From the IEA overnight: Oil production growth from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway can keep the world well supplied, more than meeting global oil demand growth through 2020, but more investment will be needed to boost output after that, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest annual report on oil markets. Over the
Iron ore prices for March 5, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell $2 to $75.65. Paper down more overnight. Steel is easing. Muted stuff really. Just blowing the recent froth off. Macquarie has some bullish reasoning: Virtually all of the producers we covered are in the money as prices are well above the seaborne marginal cost (SMC),
By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for February, which increased another 1.8% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – as well as by 3.8% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for February indicate that the index increased by 1.8 per cent (on a
Iron ore prices for March 2, 2018: Tianjin benchmark got whacked -2.4% to $77.65. Paper fell further overnight. Steel fell. Two more charts to complete the picture. CISA steel mill output for early February lifted 1.6% to 1.78mt and is running at levels solidly above last year. But the huge spreads we saw between mid-2017
Iron ore prices for March 1, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 70 cents to $79.60. Paper was hit overnight on the Trump tariffs. Steel still looks firm. The Trump tariffs are not a big deal for China at all, via Goldman: But there will be some marginal impact on seaborne iron ore. US steel output
Via The Australian: Gas buyers and sellers have cast doubt on the ability of Queensland’s vast coal seam gas fields to supply coming export and domestic demand in the wake of Origin Energy’s downgrade of reserves at its Ironbark coal seam gas project. EnergyAustralia energy boss Mark Collette said the fields, which underpinned development of
Via Domainfax: The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has slammed the gas market and the ban on exploration by some states, saying the fundamental supply problem is causing prices to stay too high. Director of the ACCC’s gas inquiry unit, Nicole Ross, said there were three choices for the market, firstly it could return to
Iron ore prices for February 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 65 cents to $78.90. Paper and steel are still firm. The China steel PMI fell to 49.5. There’ll be more noise ahead for that as Winter shutdowns pass but the trend is unmistakable. Vale results have thrown up some points. Samarco is till in the offing:
Iron ore prices for February 27, 2018: Tianjin benchmark was down 40 cents to $79.55. Paper stalled. Steel too. It’s tempting to call the top here given prices are way overheated, inventories crazy and the US dollar rising. But I’ll hold off. Weather is still a risk and the Q1 steel rebuild not yet
Via Reuters: China’s top steelmaking city of Tangshan has proposed new restrictions on production once the current curbs expire in March in order to improve air quality, according to a draft document reviewed by Reuters. Under the proposal from the government dated February 12, the city’s mills will continue limiting production for 244 days between March 16
Iron ore price charts for February 26, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 75 cents to $79.75. Steel was strong. Paper less so. No surprises here. Q1 is usually strong. We’re setting up a great short pushing towards mid-year. World Steel released output numbers for January: World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World
Iron ore prices for February 23, 2018: Spot up. Paper up. Steel up. Those charts look like they want to go higher. Sure could in the near term. Q1 strong then Q2 weak. Meanwhile, the seasonal Chinese steel restock goes on with trader inventories hitting 5.4mt in early February: Given the rebuild usually runs
Iron ore price for February 22, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 20 cents to $78.o5. Paper was stable. Steel fell. Yawn. Wake me up in Q2.
Via UBS: Results below expectations, dividend small consolation Today’s result did not quite meet market expectations, which was largely due to oneoffs such as smelter maintenance at OD, a fire at WAIO, and write-offs at Escondida. Underlying EBITDA was US$11,238m (+14% y/y) vs UBSe US$11,838m & cons of US$11,593m. FCF of US$4.9bn beat UBS expectations
Lordy, some sense on Adani, via The Guardian: The shadow climate change minister, Mark Butler, has warned the development of the Galilee basin is not in Australia’s national interest, because it would displace mining and jobs in existing coal regions, and would not help the world meet its obligations under the Paris climate agreement. Butler
Iron ore prices for February 14, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 40 cents to $78.25. No change. Firm prices through Q1, weakening in Q2. China is on holiday’s now and all next week.
