Iron ore prices for October 21, 2020: Spot up. Paper up. Really just following broader trends of USD weakness. China’s empties are rebounding: ‘ It looks like sales have been pushed around a lot by stimulus-led discounting waves: But there are still signs of weakness creeping in. Price growth is weak, starts have softened and
Iron ore prices for October 20, 2020: Spot stable. Paper too. Chinese property sales remain questionable: The big news is Vale and it’s not good for prices: Here’s the production resumption timetable: That’s production increases of: 6mtpa more this year. 23mtpa in H1,21. 34mtpa in 2022. 17mtpa in 2023 20mtpa in 2024. 100mt over 2.5
Via Vale today: Vale´s Production Report for the third quarter of 2020 (3Q20) was announced on Monday, October 19th. The company is evolving with its stabilization plan and delivered a strong iron ore production in 3Q20. Nickel and Copper businesses managed to recover productivity for a solid start in 4Q20, after normalizing routine maintenance in
Iron ore prices for October 16, 2020: Chinese empty apartment sales have turned. Let’s see where they go from here: In other news: China-backed consortium SMB-Winning aims to bring blocks 1 and 2 of Guinea’s massive Simandou iron ore deposit into production by 2025, Chairman Fadi Wazni said on Friday. The consortium – which includes
China’s PBOC released new yuan loans for September last night it remains credit pedal to the metal with total social financing at 3.48tr yuan of which 1.9tr was bank lending: The non-bank share has rebound strongly but that is distorted by the inclusion of local government bonds these days: The three month moving average of
Iron ore prices for October 15, 2020: Spot is still under pressure which I expect to continue for now. There was a little easing in the Chinese property sales dump: No change then. Lower yet then higher into new year unless we see this little property shock develop.
Who cares, at the AFR: BHP’s Chinese customers have asked the miner for relief from coal purchase contracts in the wake of Beijing’s move to crack down on foreign coal imports. The requests for deferral come amid uncertainty over whether China is seeking to limit purchases of foreign coal of all origins, or whether Australian
Via Reuters: China is expected to issue new standards for steel scrap at the end of 2020, the official Xinhua news agency reported, in a move that will allow material meeting them to enter the country after a ban on solid waste imports goes into effect. Beijing currently categorises most scrap metal as solid waste,
Iron ore prices for October 14, 2020: Spot down. Paper down more overnight. We’re going lower here. Indeed, I’m starting to wonder if there isn’t a little shock unfolding. Brazil is recovering steadily: More importantly, property sales in China have tanked: A few cities have tightened property curbs for investors in recent months but that
Let me preface this argument by saying that LNG imports are calamitously stupid given all we really need is fixed price gas reservation for our own gas export cartel. That said, without such policy sense, LNG imports are the only sane alternative path. Via the AFR: Prices for gas consumed in Victoria will be on
Iron ore prices for October 13, 2020: Spot troubled. Paper too. We should see more price fall before the year end rally. Steel output remained insane in late September: Iron ore imports as well above 108mt: Steel exports are shite still: So are empty apartment sales: Steel output can stay strong through winter: China’s largest
Iron ore prices for October 12, 2020: Spot down. Paper too. Coking coal is flying on the Aussie bans. Chinese empty apartment sales have fallen off the proverbial: While Brazil is doing OK with the virus: Things are looking considerably less rosy here. If those property sale don’t turn soon then iron ore is going
Via Argus: China has told some of its state-owned steelmakers and power plants to stop importing Australian coals with immediate effect, injecting more uncertainty into its spot markets that had anticipated eased restrictions into 2021. A major northeast China state-owned steel producer received verbal notice of the ban this afternoon, but with few details available.
