Daily iron ore price update (China reaches for the revolver)

The ferrous complex tumbled on February 22, 2021: The big news is this: China is escalating its intervention into iron ore markets by reportedly setting up a single, state-backed platform for purchasing the bulk commodity in a move that could have far-reaching implications on Australia’s top export and its producers. Beijing is planning to make


Daily iron ore price update ($100)

The ferrous complex bounced on Friday 18 February 2022 after a brutal week of selling: There is nothing to suggest any improvement in fundamentals. Adjusted for LNY, steel demand and supply look very weak: Westpac’s Robert Rennie is onto it: “Many commodities have critically low inventories, but there’s no sign of that in iron ore


Daily iron ore price update (done and dusted)

The ferrous complex was hammered again on February 17, 2022 as spot was hit, paper crashed overnight and steel is in retreat: The reasons are obvious: Chinese authority has asked some iron ore trading companies to release “excessively high” inventory and bring the stocks to reasonable levels as soon as possible, following a joint investigation


Immense discounting hammers Fortescue

Fortescue’s half-year was an eye-popper: • Ongoing improvement in safety with the Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) of 1.8 for the 12 months to 31 December 2021, 14 per cent lower than 31 December 2020 • Strong operating performance across the supply chain contributed to record half year iron ore shipments of 93.1 million


Daily iron ore price update (limit down again)

The ferrous complex was smashed again on February 15, 2022: Bloomie has more: On Tuesday, some Chinese iron ore trading firms were summoned to a meeting with a trio of powerful government departments — including the markets regulator, the economic planning agency, and the securities regulator — to discuss “abnormal” prices. The companies were warned against


Goldman’s commodity spruik enters bubble territory

Goldman loves a good bubble: More: The opportunity to buy commodities has rarely been better. Unlike financial markets, physical market fundamentals are devoid of expectations and do not respond to macro talk. Future rate hikes of 50bps or even 100bps, designed to slow growth over a year from now, do not affect spot assets such


Global energy outlook brightens a bit

There are signs that the global energy shock has peaked and is coming off. Let’s begin at the top with oil. The latest from the EIA short-term outlook: Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $87 per barrel (b) in January, a $12/b increase from December 2021. Crude oil prices have risen steadily since mid-2020 as


Morrison’s corrupt carbon tax triggers renewables boom

The energy debate in Australia remains paralytically stupid. Readers will recall the following: Gas exports via QLD skyrocketed local gas prices from 2014. Indeed local prices were pushed much higher than those in the export destinations of gas-poor north Asia. The price hikes from $2Gj to $20Gj cascaded through utility bills directly for gas and


Australia’s trade surplus continues to retrace

The ABS today released trade data for December, with the seasonally adjusted balance on goods and services surplus decreasing $1.4 billion to $8.36 billion: Goods and services credits (exports) rose $360 million (1%) to $45,320 million driven by a rise in exports of Metal ores and minerals. Goods and services debits (imports) also rose $1,761


Commodity prices are bonkers

Wall Street’s commodities bubble is going swimmingly. The latest bucket shop to push the new ‘supercycle’ is Morgan Stanley: Commodities outperformed equities in 2021, but only for the second time in a decade. It didn’t used to be like this: in half the years between 1970 and 2010, commodities beat equities. Given several tailwinds, we


Daily iron ore price update (thin boom)

The ferrous complex powered on January 27, 2022: Clyde Russell is useful today:  Iron ore is enjoying a rally built largely on two factors that have yet to eventuate, a renewed building boom in China and possible supply disruptions in top exporter Australia. On the first, any Chinese rebound is, at this stage lacking any


Daily iron ore price update (Ukraine bid)

The ferrous complex is reaching into the higher airs as the Ukraine bid charges the market: There is nothing to support this fundamentally, as we see in steel lagging. Chinese property continues to deteriorate: Property sales are terrible. Down 30% on the year along with starts. Funding for developers shows no turn at all: There


Daily iron ore price update (flame out)

The ferrous complex flamed out on January 24, 2022: Not much to report beyond global market jitters. Chinese property is chewing through its problems: China’s efforts to spur asset sales by cash-strapped developers are starting to gain momentum with a flurry of deals involving state-run rivals, potentially easing the industry’s debt crisis. In recent days,