mainland China the Shanghai Composite has continued its advance above resistance at 3400 points, now up

5

ASX and Australian dollar fall together

The Aussie dollar is soft today despite a weak USD: One wonders if the accumulating soft signals about an Aussie property bust are not taking their toll on rate hike expectations. Bonds are also bid a little: XJO has broken 6000 again: Dalian is up stable: And Big Iron firm: Not Big Gas: Big Gold

3

Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  Another week of new record highs on US stock markets and fear of missing out is still winning versus fear of the subsequent and inevitable correction. The real fear remains in the biggest market in the world – bonds. While technically not yet in a bear market, all the signs are there that

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed end to the trading week here in Asia with again most of the action in bond markets as the Aussie 10 year yield up another 5 points as US Treasuries head to a yearly high. Most stock markets finished flat outside of China, while commodities dropped, particularly oil markers as the Aussie dollar

2

Sad and sorry ASX sinks back to 6000

It’s a sad and sorry ASX today sinking back to 6000: Dalian has opened down: Big Iron is soft: Big Gas is falling: Big Gold too: Bond yields are still near breakout: Leaving Big Ponzifier nowhere to hide: But Big Realty is up: Aussie dollar right on 80 cents depressing it all.

3

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker All the action overnight was in bond markets as US stocks vacillated over the potential US government shutdown. Treasury yields hit 2.6% – the so-called Uncle Point – with European sovereigns also advancing. European stocks did better overnight, except the FTSE as the USD retreated back from its very weak earlier advance.

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Macro Afternoon

Not a good follow through here in Asia after the surge overnight in US stocks with most markets retreating or putting in scratch sessions. Official Chinese data has yet to be published, but unofficially its all on par or above, and that’s keeping risk markets on standby for now, including US futures which are flat.

7

Pathetic ASX bucks boom again

Dalian is up a bit today: But nothing can boost the pathetic ASX which is down marginally despite a spectacular lead from offshore: Big Iron has a soggy rebound: Big Gas is correcting solidly: Big Gold may sense a bottom for DXY: Big Sleazy enjoyed the mixed labour data but it needs a much less

7

Trump tax cut benefits flow

Via BofAML: …expect upward revisions to continue through earnings season, particularly as guidance trends have remained strong as well…we expect more details as earnings season progresses; several companies also indicated they will provide more clarity at upcoming Investor Days. Some early details have emerged from the 20+ S&P 500 companies that announced one-time bonuses, where

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker What correction? It seems stocks can’t actually fall anymore, unlike crypto currencies, with US bourses rebounding back to new highs. The catalyst this time was taxation as both Apple and Bank of America signalled savings and other chances in the wake of the GOP tax bill. European stocks retreated even as the

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Macro Afternoon

Not quite a bath of blood here in Asia as the reaction to the US stock selloff was very mild indeed. The USD came back a little against most of the majors dragging commodities down slightly, with most Asian bourses having their own very mild retreats. Nothing like the 25% in a day moves in

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Yes, stocks do fall! Last night saw the return of US traders after a long weekend and they weren’t happy after realizing trajectories like this were for rockets, not stock markets. Oil prices dragged energy stocks and then industrials with them with very large intrasession ranges suggesting a big turnaround is afoot.

8

Global market melt-up flames out

DXY firmed a touch last night but was hardly convincing: AUD stopped too: Against EMs it’s roughly stable: Gold firmed: Brent flamed out: As did base metals: Big miners were hammered: EM stocks eased: Junk too: US yields piled through 2% at the short end but the curve flattened: Bunds were bid: US stocks roared