Via UBS: Checking in with Platts Steel Raw Material Analysts We hosted Paul Bartholomew (Senior Managing Editor, Steel Markets) and Jeffery Lu (Managing Editor, Met Coal) to discuss their respective markets and COVID-19. While the LT implications of the outbreak remain uncertain, the immediate impact on productivity is becoming apparent. Platts is concerned that the
Via the AFR: “You just have to look at the numbers of Chinese tourists and Chinese students that come to Australia – it’s significant – it’s in the millions,” JPMorgan Asset Management’s head of fixed income Bob Michele said. “Coming off the bushfires, and now with coronavirus, everyone is trying to estimate what the impact
Iron ore price for February 17, 2020: Spot is still running. Paper even harder. Port stocks fell a little. This is normal restocking for this time of year, so long as you overlook COVID-19. It doesn’t make sense to me given the size of the demand hit but it is at least arguable. And it
Via BHP just now: Six months ago, at the time of our full year results for the 2019 financial year, an air of prudent caution permeated commodity markets. On balance, events since that time have justified that caution. The result has been a mixed price performance by our key commodities.1 Demand for oil, metallurgical coal and copper was weaker
Iron ore prices for Febraury 14, 2020: Spot stable. There is evidence of manipulation in DCE paper. Every day last week it surged in the final minutes of trade amd physical has dislocated. If I had to guess I’d say the big miners, or trading allies, are behind it. Innews, the virus impact is still
Via Argus: Chinese steelmakers remain partially blocked from shipping steel and steel feedstocks as a result of transport restrictions across provinces and at ports. Government officials restricted deliveries to slow the spread of the coronavirus, with the most stringent controls in Hubei province, eastern China’s Zhejiang province and neighbouring areas. Beijing has urged businesses to restart,
Iron ore prices for February 13, 2020: The market calmed down a bit. Physical underperforming paper can signal toppyness. Via Reuters: China’s iron ore futures extended gains into a third straight session on Thursday as concerns over supply cuts from Brazil and Australia drove spot prices of the bulk commodity higher, but worries over the
Iron ore prices for February 12, 2020: Spot up strongly. Paper too. Steel less. Is it time for a virus boom? No. But at least there is now an argument for the price strength after Vale confessed yesterday, via the AFR: Vale previously pledged to produce between 68 million and 73 million tonnes of iron
Via Reuters: * The Baltic index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities, rose 7 points, or 1.7%, to 418. * The main index slid to its lowest level since March 2016 in the previous session. * Demand has already been hit strongly in China, which accounts for
Iron ore price for February 11, 2020: Spot roared. Paper too. And steel. It’s hard to believe that this is the bottom but who knows? The newsflow is not encouraging, via SCMP: New homes sales declined by 56 per cent year on year in 17 major mainland China cities, including Shanghai and Nanjing, during the
It’s not clear why but it’s looking pretty excited: There’s no news that I can find beyond some snippets from Brazil: For the first five working days of February, soybean exports declined to 198,600 tonnes per day on average from 263,500 tonnes per day for February 2019, according to Economy Ministry figures. Iron ore exports
Iron ore prices for February 10, 2020: Spot down. Paper too. Steel is holding. Iron ore port inventory has begun to climb, hitting 131.1mt last week. More of that ahead which will help absorb some volumes excess to demand. Nothing much else to say. We’re just waiting for the hammer to land.
Hoocoodanode? The Australian dollar is trading right at the breakdown line: Bonds are bid: XJO is absurdly high for the virus context: Big Iron is beginning to come apart. I’ll take that FMG blowoff day a few weeks ago straight to the pool room: Big Gas free fall: Big Gold is bizarrely unpopulsr: Folks prefer
Via the FT: Copper traders in China, the world’s largest buyer of the metal, have asked miners from Chile to Nigeria to cancel or delay shipments as the deadly coronavirus outbreak hits demand. …“Coronavirus has had a huge impact on copper demand as downstream users [involved in processing raw copper] have stopped acquiring raw material,”
Iron ore prices for 7th February, 2020: Spot up. Paper OK. Steel too. This is the calm before the storm. Or, more accutely, the calm thanks to the storm, Cyclone Damien, in the Pilbara, which has now passed. News via Platts: China’s finished steel consumption in February could be up to 43 million mt lower
Iron ore prices for February 6, 2020: Spot and paper jumped on the tariff cuts but that won’t last. Coking coal is running on feared Chinese supply disruptions. I’m not sure why. Much of Chiense volumes are in the north west which is relatively virus clear. It’s n0t as if trains carry the virus, either.
