The ferrous complex was weak on March 22, 2022: Herein is the truth of the underlying demand for steel inputs from World Steel: This is below 2020 output but roughly 5mt above 2019 though still falling away. In both years, iron ore was trading around $90. In 2021, crude steel output was roughly 100mt
The ferrous complex stalled on March 21, 2022: Not much to add today. Still trading in line with global commodity sentiment despite the rapidly weakening Chinese economy.
The ferrous complex was up and away on March 18, 2021: Steel fundamentals absolutely stink. Demand is terrible: Supply is awful: But none of that matters. Reflexivity is the trade and iron ore goes up (and down) so long as wider commods do.
A side effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the jump in oil and gas prices. The result is basically a global Putin carbon tax. Albeit with the proceeds going to Russia and OPEC rather than to national governments. When you add the re-realisation of commodity supply chain instability, there is now an increasing
The best of the Aitken boys with good stuff today: The conflict-induced energy shock and a reshaping of a global geopolitical world order would benefit Australia, if the nation can effectively navigate the energy transition. That’s the view of London-based financial markets’ consultant James Aitken who believes countries with a reliable supply of national resources
The ferrous complex traded in line with the broader commodity rebound on March 17, 2022: Where are seeing the impact of the Ukraine invasion play out now. Russian steel prices have cratered: While neighbouring producer prices have surged to fill the export gap: Inputs are crazy: But the relative abundance of iron ore is still
The ferrous complex was hammered again on March 15, 2022: As expected, we are trading in line with broader commodity sentiment. Some charts from Morgan Stanley: All pretty normal stuff. We should be trading well below $100 but it’s in the lap of the Fed when we get there now.
The ferrous complex was hammered on March 14, 2022: Not much to say, really. China is going into a genuine recession as the property crash, OMICRON, energy shock, and external demand weakness combine. Iron ore should be at $50 and falling but is now beholden to the global commodity hysteria. It will break in due
The ferrous complex was down on Friday February 11, 2022: Mysteel indexes are still weak: The big news is this: Guinea’s ruling junta has ordered the cessation of all activities at the massive Simandou iron ore deposit owned by Rio Tinto and a Chinese-backed consortium, saying it was seeking clarification of how Guinea’s interests will
The ferrous complex was down on March 10, 2022: The latest wild market movements are in coking coal which is trading at the ludicrous price of $635! Russia exports some 38mt of coking coal, more than 10% of the global export market so this move has some justification. Surely Chinese steel mills will charge towards
I still don’t buy the whole “underinvestment” theme. Most of the major bulks and metals that I track are in fundamental oversupply. Supply was temporarily hit by COVID and excess demand in goods. But that is all a by-the-by now. Two other factors have swamped this context. Reflexivity is one and the Russian embargo is
The ferrous complex was eerily calm on March 8, 2022: CISA data for late February showed a big surge in post-Olympics steel output: I have my doubts it will continue given every other indicator for demand is weak. We also got iron ore import demand for January and February which was down a little year-on-year
FTAlphaville with the note. — The news around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is moving fast. To the extent that almost any article that one starts becomes horribly out of date by the time it’s finished. But one thing that can’t be denied is the volatility in commodity prices at the moment. This Monday morning, Brent
The ferrous complex has joined the global commodity panic with gusto now: I am not going to pretend that I have any clue where the price goes from here. Fundamentals are still terrible with Chinese housing sales collapsed: There will be fiscal support in H1 but it will not be greater than 2021 overall. Mizhuo:
JPM first: While energy is carved out from the sanctions package, this week it became clear that Russian oil is being ostracized. As of today, 66% of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers. PresidentBidenisfacingpressurefromlawmakersinbothpartiestocompletely cut off US imports of Russian oil and gas. In Europe,the conflict is leading to are think of European energy
The ferrous complex followed all dirt higher on March 3, 2022: The proximate cause: China’s top government officials have issued orders to prioritize energy and commodities supply security, sparked by concerns over disruptions stemming from the Ukraine-Russia war. Government agencies, including the country’s top economic planning body — the National Development & Reform Commission —
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Index of Commodity Prices for the month of February. Over the month of February, commodity prices fell by 2.6% in currency-weighted SDR terms, which followed the 6.9% rise in January. Over the February quarter, the commodity price index rose by 3.4% in SDR terms, whereas they were
The ferrous complex blasted higher again on March 1, 2022: This has nothing to do with anything other than a global commodity blowoff of unknown duration. Russian and Ukrainian steel and iron ore output largely goes to itself or China and will keep doing so. Meanwhile, Chinese demand remains terrible. The Steel PMI makes the
I have tried to talk some sense into them but Wall Street will have its way. Commodities were already crazy before Russian bombs starting falling. Now they are entering a blowoff that will take down the global economy via demand destruction before long. Some charts: Goldman has led the charge and is now warning of
The media and research reports are full of bull about a Chinese construction recovery that is just not happening. Finally, yesterday, Bloomie broke the spell: A widely-anticipated push by China’s government to boost construction in order to stabilize growth in the world’s second-largest economy has yet to materialize, a blow to hopes that Chinese stimulus
The ferrous complex firmed on February 28, 2022: Heres’ the narrative: On the Singapore Exchange, iron ore’s most-active April contract SZZFJ2 rose as much as 3.2% to $141.05 a tonne. “Any prolonged military campaign will severely impact annual iron ore exports totaling almost 70 million tonnes from Russia and Ukraine, eventually tightening the global balance,”
The ferrous complex was volatile on Friday February 25: Prices crashed after this: China will limit the price of coal in its three biggest mining regions as it adds yet another layer of controls to stop the market from overheating. The “reasonable range” for benchmark thermal coal at the mine head in Shanxi province has
This is a dull comment: That’s reason to be highly skeptical that Beijing’s plans to rein in the wild swings in the iron ore market will succeed. The government is developing a state-backed platform to coordinate all Chinese purchases of the steelmaking material, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News this week. In theory, that
The ferrous complex was moderately shocked by Ukraine on February 24, 2022: Ukraine exported 47mt of iron ore in 2020 so it presents a moderate downwards supply risk to global supply. That said, most of the activity is in central Ukraine, away from the most contested areas in a martial sense. That said, the Dneiper
The ferrous complex is fighting a pointless battle to stay alive: Steel output was weak during the first 10 days of February. This is more than Olympics: Port inventories keep surging: And the NDRC is on the warpath: Chinese authorities will prevent “excessive hoarding” of iron ore and guide port firms to ensure that traders
