Iron ore prices for February 11, 2018: Spot did its dash and paper flamed out overnight. Chinese steel production has started the year in decent shape. Who knows when the price spike will be over? The best way to think about it is temporary, via Westpac: Vale disaster boosts the spot price of iron ore
Iron ore prices for February 8, 2019: Spot to the moon. Paper too. Chinese steel trade resumes today. Expect price fireworks over the next few months. Then just as spectacular a crash as the Vale dust clears. The bulk commodity rocket has all but wiped out Chinese steel mill margins and the moment clarity is
Via UBS today: Court orders closure 30mtpa Brucutu mine; this was not expected by Vale Yesterday a Brazilian court ordered Vale to halt activity at 8 tailings dams, including 3 built using the “upstream” method & 5 “downstream” dams ( news); as a result of this Vale has stopped production at its 30mtpa Brucutu mine
Via CNBC: Exxon Mobil and Qatar Petroleum on Tuesday announced a final decision to finance a $10 billion-plus project to export liquefied natural gas from the Texas Gulf Coast. The decision moves forward the latest export terminal fueling growing shipments of U.S. LNG, or natural gas cooled to liquid form, for overseas travel. The Department
Thank goodness, via the AFR: Credit Suisse energy analyst Saul Kavonic said that despite the crowd of proposals, none may get a green light this year. “I remain sceptical of an LNG import terminal achieving FID [final investment decision] this year due to poor appetite by industrial buyers, social licence challenges, and the risk posed
Via The Australian: China has restricted imports of Australian coking coal at up to a dozen ports in the northeast in a move that may hamper the nation’s biggest export market amid high prices for the raw commodity. Ports in northeast China have been verbally informed that shipments of Australian coal face lengthy custom delays,
Iron ore prices for February 1st, 2019: Spot rose moderately while paper went limit up. Steel is still firming. Reuters quotes an hysterical ANZ: “While the company is proposing to increase production elsewhere, we estimate a net total loss of around 13 mt (million tonnes) in 2019,” ANZ commodity strategists Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari
by Chris Becker Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future direction of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin came back from almost touching $3400USD per coin overnight, but nearly $100 lower than the breakdown price I suggested last week: JPMorgan recently upset the HODL crowd by suggesting the true value of Bitcoin resides around $2800USD, which would
Via the AFR: The fallout from the Brazilian tailings dam disaster took a stunning turn on Wednesday, with the owner of the dam, Vale, signalling it will pull as much as 40 million tonnes out of the market as it races to decommission 19 similar dams. The death toll from the tragedy stands at 84,
by Chris Becker 2019 is not likely to be a stellar year for oil prices, despite the 20% rally since Christmas last year as production ramps up despite “co-ordinated” cuts by OPEC, more shale oil comes online in the US and demand fades as global growth slows. First, on the Saudi’s penchant for saying one
Iron ore prices for January 10, 2018: Nothing burger action again. Port Hedland December shipments rebounded strongly as BHP got its trains running again. But Q4 shipments were down 3% year on year which won’t help Q4 GDP.
Iron ore prices for January 9, 2019: All soft. Bloomie carries some warnings: “The $75 a ton iron ore price is not sustainable for two reasons,” the Goldman analysts said. “First, part of the rally was fueled by mills restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year. Second, supply is set to increase in 2019.” Morgan
Iron ore prices for January 8, 2019: Everything flat. Clyde Russell is bullish now: Commodity markets appear to have delivered their verdict on China’s plans to stimulate its economy, betting that Beijing’s boost to infrastructure spending will work. China’s central bank cut the amount of cash that banks have to hold as reserves for a
Iron ore prices for January 7, 2018: Everything up again, as expected. This is the strongest seasonal period of the year. Rebar inventories have made the turn and Chinese iron ore port stocks are up again too. How far will the restock run is the question? Vertical Group is bearish: Expectations of Seasonal Restock Help
Iron ore prices for January 4, 2019: Everything was up Friday. This is typical seasonal restocking activity. Expect it to run for most of January. Beyond that I am bearish. China has not delivered enough stimulus yet. The steel PMI in December remains quite weak as does the steel price. CISA output for mid-December slumped.
