As expected: Preliminary estimates for January indicate that the index increased by 7.3 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after increasing by 8.5 per cent in December (revised). The non-rural, rural and base metals sub-indices all increased in the month. In Australian dollar terms, the index increased by 4.8 per cent in January. Over the past year,
Iron ore prices for Feb 1, 2021: Spot and paper down. Steel has not updated. Port inventory rose last week to 126.2mt: Yesterday China steel PMI was poor. The headline number is OK at 43 with new year output pumping on the inventory build. But new orders have cratered: This may be temporary based upon
Iron ore prices for January 29, 2021: Spot and paper up. Steel table. China has received its first new load of scrap steel since easing the border: The first cargo of recycled steel bought after China reopened its doors to ferrous scrap imports has arrived and been discharged, and initial market apprehension around whether it
Iron ore prices for January 28, 2020: Spot down. Paper down. Steel OK. I’m going to call it today: the peak is in. In short: so far, La Nina disruptions have been minimal but this remains the biggest upside price risk; Chinese inventories are still low but there appears limited appetite to restock further with
Iron ore prices for January 27, 2020: Via Reuters: As a result of a sharp rise in production costs and weak steel demand, “steel companies in the north have already suffered large-scale losses”, Sinosteel Futures analysts said in a note. “Market demand for raw materials is expected to deteriorate further in the near future,” Sinosteel
Via MySteel: Beijing has been working quietly on carbon emission cuts for a few years but its open pledge in 2020 to peak the country’s carbon emission by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 has undoubtedly imposed more pressure publicly on the steel industry, the country’s second largest carbon emission source only after
Iron ore prices for January 26, 2021: Spot and paper down a bit. Steel is stable. CISA output for early January is utterly out of control. Expect a huge inventory build over the next month.
It’s not new. We’ve seen it before. Every attempt fails. But a new plan is afoot to end China’s real estate driven growth addiction that keeps Australian iron ore above $30. Via Societe Gereral: Policy directions in 2021: normalisation, de-risking and reforms The Central Economic Work Conference reiterated policymakers ’intention to continuing with policy normalisation
Via Morgan Stanley: Increasing noise on possible policy reversal: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported yesterday that the Chinese government was in the preliminary stages of lifting its informal ban on Australian coal imports, but that such a move would still need to be approved by senior leaders. There has been no official comment on the article.
Iron ore prices for January 21, 2021: Spot and paper up. CISA released late December steel output: There was a serious demand surge into late December in China. This was the same period that steel inventories got run down so it was big. It helps explain some of the explosive price action. No change to
Iron ore prices for January 20, 2021: Spot and paper down. Steel is OK. The latest outlook for the Port Hedland cyclone is improved: This market is making me nervous. It’s very high. Xi has shattered Dalian volumes. Without further weather disruptions, it’s feeling toppy.
