Via Credit Suisse: The price of Australian thermal coal sold to China (5500kcal high-ash) is being hit relative to competitors, at odds with assurances by the Chinese and Australian Governments that there is no ban on Australian coal at China ports. Whether there is a ban or just restrictions, the price suggests importers are not
Iron ore prices for March 17, 2019: Spot down. Paper up. Steel down. Still no clarity here.
Talk about taking the mickey. Asian gas prices have cratered in the past few months, via Bloomie: Even cheaper prices are available in Europe. The current Asian price translates to an Australian gas price around $7. Yet, as of Friday, east coast prices are where they have been for six months at $10Gj. Moreover, the
As the idiotic debate around new coal fired power stations goes on, there is finally some good news in the fight against the real culprit in utility price spikes, the gas cartel. Prices for utility scale solar plus storage are now at parity with gas powered electricity: Costs have been falling at 20% per annum,
Iron ore prices for March 14, 2019: Spot still range trading. We still don’t know where it is going. Same for the broader ferrous complex. Yesterday’s Chines data suggested that a headwind is still developing in real estate with sales still falling year on year and starts beginning to catch down: That is, despite
Iron ore price charts for March 12, 2019: Spot bounced. Paper firmed. Steel jumped. There’s still no clarity here, a point made nicely by Clyde Russell: The first fact worth noting is that China, which produces just over half of the world’s steel, hasn’t really slowed output of the metal much, despite considerable media reporting of
Iron ore prices for March 11, 2019: Spot tumbled. Paper held up overnight. Steel is soft. Chinese port stocks of iron ore climbed above 147mt last week. Brazilian exports to China were fine in February, up 24% year on year. It’s still too early to say if the crisis has been over-egged and Vale
Iron ore prices for March 9, 2018: Spot crunched. Paper more so overnight. Coking coal too. Steel OK. Chinese trade data showed a mixed picture with steel export up decently year on year over Jan/Feb: But that is usually a bearish signal for Chinese steel demand which only ships more oversees when local conditions deteriorate.
Iron ore prices for March 7, 2019: Spot up. Paper down. Steel weak. Coking coal too. Still no clarity here. The base case remains a steady fade in prices from these levels provided there is worse Vale news.
Via the AFR: Historical prices for gas would not even cover the cost of production now, said Johanna Boothey, commercial head of ExxonMobil Australia, which spent $120 million on a fruitless two-well search for new gas in the Bass Strait last year and recently completed a $5.5 billion investment in a new gas development. …Cooper
Iron ore prices for March 6, 2019: Spot smashed. Paper soft. Steel stable. Coking coal too. Still waiting for the fog to clear.
Iron ore prices for March 5, 2019: Spot defied paper falls. Steel fell. Coking coal is stable. Platts describes the fog surrounding Vale today: The iron ore market could lose as much as 90 million mt/year of supplies from Brazil — about a quarter of the country’s total export capacity — from output curbs following
The east coast gas cartel of BHP/Exxon, Santos, Origin and Shell has always been a grave national security threat given energy is the lifeblood of the modern economy. But if you want to see a direct threat to the national interest emanating from the gouging quintet then Orica just provided it for you: Orica is weighing
Via Reuters: Five LNG import projects are vying to start up between 2021 and 2022, possibly forcing gas users in New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria into more direct competition with Asian buyers for gas from northern Australia. Those states represent a yearly market of 420 petajoules (PJ), equivalent to 7.8 million tonnes
Iron ore prices for March 4, 2019: Spot down. Paper down more. Coking coal stable. Steel strong. We’re entering a seasonal period when iron ore would normally be falling but that has been badly compromised by the Vale accident and Chinese stimulus efforts such as they are. That has destocking mills battling with other extraneous
By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for February, which increased 4.8% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and rose by 4.6% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for February indicate that the index increased by 4.8 per cent (on a monthly average
by Chris Becker The cryptocurrency we love to hate is having a tough Monday morning with another weekend gapdown, falling to just above the $3800USD level: A lot of fingers burned from the recent uptick, with a big uptick of new entrants into the “scheme” as $15billion in market value was wiped off this morning.
Iron ore prices for February 21, 2019: Spot down. Paper down more. Steel up. Steel output remains very high. If bulks are really going to come off owing to weak demand I’s like to see output fall from these levels. Argus has some nice texture on mill raw materials management: Most mills surveyed by Argus
Well, don’t say we didn’t warn you. Via Reuters: Customs at China’s northern Dalian port has banned imports of Australian coal and will cap overall coal imports for 2019 through its harbours at 12 million tonnes, an official at Dalian Port Group told Reuters on Thursday. The indefinite ban on imports from top supplier Australia,
Iron ore prices for February 19, 2019: Looks like for now Vale is priced given the overnight news did not support the market. Unless we see some more materially damaging developments, weakening Chinese demand may begin to ease prices henceforth.
Iron ore prices for February 18, 2019: Spot and paper up. Steel down. Ferrous and steel markets are headed in opposite directions. This is unsustainable as Chinese steel mill profits collapse. Normally, bulks would getting caned right about now but the artificial prop is Vale, via AFR: Brazil’s government on Monday banned new upstream mining
Iron ore prices for February 14, 2019: We may be setting some kind of trading range in the $80s here but we’ll have to wait and see. I still expect mills to destock violently the moment they feel secure about Vale supplies. The signs in yesterday’s Chinese trade data confirm as much. Iron ore imports
I gave up on the Baltic Dry many years ago when a shipping glut dislocated it from wider global economic activity. Is it time to revisit it? If so, it is not painting a pretty picture: There are a few reasons to be wary of the crash: China’s recent rolling import coal bans are piling
Iron ore prices for February 13, 2019: Everything down but easing. Who knows where we go next in the short term? So long as there are no more Vale shocks then I’d expect material downside over the next three months but that’s in the lap of the mining gods now.
Iron ore prices for February 12, 2019: Spot is tumbling. Paper fell further overnight. The panic is ebbing. Clyde Russell has a nice little piece on where we’re headed: Firstly, Chinese steel mills can substitute higher-quality iron ore with lower grades, which are likely to be more readily available, but this will result in lower
Iron ore prices for February 11, 2018: Spot did its dash and paper flamed out overnight. Chinese steel production has started the year in decent shape. Who knows when the price spike will be over? The best way to think about it is temporary, via Westpac: Vale disaster boosts the spot price of iron ore
Iron ore prices for February 8, 2019: Spot to the moon. Paper too. Chinese steel trade resumes today. Expect price fireworks over the next few months. Then just as spectacular a crash as the Vale dust clears. The bulk commodity rocket has all but wiped out Chinese steel mill margins and the moment clarity is
Via UBS today: Court orders closure 30mtpa Brucutu mine; this was not expected by Vale Yesterday a Brazilian court ordered Vale to halt activity at 8 tailings dams, including 3 built using the “upstream” method & 5 “downstream” dams ( news); as a result of this Vale has stopped production at its 30mtpa Brucutu mine
Via CNBC: Exxon Mobil and Qatar Petroleum on Tuesday announced a final decision to finance a $10 billion-plus project to export liquefied natural gas from the Texas Gulf Coast. The decision moves forward the latest export terminal fueling growing shipments of U.S. LNG, or natural gas cooled to liquid form, for overseas travel. The Department
Thank goodness, via the AFR: Credit Suisse energy analyst Saul Kavonic said that despite the crowd of proposals, none may get a green light this year. “I remain sceptical of an LNG import terminal achieving FID [final investment decision] this year due to poor appetite by industrial buyers, social licence challenges, and the risk posed
