Commodities

0

Daily iron ore price update (searing)

Iron ore price charts for August 21, 2017: Tianjin benchmark poured it on, up $3 to $78.10. Paper lifted overnight. Coking coal is having more trouble post-futures limits. Reuters has more: The Dalian Commodities Exchange on Friday said it will limit the daily purchases and sales of contracts for delivery in January and February to

1

When will coking coal roll?

Via Macquarie:  Spot HCC prices have increased by a further ~$19/t to $195/t since our last update on July 27, as Chinese mills restocked coking coal tapping into a tight seaborne market. Seaborne prices have spiked, but with the physical arb between domestic and seaborne prices now largely closed and steel prices topping out,

6

Fortescue turns cash pump

The remarkable turnaround is now complete: That’s a huge payout ratio, turning the stock into a cash pump if the iron ore price holds up. Of course it won’t, but with gearing so thoroughly reduced it can ride out the volatility by borrowing at the troughs to support the dividend. It should make the stock

1

Chinese steel demand set to fall

Via Macquarie:  China’s latest macro-release this week gave an ambiguous picture on the health of the economy. Conflicting signals from June and July numbers, between macro and micro data, and with respect to liquidity vs money supply are just some of the issues. We see the property market slowing in 2H but FAI picking

3

What’s driving the coking coal rebound?

Back in saddle after this morning’s dummy spit, Credit Suisse has some of the finer detail driving the coking coal rebound: China struggling to meet demand China demand is stronger than anticipated due to solid steel production, which is probably enhanced by the closure of induction furnaces and their replacement with blast furnace steel. Against

3

Daily iron ore price update (down)

Iron ore price charts for August 15, 2017: Tianjin benchmark dropped $2 to $72.30. Paper lifted a little overnight. What coking coal is doing at $200 I have no idea. It has no Chinese policy support and supply is gushing all over. I still see the top here. So does Capital Economics: • The price

1

Daily iron ore price update (top)

Iron ore charts for August 14, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was unchanged at $74.30 though I suspect that should read “unupdated” given big falls in steel and iron ore futures. I still think we’re at the top here. Everything is inflated, demand is fading, stocks are high. There’s no mileage in bidding prices up. The question

2

China rings bell at top for iron ore and steel

Via Reuters: Chinese iron ore futures dropped more than 2 percent on Monday, adding to the previous session’s steep losses, as steel prices extended declines after the Shanghai exchange increased transaction fees to fight speculative trading. The higher fees followed a rally in rebar futures last week to their highest since 2013 amid strong volumes,

3

Will FMG’s iron ore discounting ever end?

Via Macquarie: Iron ore update: restocking, skewed demand & cyclically wide discounts  Increasing optimism towards 2H17 steel demand, together with talk of further steel capacity cuts, has prompted Chinese mills to restock iron ore, driving the spot benchmark price to over $75/t in August, up by ~$22/t from the lows of $53/t touched on

0

Waiting for OPEC

by Chris Becker The two day OPEC meeting has come and gone with nary an impact on the oil price with the WTI contract remaining relatively stable overnight just below $50USD per barrel and Brent crude steady just above $52 per barrel. Oil has been stable for over a week after a bear market rally that saw

13

Waning Indian coal demand should doom Adani

By Leith van Onselen The justification behind the proposed $1 billion concessional loan from Australian taxpayers to Adani to build the Carmichael coal project has taken another hit today with reports that India’s appetite for coal is waning. From The Australian: In the last two years, coal consumption has slowed to its lowest level in