Iron ore prices for October 15, 2018: Spot eased. Paper fell more. Steel is up again. I still see the complex falling through the end of the year and into Q1 before a solid 2019.
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Daily iron ore price update (flame out)
Primary Section
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Can coal save house prices?
You wouldn’t know it from reading the MSM but Australia is in the middle of its second largest coal boom in history: The causes are many: China rationalisation and stimulus, supply side accidents etc. Both will ease from here most likely but not crash. And that means this, via the AFR: The federal government could
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Daily iron ore price update (all good)
Iron ore prices for October 12, 2018: Spot was up. Paper and steel firm. Rebar inventories are absolutely fine, still up one million tonnes on last year: As production remains mad, via CISA for late September output at 1.98mt: Friday’s trade data was also very much in control with steel exports leveling out around 6mt.
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Daily iron ore price update (bullet proof)
Iron ore prices for October 11, 2018: Spot was down. Paper and steel firm. This market is bullet proof at the moment, supported by coking coal supply disruptions into Chinese stimulus. Fundamentals are not very good for demand over the next six months and that will dawn at some point but for now it’s all
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Daily iron ore price update (off to the races)
Iron ore prices for October 10, 2018: Spot up strongly again. Paper stalled overnight. Steel flat. The story remains coking coal, via Reuters: China’s Dalian coke futures jumped more than 4 percent on Wednesday, as investors worried about tight supplies after the major coal mining province of Shanxi vowed to reduce annual coke output. The
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Daily iron ore price update (breakout!)
Iron ore prices for October 9, 2018: Spot jumped. Paper up more. Steel firm. Rebar inventories jumped 9% over the Golden Week. I can’t get excited. There’s plenty of steel, tipping towards too much. Iron ore at this price is a flood. Coking coal is the only thing holding the complex up. I still can’t
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Daily iron ore price update (coal rocket)
Iron ore prices for October 8, 2018: Spot down a touch but paper is flying. Steel came back firm. Conditions are fading in the steel market with the steel PMI at 52. But coking coal is the story now. Chinese stimulus and supply disruptions have it running mad again. The key is this: On Friday
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Macquarie: EMs still in the gun
Via the excellent Viktor Schvets at Macquarie: EMs in the crosshairs: Between war games, fake news and bonds From military exercises to trade wars, the fury is intensifying. At the same time, global liquidity is compressing while rates are rising. Growing uncertainty, contracting liquidity & rising cost of capital will continue to place non-US assets
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Commodities lifts Australia’s trade surplus
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released trade data for the month of August, with Australia’s trade surplus rising to $1,604 million in August from $1,548 million in July: Over the August quarter, Australia recorded a trade surplus of $5,271 million: In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose by $185 million
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Commodity price index suggests lower terms-of-trade
By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for September, which decreased 0.1% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – but rose by 2.0% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for September indicate that the index decreased by 0.1 per cent (on a monthly average
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Son of BREE gets commodity prices right (finally)
The Office of the Chief Economist has done a better job than I over the past year on commodity prices. Some might say that this is the phenomenon of the “stopped clock” but today we see it again providing sober analysis in its outlook, via The Guardian: The value of Australia’s coal exports is forecast
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Daily iron ore price update (Golden Week)
Iron ore prices for September 28, 2018: Markets are closed this week in China but steel is likely to see more pressure next week: China’s environment ministry issued a stern warning on Saturday to companies across heavy industry not to flout the nation’s tough emission rules — a move seen as quashing speculation that the
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Daily iron ore price update (destocking)
Iron ore price charts for September 27, 2018: Spot firmed but paper was hit hard overnight. Steel is fine. Iron ore port stocks fell again last week to 149.1mt. It’s very unusual to see this destocking but prices rising. It seems to me that the latter will have to stop and reverse.
