Iron ore prices for 17 September, 2020: Lot’s of media panic about the peak is in blah, blah, blah. This is classic seasonality: BTFD. China has the credit pedal to the metal and given what will be a shite global recovery will have to leave there in 2021: And there’s lots more restocking of ore
Via UNHCR today: Extractive industries 15. In January 2019, 270 people died when Vale’s Córrego do Feijão tailing dam in Brumadinho collapsed.13 Most of those killed were Vale workers having lunch in the cafeteria located directly below the tailings dam. The force of the toxic mud dismembered bodies, and shattered what was a bucolic community.
Iron ore prices for September 16, 2020: Seasonal weakness is upon us. We could easily fall to $100 over the next month or so. BTFD for a new year bounce if it fits your horizons. Chinese empty apartments are fine: There’s more where that came from as China drives into a new credit cycle: But
Iron ore prices for Septemeber 15, 2020: Baseline is last week’s prices. Overnight futures copped it. Spot prices remain strong: Steel is holding up: Yesterday’s China data cleared up any mystery about why prices are high with crazy steel output: As well, mills have a long way to restock iron ore inventory: This restock has
By Michael Every of Rabobank Today is like one of those rare occasions when the Broadway understudy for a leading role finds out that the star has the ‘flu (not Covid-19) and so they get to go in front of the audience for once. Yes, Europe, today is your time to shine: “Everything’s coming up
Iron ore prices for September 9, 2020: Chinese empty apartment sales have softened: Brazil is beating the virus: Down into Q3 seasonals ahead. Up into new year. Peak H1, 2021.
Via UBS: Will the restart of blast furnaces ex-China impact iron ore demand in 2H h/h? No. Over the last month a number of steel producers have restarted BFs which were hot-idled due to COVID-19. We estimate in total ~22 BFs are being restarted around the world or ~30% of the total idled. In our
Iron ore prices for September 8, 2020: Empty apartment sales are still OK: Plenty more useless building coming too: I still expect a significant near-term price correction on seasonals. A bid into New Year and mid-2021 peak into long falls.
Iron ore prices for September 7, 2020: Spot still strong. Paper too. China imported 100.4mt of iron ore in August: I still think we’re roughly at peak imports. Steel exports were buggered, as you’d expect: Empty apartment sales are softening: To wit: China Evergrande Group kicked off a nationwide sales promotion with its deepest ever
Iron ore prices for September 4, 2020: CISA steel output remains outrageous: The key driver, empty apartment sales, remain strong: And it’s not just sales, it’s inventory, at SCMP: China’s biggest developer are likely to step up price discounting this year to clear a growing pile of unsold homes, with authorities sounding another alarm in their
Via AFR comes an article titled China’s African iron ore adventure will be filler, not killer: China’s ambition to build an alternative iron ore industry in Africa will push down iron ore prices by a maximum of $US8 ($11) per tonne, hosing down suggestions it will be a “killer” for Australia’s biggest export industry. …SMB-Winning
Via SCMP: Iron ore miners‘ and steel producers’ increasing use of the Chinese yuan will increase its internationalisation, reduce China’s vulnerability to any possible US financial sanctions, and help the domestic economy in line with the new “dual circulation” strategy. By using the yuan rather than the US dollar to price iron ore, this will
Daily iron ore price update for Sep 3, 2020: New highs and my $130 target reached. But not for long given futures pricing overnight. Chinese empty apartments still strong (and they’re back at the movies): No change to my outlook. Seasonal weakness ahead. Higher into New Year. Top in April or June as Vale brings
Iron ore prices for September 3, 2020: Empty apartments still strong: Brazil virus: Still see prices firm for a bit, then seasonally weak, then up again into year-end. Topping around April.