QLD Labor is running interference for Bill Shorten: Indian energy giant Adani will miss its Christmas deadline to begin construction of its controversial $2 billion Carmichael mine after the Palaszczuk Labor government commissioned an independent review into the company’s environmental management plans – a process which is expected to take at least two months. Although Adani Mining
Iron ore prices for December 21, 2018: Spot firmed. Paper fell. Steel bounced on some supply side shutdowns. Coking coal is still bulletproof. In news, Minas Rio is back: Anglo American (AAL.L) said on Friday it was restarting operations at its Minas-Rio iron ore mine in Brazil after months of closure, and had received regulatory
Son of BREE is out with its December quarter commodities outlook and it has not done a bad job with a boom and bust outlook: The individual outlooks are below: Iron and coking coal look good to me. I expect thermal coal to correct faster. The one outstanding price that is a little optimistic is
Iron ore prices for December 20, 2018: Spot up. Paper up. Steel up a little. Classic new year restocking now. It will run through to the end of January. There are still signs of stress under the bonnet, via Argus: Australian iron ore producer Fortescue Metals has narrowed discounts on its major products, as demand
Via the hedge fund Horseman Global: Your fund lost 1.32%. Losses on the long book where not compensated by gains in the short book and currency book. I started working for UBS Private Banking in Sydney on Valentine’s Day 2000. I still remember going to my first morning meeting and being introduced to the model
Iron ore price charts for December 19, 2018: Nothing burger. Look to February for next big move.
Via Platts: Samarco may restart iron ore pellet production activities as early as late 2019, and operate toward an 8 million mt/year rate during 2020, to meet high global pellet demand, the company said. Samarco will continue to use wet processing via floatation of iron ore, and aims to produce the same pellet grades as
Iron ore prices for December 17, 2018: Spot up. Paper down. Steel stalled. Port stocks still falling. It’s normal seasonal strength. Look to February for the next break in prices.
Iron ore prices for December 14, 2018: Spot up. Paper up. Steel up. There’s nothing the iron ore Costanza market likes more than crashing Chinese demand data. That’s how conditioned it is to stimulus these days. My outlook is unchanged. Strength through new year and January then weakness as demand falls away. I don’t think
The world’s second largest economy has a problem. A big problem. Everything is slowing fast except the very thing that is wants to stop: building empty apartments! November data was bad. Industrial production slowed sharply to 5.4% and retail sales did as well to 8.1%. Fixed asset investment held up at 5.9%: Fixed asset investment
Iron ore prices for December 13, 2018: Everything up on seasonal strength. No surprises here. Prices should stay strong until February.
Iron ore prices for December 12, 2018 Spot stable. Paper too. Steel rebounded. Nothing burger. Westpac has some good material on next year: Three factors were behind the recovery in iron ore prices in 2018: 1) the restructuring of the Chinese steel industry and resulting lift in steel prices; 2) declining Chinese ore production due
Via The Australian: Manufacturers and heavy industry may be forced to shift operations overseas or shut down as energy prices soar three times higher than in the US, sparking fears of a fresh crisis for big users, analysis backed by Dow Chemical has warned. Queensland, the home of three LNG export plants, pays more for
Iron ore price charts for December 11, 2018: Spot is treading water. Paper jumped convulsively when it learned that Chinese credit is crashing. Coking coal contracts rolled forward. Steel is weak and getting weaker. Iron ore these days rises long before any actual stimulus meaning that strength is greeted with price rises and weakness with
Iron ore price charts for December 10, 2018: Spot down. Paper stable. Steel is breaking down. Mills margins will stay under pressure and it will hit bulks once past the new year restock.
