Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

A less volatile session today here in Asia with most markets advancing, although the action was centered in China with the yuan falling on the back of poor trade data, taking mainland stocks with it. Aussie ten year yields jumped on the news, starting to approach 3% while the NZD fell on the back of

54

Macro Afternoon

Not the best rebound here in Asia with Chinese stocks selling off as other bourses reacted meekly to the overnight move higher in US markets. The ASX200 did the best however, but its looking tenuous going into tonights session.Yields are coming down a little though on Treasuries and the USD is gaining against the majors

11

Gun-shy ASX rebounds weakly

AUD/USD is up a little: Bonds are bid: Stocks are up 1.2% but are struggling with S&P500 futures down. It’s still nursing a possible double-top Dalian is pointlessly bid on bad weather: Big Iron is enjoying itself: Big Gas is up though it’s on a hiding to nothing with oil way overbought still: Big Gold

13

Is short vol the pebble that triggers an avalanche?

In June 2007,  two relatively obscure Bear Stearns mortgage funds closed. With the benefit of hindsight, this was the start of a wave of mortgage defaults that heralded the start of the financial crisis. In October 1987, a stock market correction turned into a rout as a trading strategy called portfolio insurance saw markets accelerate

94

Macro Afternoon

Its a short sellers paradise out there today in stock land, with a huge co-ordinated selloff – crash if you will – across all Asian markets. And it seems only stocks are really affected, with currency markets relatively sanguine, with the Aussie dollar absorbing the chaos and todays RBA meeting with aplomb. Where will it all

22

JPM: Get ready to buy

Via JPM quant Marko Kolanovic: In last week’s note, we noted that volatility, at the time, was not sufficient to trigger systematic strategy de-risking. On Friday, the market dropped ~2% on a day when bonds were down ~40bps. The move on Friday was helped by market makers’ hedging of option positions (as gamma positions turned from

18

Nomura: More selling to come

Via Zero Hedge: By Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura. Fade to Black The “grey swan” we all have spoken about for years—that being the absurd “tail wagging the dog” potential of VIX ETN market structure (inverse and leveraged products) AND the massive growth in “negative convexity” / “vol target” / “vol

31

ASX crashes

S&P500 futures are up a little but XJO is down -3% or so with what could turn into a nasty double top: Bonds are bid though as strongly as in the US: AUD keeps sliding: Big Iron hammered ex-FMG: Big Gas even more as the overdue oil correction unfolds: Big Gold is getting walloped. Remember

53

Macro Afternoon

Its not quite a bath of blood on Asian stock markets today with mainland Chinese markets bouncing back, but they were the only brightness in a sea of red as the dreaded Monday morning gap was filled from Friday nights selloff. A most welcome correction, but one that has many spooked because of the rising

39

Macro Afternoon

Its a mixed end to a red trading week here in Asia with only Australian shares putting runs on the board as the bond selloff deepens. The BOJ stepped in to stop yields rising on its own short term 5 and 10s, which sent the Yen down against USD. Risk markets are shaping up for

39

Macro Afternoon

Its a better start to the month here in Asia, well outside mainland China at least as the risk on mood starts to pick up from the very shortlived dip earlier in the week. Coming into the NFP print on Friday having absorbed the latest FOMC meeting, risk traders are positioning for another series of

1

Australian dollar slips, ASX loves it

The AUD/USD is off with a little more conviction today as the market digests crashing building approvals. A volatile segment to be sure but there are mounting signals from the sector that the Chinese plus local specufestor withdrawal is not pretty: The bond bid is back too and spreads to the US keep banging wider

37

Macro Afternoon

Not quite a bath of blood here in Asia, but most stock markets retreated today, the ASX200 the only standout. Reaction to Trump’s State of the Uniom speech has been muted with Treasury yields finally slipping after several days of gains due to the bond rout. Risk is prepositioning for the FOMC and NFP this

14

Macro Afternoon

The selloff continues here in Asia with all bourses retreated firmly as risk goes off the table, energised by the selloff in bond markets. While the Yen firmed, the USD is returning to favour with the other majors, particularly the Aussie, reversing a weakening trend as risk off goes to safe havens. In mainland China