Australian Shares

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Apple warns

Just out: Our quarterly guidance issued on January 28, 2020 reflected the best information available at the time as well as our best estimates about the pace of return to work following the end of the extended Chinese New Year holiday on February 10. Work is starting to resume around the country, but we are

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Macro Afternoon

Today’s session in Asia was marked (sic) with a lot of markdowns to GDP growth across the region in the wake of the coronavirus, with Japanese and Australian economies expected to feel the brunt the most in the first quarter. Asian stocks however are quite mixed with Chinese markets rallying on potential stimulus from the

10

Can the ASX keep defying the risk?

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Globally, equities have very much been a momentum and quality story in early 2020. Value factors have badly underperformed, having bounced hard in late 2019. We have seen a very sharp risk-off rotation in alpha terms, even as the market has gained. Having said this, the momentum

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw risk markets wobble slightly as the latest US industrial production numbers fall slightly while inflation expectations also pared back, although retail sales were upbeat as expected. Treasury yields fell slightly and are still signalling almost no change for the Fed come March, while the USD continued its flex against

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed day here in Asia with some stock markets following Wall Street down, some advancing particularly in China and its Australian satellite.  Currency markets are equally quiet with gold almost unchanged with the major investment houses still wracking their brains over what to do with Chinese GDP expectations in the wake of the coronavirus

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets continue to be rattled by fear over the coronavirus with the big jump in Chinese cases sending Wall Street send slightly overnight which should provide a minor headwind to end the risk taking here in Asia going into the weekend. Euro continued its post Brexit plunge with a near three

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Macro Afternoon

A spike in new cases of coronavirus shook markets up a bit here in Asia today depsite the good run on Wall Street overnight. Gold and other safe havens have lifted, with Bitcoin accelerating after its recent breach above the $10K mark. The Shanghai Composite is down the most, off by 0.6% after the long

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Macro Afternoon

The return of Japanese traders and a still upbeat Wall Street saw most Asian stock markets advance, with the major macro event being the RBNZ holding their cash rate and the New Hampshire primary in the USA. Gold is slipping while Bitcoin breached $10K again, with Yen buying moderating and helping buoy the re-opening of

14

Blackmores is the dead Australian canary

Profit warning! After the downgrade, trading on 60x PE. This is Australia. In equal parts massively overvalued and overexposed to the Chinese shutdown. If Blackmores is right, and it takes three months to resume any kind of normalcy in China (let alone longer), then Australia will be sunk into deep recession mid-year as an income

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Macro Afternoon

It’s all engines ahead for risk as Chinese shares breakout, pushed along by a higher Aussie dollar and lower Yen as risk appetite comes back again here in Asia. Other safe havens like gold and Bitcoin are slipping while Japanese markets are closed for yet another holiday. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.5% after the

16

Transurban feasts on population ponzi

Transurban continues to feast on the ‘Big Australia’ mass immigration policy, delivering more strong growth on its toll road network: Transurban’s half-year profit rose by 11 per cent amid higher traffic on its toll roads in Australia… Net profit totalled $162m in the six months through December, rising from $145m a year ago. Proportional earnings

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk markets are oscillating between hope and fear with a swing to the former overnight on Wall Street overshadowing the fear in Asia yesterday. Commodities and undollar assets continued to fall however, with oil falling 2% to a new weekly low with only gold holding fast. Looking at Asian share markets performance

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Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are slipping again, with Asia reacting to the falls on Wall Street from Friday night in a similar direction and magnitude. Fear about the economic impact of the coronavirus continues to spread with safe havens like Yen, gold and even Bitcoin – now above $10,000USD – pulling risk assets down in the main.

