Commodities

0

Daily iron ore price update (Brazil hiccup)

Texture from Reuters: “As (China’s) winter production control is less severe than last year and steel demand remains solid due to government’s support policies, we expect the steel prices to rise further, underpinning further recovery in iron ore and coking coal prices,” said Helen Lau, metals and mining analyst at Argonaut Securities. Meh. This is

3

Australia’s terms-of-trade rose in Q3

Within today’s dump of balance of payments data that feeds into tomorrow’s September quarter national accounts release was the important news that Australia’s terms-of-trade rose another 0.4% in seasonally adjusted terms and by 1.2% in trends terms: Over the year, the terms-of-trade rose by 7.8% in seasonally adjusted terms and by 8.0% in trend terms.

5

UBS: China’s Pilbara killer a “material risk”

Via the FT comes the Australian doomsday clock via Simandou: Fadi Wazni, the chairman of SMB-Winning, the consortium, said it was already “advancing” discussions with partners interested in backing its ambitious plan to build a 110m-tonne-a-year iron ore mine in the west African country at an estimated cost of $15bn. These include China Railway Construction

0

Daily iron ore price update (Vale tremors again)

Texture via Reuters: China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on Saturday pointed to an unexpected improvement in its manufacturing sector in November, as demand picked up on Beijing’s stimulus measures. Another private business survey released on Monday also showed total new orders and factory production remained at buoyant levels last month, expanding at the

4

Destroyed gas market dumps LNG imports

It just keeps getting worse for Autralian gas users. Via Domain: Global energy giant ExxonMobil has scrapped plans to build a gas import terminal on the Victorian coast, deepening fears for large energy users about rising costs and a looming supply shortfall facing southern states. …ExxonMobil said it had undertaken an “extensive study” to determine

7

Global steel output tumble deepens

Via World Steel: World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 151.5 million tonnes (Mt) in October 2019, a 2.8% decrease compared to October 2018. China’s crude steel production for October 2019 was 81.5 Mt, a decrease of 0.6% compared to October 2018. India produced 9.1 Mt

0

Daily iron ore price update (much ado)

Texture from Platts: An iron ore trader in China’s Shandong province expects steel mill margins to increase further before the country’s Lunar New Year holiday which starts on January 25. Restocking of iron ore before the coldest winter months and ahead of the Lunar New Year usually supports iron ore prices, he said. But steelmakers

16

China’s Pilbara killer scheduled for 2025

Just in time for China going ex-growth, via Platts: Chinese-backed mining, metals and logistics consortium SMB-Winning is seeking equity partners to participate inthe development of Guinea’s Simandou Blocks 1&2 iron ore deposit, Societe Miniere de Boke chairman Fadi Wazni said. It plans to produce 60 million mt/year of high grade ore in a first phase

2

Daily iron ore price update (hostage)

Texture from Reuters: Reuters, citing trade experts and people close to the White House, reported that completion of the “phase one” trade deal could slide into next year, while Bloomberg quoted Chinese Vice Premier Liu He as saying he was “confused” about U.S. demands, but was confident that an agreement could be reached. Everything is

13

China wins right to develop African Pilbara killer

Via the FT: A Chinese-backed joint venture has secured the rights to develop Simandou, one of the world’s biggest untapped deposits of steelmaking ingredient iron ore. The award to the SMB-Winning consortium, whose investors include Chinese aluminium producer Shandong Weiqiao and the Yantaï Port Group, brings the development of a mine a step closer. Simandou

0

Daily iron ore price update (Hedland)

Texture via Reuters: Benchmark Dalian iron ore futures jumped in morning trade on Wednesday, extending gains for a second session, after China’s Premier Li Keqiang again vowed to ensure that key economic goals for this year are achieved. China should keep macro policies stable, improve the use of local government special bonds and strengthen support

1

More reasons to be bearish iron ore

Via GLJ research: Iron Ore Prices Have Been Getting Battered Lately, at a Time When Seasonal and Cyclical Factors Suggest Prices Should Be Seeing Some Support; but, Given an Array of Company Production Updates + Trends in Seaborne Imports + Structural Changes in Chinese Steel Production, We Believe we Understand Why Prices Are “Bucking the