Iron ore price charts for August 21, 2017: Tianjin benchmark poured it on, up $3 to $78.10. Paper lifted overnight. Coking coal is having more trouble post-futures limits. Reuters has more: The Dalian Commodities Exchange on Friday said it will limit the daily purchases and sales of contracts for delivery in January and February to
Banana Man is once gain in control in China: Big Iron is loving it with FMG up 7%: Big Gas is also up with oil: Big Gold is stable. I remain a seller on the bold hope that the Trump Administration is at the lows (for now): Big Bubble is getting caned, especially Terror Bank
Via Macquarie: Spot HCC prices have increased by a further ~$19/t to $195/t since our last update on July 27, as Chinese mills restocked coking coal tapping into a tight seaborne market. Seaborne prices have spiked, but with the physical arb between domestic and seaborne prices now largely closed and steel prices topping out,
The remarkable turnaround is now complete: That’s a huge payout ratio, turning the stock into a cash pump if the iron ore price holds up. Of course it won’t, but with gearing so thoroughly reduced it can ride out the volatility by borrowing at the troughs to support the dividend. It should make the stock
Iron ore price charts for August 18, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 60 cents to $75.10. Paper soared. Coking coal was stable. Thermal is in heaven. Chinese iron ore port stocks fell 1.8mt to 135.2mt. Do we have another bulk commodity shortage? Chinese steel mill stocks have been rising as port stocks fall so this
Dalian has tried but largely failed to blow off again today: Big Iron is down: Big Gas too. ORG is showing promise, and why wouldn’t it, so long as you don’t mind stealing from pensioners: Big Gold is mixed and I’m still a seller here. North Korea is a non issue and the ECB is
Via Macquarie: China’s latest macro-release this week gave an ambiguous picture on the health of the economy. Conflicting signals from June and July numbers, between macro and micro data, and with respect to liquidity vs money supply are just some of the issues. We see the property market slowing in 2H but FAI picking
Iron ore price charts for August 17: Tianjin benchmark rocked nearly 6% to $75.70. Paper calmed overnight. Steel lagged. Coals are pouring it on. This is a terms of trade bonanza for Australia right now.
DXY held small gains last night: The Aussie fell against DMs: And was mixed against EMs: Gold signaled more risk for USD weakness: Brent held on: Base metals unwound the hysteria a little: EM stocks took a hit: US high yield did too. EM was better: US yields fell sharply: Europe a little less: Stocks
The commodity pain trade is roaring upwards today with iron ore off the hook up 6%: Big Iron is pretty circumspect about it: Big Gas is weak, notably so when one reads all of the positive guff coming from brokers: Big Gold is hot as it signals more USD weakness. I am a seller here
Back in saddle after this morning’s dummy spit, Credit Suisse has some of the finer detail driving the coking coal rebound: China struggling to meet demand China demand is stronger than anticipated due to solid steel production, which is probably enhanced by the closure of induction furnaces and their replacement with blast furnace steel. Against
Iron ore price charts for August 16, 2017: Tianjin spot fell 60 cents to $71.70. Paper went berserk overnight. Steel was sinking but I know not what it will do today. The two coals have ceased to make sense to me. Today I’m wondering if I should close this column. I pride myself on having
The DXY reversed last night as Fed minutes came in dovish: The Aussie dollar roared: But fell against other EMs: Gold took off: Brent fell: But base metals went nuts (as did iron ore): Big miners followed: And EM stocks: High yield firmed: US yields fell: European too: European stocks bounced, US a little: DXY
DXY poured it on last night: Whether that is a double bottom I know not but the post-2014 support level has held. AUD was weak against USD and EUR: But strong against other EMs: Gold got hosed: Brent held: Base metals were mixed: Big miners weak: EM stocks held on: EM high yield looks to
Iron ore price charts for August 15, 2017: Tianjin benchmark dropped $2 to $72.30. Paper lifted a little overnight. What coking coal is doing at $200 I have no idea. It has no Chinese policy support and supply is gushing all over. I still see the top here. So does Capital Economics: • The price
From Australia’s worst company, STO: That’s nearly $3bn in write downs on GLNG now. It only owns 30% of the great $18.5bn elephantine failure so over half of the carrying value is now gone. Worry not, the rest will disappear in due course as those oil forecast are never met. As it throws loss-making gas
Iron ore charts for August 14, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was unchanged at $74.30 though I suspect that should read “unupdated” given big falls in steel and iron ore futures. I still think we’re at the top here. Everything is inflated, demand is fading, stocks are high. There’s no mileage in bidding prices up. The question
DXY rebounded with risk overnight: The Aussie was weak against both majors: It was also weak against other EMs: Gold fell: The Brent short squeeze ended with a bang: Base metals rose: Big miners too: EM stocks bounced: High yield too: US yields rose but the curve flattened: European spreads tightened: And stocks launched: The
Via Reuters: Chinese iron ore futures dropped more than 2 percent on Monday, adding to the previous session’s steep losses, as steel prices extended declines after the Shanghai exchange increased transaction fees to fight speculative trading. The higher fees followed a rally in rebar futures last week to their highest since 2013 amid strong volumes,
See ya and wouldn’t wanna be ya. That’s today’s market message for Ian Narev as CBA jumps on his exit: Dalian is eroding as China data heralds the slowdown: Not that Big Iron cares: But it will! Big Gas also looks weakish: Big Gold is flying though: I’m a seller here as the DPRK
Via Macquarie: Iron ore update: restocking, skewed demand & cyclically wide discounts Increasing optimism towards 2H17 steel demand, together with talk of further steel capacity cuts, has prompted Chinese mills to restock iron ore, driving the spot benchmark price to over $75/t in August, up by ~$22/t from the lows of $53/t touched on
Markets have seen some geopolitical volatility over my two week break. DXY has firmed while EUR has softened: The Aussie has been whacked against both: But has done better against other EMs: Gold is shining: Brent has been doing better than I expected with a higher shale breakeven than thought as shalers cut budgets: Base
Iron ore prices for August 11, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was whacked -$1.80 to $74.30. Paper was hit for more overnight. Rebar is in heaven. We’re likely at the top here. Port stocks are from last week but have not risen with the recent iron ore price surge. I’m upgrading my outlook. The key is that
by Chris Becker The two day OPEC meeting has come and gone with nary an impact on the oil price with the WTI contract remaining relatively stable overnight just below $50USD per barrel and Brent crude steady just above $52 per barrel. Oil has been stable for over a week after a bear market rally that saw
By Leith van Onselen The justification behind the proposed $1 billion concessional loan from Australian taxpayers to Adani to build the Carmichael coal project has taken another hit today with reports that India’s appetite for coal is waning. From The Australian: In the last two years, coal consumption has slowed to its lowest level in
