Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

Risk sentiment has finished the week very mixed again in Asia as overnight stock markets pulled back following hesitation across Wall Street as its earnings season gets underway.  USD is continuing its gains against the major currency pairs, while Bitcoin remains deflated as it drops below the $32K level after making a new three week

3

Peak stimulus risk to markets

TSLombard with the note: With vaccines curbing the potency of COVID-19, policymakers can begin to unwind their fiscal and monetary support programmes–starting with QE. Central banks’ asset purchases have had only modest effects on GDP and inflation, but they are important for financial markets. While the authorities will avoid a new”taper tantrum”, investors should expect

4

Macro Morning

Risk markets continue to swing from hope to fear with the latter ruling again overnight without any obvious catalysts. Both European and US stocks fell back around 1% or so with commodities equally mixed as oil dropped 2% while industrial metals lifted. The USD rebounded after falling back midweek while bond yields also fell back

132

Macro Afternoon

Risk sentiment is very mixed here in Asia in response to an equally mixed result overnight as European bourses tread water while the US earnings season and continued inflation concerns keep Wall Street elevated. Locally the latest jobs figures dominated, but didn’t give the Aussie dollar that big a boost, while other currencies remained firm

3

Macro Morning

Last night saw markets listening to all the fancy words from Fed Chairman Powell in his semi-annual testimony as inflation concerns – aka taking the punchbowl away concerns – dominated events. Wall Street lifted while USD and bond yields fell back as Powell stated any tightening is still a way off, while European stocks continued

121

Macro Afternoon

Risk sentiment has soured a little here in Asia following the reaction to the latest “transitory” US inflation print overnight that sent Wall Street back a few pegs, with Asian stocks retreating from their once firm better start to the trading week. Bitcoin has cracked below the $32K level after stalling previously, making a new

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Schvets: Beware the Black Swans

The magnificent Viktor Schvets at Macquarie with the note: UK, Taiwan & Australia highlight fragility of normalization narrative •Black Swan is supposed to be something that is unique, unexpected and has a major impact. As Taleb noted, we invariably attempt to rationalize such events and make them more predictable, even though they have retrospective (not

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Global fundies chase MB Fund into deflation trade

Suddenly, the monthly BofA fundies survey is like rereading MB Fund output for the past three months: Bottom line: investors much less bullish on growth, profits &yield curve steepening, have unwound junk>quality, small>large, value>growth trades back to Oct’20 levels (pre-vaccine/election), but maintain big longs in stocks (back to tech) & commodities. Cyclical“boom” has peaked: July

1

Macro Morning

Last night saw an unexpected turn in so-called transitory inflation with the US June print soaring higher while German inflation was characteristically on track as expected. The latter saw European stocks trend sideways while the former saw Wall Street fall back from its usual trend of new record highs. Treasury yields pushed higher not helped

86

Macro Afternoon

Earnings season is about to ramp up on Wall Street tonight, with Asian stocks in a holding pattern but still looking firm after a much better start to the trading week. The USD is equally sanguine with no big swings against the majors while in Bitcoin world, the crypto currency has fallen back below the

2

Macro Morning

Friday night’s rally on Wall Street caused Asian stocks to rebound yesterday and overall risk sentiment rised in response overnight with European stocks lifting the most, yet Wall Street still put in another new record high.  Treasury yields pushed slightly higher but still remain near their yearly lows while currency markets were relatively quiet given

151

Macro Afternoon

A much better start to the trading week here in Asia following the Friday night flipflop on risk taking on Wall Street, with all major stock markets gaining. The USD is pulling back some of its Friday night losses, which is helping domestic currencies at least as Yen safe haven buying continues to taper. In

8

Macro Morning

A risk off situation was brewing across stock markets at the end of last trading week but a rally on Wall Street, seemingly without catalyst as seen confidence return across the board. Treasury yields pushed slightly higher but still remain near their yearly lows while the USD pulled back against everything except Yen as safe