Via Westpac: December saw a sharp increase in coal exports with volumes from Newcastle at a 4 month high; Dalrymple/ Hay Point at a 6 month high and Gladstone at 1yr high. This jump in volumes brings the total for 2020 to 364mt, down 5% versus 2019 and 3% versus 2018. Exports in Q42020 were
BOM cyclone forecast: A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 am AWST near 11.8S 124.8E, that is 740 km north northeast of Broome and 1160 km northeast of Port Hedland and moving west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is moving towards the west southwest and is expected to gradually strengthen. It
Iron ore prices for January 19, 2021: Spot and paper down. Not much in news. Via Westpac, Aussie iron ore volumes have been expanding slowly: Our bulk shipping activity models point to a noticeable increase in iron ore exports from Australia in December, with a forecast of 78.6mt. While that is up 8mt from the
China’s house prices are out. They lifted just 0.1% for a second month and 3.8% on the year: The majority of cities saw stable or falling prices: Top tier is dead, others are slowing: Prices are probably not yet slow enough to trigger a building bust they are trending that way and an easing in
Iron ore price for January 18, 2021: Spot is firm. Paper took off. Rebar has not updated. Looking forward, Clive Russell has the right idea: At the same time Beijing opened the stimulus taps, there were supply concerns, particularly in number two exporter Brazil, and third-ranked South Africa, as mines and transport systems were hit
Iron ore prices for January 15, 2021: Everything firm. Port stocks fell last week to around 125mt. China imported 96.75mt in December and 1.17bn in 2020, up 9.5%: As for the year ahead, my thoughts are these: Chinese iron ore restocking is ongoing (bullish); Chinese mills have run down COVID steel stocks (bullish); global recovery
Via the AFR: Policy changes flagged by politicians and government departments in Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh, and a full moratorium on new coal plants in the Philippines, may result in just 25 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-power projects getting built this year. That is an 80 per cent reduction from the 125GW planned five years ago,
Via SCMP: Brazilian port operator Grao Para Multimodal’s executive director, Paulo Salvador, knows there is plenty of untapped high-grade iron ore in northern Brazil, but a mix of bureaucracy and limited capital have stymied efforts to begin production for years. Across the states of Para, Piaui and Tocantins, there are at least three mines amounting
Via Goldman: 1) OPEC and Georgia help neutralize near-term risks. The events of last week substantially reduced the downside risks to our bullish commodity narrative — a fact reflected in the rise in oil and copper alongside the sharp decline in gold. First, Saudi Arabia agreed to a unilateral production cut that neutralized current lockdown
Via Argus: Strong consumer demand, lower-than-expected temperatures across northeast Asia and a severe shortage of prompt LNG supplies and spot tanker availability have combined to send northeast Asian spot LNG prices to an all-time high — just nine months after hitting record lows. The front half-month ANEA price surged to $21.785/mn Btu for first-half February
The RBA has released its commodity price index for December, which surged 8.6% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – to be 11.7% higher over the year: Preliminary estimates for December indicate that the index increased by 8.6 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after
Iron ore prices for December 18, 2020: Spot to the moon with more to come. Paper is wild. The steel market is now being forced to absorb the inflation which is even more bullish. $200 ahead is still quite realistic.
The local CCP apologists always see Bejing “playing the long game”, even when all it is doing is following the blundering dictates of an angry tyrant. The Times: China is suffering mass power cuts in the south, prompting cities to dim street lights, suspend factory production and tell office blocks to turn off heating unless
Iron ore prices for December 17, 2020: Spot is going to new highs today after paper blasted off last night. Steel is still rising so some inflation is being passed on. There is no near term end to this: Chinese demand is excellent; Chinese inventories are short; ex-China demand is recovering; DXY is getting hammered;
That’s the question that has plagued me for ten years. Via James White of Lessep Investment Management, at the AFR: If China’s annual residential property sold was built in Eureka Towers (14,000 of them) and one constructed every 65 metres, it would line the Hume Highway from Sydney to Melbourne. In terms of population, 14,000
Via Goldman: Growth to feel the weight of policy normalization in 2021While the near-term growth picture looks encouraging, tightening is clearly the direction of travel when it comes to policy. To be clear, we expect stable policy rates and no hikes in OMO or MLF rates next year. This is because interest rates have mostly
Iron ore prices for December 16, 2020: Spot up. Paper eased overnight. Steel went pop after China’s impressive data dump. No change for me. Higher yet into Q2 next year.
Iron ore prices for December 15, 2020: Spot up. Dalian paper up to a new record high. Steel is stuck. Port inventories have started to fall as Chinese mills desperately seek to fend off prices. If it continues, this will only prolong their pain, but it does weigh on prices at the margin. Yet not
Iron ore prices for December 14, 2020: Spot flamed out. Paper too. Steel has not updated. Yesterday’s outburst in Beijing about unfair trade practices managed a little correction. But, fear not, such tantrums are typical for this time in the cycle. Beijing and CISA have been spitting the dummy during price spikes like this for