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Daily iron ore price update (a change of seasons)
Iron ore prices for September 26, 2018: Everything is pretty much at equilibrium for now. Normally we would already be into seasonal weakness: But Reuters captures what has happened, I think: After the holidays, steel prices should recover as China starts imposing production curbs in the northern region to fight smog during winter, with top-steel
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Daily iron ore price update (steely boom)
Spot eased. Paper firmed overnight. Steel is soft but very expensive. CISA output rocketed in early September nearly 4%. It will be interesting to see inventories going forward. This could be demand brought forward for shutdowns. Steel growth worldwide is falling fast now: World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the
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Daily iron ore price update (odd man out)
Iron ore prices for September 21, 2018: Spot down. Everything else stable. China is closed today. Still see prices falling to year-end to low-$60s then a stable year for 2019 with expanding stimulus in China and the US.
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Daily iron ore price update (already priced)
Spot flat. Paper flat. Steel flat. Chinese stimulus is already priced. In news, Vale wants more, via Reuters: Peter Poppinga, executive director at Vale, said at an industry conference in China that the world’s largest iron ore miner was studying expanding its S11D project in the Amazonian state of Para, even though it was still
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Daily iron ore price update (here it comes)
Iron ore prices for September 19, 2018: Spot down. Paper more. Steel up. Here it comes, via Reuters: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the top state planner in the country, said in a news briefing on Tuesday that China would ramp up investment in infrastructure, as well as in agriculture, poverty alleviation and
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Daily iron ore price update (meh)
Iron ore prices for September 18, 2018: No change. Down into Q4.
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Daily iron ore price update (firm)
Iron ore prices for September 17, 2018: Everything stable. Down into Q4.
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Daily iron ore price update (stimulus!)
Iron ore price charts for September 14, 2018: Spot firmed and paper added more. Steel was firm. Rebar inventories are fine at 4.33mt well above last year. The ferrous market is now pricing for the property boom that has been unleashed with more infrastructure to come. Given inventories of everything are already so high I
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Daily iron ore price update (new highs)
Iron ore prices for September 13, 2018: There you go. New highs contrary to my best guess. Paper was firm overnight as well. Steel was soft yesterday. I still say we’ll sink through Q4 but these political cross-currents make it more a guess than a forecast. Given we’ll be falling from a higher point we
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Daily iron ore price update (miracle trade)
Iron ore prices for September 12, 2018: Spot down. Paper was smashed yesterday but flew overnight on the trade news. Steel will likely recover today. Chinese credit showed a flicker of life in August but not enough to change things: No change. Down into Q4.
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Should Australia buy Origin’s stake in the gas cartel?
Origin (ORG) wants out of the gas cartel. And who could blame it? There’s a war brewing between the cartel and various Australian governments and it will not be good for shareholders. Via The Australian: Origin Energy is believed to be embarking on a strategic review of its upstream assets worth at least $8 billion
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Steel pulverised as China mulls flexible shutdowns
Via Reuters: Prices of steel and its raw materials fell sharply in China for a second session on Wednesday, hitting multi-week lows, as more investors liquidated positions with oversupply risks rising as Beijing mulls a flexible implementation of its output curbs. China is considering allowing its northern provinces to decide individual output cuts by heavy
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S&P warns on iron ore outlook
Via S&P: Our price assumptions for iron ore are unchanged. In our view, favorable steel producer margins and supply side reform in China should underpin steady demand for iron ore this year. This demand, together with disciplined new iron ore supply from major players, should support a relatively stable iron ore price for the rest
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The gas cartel is a direct threat to national security
Via The Australian: Gas prices on Australia’s east coast are set to surge by up to 70 per cent over the next decade with the southern states forced to rely on LNG imports to get through peak demand in winter, consultancy Wood Mackenzie has warned. Prices for gas could surge to between $14.30 and $15.90
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Daily iron ore price update (steel smash)
Iron ore price charts for September 11, 2018: Spot eased. Paper down overnight. Steel futures got mashed as authorities mull different supply curtailments which are largely irrelevant anyway. Down into Q4.
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Daily iron ore price update (pin head)
Iron ore prices for September 10, 2018: Spot down. Paper down. Steel up. CISA production lifted a little in late August but remains in a down trend. Prices to weaken into Q4.
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Daily iron ore price update (hopes)
Iron ore price for September 7, 2019: Spot unchanged. Paper firm. Steel firm. Rebar inventories fell a little last week but remain fine. It’s clear that markets are hanging desperately to the notion of Chinese stimulus. Forgotten is that demand must slow first. Down into Q4.