Australian Shares

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Macro Afternoon

Dead cat’s are bouncing everywhere as tensions between China and US ramp up again, with The Middle Kingdom complaining about the “little tricks”, sending Chinese stocks down and futures cratering for tonight’s open and close to the week. The upcoming federal election in Australia hasn’t dampened the risk appetite locally, helped along by a much

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Positive sentiment on risk markets is accelerating with some big advances on European markets matched by near 1% lifts across Wall Street overnight. A solid US housing starts figure plus more hawkish Fed speak saw the USD rise against almost everything, with the Australian dollar now down in the 68’s. Yesterday the

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Macro Afternoon

The bounceback is getting a bit wobbly here in Asia with confidence not returning in full as expected. Japanese stocks are down while Chinese bourses are treading water, as local stocks are bid as the Australian dollar falls in the wake of a “surprise” lift in unemployment. The Shanghai Composite is floating along here, currently

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Sentiment was mixed overnight with stocks rising, but some disappointing US economic data pushed bond yields and risk currencies lower, Pound Sterling in particular pushed down to a new monthly low. The latest DOE oil inventory report saw a jump in crude prices while Bitcoin remained over $8000USD. Yesterday the Shanghai Composite has bounced

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Macro Afternoon

The bounce continues here in Asia with stocks up across the board while currency markets are steady as the USD firms. The trifecta of Chinese internal economic releases came in lower than expected but this was overshadowed by the PBOC cutting the Yuan fix again to its lowest point since January, as the trade war

5

Sell in May and go away?

The BofaML fundie survey was out overnight and as always makes great reading: • Investors are well-hedged but not positioned for a trade deal breakdown, and the full “risk-off”…rising recession risks, Fed cuts, GT10 <2%, SPX <2600, CNY >7. • FMS #1 tail risk = “trade war”…no surprise given survey taken May 3rd-9th; but trade

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Sentiment seemed to improve overnight with a bounceback in risk assets, with Wall Street closing about 1% higher although the USD firmed across the board. Treasury yields lifted slightly, but the chance of the Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of the year rose as well, now a near certainty as

37

Macro Afternoon

Not the bath of blood that the media (and me!) expected with the continued fallout from the US/China trade war hitting risk markets across Asia, but with some reservation from the bears. The PBOC moved the Yuan sharply lower against USD, the weakest all year while Yen stopped firming against USD. The Shanghai Composite is

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  It’s all tumbling down as the Chinese retaliate with tariffs of their own against Trump’s ill-timed tweetery. Wall Street fell around 3% across the board while bond yields fell, with safe havens soaring. Gold has breached $1300USD per ounce for the first time in two months, while Bitcoin is up nearly $1000

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Macro Afternoon

With no progress to report on the US/China trade talks and Trump thankfully still asleep (or his staffer’s have taken away his iPhone) there haven’t been any catalysts to upset markets on the open here in Asia today. The Yuan is depreciating sharply due to the PBOC trying to head off the tariffs while Yen

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment is still mixed and despite Trump raising tariffs, the trade negotiations are continuing, leading to a near bifurcation in direction in Asian and non-Asian stock markets. US stocks finished the week on a solid note, while European bourses also advanced as the latest US CPI print came in as expected.

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Macro Afternoon

The tide may be changing with Chinese stocks rebounding to finish the week on a sweeter rather than sour note as optimism around the trade talks with the US climbs. The Australian dollar is inching its way back to the 70 cent level while Yen and other safe havens remain stable. The Shanghai Composite has

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment remained sour overnight as the deadline for new tariffs on Chinese goods to the US is rapidly approaching. European shares fell sharply while US stocks slipped with a little bit of hope as bond yields didn’t fall as fast as expected. The USD remains a little weaker against the majors,

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Macro Afternoon

The risk off sentiment is growing with Asian share markets falling across the board, except locally, as the USDJPY pair hits a three month low. Its all about how Trump can keep his mouth shut during the upcoming US/China talks, although news of another missile launch in North Korea is adding to the volatility. The

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are stabilising, somewhat, as the US/China trade war concerns ease slightly as Chinese trade officials arrive in the ‘States. Treasury yields are up slightly while the USD has retreated against most undollars, although Pound Sterling is falling sharply and the Australian dollar remains under 70 cents. Looking at Asian markets