2

Macro Morning

A risk off situation is brewing across stock markets as bond yields drop back to new lows as sentiment around continued COVID outbreaks weighs heavily. Wall Street dropped nearly 1% while European stocks fell nearly 2% as the ECB changed its inflation target regime, with Euro spiking although USD remains strong against the commodity currencies,

153

Macro Afternoon

A resurgence of COVID cases across the region is weighing on Asian stocks despite record highs on Wall Street overnight. Bitcoin has failed in getting back its weekend gains with a full retracement of this week’s gains, now at the $33K level while gold is retracing back below the $1800USD per ounce after its overnight

4

Why you never buy miners when they’re cheap

Some people think you should buy miners becasue they are “cheap“: Australia’s big miners are cheap on a global basis and may drive the S&P/ASX 200 index as high as 8,000 points in the second half of 2021, according to Mike Aked, Director of Research for Australia at Research Affiliates. While banks have surged this

6

Macro Morning

Wall Street got out of its grumpy start start to the week with a return to new record highs overnight as the latest FOMC minutes indicated any tapering action is still far far away.  European markets also got back on the risk-on train with some sharp rebounds despite a drop in German industrial production although

90

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are all over the place with local and Chinese mainland rallies overshadowing wider falls across the region after the wishy washy return of Wall Street overnight. Bitcoin is still trying to get back its weekend gains with a small move back above the $34K level but its failing to stick while gold is

2

CBA still a bubble

I recently picked the near top of the CBA bubble to start throwing pins. Since I began I first raised the notion that CBA is a preposterous bubble, it has deflated by 10%, more than its banking peers: Yet CBA remains stupidly overvalued. It is virtually no different to the other big three. Its yield

1

Macro Morning

Risk markets turned from relatively quiet to very cautious overnight as US traders returned from their long weekend in a poor mood, with Wall Street slipping.  European markets all retraced sharply on the poor German ZEW showing with factory orders also disappointing. Commodity prices were all over the place with Brent oil initially higher before

87

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are still not responding in kind to Wall Street’s post-US unemployment rally from Friday night with uneasiness over COVID’s delta variant continuing to weigh. Bitcoin is trying again to get back its weekend gains with a small surge above the $34K level but its failing to stick while gold cracks above $1800USD per

2

Macro Morning

Risk markets were relatively quiet overnight as the US holiday following the latest non-farm payroll (NFP) unemployment print on Friday kept sentiment neutral and reduced the chances of any volatile response. European markets were nominally bullish with some mild lifting while the USD and bond markets were relatively unchanged. Commodity prices saw the most action

122

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are not responding in kind to Wall Street’s post-US unemployment rally from Friday night with mild selloffs and scratch sessions the order of the day to star the week. Bitcoin gapped significantly higher over the weekend but has given most of it back to be just over the $34K level with no real

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FAAMG pain trade sears Wall Street

Throughout this year we have seen Wall Street equity strategists make a hash of things. We have seen two narratives dominate: Good news is bad news as reopening and reflation drive inflation higher and stocks lower which has been wrong. Held most obviously by BofA. Bad news is good as reopening and reflation drive a

0

Macro Morning

A new non-farm payroll (NFP) unemployment print in the US has reset the tone for US stocks at least with a good headline but mixed internal report equating to an unlikely early taper by the Federal Reserve. This embiggened traders on Wall street to push the S&P500 to a new record high but other stock

131

Macro Afternoon

Its a mixed end to the trading week here in Asia as COVID-19 and other events including the postponed OPEC+ meeting cause some flux in stock market fortunes. Gold is slowly gaining but its looking weak again at $1778USD per ounce while Bitcoin has been unable to gain any momentum, heading back towards the $33K

2

Macro Morning

A new trading month brings more risk taking with both European and US shares lifting across the board with the S&P500 putting in a new record high and traders expecting a solid jobs report from the NFP later tonight. While the latest ISM manufacturing slipped slightly it was very robust with initial weekly jobless claims