Daily iron ore price update for October 10, 2020: Spot jumped after Golden Week. Paper too. Port Hedland output has eased as Brazil ramps up. Chinese port stocks are climbing at a goodly pace, now at 122.7mt. I expect them to keep on going all way the to 160mt and possibly higher if Beijing has
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released trade data for the month of August, which registered a sharp fall in Australia’s trade surplus to $2,643 million amid falling exports and rising imports: Key points as follows: The seasonally adjusted balance on goods and services surplus decreased $2,009m to $2,643m in August. Exports of goods and
Still no price action during China’s Golden Week holiday. Chinese empty apartment sales are still fine: But the action is on the supply side. Brazil’s September exports launched to nearly 38mt: As virus numbers fell: Though one wonders if a virus rebound is not imminent with the reopening. Still, the trend in Brazilain supply has
The RBA has released its commodity price index for September, which rose 1.5% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – but fell by 5.8% over the year: Preliminary estimates for September indicate that the index increased by 1.5 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after
Iron ore prices for September 30, 2020: The whole complex launched on the Port Hedland virus scare. A big overreaction unless I’m missing something and the virus has already skipped the boat. Underneath that, the broader signals are still weakening. The Chinese steel PMI was downright poor with new orders a particular concern: With mill
Iron ore prices for September 29, 2020: Spot got a pop from Vale’s issues with more overnight. I remain bearish into October. Signals are softening: No change from me. Bullish into new year and through H1, 2021.
Iron ore prices for September 28, 2020: Spot up. Paper too. Steel is holding. Port stocks popped above 120mt: At the current rate of accumulation, it will take until mid-2021 to get us back to the peaks. If anything, there is a danger that China will want to stockpile even more as relations deteriorate. Property
Via the Office of the Chief Economist: In the June 2020 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) we pointed out that “unlike downturns in previous decades, this downturn was not due to the bursting of excesses built up in the financial system…or in equity markets…. It also differs from the 1970s recessions…which helped contribute to stagflation and
Iron ore prices for September 25, 2020: Spot firmed. Paper too. Still waiting for steel to update. I’m still looking for a downside into $100 range ahead. There are plenty of softening signals: But I still reckon that this correction is largely seasonal in nature. The CCP has no choice but to keep building while
Iron ore prices for September 24, 2020: Spot up. Paper down. Empty apartment sales are still fine: World Steel released its latest: World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 156.2 million tonnes (Mt) in August 2020, a 0.6% increase compared to August 2019. Due to the ongoing difficulties presented by
Iron ore prices for September 23, 2020: Spot down again with more to go. Paper too. Steel has not updated. Steel output remains crazy into mid-September, via CISA: Indeed, steel inventories are huge for this time of year: I remain relatively comfortable with this given steel mills are policy operations at this point. That said,
Via The Fake Left: The draft reads: “Labor supports the responsible development of Australia’s gas reserves, subject to environmental approvals to ensure communities’ concerns are addressed through rigorous science-based processes, including gas from coal seams, shale and tight gas formations.” It says a future Labor government would ensure “gas development is environmentally sustainable, science-based and
Iron ore prices for September 22, 2020: Empty apartment sales have softened: China is struggling big time to lift the consumer as they save their butts off: Which leads only to the conclusion that MOAR empty apartments and MOAR bridges to nowhere are coming. Brazil is slowly doing better with the virus: I still see
Iron ore prices for September 21, 2020: Empty apartment sales are still fine: Not much more to add today except to say that I expect materially more correction yet. $110 at least. $100 is quite possible without breaking seasonal normality. Then the new year rally and peaks for this cycle mid-2021.
Iron ore prices for September 18, 2020: Everything up. CISA early September production easing as it usually does, from amazing levels. I’m still looking for a larger seasonal drawdown of the entire ferrous complex in the weeks ahead. Empty apartment sales are still fine: Vale is still getting buffeted by criticism, via Reuters: Vale SA
I have absolutely no idea why manufacturing is on board with the new Morrison gas policy. All it wants is cheaper gas and power. Morrison will give it neither. Here it is: Gas will help re‑establish a strong economy as part of the Government’s JobMaker plan, making energy affordable for families and businesses and supporting
Via the AFR comes a job well done: Adani Mining chief executive David Boshoff has a clear message for the environmental activists and naysayers who have spent the past decade rallying against the $2 billion Carmichael coal mine in Central Queensland – “it’s happening”. Standing on the edge of the first pit being dug at
