Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are struggling to gain traction at the start of what is likely to be a low volume trading, following the less than stellar performance on Wall Street on Friday and the weekend news of more economic lockdowns across Europe. Bitcoin is levitating to new heights yet again while gold has pushed through the

9

Macro Morning

Risk sentiment faded on Friday night across both sides of the Atlantic as European measures to contain COVID ramped up, putting pressure on their respective economies, while the lack of any measures in the US is sending the death toll higher and higher, as Congress does 2/5ths of SFA to engage meaningful stimulus. Wall Street

198

Macro Afternoon

Stocks are really struggling going into the end of week trading here in Asia after the mid week surge fades quickly as pessimism sneaks in. Bitcoin is not yet going down, but is struggling as well without any new highs, while gold is holding on just above the $1885USD per ounce level: The Shanghai Composite

4

Macro Morning

More hopium is sending risk sentiment higher, at least on Wall Street as traders book a potential pre-Christmas stimulus package from Congress. Commodities continue to do well across the board as iron ore follows Bitcoin to the stratosphere, the latter pushing above the $23000 level although its looks very toppy here on the four hourly

76

Macro Afternoon

It’s risk on everywhere here in Asia as the bids go wild as optimism for a stimulus package from the US Congress firms yet again. Bitcoin is going a bit nuts, heading straight through the $22000 point level to another historic high, while gold is trying to play catchup, now back above the $1860USD per

6

JPM: Equity rally “overdone”

Via JPM: SMid-Caps (and equities in general) have gone straight up since the start of Nov(the MSCI Europe Small Cap is up 17% since then… the MSCI ACWI small capindex up 19%). Should we expect a bit of a pullback?Most SMid-Cap indices inthe world are up YTD, with many up double digits in a year

1

Macro Morning

Risk sentiment was slightly mixed but still somewhat positive overnight with some minor gains across the Atlantic stock markets as traders remain on edge waiting for news on Brexit and Congress stimulus talks . Commodities did well again, with oil, copper and iron ore advancing while Bitcoin transcended reality and popped over $1000 overnight to a

129

Macro Afternoon

Better hopes for a stimulus package from the US Congress is sending the USD down and risk up across Asia today, with strong moves locally as the iron ore price keeps heading to the moon. Bitcoin is holding just below the weekly highs at the $19400 level, while gold has found a small bid above

5

BofA: Sell the vaccine boom

Via BofA fundie survey: Dec FMS: investor sentiment bullish as vaccine hopes induce strong“buy the reopening”trade; bulls adding exposure in consumer, commodities, EM (60% say EMbest performer in’21); equity “barbell” strategies all the rage; bears note cash levels fall to 4.0%, triggering an FMS Cash Rule“sell signal”; BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to 6.7.On

13

Macro Morning

It was all about the stimulus last night as the electoral college voted in Biden as President, and Senate Leader and all round a$$hole on two legs Mitch McConnell congratulated the new president, sending risk markets higher on the prospect of no more stumbling blocks within Congress. Reality will be different, but markets run on

69

Macro Afternoon

A dour day for risk for Asian stocks, with a sea of red across the region as traders react to the latest COVID economic restrictions.  Bitcoin has held above its weekend breakout $19000 level, while gold has found a modicum of buying support and lifted off the floor to be at the $1836USD per ounce

0

Macro Morning

Risk markets remain extremely mixed in sentiment going into the end of the year with further economic restrictions in Europe and COVID vaccine distribution pulling and pushing confidence, not to mention the volatility from the US presidential election outcome. European stocks advanced slightly despite further breakdown in Brexit talks and more lockdowns while Wall Street

101

Macro Afternoon

A solid start to the trading week for Asian stocks, outside of Hong Kong, with the USD mixed against the majors as S&P futures start to gain.  Bitcoin has jumped again on the weekend break, now back above the $19000 level, while gold has been relatively quite and unable to make any gains so far

1

ASX wants to see the money

The Australian dollar is bid again this morning: As are yields: XJO is up a little: No guesses for who is leading: Big Gas is soft: Big Gold as well: Big Banks are trying and failing: Vaccine winners are correcting after recent jumps: It’s back to growth today with value on the nose as yields

