Commodities

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Daily iron ore price update (conniption)

Texture from Reuters: China’s central province of Henan has issued an orange smog alert, the second highest in the nation’s three-tier pollution alarm system, which will be applied to 12 cities. The alert means pollution controls in heavy industries, including steel and coke, will be strengthened from Oct. 18 to Oct. 23. In China’s top

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Why iron ore is going back to $20

Via Argus: Higher pollutant emission standards for China’s steel industry continued to drive the country’s steel scrap usage for steel production higher in the first six months of this year. Chinese steel scrap consumption rose significantly, by 20.7pc on the year to 103.28mn t in January-June from 85.57mn t in the same period in 2018,

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Daily iron ore price update (all over the place)

Texture from Reuters: Trade tensions between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, are a significant source of risk for the global economy, with “real spillover effects” for emerging markets, top IMF officials said on Wednesday. demand in top consumer and producer China is forecast to grow just 1% next year, compared

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What killed coking coal?

Via Wood Mackenzie: There has been an uneasy tension around hard coking coal (HCC) prices for some time. Few would argue that US$200/t prices for seaborne HCCs were sustainable. But at the same time, the market had become accustomed to sky-high prices, kept artificially strong while China focused on restructuring its steel and coal sectors.

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Daily iron ore price update (the thumpening)

Texture from Reuters: Benchmark Dalian iron ore futures slumped in morning trade on Wednesday, extending losses into a third session, after China’s top steelmaking city of Tangshan issued a second-level smog alert that requires mills to further limit operations. …The losses widened further after China outlined its annual anti-pollution plan for winter in a document

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CBA: Iron ore to hammer nominal GDP, Budget

Via CBA today: Australia’s key commodity prices to ease from here ■ We see Australia’s key commodity prices moving lower from here. ■ But despite lower commodity prices, Australia’s external sector should have another good year as export volumes continue to lift and the lower Australian dollar boosts our competitiveness. ■ An expected decline in

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RIO opens iron ore flood gates

Via RIO: Pilbara operations Third quarter production of 87.3 million tonnes (Rio Tinto share 72.2 million tonnes) was 6% higher than the same quarter of 2018 and 10% higher than the previous quarter. This reflects a solid performance in the mines, with actions progressing as planned. Our increased focus on waste material movement and pit

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Vale readies the iron ore flood

Via Vale: Rio de Janeiro, October 14th, 2019 – Vale S.A (“Vale”) iron ore fines production and sales had a significant increase in 3Q19, as a result of the continuous progress in the resumption of operations in the Southern and Southeastern Systems and also due to the strong operational performance and shipments normalization in the

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Daily iron ore price update (under pressure)

Texture from Reuters: Benchmark Dalian iron ore and coke futures slumped more than 2% in late trade on Monday following growing concerns about demand for the steelmaking raw materials, amid China’s renewed efforts to curb pollution by restricting steel mills operations. “Traders have been wary of the impact of ongoing restrictions on steel mills in

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Daily iron ore price update (Q2, 2020)

Texture from Reuters: “The combination of weak demand and relatively high supply is weighing on steel prices,” said Richard Lu, senior analyst at metals consultancy CRU in Beijing. Reports that China’s top steelmaking city of Tangshan has issued new anti-pollution restrictions on mill operations, effective from Oct. 10 up to Oct. 31, did not help

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Daily iron ore price update (Vale)

Texture from Argus: “Steel mills in Tangshan have received the notice and started shutting down production. These set of restrictions are even stricter than the September restrictions,” said the manager of a Tangshan-based mill. “Restrictions will support steel prices. Iron ore demand may not fall significantly as sintering has been under controls of varying extents

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Daily iron ore price update (return to Eden)

Texture from Reuters: Steel sales in China, however, have softened as growth in the machinery sector slowed, while the offset from infrastructure has not been sufficient, Westpac analysts said. “The Chinese administration clearly stated at the July Politburo economic meeting that property will not be used to boost growth this time so this significant part

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Iron ore’s scraptastrophe builds

Recently even BHP was bearish about it: BHP stopped short of saying exactly when China would hit peak steel, choosing to say that it was plateauing and would peak sometime in the 2019-2025 timeframe. One Belt One Road (OBOR) was seen contributing to 1% pa growth in Chinese steel demand while domestically demand is flat.

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Commodity price slump to hammer national income

The RBA has released its commodity price index for August, which dived another 2.7% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and by 3.5% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for September indicate that the index decreased by 2.7 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms,

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UBS: BHP very bearish iron ore

Via UBS’ Glynn Lawcock: BHP painted a not too rosy a picture for the global economy saying it thought the business cycle had peaked with autos and semi-conductors putting a big hole in Europe and Japan growth while China policy is only helping to offset but not add to growth. Essentially BHP pointed to weak

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Daily iron ore price update (PMI sick)

Texture from Reuters: China will “continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and increase the strength of counter-cyclical measures”, the central bank said in a statement on Sunday. expect more policy easing/stimulus measures, including medium-term lending facility rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts through the rest of this year to stabilise market sentiment and bolster

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Government cuts commodity price outlook but not enough

Via Office of the Chief Economist: Australian resource exports appear likely to hold up in 2019–20, in the face of volatile commodity markets. Our new projection of $282 billion in exports in 2019–20 has shaved just $3 billion from our June 2019 Resources and Energy Quarterly projection. Export earnings in 2020–21 have been revised down

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Daily iron ore price update (coke broke)

Texture from Reuters: “The rebound in the futures markets is just sentiment-driven,” a Shanghai-based trader said. “It’s very quiet now in the physical market because of the upcoming holiday.” Cities surrounding Beijing have imposed routine output curbs on steel mills, coking coal producers and other industries to improve air quality as the nation prepares to

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Calls for domestic gas reservation as western pipeline mooted

Via AFR: Federal Resources Minister Matthew Canavan is under pressure to consider a blanket cap on LNG exports from Queensland as activist groups, including The Australia Institute, argue the existing LNG export control policy is only entrenching high prices for east coast gas users. “Placing a cap on LNG exports would ensure that gas saved

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Daily iron ore price update (Waiting for Godot)

Texture from Reuters: Prices of seaborne thermal and coking coal in China have declined by around 30% year-on-year, mainly driven by reduced demand, said Helen Lau, metals and mining analyst at Argonaut Securities. China’s coking coal purchases, meanwhile, have been “quite strong”, surging 20% to 53 million tonnes in the first eight months of this

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China: No stimulus for you!

Via Bloomie: China isn’t in a rush to add massive monetary stimulus, in contrast with other central banks around the world, and must maintain a prudent policy stance, central bank Governor Yi Gang said. Overall financial risks are contained and those in the shadow banking sector and some key institutions have been resolved, said Yi,