Iron ore prices for April 14, 2020: Steel exports jumped in March but it looks very much like an anomaly after two very week months and lagged orders. Expect a crash ahead: Iron ore imports are falling away as steel mills curtail output to destock the steel inventory Everest: There no demand pressure here. Rolling
Iron ore prices for April 13, 2020: Everything bounced. Steel inventories are falling now as mills constrain output: Needless to say, there is a long way to go. For now, the new Chinese credit flood lifted spirits: Lost in the euphoria is the fact that much of this is NOT stimulus so much as it
Iron ore prices for April 7, 2020: Spot up following Dalian. Steel is trending lower. It should be crashed but that will have to do, at Reuters: Nippon Steel Corp, Japan’s biggest steelmaker, will temporarily shut two blast furnaces in Japan later this month to cope with declining demand due to the coronavirus pandemic, it
Iron ore price for April 7, 2020: Not much news to report. I still see prices falling away from here as the global recession deepens. The only real risk to that is if the virus forces some further large scale shutdowns for Vale or elsewhere. Via Platts: Steel demand is falling outside China, with Japan’s
Iron ore prices for April 3, 2020: Spot is at the lows of its recent trading range. Paper too. I’m not sure what’s happened to coking coal futures and whether this is reflected in the physical market. I will report back on that. Brazil released March export figures of 21.71mt which is terrible thanks to
Iron ore price charts for April 2, 2020: Spot up. Paper too. Not sure what happened to coking coal. The price rose but the price deck fell. There are small changes in news from South Africa, Brazil and India but nothing material. No change for me. I see prices plodding lower all year from here.
Iron ore prices for April 1, 2020: Spot soft. Paper too. And steel. We appear to finally readying to shunt lower here. And why not? Chinese steel ouput has been cut: But inventories remain unbelievable: And the world is shutting down, via FT: The world’s biggest iron ore producer said prices for the steel ingredient
The RBA has released its commodity price index for March, which tanked 3.7% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and slumped by 10.2% over the year: Preliminary estimates for March indicate that the index decreased by 3.7 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after
Iron ore prices for March 31, 2020: Spot is still holding. Paper too. Steel prices are only eroding slowly. Port stocks of iron ore fell to 121.7mt. I have explined before why it is not that unreasonable that iron ore prices have held up given various supply restrictions. The real miracle is Chinese steel prices.
Iron ore prices for March 30, 2020: Spot was hit. Paper was mauled as contracts rolled forward. Steel too. This is what I expect for the rest of the year. More and more pricing pain as the global depression sucks away demand more fully than supply is curtailed by the virus.
Via Bloomie: American pipeline operators have begun asking oil producers to voluntarily ratchet back their output in the clearest sign yet that a growing glut of crude is overwhelming storage capacity. Plains All American Pipeline LP, one of the biggest shippers of crude in the U.S., sent a letter this week asking its suppliers to
Iron ore prices for March 26, 2020: We’re waiting out the shifts in supply and demand. Roughly 80mt of supply is offline as South Africa shuts, joining Vale’s closures. But, Chinese iron ore output was running at 140mt before the virus. It’s a lot easier to shut a mine than it is a blast furnace
Iron ore prices for March 25, 2020: News is Wood Mac has turnied bearish following resilient prices “This is largely due to the resilience of Chinese hot metal production, coinciding with supply-side constraints in Brazil and Australia. …iron ore’s sell-off over the past few days is the start of a trend, not a blip,” adding
Iron ore price charts for March 23, 2020: Spot smashed. Paper too. Steel fell. Port sotcks fell away to 123.7mt. I was all ready to declare the crash at hand. No cigar. Via Bloomie: South Africa will close its mines for an unprecedented 21 days as part of a nationwide lockdown announced by President Cyril
Iron ore prices for March 20, 2020 Prices fell after Vale revealed it’s not shutting its Malaysian terminal after all. The steel Everest has finally passed its zenith: Steel and iron ore prices to be crushed in due course as the world shutters.
