By Chris Becker The Sell in May crowd began in earnest on Friday night, following the window dressing of Thursday, sending Wall Street down nearly 3% as caution returned following many US states jumping the gun on re-opening their economies. The Trump administrations deflection on blaming China for everything is turning into a proper diplomatic
Risk was definitely off today here in Asia as traders started the Sell in May and go away meme with gusto, particularly locally as Aussie stocks slumped. Commodity currencies continue to get sold off against USD with the Loonie and Aussie falling sharply while European currencies continue to ascend vs King Dollar with Swiss Franc, Pound
The Aussie dollar is selling strongly this morning: Bonds are basically glued to the spot: XJO is smashed 3% and more: Big Iron is down: Big Oil too: Big Gold is pounded: Big Banks have gone nowhere in this rally: Big Chunt thinks it’s all good as usual: The bullish hysteria has been upset by
By Chris Becker You guessed it – sentiment swung back to fear again last night as a slew of European data and the latest ECB meeting failed to rekindle animal spirits on stock markets. US weekly initial. jobless claims spiked higher than expected and combined with all this bad news flow, markets did a bit
More risk taking – literally – as stock markets continued higher on the surge on Wall Street overnight as the US prepares to reopen its economy as fast as possible, despite not flattening its curve in any shape or fashion. The ECB meeting tonight is likely to be a repeat of the Fed’s with the
By Chris Becker Sentiment swings again with hope around new treatments for COVID-19 while the Fed held to its stimulating course in the FOMC meeting overnight as the first quarter GDP figures slumped as expected. Wall Street had priced this in and lifted strongly across the board with commodities also rallying as oil prices jumped
Only local stocks put on meaningful gains on Asian risk markets today with the Australian and New Zealand dollar both outperforming against USD. The latest (ha!) CPI data put a little rocket underneath the Aussie, now over 65 cents vs USD but that is part of a wider weaker USD move as traders adjust for
Via Bloomie: Australian dividend forecasts have been cut the most since 2009, exceeding similar moves across some of the world’s largest markets this year. It’s not a fair comparison given, owing to different tax regimes, many other jurisdictions prefer corporate buybacks to dividends for capital management. They have been slashed as well. Still, in absolute
The Australian dollar breakout is catapulting the battler higher as expected: Bonds are stable: XJO is up moderately: Dalian is soft again: Big Iron is mixed. FMG is at new post-crash highs. Not discounting anything but good news much there: Big Gas is trading higher but remains at very high risk of more trouble with
By Chris Becker It’s getting tiresome but predictable as sentiment continues to swing from hope to caution as US stocks pulled back due to more earnings guidance being muted or reduced once more, particularly tech stocks and big caps. While the global COVID-19 new cases continue to drop, the US is still far from flattening
The solid start to the trading week has tripped a little bit here in Asia with local and Japanese bourses putting in scratch sessions with gold heading below $1700USD per ounce as oil prices continue to fall. The Shanghai Composite is flat going into the close, currently at 2813 points while the Hang Seng Index
It doesn’t pay to be rational, according to Bloomie: Australian shares may revisit the seven-year low reached last month as oil volatility and worries over the financial impact of the coronavirus dampened a recent rally. The S&P/ASX 200 index has reclaimed about 17% from the trough on March 23, having faltered last week after entering
By Chris Becker Stock markets continued to rise overnight despite big falls in oil prices and other commodities, as Western nations continue with their plans for early lockdown releases in response to the impact of COVID-19 on economic life. The supply shock of oil has seen WTI fall back below $14 or over 25% as
Its a very solid start to the trading week here in Asia with all stock markets rising following the strong lead from Wall Street on Friday night. The USD is selling off, particularly against Kiwi and Aussie as Yen buying fails to bring the bears out in Japan either as PM Abe indicates more cash
Via Goldman: …the S&P is now just a handful of mega stocks, because as the chart below shows the largest 5 stocks in S&P500 now account for 22% of market cap, even higher than during the dot com bubble. …the gap between the three month returns of the S&P 500 stock one standard deviation above