48

Macro Afternoon

A sea of red across risk markets here in Asia as they continue to react to the Trump/China trade battle. There was some stability in currency markets, except in Kiwi as the RBNZ cut rates, while gold prices lifted slightly. The Shanghai Composite has fallen below 2900 points, down over 1% to 2893 points to

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  It’s getting boisterous out there in risk-land with 2% falls across Wall Street overnight as concerns mount over the failure of the US/China trade talks. Oil prices tanked with a rush of safety to Yen and bonds sent all other undollar assets down as well, including the Australian dollar which lost all

49

Macro Afternoon

Finally a full session here in Asia as Japanese trader’s came back from the Golden Week as risk markets continued to react to the Trump/China trade battle. Meanwhile, the RBA meeting came and went with almost no change as the stubborn boffins at Martin Place continued to put their heads in the ground, sending the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  There’s good volatility and bad volatility, and it all depends on your timeframe. Day traders have loved the start to the week but for position traders and investors, Trump’s tweets are causing havoc by re-opening the US/China trade war and a possible hot war against Iran. US stocks opened nearly 2% lower

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Macro Afternoon

Trump is causing a ruckus on risk markets across Asia today with just two tweets – someone take that phone off that madman! Chinese stocks collapsed as the potential for a stall or even abandonment in US/China trade talks firms while currency markets were all over the place as risk sentiment inverted completely. The Shanghai

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  President Trump’s huuge announcement of more tariffs (with extra added deadlines!) on China has sent currency markets gapping down here in Asia on the early open, with S&P mini futures gapping 1% lower which will lead to commensurate falls on equity markets when they open this morning. Except Japan, which will be closed

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Macro Afternoon

With mainland Chinese and Japanese stock markets closed its been a weak finish here in Asia going into the weekend with the Australian dollar making a new low, remaining under 70 cents while open stock markets basically returned scratch sessions. The focus instead will be on US and European markets tonight with the latest CPI

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Markets fell again overnight as confidence continues to evaporate following the Federal Reserve’s more neutral stance. The BOE held overnight as well, taking the wind out of a recent rally in Pound Sterling, while US bond yields and the USD rose as undollar assets like oil and gold fell in the risk

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Macro Afternoon

With the inversion of risk sentiment overnight following the latest Federal Reserve meeting, Asian markets were not expected to be boisterious today, not helped by the continued Golden Week holiday in Japan and with mainland Chinese markets also closed. Locally, the NAB profit release and cut in dividends sent the financial index and thus the

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Markets were on edge waiting for the outcome of the latest Federal Reserve meeting overnight and the neutral stance offered sent the USD soaring against the undollars, but took away a lot of the shaky confidence in stocks. Wall Street fell across the board post the meeting and the latest ISM Manufacturing

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Macro Afternoon

Not much to report today given that most stock markets are closed as the Golden Week holiday in Japan presses on, with both Singaporean and Chinese markets closed for a holiday.  Instead, the focus was local with ANZ reporting full year profits, up only slightly with lots of warning signs for the other divisions of Megabank

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Tech stocks were the main casaulty overnight with the NASDAQ and FTSE the only bourses to fall back despite a positive sentiment across other risk markets. Solid economic prints from Europe in particular inflation bolstered risk and the Euro, while US Treasury yields fell as the chance of a Fed rate cut

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Macro Afternoon

As the Golden Week holiday in Japan presses on, all focus was on China today with the release of the latest PMI manufacturing print, coming in slightly lower than expected which sent the Australian dollar much lower as expected. The Shanghai Composite rebounded slightly as a result, finishing 0.5% higher to 3078 points. In Hong

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The latest core inflation figures from the US suggest a less robust economic boom than expected with the USD falling as a result as bond yields lifted across the curve. While the broader S&P500 made a new record high it was only just eked out, with European markets also not as bullish due

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Macro Afternoon

The solid finish on Wall Street on Friday night has translated into mixed sentiment here in Asia with Chinese stocks retreating on the mainland, while Japanese bourses were closed and the ASX200 fell back slightly. A similar mixed picture with currencies and undollar assets with gold retreating following its surge on Friday while the Australian