Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

The strong inflation print from the US overnight has kept risk markets contained across Asia today with the added bonus of steep falls on Chinese bourses as the fallout to the middle kingdom economy continues. Currency markets remain constrained by a very strong USD with the Australian dollar now below the 69 handle while commodity

87

Macro Afternoon

Asian markets are trying to bounceback with only Chinese bourses doing the heavy lifting as local stocks were put off by the slump in consumer sentiment.  Currency markets remain spooked by a strong USD although the Australian dollar is trying to bounce off the 69 handle while commodity markets including oil are slowly lifting higher,

0

Macro Morning

Equity markets tried to bounce back last night, but Wall Street was a bit of a wet blanket with only modest bounces after critical support levels were broken earlier in the week and remain untouched. The bond market firmed somewhat instead with 10 year US Treasury yields roundtripping to fall back to the 2.9% level

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Macro Afternoon

Still not a good day for risk takers out in the Asian stock markets although a late bounce this afternoon has seen equity futures for Europe and Wall Street lift, dragging up some local bourses as well. Currency markets remain in line with a strong USD, with the Australian dollar almost crossing below the 69

1

Macro Morning

Another bath of blood on Wall Street overnight as critical support levels were broken across almost all risk markets, tipping us into bear market territory. This follows Friday night’s reaction to the solid US jobs report as the Fed will not be swayed from its aggressive rate rise agenda. 10 year US Treasury yields fell

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Macro Afternoon

Its another sea of red out there for Asian stocks as we start the new trading week in the shadow of big falls on European and US share markets on Friday night as the latest US jobs report solidifies the Fed’s stance on hiking rates. All the major currency pairs continue to fall with the

9

Stock market crash just getting started

So says BofA. I agree. The ‘Fed put’ is now the ‘Fed call’ unless or until inflation is brought under control. As Chair Powel has said, that only happens by him downsizing demand to fit with limited supply. That means a Us demand hiccup is inevitable, which will immediately spill over to Europe and China

0

Macro Morning

Following the previous flop on Thursday night, Wall Street was able to recover somewhat on Friday with only minor losses although the tech heavy NASDAQ is now pushing into bear market territory. The latest US jobs report was pretty solid and kept the sellers energised as the Fed will not be swayed from its aggressive

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have reacted in kind to the rout on Wall Street overnight with steep losses across the region – except for Japanese stocks. All the major currency pairs continue to lick their wounds after similar retracements overnight with the nearly unstoppable USD likely to strengthen after tonights US unemployment print. Oil markets are pushing

13

Macro Morning

What the hell was that? Wall Street completely flopped overnight with the NASDAQ losing 5%, the S&P500 down over 3% in a big reversal from the post-Fed exuberance. This is unsettling given the only couple times this has happened before was early 2008 and early 2020 before well, you know.. Bond markets saw a big

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have reacted in mixed fashion today to the overnight moves on Wall Street following the Fed’s highly expected 50 point rise in interest rates. There has been some minor retracement of the major currencies which all reversed their downward course against the nearly unstoppable USD, while oil markets are pushing higher again with

1

Macro Morning

Boom there it is! The Fed raises rates by 50 points, the USD goes into deep dive mode and Wall Street salivates, sending stocks up more than 3%! Bond markets saw only a mild pullback however, interestingly, with 10 year US Treasury yields pulling back to the 2.9% level. The USD lost ground against almost

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Macro Afternoon

Things were looking up for stocks here in Asia today but most bourses ended up in the red as other risk markets remain in a holding pattern waiting for the Fed to make its next move. The USD remains super strong against all the majors with Euro and Pound Sterling still under a lot of

0

Macro Morning

Overnight stock markets were a little more bullish as anticipation builds for the upcoming Fed meeting. Bond markets had a roundtrip of a night with 10 year US Treasury yields still pushing around the 3% level with a 50 basis point rise at the next Fed meeting still being priced in. The USD remains strong

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed session here in Asia for risk takers as most of the big stock markets are closed still with the dominating catalyst for the day being the once in a decade rate rise by the RBA, which lead to some oscillation in stock prices but put a light underneath the Australian dollar. Even still,

0

More US earnings warnings

BofA via ZH. — Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian writes in her weekly Eranings Tracker now that week 3 is in the history books… …. we have clearly reached the “end of euphoria” phase. Which is not to say that earnings as reported are terrible, on the contrary: 276 S&P 500 companies (71% of earnings) have

3

Why stocks will fall much further

Morgan Stanley with the good news. The macro reasoning is very simple. Massive US inventories hit by consumer demand hiccup as the Fed crushes asset prices which spills over to Europe and China already on their knees from war, energy, property and OMICRON shocks. Voila! Global recession.  — As expected, price action turned especially vicious

2

Macro Morning

Overnight stock markets were quite mixed with European bourses pulling back while Wall Street initially made a new low before a late surge saw them barely recover to the Friday night starting position, as the correction mode remains intact. Bond markets are where the action really is with 10 year US Treasury yields making a

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The stock market rout resumes

No point putting anybody else’s strategy up because they’re all wrong. BofA has been and remains spot on. The World in a Nut: inflation in America, stagflation in Europe, deflation/devaluation inChina/Japan, bear market on Wall Street. The Biggest Picture: S&P500 loss adjusted for inflation YTD =18.1% = US stocks in real terms on course for

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Macro Afternoon

A great finish to the trading week here in Asia, with all share markets putting in strong sessions today as risk concerns over global growth take a back seat.  The USD remains super strong against all the majors although extremely oversold Euro is finally looking to take a small upswing as the European session starts

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Robots bid stocks back from cliff

The Nomura robot whisperers on the persistence of equity refuse to capitulate as macro conditions deteriorate. For me, this is not very different from any bear market. Things get overstretched and snap back then sink again. Rinse and repeat. — Macro Vol—particularly in FX—on CB policy diverges vs hawkish Fed (dovish BoJ, PBoC), “behind the

1

Macro Morning

Overnight stock markets rallied strongly overnight on the poor US GDP number, although bond markets looked straight through that print with 10 year US Treasury yields pushing back up to the 2.9% level as Wall Street rallied on lower expectations of Fed tightness around the corner. The USD remains on a tear against everything, helped

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Macro Afternoon

A much better session across Asian share markets today with the bounceback on Chinese stocks extending to other bourses as Wall Street tried to stabilise overnight. The USD is getting super strong against all the majors with Euro taking a deep dive alongside the Australian dollar and Yen. Oil markets are slipping again in the

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US earnings sicken on margin crush

JPM with the note. Headline numbers are decent so far but the inflationary margin crush is not pleasing markets. — Based on 21% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 73% are beating 1Q earnings and 64% are beating revenue estimates.  Earnings have surprised to the upside by 4.7% (vs. 16.5% on

0

Macro Morning

Overnight stock markets stabilised somewhat with a late rally in tech stocks (aka Meta) helping calm fears of growing poor earnings on Wall Street in the wake of an aggressive Fed rate rise regime. The USD is still growing stronger, now at a five year high with defensive Yen reversing as Euro and the Australian