Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

#747Farewell to the last 747 Qantas flight today….sad times for aviation by Chris Becker Sentiment has shifted again to a risk off mood with stocks struggling here in Asia today, reflecting the fall in tech stocks overnight on the NASDAQ. The rout in USD has abated somewhat, although the Aussie dollar, gold and silver remain

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Wilson: Stock prices only go up

Matthew Haupt is a lead portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management at the AFR: Highly complex and unpredictable, a second wave effect is likely to lead to one of three outcomes: The virus takes hold and economic conditions deteriorate. Governments alternate between opening and closing economies. The virus is contained, driving a strong economic recovery.

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Sentiment remains super positive as the EU stimulus and fiscal sharing package and vaccines news continue to propel equity and commodity markets higher, while at the same time sending the USD to a five month low against nearly everything else. The undollar currencies, plus gold and silver, all had sterling sessions overnight,

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker News of a potentially successful coronavirus vaccine is sending stocks higher across the region, with local stocks leading the way even as the Federal government slashes its economic stimulus package come September. Gold is soaring ahead as well to a new high while everything else except Yen is also rising against USD.

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The mild start to the trading week here in Asia translated into much firmer gains once Wall Street opened, due to the promising vaccine news and potential fiscal stimulus from the EU and US Congress. The NASDAQ blew out over 2% higher to a new record high, with stock markets given the

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Outside of Australian stocks, its been a good start to the trading week here in Asia, with the somewhat positive mood from Wall Street on Friday translating into mild gains today. Currencies are relatively quiet, although Euro is shooting out the gates and gold is starting to look bullish going into the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Global stock markets saw a mixed end to the trading week with Wall Street trying in vain to burst out of its recent funk with a series of solid corporate earnings, although Friday night saw a rise in bond yields and fall in the USD, as expectations of more upside in equities

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker The soft mood in Asia continues as we end the trading week as stock markets remain in retreat mode and wipe out the start of week gains. The USD is reversing slightly against the majors, with gold just hanging on after its fallback last night while other risk assets are also stable

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Global stock markets are getting wobbly again with Wall Street stumbling despite good earnings from major banks and solid retail sales data for June. The ECB didn’t help or hinder with its latest meeting, although USD continued to firm from yesterday’s reversal with the Australian dollar and other commodities all fell overnight

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker A soft mood in Asia with stock markets in retreat mode and erasing the start of week gains. The USD is moving higher against the majors, except gold which is still strong, and Yen starting to move higher as safe haven buying accelerates as coronavirus cases continue to spike across the world.

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stocks shot out of the gate on the European open last night, and technically price charts are exhibiting breakouts across the risk complex, but sentiment remains complicated at the US earnings season gets underway. Risk was pushed higher on bullish vaccine news, not anything substantial like the slowing of US consumer spending

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Outside of China, stocks have continued their strong surge on the hopes of a coronavirus vaccine and for a strong showing in US earnings. Gold remains elevated above the $1800USD per ounce level while Bitcoin is struggling again at a new daily low. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is down nearly

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Brace for dividend shock

Via Bloomie: Australia’s largest companies are expected to slash dividend payouts over the August reporting season by the most since the global financial crisis as the coronavirus pandemic eroded corporate balance sheets. Payments from firms on the S&P/ASX 200 index may plunge as much as 40% in 2020, before declining another 11% in 2021, according

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ASX pops on vaccine hopium

The Australian dollar stuck its nose above 70 cents earlier: Bonds are crushed: XJO has popped this morning on vaccine hysteria but its chart is pretty neutral: Big Iron is flying: Big Gas isn’t: Big Gold still looks bullish with a solid uptrend: Outside of preposterous CBA, Big Banks appear locked into a new downtrend.

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Hamish Douglass remains bearish

A good peice by the Magellen doyen: Donald Rumsfeld, the former US Secretary of Defense in the administrations of George W Bush and Gerald Ford, provided a useful framework to evaluate problems when he stated: “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns;

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment swung wildly again overnight echoing the previous session as the US corporate earnings season got into full swing. While European stocks lagged, Wall Street surged after the latest CPI figures were higher than expected and vaccine news overshadowed continued bad news around COVID-19 cases. Commodities were in a holding pattern,

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Stocks are retreating across the region in the wake of the sharp reversal on Wall Street overnight, not quite taking back Monday’s gains, but more importantly putting a lot of fear into a massively correlated market that is stretched too thin.  Gold is just hanging on above the $1800USD per ounce level

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Volatility of the bad kind is creeping in to risk markets with the NASDAQ setting a record high overnight before violently closing 2% lower that took correlated stock markets down with it. Oil prices fell back too as the USD oscillated against the majors, lifting vs Yen and Pound Sterling, but Euro

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Stocks are jumping out of the gate to start the trading week in a positive mood, following the surge on Wall Street on Friday night which gave a united signal to the risk complex to buy up (almost) everything.  Gold is back above the $1800USD per ounce level as other undollars rebound

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Another divergence in risk on Friday with Asian share markets having a red session to finish the week, while despite a big surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US, Wall Street pulled a swifty and rocked the risk complex with another solid session. US inflation measures remained soft, helping add

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Macro Afternoon

Stocks are falling going into the close here in Asia as the trading week ends and markets gear up for earnings season on Wall Street next week. Gold is just hanging on to the $1800USD per ounce level as other undollars feel the rebound of the stronger USD on the risk aversion trade. S&P futures

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment continues to grow negative – outside of tech stocks – with Wall Street falling in response to the US Supreme Court ruling on the fraud-in-chief’s tax returns and the rising death toll and positive caseload from coronavirus. The USD firmed overnight as did bond yields, while only oil fell in

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Macro Afternoon

It’s all green again across Asian stock markets, and despite rising COVID-19 cases in Tokyo, Japanese authorities are looking to ease restrictions within the nation, boosting economic hopes, while locally the chance of further lockdowns has had no impact on the ASX200, at least for today. Meanwhile, gold continues to hold above $1800USD per ounce

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment remained sour overnight until Wall Street opened, with traders (bots) jumping on optimistic comments from the Fed’s Bullard and hyper-deluded comments from VP Pence about the coronavirus outbreak in the southern US states. The USD sold off in response, despite European concerns over Brexit (remember that?) from Chancellor Merkel, which

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Macro Afternoon

Outside China, risk sentiment is falling again with stock markets in retreat here in Asia with Eurostoxx and US futures looking to start poorly as well. The gold price remains static at just under the $1800USD per ounce level while other undollars are gaining with Euro and the Aussie dollar lifting while Yen becomes bid

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Global risk sentiment soured again overnight in response to more coronavirus fears, with Brazil’s autocratic Bolsanoro now infected, while US deaths spiked to a new daily high, almost reaching a thousand (although likely a lag from long weekend of little reporting). Wall Street slipped, pulling European stocks with them, while bond yields

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Macro Afternoon

Sentiment swung back to hesitation this afternoon here in Asia with most bourses reversing course from its sharp rise to the start of the trading week, led by dual breakouts of coronavirus – both Tokyo and Victoria. The euphoria over the surge in Chinese shares is wearing off with US and Euro futures looking down