The Australian dollar is up and away this morning. It’s forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern. Or, an even more bullish cup and handle: Bonds are bid: But XJO is held back by banks which are on the way to retesting the lows: Big Dirt is soft all over: As banks sink with capital raises
By Chris Becker Sentiment swung wildly on Friday night particularly later in the session as Wall Street rallied, leaving Europe behind as more economic lockdown easings were announced across the globe. Commodities lifted, taking commodity currencies with them as the Australian dollar almost hit a three week high, while gold and copper advanced as Treasury
Outside the local market its been a very soft finish to the trading week for Asian shares, with Chinese markets off the strongest, the Shanghai Composite down over 1% going into the close, currently at 2810 points while the Hang Seng Index is falling at the close too, currently down 0.6% to 23863 points, as
Aaaand, we’re off. The Australian dollar is soft this morning: Bonds are stable: The coked-up kiddies that trade ASX have the bourse trying to rally despite a weak lead and falling futures: Baked brains and bleeding nostrils have Big Iron up: Big Gas up prematurely: Big Gold looking strong: Big Banks the opposite: And Big
By Chris Becker Stock markets were unable to translate gains in Asia to anything substantial in the northern hemisphere overnight as caution reigned with disappointing news regarding an antiviral drug plus a big spike in initial jobless gains keep sentiment tempered. Euro fell on internal EU squabbling over debt agreements while commodities were mixed with
Following the bounceback on Wall Street overnight, risk markets in Asia are in the main putting runs on the board with another surge in undollar assets going into the London open, with commodity currencies in particularly lifting significantly. The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 0.2% going into the close, currently at 2847 points while the
Matthew Ross of Goldman Sachs estimates that up to $44 billion could be withdrawn from superannuation funds by people who have been financially hit by the pandemic. This is based on 10% of superannuation members withdrawing $20,000 of funds. Ross’ estimate compares to the federal government’s forecast withdrawals of $27 billion and the superannuation industry’s
By Chris Becker Markets are again swinging between hope and delusion with equity markets pushing higher as the oil price “rallied” from its extreme oversold lows, while another round of probably near useless US stimulus announced by Congress was not overshadowed by the reality of still more growing number of new cases of COVID-19 around
Risk markets in Asia are fighting back late in the session after a mixed start this morning after a solid selloff on Wall Street overnight. Oil prices have gone the opposite way, gaining earlier before selling off going into the London open, with Brent now at 1999 levels! The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 0.4%
The Australian dollar is holding up all things considered: One reason is RBA tapering has frozen bond yields in situ. Stoopid: XJO is rapidly unwinding the bear market rally: Big Iron is drawn in: Big Gas is aflame once more. Not enough! Big Gold marking time: Big Banks are breaking down fast. BOQ is at
By Chris Becker Market reaction was again dominated by breakdown in the oil price complex as June WTI crude futures fell nearly 70% while Brent was down 30%, both at near 20 year lows. This dragged the wider risk complex down with Wall Street and European stocks tumbling and setting back the hopeful rally significantly.
Two factors are combining to make stock markets nervous in today’s session here in Asia with news regarding the ill health of Kim Jong Un and the chaotic nature of oil prices. The Shanghai Composite is down over 1% going into the close, currently at 2819 points while the Hang Seng Index is down twice
Via the excellent Viktor Schvets at Macquarie: Another question that preoccupies investors is whether we are facing a V or W or U-shaped recovery, and the possibility that what has started as an attack on the P&L might morph into a far more deadly and prolonged balance sheet recession. 1. First, regarding the shape of
Via Global Macro Monitor: Caveat freaking emptor. After the Fed effectively fully nationalized the financial markets by bailing out junk bonds on April 9th, turning Wall Street into a Soviet Sausage Factory, almost any type of analysis, which was on its way out anyway, was rendered completely meaningless. The new rocket scientists on Wall Street are the market Kremlinologists,
AlphaBeta’s latest weekly consumption tracker listed travel as among the hardest hit sectors of the Australian economy, with expenditure down 84% from ‘normal’ levels: It’s no surprise that within the travel industry, airlines are the hardest hit owing to the COVID-19 lockdown. Yesterday, Sydney Airport reported that its passenger numbers were down 97% so far