2

Macro Morning

Markets continue to watch gyrations in US government spending and non-stimulus actions with Wall Street wavering on Friday night as European stocks went into retreat mode as COVID deaths continue to rise across the continent. While iron ore hit a nine year high, oil and copper prices fell back slightly while Bitcoin was again largely

140

Macro Afternoon

A record number of COVID cases in Germany is dampening spirits again going into the final session of the week with most Asian stock markets in retreat mode. Bitcoin is slowly deflating again, down below the $18000 level this time, while gold has been unable to get back on track after its recent falls, currently

6

Macro Morning

While the ECB delivered more easing in its latest meeting overnight, equities were not that impressed with Wall Street slipping again and stocks mixed throughout the continent, not helped by a “no-deal” Brexit now firming. The latest CPI print in the US firmed while stimulus talks continued, putting pressure on bond yields and the USD.

106

Macro Afternoon

Record death tolls from coronavirus in the US is putting a dampener on risk spirits with most Asian stock markets in retreat or treading water as currency traders await tonight’s ECB meeting. Bitcoin is slowly deflating again, down below the $18400 level, while gold is trying to get back on track after its steep falls

1

Goldman on the boom of 2021/22

Via Goldman: Our global growth numbers remain well above consensus because we think too many forecasters are extrapolating too much from past cycles. Most recent recessions have resulted from asset price busts and other financial shocks, whose negative effects on output took time to develop and even more time to unwind. By contrast, the 2020

1

Macro Morning

Risk markets ran out of puff overnight as the prospect of a meaningful stimulus package from the US Congress waned, with Treasury yields moving higher and risk currencies rangebound as a result. Commodities prices moved higher in the confusion, but gold and Bitcoin suffered large drops before later recovering somewhat. Volatility is tracking low which

129

Macro Afternoon

Outside China, Asian stock markets are pushing higher today despite dashed hopes of more stimulus from the US Congress, and some of the worst days in Europe for new COVID-19 infections and deaths, let alone the out of control pandemic in the US. Bitcoin has broken down after being relatively steady above the $19200 level,

6

Macro Morning

Wall Street re-engaged the fear of missing out rally again overnight, sending the S&P500 to a record high in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic at its worst stage (so far). Risk taking didn’t extend to anything else however, with Treasury yields lower while commodities prices were largely unchanged alongside major currency pairs, although Bitcoin

110

Macro Afternoon

Most Asian stock markets are struggling to find direction today after the tepid sessions on Wall Street overnight as traders remained confused to the response of the latest US unemployment print.  Bitcoin is still relatively steady at the $19200 level, while gold has leapt to a two week high, finally back above its pre-breakdown levels

0

Macro Morning

A wobble in the risk complex overnight, put down to concerns over the out of control pandemic in the US but really due to a lack of economic events and/or news about further stimulus from the US Congress. The USD rose slightly while bond yields fell back from their recent run higher as the 10

63

Macro Afternoon

Outside local markets its been a very poor start to the trading week with most Asian stock markets closing with solid losses, following what was a very upbeat night on Wall Street in response to the latest – and poor showing –  US unemployment print.  Bitcoin is still relatively steady at the $19400 level, while

11

The bull needs a reality check

Via BofA at ZH: We already discussed how current market euphoria has surpassed dot com levels, but what’s going now is absolutely staggering… and it’s only getting crazier with each passing day and new all time high. Consider that in just the past 4 weeks there has been a record $115BN inflows into stocks, a record $25BN into

6

Macro Morning

Bad news is good news as Friday night’s NFP (non farm payrolls aka US unemployment print) was so bad, it was good news for stocks as Wall Street headed to record highs in the middle of a severe pandemic and growing recession. Why? Because worser jobs figures equals betterer stimulus chances coming from Congress which

170

Macro Afternoon

Outside local markets its been a tepid end to the trading week with most Asian stock markets looking to close with minor losses going into tonight’s US unemployment print.  Bitcoin is relatively steady at  the $19400 level, while gold has put on more gains, slowly climbing higher to be at $1841 as it struggles to

18

Global boom imminent?

A couple of pieces that investors should pay attention to. First, the pick of Aitkens, James: “There was an enormous mistake coming out of 2009 in the form of the self inflicted European sovereign debt crisis and the lunacy of the tea party. Fiscal policy was cut off way too soon.” …Central banks have signalled