Australian Shares

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  More stability overnight on Wall Street with European markets also rebounding, while interest rates also rose on the better risk sentiment, the oil price fell again as the DOE inventory report underwhelmed. Looking at the action on Asian markets yesterday, where the Shanghai Composite continued to fall, albeit at a slower rate,

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed day is better than an across the board selloff with shares here in Asia putting in scratch sessions and some advances. The RBNZ has surprised all with a double cut at its interest rate meeting, sending both Kiwi and Aussie falling to new record lows, while gold has put in another big bid for

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UBS: Risk assets to keep falling

Via UBS: The tepid signs that global growth was bottoming are likely to be overwhelmed by the negative shocks from rising trade tensions. Moreover, the cushion from valuations/risk premia is quite low. The UBS Synthetic Trade War Monitor helps us track where trade sensitive assets sit within the trade talks ‘fear – complacency’ spectrum. Whilst

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When to buy crashing equities

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Equities are selling aggressively and bonds are rallying on the back of recent escalation of trade wars. Investors are behaving as if the end of the world is nigh. But is this really the case? Our thesis is that the world is suffering its worst uncertainty shock since the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Some stability returned to risk markets overnight with the inevitable bounceback after so much selling, mainly due to the Chinese Yuan finally stabilising, lifting the USD and dragging equities with it. Wall Street lead the rise after European markets remained in the doldrums, while the oil price fell as other commodities struggled

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Macro Afternoon

A slowdown but not a cessation of selling activity in stocks across the region today, with currency and bond markets closely watching the Yuan fix for stability. The RBA meeting was a fizz but the Australian dollar leapt higher, while gold took a very small breather after its big surge overnight. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite continues

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What shares to buy in a trade war

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Investors are rightly concerned that trade wars are getting out of control. Within the space of a few days we have seen: US President Trump announce 10% tariffs on remaining Chinese imports, without giving Chinese authorities advance notice. The PBoC has allowed the USD/CNY to appreciate through

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A bath of blood on equity markets overnight as the US/China trade war deepens with US stocks falling around 3% across the board, now wiping out all the nominal gains for the year. It was a run to safe havens instead, as gold surged alongside Yen while US Treasury yields plummeted to

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Macro Afternoon

As expected, it hasn’t been a good start to the week for Asian stock markets as the new round in the US trade war with China squashes all evidence of confidence that had been building up previously. Currency markets are feeling the heat too, with gold breaking out to a new daily high while its a

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The end of the northern hemisphere summer break usually spells doom and gloom on risk markets, and that’s where the mood takes us at the moment with Friday nights US unemployment print unable to shake confidence back into the complex. More threats and cajoling on both sides of the US/China trade war

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are not liking the new round in the US trade war with China with falls across the region as Yen buyers step in on the safe haven and the Australian dollar is wallopped on the commodity selloff while the Yuan has sold off to a new monthly low. The Shanghai Composite has

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The tweeting Twit-in-Chief put another spanner in the trader war spat between the US and China overnight with more tariff threats pushing the commodity complex over the edge, sending iron ore, oil and other hard commodities down sharply, taking stocks with them. US Treasuries rallied on the safe haven bid with the

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Macro Afternoon

Most Asian stock markets are off today in response to the “too-dovish” Fed mood overnight, although Japanese bourses barely managed a scratch session due to a much weaker Yen. Weak data from China and in particular the canary-in-the-gold-mine decline in Korean exports is hampering risk sentiment as well. Perhaps the insurance cut is at the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  It was all about the Fed overnight where at their July meeting, a 25 bps “insurance cut” rattled markets instead, with US stocks losing more than 1% and sending the USD higher against everything. Treasury yields jumped across the curve while Australian interest rates fell, with the 10 year government bond now

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Macro Afternoon

Trump is putting his foot into the trade war mouth with more rhetoric overnight that has startled markets again with most Asian equities stumbling today. Luckily, higher than expected Apple earnings are seeing US futures rise instead, but tonight’s July Federal Reserve meeting will be keenly watched by all, especially after the better than expected

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A very busy night on risk markets with a much higher than expected CPI print taking the bottom out of European stocks who were expecting the easy ECB to keep things inflated, while a booming US consumer also highlighted the risk of a less dovish Fed going into tonights FOMC meeting as

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Macro Afternoon

A much more optimistic mood here in Asia today with almost all stock markets putting on gains, with the ASX200 advancing to a new record high. Pound Sterling continued to fall as the realisation of no-negotiating let alone no-deal seems to be de jeure for the Johnson hard Brexit, while the Australian dollar continued its

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A mixed night on risk markets with US stocks retracing while the FTSE launched higher helped by a near three year low in Pound Sterling as hard Brexit becomes a reality. Interest rate and currency markets are poised for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting while commodities lifted slightly with gold eking out a new

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Macro Afternoon

Quite a mixed response to the record high on Wall Street here in Asia with Chinese markets falling on the back of continued protests in Hong Kong, with only the Australian bourse putting a positive – and record high – session. Caution is the name of the game going into this week’s big series of

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A stronger than expected 2Q GDP print on Friday night gave US stocks a big goosing, with new record highs, as the USD also put in a two month high with Euro at two year lows against King Dollar. The Fed looks set still to cut rates when it meets tomorrow –

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Macro Afternoon

A very mixed end to the trading week here in Asia with mainland Chinese stocks advancing while the rest of the region stumbled following the impact of the stimulus from the ECB overnight. The Shanghai Composite lifted 0.25% but has been unable to finish the week above 3000 points while the Hang Seng Index fell sharply,

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The ECB met last night and adopted a very very clear easing bias with a new stimulus package, but it wasn’t enough for punch drunk risk markets with European stocks falling and pushing US bourses into the red on the lack of confidence. Durable goods in the US however surprised to the upside

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Macro Afternoon

A sea of green across Asian stock markets this afternoon but not so for the Australian dollar which continues to stumble as Governor Lowe this morning was unable to outline a clear scenario for when rate cuts will stop. Currency markets are awaiting tonights ECB meeting plus any further fallout from Boris Johnson’s cabinet culling, as

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The decline in European manufacturing activity and the swearing in of Trump-lite Boris Johnson as UK PM was not enough to upset risk markets with new record stock markets in the US, while iron ore and oil prices fell on supply gluts. The USD remained firm against the majors, although Pound Sterling

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Macro Afternoon

The strong overnight lead has translated into gains across Asian stock markets today while the USD advanced against the Kiwi and Aussie, it fell back against Yen as gold finally found some form as well. Chinese stocks are positive but mixed with more action on the mainland with the Shanghai Composite closing 0.8% higher to 2923

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  European markets awaited the outcome of the UK Tory leadership and hence new PM outcome with the Euro tanking on the news that “Trump-lite” Johnson got the job, thus securing months of chaos until the end of October. This was overshadowed by positive news around the US-China trade war plus a new

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are getting a bit of a bid here in Asia as sentiment swings back to positive on more central bank dovishness. The USD remains strong as the Aussie dollar drops throughout the session, helping local stocks while gold has retreated from its recent highs. Chinese stocks have come back slightly with the Shanghai Composite lifting