Iron ore prices for March 18, 2020: Dalian was boosted yesterday by this: Brazilian iron ore producer Vale has shut its Teluk Rubiah iron ore blending terminal in Malaysia until 31 March to comply with a lockdown aimed at slowing the coronavirus outbreak. The Malaysian government has asked Vale to halt operations at the terminal
Iron ore prices for March 17, 2020: The office of Chief Economist is out today with a revised outlook and see sizeable price falls ahead: For that 2019/20 average to reach $75CFR is will need to fall a fair bit into FYQ4. The good news is the free falling AUD has local prices actually rising.
Iron ore price charts for March 16, 2020: Still no market here to assess.
This from Vale: Vale informs on developments related to the outbreak of the coronavirus Rio de Janeiro, March 12th, 2020 – Vale S.A. (“Vale”) would like to take this opportunity to formally update the market on the steps and policies that it is taking to safeguard its employees and its business operations from the threats
We could have had it any time. But 6k dead from COVID-19 has finally delivered cheap gas to the east coast, appoaching $4Gj spot: It’s still a little above net-back but pretty close: Even contract gas (95% of the market) has fallen to about $8Gj which is still ourageously expensive and far above our Asian
Iron ore prices for March 13, 2020: Spot up. Paper to the moon. Steel strong. This is a nonsnese market now. Check this out: China’s latest steel inventories are now 25mt above last year. That’s 40mt of iron ore right there which more than accounts for mill and port lowish inventories of dirt. The outlook
Iron ore price charts for March 10, 2020: Spot blast off. Paper too. Steel is holding. I still get why iron ore can be strong for now, at The Australian: “Iron ore is very strong and that’s because there are some supply side dislocations and it’s hard for China for example to get their workforce
Iron ore prices for March 9, 2020: Spot down. Paper too. But it’s the calm that impresses. Port stocks eased agin last week to 126.25mt. China is relatively short of iron inventory after last year’s Vale-inspired draw down. That said, I still don’t get why steel prices aren’t crashing amid the glut. Still lot’s of
Iron ore price update for March 6, 2020: Spot was down. Paper too. Chinese imports of iron ore for January/February were 177mt, up marginally on last year. The rolling annunal measure is stalling just above zero. The oil price crash should drag iron ore lower. It is the major imput cost for mining and logistics.
Iron ore prices for March 5, 2020: We’re still flopping around between restocking on stimulus hopes and titanic steel inventories that are still rising: Longer term, the future just got a little darker, at Bloomie: China is close to giving the go-ahead for some of its biggest state-owned companies to develop the giant Simandou iron
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released trade data for the month of January, with Australia’s trade surplus falling by around $150 million to $5.2 billion: The next chart shows that Australia’s trade surplus is still running at strong levels: In January, both exports (credits) and imports (debits) fell: In seasonally adjusted terms, goods
Iron ore price charts for March 3, 2020: Spot down. Paper down. Steel up. Strong iron ore prices can to some extent be explained by shockingly weak Brazilian exports. The last three months have seen some 120mt of annualised supply offline: If it were not for COVID-19, I reckon iron ore would back above $120
Iron ore prices for March 2, 2020: Spot soared. Paper soared. Steel soared. The steel PMI cratered. Everything is too disrupted to make much sense. Argus sums up the hope: Demand for steel collapsed following the impact of the coronavirus outbreak amid delays in resuming work at downstream companies. Demand for steel from overseas markets
Iron ore prices for February 29, 2020: We are surely going to break down here across the board. China does not have great iron ore inventories but its steel pile keeps hitting new Hiamlyan heights. Now approaching 50mt with several weeks of seasonal accumulation ahead even without terrible demand: And local mines should reopen. Aside
From CISA comes more evidence that all is not well with the ferrous complex: \ It was a great start ot the year but then CODID-19. Suddenly mill output is well below 2019 and headed south. Despite the fall, this: More output cuts ahead as demand struggles to lift, even as local mining resumes and
