Australian Shares

16

ASX bear market rally dead or resting?

The Australian dollar is still bid this morning: Bonds too: XJO has added back some of yesterday’s losses but its symmetrical tringle shows confusion: Which it should be given it is trading at 18x forward with unemployment miles above the 1990 recession: Big Iron is firm: Big Gas tooL Big Gold has life: Big Banks

1

Macro Morning

  By Chris Becker  Last night saw a small return to risk taking late in the session following another dire initial jobless claims print in the US, as Wall Street continues to ignore the stark risks given by multitudes of viral scientists and the equally stark data coming out of “open for business” states like

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Macro Afternoon

Selling is the order of the day here in Asia with all stock markets lower by 1% or more in response to the selloff on Wall Street overnight, as traders weigh up more negativity around the “V” shaped recovery post-coronavirus. The USD is gaining against everything by safe haven Yen, with the Aussie dollar dropping

9

Tepper: It’s a tech bubble

Via the AFR: Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper sounded a strong note of pessimism on the state of the stock market, calling it the most overvalued ever outside of the bubble of 1999. Valuations on some individual stocks on the Nasdaq are “nuts,” Tepper told CNBC on Wednesday. “People have to be very careful about some

5

Macro Morning

  By Chris Becker  Another sour night on overseas markets with Federal Reserve Chair Powell giving a reality check on the economic impact of COVID-19, causing a selloff across Wall Street as Chinese/US relations also took a dive. Currencies also bore the brunt of the volatility, although gold stayed true and fair to remain above

137

Macro Afternoon

Asian markets gapped lower and were bearish throughout the session until a surge in the afternoon saw many put in scratch sessions or mild rises. Currencies were mainly range bound with gold not showing much life but remaining above the $1700USD per ounce level. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is up a little over

19

Drukenmiller canes equity prices

One of my favourite investors talking sense: Looking for a V-shaped economic recovery? Not so fast, Druckenmiller warns. pic.twitter.com/DyFbjxmbvZ — The Economic Club NY (@EconClubNY) May 12, 2020 “I pray I’m wrong on this, but I just think that the V-out is a fantasy,” the legendary hedge fund manager said, referring to a V-shaped recovery.

11

Macro Morning

  By Chris Becker  The latest US CPI data and somber (i.e realistic) testimony from Dr Fauci about the coronavirus in the US put a big dampener on risk taking overnight with US stocks falling 2% across the board. The USD fell against the major currencies, while commodity currencies like Aussie and Loonie went the

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed trading session throughout Asia with most stock markets slipping or putting in scratch sessions in response to the equally mixed and cautious run on Wall Street overnight. Gold is holding above the $1700USD per ounce level as the USD is reverting slightly going into the London open as oil prices start to pick

0

Macro Morning

  By Chris Becker  Increased trade tensions between China and the US added caution to the mix in a flat session overnight on risk markets with most bourses making a hesitant start to the trading week. The USD reasserted itself against the majors while gold slipped back below $1700USD per ounce. Bitcoin continues to see

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Macro Afternoon

A good start to the week here in Asia with most stock markets rising in unison in response to the positive swing on the disastrous US unemployment print on Friday night. The USD is gaining strength later in the session, particularly against Yen while gold holds on above the $1700USD per ounce level. In mainland

14

Goldman: Bear market not over

Via Goldman which sees the S&P500 minus 18% to 2400 by August: First, COVID-19 infection rates outside of New York continue to grow. While New York has thankfully been able to flatten the curve and the rate of growth of new cases had decelerated, new infections in the rest of the US are increasing. Cases of

1

Macro Morning

  By Chris Becker  Wall Street continues to price out the health effects of coronavirus and price in a sharp V-shaped economic recovery, despite the record print in non-farm payrolls on Friday night, which saw US unemployment spike to over 14% while Treasury yields hit a record low with the two year barrelling in on

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Macro Afternoon

A strong finish to the week here in Asia with all stock markets rising in response to the lifting tide from Wall Street overnight as the positive rhetoric surrounding a new Chinese-US trade deal smooths over the stark unemployment situation developing in the US. Tonight’s non-farm payroll (NFP – US official unemployment) will be crucial

5

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk swung back to confidence overnight as the Federal Reserve turned Japanese in its rhetoric, while US initial and continuing jobless claims hit new record highs and well above expectations. Result = rally on Wall Street! The BOE kept their own asset program unchanged, and combined with the jobs print this saw

123

Macro Afternoon

Yet another day of mixed results here in Asia with the return of Japanese traders not increasing any risk appetites. Despite the softer tones across the region, US stock futures are climbing, while European equities are set to open slightly higher, oil is already starting to sell off as gold remains firm just below the

3

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment is as petulant as a six year old boy cooped up doing homeschooling for the third week in a row, having a tantrum overnight as Federal Reserve officials continued to explain their monetary stimulus program to a market that just wants more and more. The USD firmed against everything except

16

Genworth smashed by $182m mortgage write-down

Australia’s biggest mortgage insurer, Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia, yesterday announced to the ASX that it has taken a $182 million write-down in anticipation of a big surge in mortgage defaults on the back of rising unemployment and falling property prices: Given Genworth provides cover to banks against the risk of customers defaulting, it will bear

172

Macro Afternoon

Chinese markets came back after a very long weekend, with the Shanghai Composite gapping down to start before recovering to be up 0.3% to 2867 points, while the Hang Seng Index continued its bounceback to be up over 1% at 24145 points, bouncing off the recent daily lows at 23400 points: Japanese share markets remain

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A better mood on risk markets overnight as more regions and countries announce easing on lockdowns in the face of the coronavirus impact, with markets still pricing in a sharp V-shaped recovery. European markets did the best until the German constitutional court put a dampener on the ECB’s asset purchase program, while

136

Macro Afternoon

Swings and roundabouts as risk taking came back to bid across what remains open here in Asia, with stock markets up and European futures looking bright for tonight’s session. The RBA held fire in its monthly meeting with almost no change in the Australian dollar while the USD strengthened against Euro and gold. Mainland Chinese

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Quite a mixed session overnight following an equally mixed bag of results in Asian trading yesterday. Wall Street eventually closed in the green after being down in the red significantly alongside European bourses as sentiment remains fragile at best. The USD slipped while commodities and their proxies came back a bit, particularly

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Macro Afternoon

Risk was again off today here in Asia despite several closed markets for the May Day holidays with the Sell in May meme in full swing as European futures are down over 3% going into the London open. US/China trade relations are the main headline to blame, but there’s plenty of others like profit taking

10

20 bidders circle Virgin’s carcass

Virgin Australia’s administrators Deloitte stated on 30 April that 20 parties had expressed an interest in buying the failed airline. However, that number could fall to around a dozen or less, following recent talks between potential bidders about the possibility of joining forces. Private equity firm BGH is said to be in discussion with AustralianSuper