Iron ore prices for February 6, 2020: Spot down. Paper down. Steel and coking coal up. There are concerns about coke as process plants shut down. Why that would lift coking coal I have no idea. It’s piling up. Via Platts: The outlook for iron ore is negative with steel demand seen weak due to
Via The Australian: “LNG demand has fallen off a cliff since January. An LNG trader just told me Chinese demand has ‘disappeared’, and buyers will be looking at all options.” The move could prove a major risk for Australia’s LNG export industry, which supplied 46 per cent of Chinese LNG in the 2019 financial year,
Iron ore charts for February 4, 2020: A snap back after yesterday is not a surprise. But all questions about demand and supply remain open and tilted bearish, via Mysteel: Tens of thousands of people in China alone are fighting against the virus and no one knows for sure how long the battle will last.
Iron ore prices for Febraury 3, 2020. A day to remember: That’s the largest one day fall in spot I have ever seen. Paper was limit down all day. Overnight trade is suspended. Steel was crushed. Trying to pick price points right now is useless. All I can say is that it appears the virus
Iron ore prices for January 31, 2020 fell again on SGX with 12 months waps down to $73.01: Platts is assessing iron ore spot at $82.55 as of Friday so Dalian and Tianjin spot have a long way to fall at the open today. As well, the Baltic Dry capesize index is now negative for
Via Reuters: The capesize component of the Baltic sea freight index plunged to an all-time low on Thursday, hurt by high fuel costs owed to new shipping regulations and a seasonal slowdown worsened by a coronavirus outbreak. * The Baltic index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels to ferry dry bulk commodities,
SGX 12 month swaps were up a little yesterday to $74.37: It’s all still guesswork on how much damage is being done to the ferrous complex. Traders have a crack at FMB: Steel Market participants expect the fallout from the virus to have an effect on steel markets for the foreseeable future. “Its logical assumption
Via CNBC comes the nightmare scenario: With 60% of China’s population now in urban areas, compared to 60% rural in 2003, and passenger journeys by air increasing to 660 million from 80 million, he suggested that the cost of shutting down huge cities had not been properly priced in. …“A huge tranche of the urban
Via Shanghai Metals Market: Downstream producers of the nonferrous metal industry in China have announced to postpone their resumption after the Chinese New Year as the government extended the seven-day CNY holiday due to the novel coronavirus outbreak. Most smelters, however, continue to produce during the holiday, and logistics and warehousing enterprises keep most of
Last week I noted some of the craziest equity price action I can recall in FMG as it soared while the coronvirus crisis mushroomed. Now the blowoff is over: Today’s production report shows where the enthusiasm was coming from: That’s a cool $8bn in gross profit. Trading on a rough forward P/E of 6x. Problem
SGX twelve month swaps keep on falling, down to $72.57 yesterday: Other news is more price supportive, via Platts: Market sources said they had heard of two rail disruptions in southern Brazil due to heavy rainfall, which could further disrupt exports. A company source from Vale, however, could not confirm the news. “The company will
SGX that is. Hammered again yesterday to $73.64: Coronavirus damage estimates are mounting, via Platts: “The concentration of the virus in China, the strong growth of Chinese steel production/exports since 2003 are likely create a demand vacuum across the region,” Jefferies’ Australia-based analysts Simon Thackray and Abraham Akra said in a note. “We believe, inventories
Oh dear, at Reuters: Tangshan, China’s largest steelmaking city in northern Hebei province, announced on Tuesday morning that it is suspending all public transit within the city in an effort to prevent the further spread of the new coronavirus. Hebei province produces some 300mt of steel per annum, a lot of it in Tangshan. It