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment continues to be all over the place with Wall Street falling on Friday night, despite a strong US jobs report that saw over 225K jobs added in January, although of course average earnings remain anemic. The market responded with a higher USD, lower bond yields as the 10 year Treasury

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets have moderated their recent gains with gold and Bitcoin the only undollar assets to advance. Moody’s and Fitch spoiled the party with a negative reaction to the Aussie economy, particularly the banks on the coronavirus impact as Chinese authorities try to damp down the growing outrage surrounding the government’s response to the

1

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment is now back to its pre-coronavirus levels, with Wall Street putting in new record highs and USD strengthening against almost everything, paving the way for further optimism. Notably, gold and Bitcoin are coming back too with the latter almost breaching the $10,000 level. Treasury yields remain slightly elevated as the

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Macro Afternoon

Its risk on across Asia as stock markets gather pace with big moves higher across the board, as undollar assets and safe havens are sold off. The bounce in oil prices is seeing commodity currencies like the Aussie dollar lift slightly, while gold is just holding to daily support as all risk goes into stocks

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Risk sentiment is improving everywhere with European and US stocks lifting strongly overnight, helped along by a very firm services ISM release in the US that smacked down all undollar assets. Oil prices finally lifted off the mat in the wake of probable OPEC production cuts due to the coronavirus, as other

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Macro Afternoon

Another sea of green across Asian stock market boards today, although Chinese stocks were much higher earlier in the session. Gold came back slightly after its big drop overnight even as USD strengthens against almost everything with offshore trading in Yuan seeing more weakness. The Shanghai Composite has given up some mid session gains but

2

LIT desperados attack Joye

Chris Joye at Livewire: I guess it is not surprising, because I have been repeatedly threatened by vested interests in the LIC/LIT debate with personal attacks unless I withdraw from it…And so it arrived: today a paid representative of the LIC/LIT lobby group LICAT, Dom McCormick, launched a crazy ad hominem assault on me to divert attention

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  European and US stocks took the positive Asian lead overnight with broad gains as the Chinese central bank pumped liquidity into the system to stave off the near 10% falls in Chinese stocks in the wake of the coronavirus. US factory order numbers also helped, with commodities finally lifting, and safe havens

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Macro Afternoon

A much better day for share markets here in Asia with a minor rebound following yesterday’s big selloff across the region.  The RBA meeting resulted in a hold and small blip higher for the depressed Australian dollar, while Yen continued to selloff giving domestic Japanese stocks a lift. The Shanghai Composite stabilised a little, lifting

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Wall Street moderated its falls from Friday night as the latest ISM manufacturing print surprised to the upside, with bond yields lifting. Commodities however remain depressed with oil prices heading lower once more, alongside industrial metals and even gold, which had seem some benefit recently from the safe haven trade. Currency markets

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Macro Afternoon

A bath of share price blood here in Asia today with a big selloff across the region following Wall Street’s falls on Friday.  The typical safe havens like Yen and gold have not spiked, given they made most of their gains previously, while oil prices have gained slightly from their overshoot. The Shanghai Composite finally

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Virus breaches stocks gamma

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Most of the headlines are still about the coronavirus, and its potentially severe impact on economic growth. But the underlying signal to monitor is volatility. We are witnessing a surge in equity market implied volatility, which could have some non-linear, and negative consequences in the short term. 2020 was

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Volatility is spiking again with Wall Street selling off sharply on Friday night and casting a dour start to trading here in Asia this week as Chinese traders return to their desks. Stocks fell nearly 2% while the usual safe havens were bid higher, namely Yen, gold and Treasuries as the USD

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Wall Street staged a last minute rally to stave off the wide falls on European markets as the 4Q GDP print came in strong but also just as the WHO marked a global emergency for the Chinese coronavirus. Pound Sterling jumped as the BOE held fire on interest rate cuts while Bitcoin

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have moved steadfastly into sell mode because of a lack of confidence on Wall Street overnight as economic fears surrounding the Chinese coronavirus continue to spread. A run on safe havens like Yen and gold while a big selloff in offshore Yuan is pushing stock markets into the red as yields drop on