Iron ore is going to tumble too

Iron ore prices for March 18, 2020: Dalian was boosted yesterday by this: Brazilian iron ore producer Vale has shut its Teluk Rubiah iron ore blending terminal in Malaysia until 31 March to comply with a lockdown aimed at slowing the coronavirus outbreak. The Malaysian government has asked Vale to halt operations at the terminal


Daily iron ore price update (yawn)

Iron ore prices for March 9, 2020: Spot down. Paper too. But it’s the calm that impresses. Port stocks eased agin last week to 126.25mt. China is relatively short of iron inventory after last year’s Vale-inspired draw down. That said, I still don’t get why steel prices aren’t crashing amid the glut. Still lot’s of


Trade surplus holds on booming iron ore exports

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released trade data for the month of January, with Australia’s trade surplus falling by around $150 million to $5.2 billion: The next chart shows that Australia’s trade surplus is still running at strong levels: In January, both exports (credits) and imports (debits) fell: In seasonally adjusted terms, goods


Daily iron ore price update (running on empty)

Iron ore prices for Febraury 29, 2020: The miracle price boomlet goes on. Mills are restocking like zombies, via Bloomie: The collapse in economic activity amid China’s unprecedented measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak means there are few buyers of steel, which has sent prices tumbling and put margins under intense pressure. However it’s difficult


UBS raises iron ore price outlook

Coronavirus leads to GDP downgrades The outbreak of the coronavirus has forced downward revisions to our GDP forecasts from our (US, China, & Global) economists (2020e GDP growth -20bp to 2.9%). The downgrades have been most severe in 1) China & 2) Q1 2020. While uncertainty over the severity and duration of the outbreak remains,


Fortescue mines money

Here it is. El Dorado: The key, of course, is the realised price. Thanks Vale! At these kinds of prices, FMG is literally printing money. Roughly $7bn of it over the full year delivering a trailing P/E of just 5x. But is it sustainable? At 2019 prices, the profit is slashed in half and the


Oil is buggered

The one commodity market that is behaving rationally about global growth right now is oil. The world is swimming in the stuff despite oodles sitting on the sidelines. Chinese demand is down 4mb/d. There has been some offset in supply thanks to Libyan troubles removing 1mb/d but nobody there has much incentive to keep the