Iron ore prices for September 1, 2020: Still strong pricing action. Chinese empty apartments likewise: And Brazilian virus: Brazil released export numbers yesterday and they were OK but nothing great: Volumes are nearly restored to pre-COVID levels so that is some risk out of the market. But it remains to be seen if volumes can
Iron ore prices for August 31, 2020: Prices are still strong but the China steel PMI is fading, down 47 headline and 45.6 new orders: New exports orders are disastrous at 35. There were flood disruptions. But overall, we are back at levels I would normally associate with price deflation. Property sales still look fine:
Iron ore prices for August 29, 2020: Spot and paper up as DXY pukes on Fed. Chinese empty apartment sales are still strong: Plenny of virus in Brazil: Still bullish unless or until Vale brings the volumes.
The market will respond. With the Australian Government’s protected gas cartel driving power prices mad from 2015 guess what? At Bloomie: Australians’ fervent embrace of rooftop solar is forcing the grid to become more flexible. The shift has carved out daytime demand for traditional generation and caused bigger fluctuations in electricity use across the day,
I’ve been arguing this week that both Twiggy Forrest and Gina Rinehart would be wise to consider a float of their respective iron ore businesses in the near future. The reason is straightforward. The iron ore trade is at a cyclical high just as Chinese global relations are undergoing a structural deterioration as Beijing launches
Iron ore prices for August 26, 2020: Spot up. Paper up more. Steel has not updated. Chinese daily empty apartment sales are still fine: Brazil is still sick: And there is much more Chinese restocking to do. That said, my earlier worries about rebounding Vale volume are resurfacing, via Bloomie: By at least one measure,
Iron ore prices for August 25, 2020: CISA steel output remains huge: As empty apartment sales rise: More: In other news, there was a mysterious crash in Australian exports in July, at the AFR: Iron ore exports to China fell 12 per cent or $1.11 billion to $8.12 billion, while coal exports to the country
Via the FMG true believers: Sitting atop a cash machine disguised as Australia’s third-largest iron ore miner, Fortescue Metals Group chief executive Elizabeth Gaines was justifiably emphatic about the importance of Australia’s increasingly testy trade relationship with China. “We can’t lose sight that we are a trading nation,” she implored, adding that the miner “didn’t
Iron ore prices for August 24, 2020: There are port problems that are clearing: The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) said on Tuesday that iron-ore discharging difficulties and port congestion issues are likely to ease in mid- or late-August as the weather improves and the coronavirus is under control. This is old news but
Via FMG this morning It’s halftime in the MB versus Twiggy great game. We won the first quarter up to 2015 as FMG nearly went under. Twiggy handed us a toweling in the second quarter as FMG rebounded thanks to a fantastic string of good fortune in Chinese rationalisation, Brazilian accidents and global pandemics. But
Great work from Ian Verrender at the ABC: It’s always a good time for a bit of nation-building. And there’s no better time than when the chips are down. While argument rages as to how best to fight our way out of the worst economic downturn in more than a century, the corporate world last
Iron ore prices for August 22, 2020: Most measures down. I’ve dropped SGX. It’s become little more than the Dalian dag. Port inventories lifted to new highs but they have 30mt to go. Steel mill must be hurting on margins, though it does not matter given their policy role now. Empty apartment sales still booming
Iron ore prices for August 20, 2020: Chinese empty apartment sales still to the moon: Plenny of Brazilian virus: No change. Bullish.
According to BofA: Foreign firms looking to move their manufacturing processes outside of China in the wake of coronavirus could face $1 trillion in costs over five years, according to new Bank of America research. However, the bank argues that such a move would likely be beneficial for companies in the long term. Even before
Iron ore prices for August 19, 2020: Nothing changed. Empty apartment sales to the moon: Brazilian virus strong: Onwards and upwards.
Iron ore prices for August 18, 2020: Do not adjust your TV. Spot is approaching my $130 target and I may have been too bearish. Paper to the moon. Rebar too. I suspect coking coal is being destocked in a desperate bid to sustain steel mill profitability. This still has a month or so to