Via UBS: February 2018 reporting season kicks off Reporting season kicked off with RIO on 07 Feb delivering a 69% growth in profit and returning 49% of cash generated to shareholders, setting the scene for what could be a cash bonanza for shareholders. Cash returns to be the focus of the major miners We expect
Via Reuters: South Korea’s Korea Gas Corp has entered court-administered arbitration with Australian joint venture North West Shelf Gas seeking to settle a dispute over a liquefied natural gas (LNG) contract that expired in 2016. A spokesman for the state-run Korean firm, known as KOGAS, confirmed an arbitration process was under way but declined to
Iron ore price charts for February 13, 2018: Tianjin benchmark up $1.30 t0 $77.85. Paper too. Steel stuck. We’re range trading. CISA output fell 1.3% in late January. Not a great sign for demand. More on discounts today: Mt Gibson Iron has become the latest iron ore producer to describe the wide price gap between
But we’re getting a little taste of it now, via AFR: The unexpectedly tight liquefied natural gas market in Asia is complicating Australian regulatory efforts to prioritise the domestic market for east coast gas, helping drive up local prices for the fuel in January despite soft demand. Imports of LNG by Japan, the world’s biggest
DXY lifted modestly Friday night: AUD rebounded with risk against DMs: Was mixed against EMs: Gold struggled: Oil was crushed: Base metals fell: Big miners lifted anyway: EM stocks rebounded: Junk didn’t: Treasuries were bid and the curve steepened: Same for bunds: European stocks were crushed. US too but then rebounded strongly into the close: The
Iron ore price charts for February 9, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 41.30 to $76.55. Paper stable Steel stalled. No change to outlook.
Iron ore price charts for February 8, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 35 cents to $77.85. Paper jumped overnight. Steel is stuck. News of the day was Chinese trade data which showed big January import tonnages at 100mt: The chart still looks toppy to me but Dalian is never one to look a gift horse in
From Goldman today: We recently highlighted correction risk, in part due to bullish positioning – our risk appetite indicator was at the highest level on record. The S&P 500 pulled back c.8% since January 26th, other equity markets followed and bonds have not hedged well. The S&P 500 has underperformed relative to its MSCI World
From ORG today: The worthless $80bn LNG white elephant is the gift that keeps on giving. It runs at huge all-in cost losses triggering these write downs, while operating at fabulous cash break even gains thanks to drip feeding gas into the east coast economy. This write down is not paid for by shareholders, it
DXY roared back last night: AUD was creamed against DM: And weak against EM: Oil was smashed: Gold crumbled: Base metals too: And big miners: EM stocks are going lower: Junk held up but it is a big canary if it goes: Treasuries sold and curve steepened: Bunds the same: Stocks rose then fell: Two
Bang! Here it is: More from John Kemp: U.S. crude oil production is set to increase by more than 1.2 million barrels per day in 2018 compared with 2017, according to the latest short-term forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. crude production will average almost 10.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year
Iron ore price for February 7, 2018: Tianjin benchmark jumped $1.50 to $77.50. Steel is stalled. Coking coal looks to be running out of rope. In news, Goa is out again: The Supreme Court today quashed the second renewal of iron ore mining leases given to 88 companies in Goa in 2015. The apex court
Anyone would think that the Adani mine was viable, from The Australian: Labor frontbenchers have warned Bill Shorten that the opposition cannot be seen as “anti-coal” and urged him to shift the Adani debate away from “green” issues and on to public funding and alleged flaws in the approval process. Labor right-wing MPs have begun
Iron ore price update for February 6, 2018: Tianjin benchmark was up 5 cents to $76. Steel is stable. Coking coal running on weather. Chinese port stocks were down 1.02mt last week but that could also be weather impacted. Port Hedland shipments fell in January to 41.1mt from 46.6mt in December, also likely owing to
