Iron ore prices for May 187, 2020: We’ve now got a pretty good restocking pulse going. Some of it is doubtless steel mills looking at Chinese stimulus but the recovery is still slow and halting: The more important driver remains the supply side, in particular Brazil, which is inking into virus hell. Only six weeks
Prices for May 15, 2020: Goldman has a wrap: Goldman Sachs says the iron ore price could retreat to $US70 a tonne as the market moves into surplus in late May-June before rebounding back to $US85 a tonne in the fourth quarter. The broker estimates the iron ore market was in a 20 million tonne
Iron ore prices for May 13, 2020: I see this latest strong price action as a combination of restocking, exaggerated by Brazil worries, and strong seasonality. The last will reverse into June but the former will last as long as the virus threatens supply. Capital Economics high-frequency indexes look better today too: The major pulse
Iron ore prices for May 12, 2020: Chinese credit gave us a bounce yesterday but I am much more concerned about Brazill, via Domain: Faced with overwhelmed hospitals and surging coronavirus deaths, Brazilian state and city governments are lurching forward with mandatory lockdowns against the will of President Jair Bolsonaro, who says job losses are
From Westpac’s excellent Justin Smirk: Coal prices tumbled in April, iron ore was more stable while base metals firmed a little Coal prices have been falling rapidly with the latest spot Qld met coal prices down –39% in the last three months and Newcastle thermal down –21%. As a result we have lowered our near,
Iron ore prices for May 11, 2020: Not much in news but check this out: Suddenly the empty apartments recovery looks to be in trouble. No wonder the PBOC is mulling flood stimulus. More on that later.
So says Grattan: Australia has an historic opportunity to create a multi-billion-dollar, export-focused manufacturing sector based on globally competitive renewable energy. Using Australia’s plentiful wind and solar resources to make energy-intensive ‘green’ commodities could create tens of thousands of jobs in regions that currently employ tens of thousands of coal miners and other ‘carbon workers’
Via the ABC: China has fired its first shot in an increasingly bitter diplomatic row, threatening to slap major tariffs on Australia’s barley exports, that could rip hundreds of millions of dollars from the trade. Relations between Canberra and Beijing have hit a fresh low in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, as Prime Minister
Iron ore prices for May 10, 2020: Spot jumped, I suspect over two days. Steel output is now roughly tracking last year’s output despite the vast inventory overhang. The Brazil risk is rising: Concerns about Brazilian iron ore supply resurfaced among market participants this past week due to expectations that exports of the product would
Rio wants it fixed, at The Australian: Rio Tinto boss Jean Sebastien Jacques says sorting out Australia’s long-term energy policy should be a key plank in the federal government’s plans to bring the national economy back from the coronavirus crisis, saying cheap and reliable power is one of the keys to economic recovery. Speaking to
Iron ore prices for May 7, 2020: Spot didn’t rise but Banana Man is back in Dalian. Why steel is rising is anybody’s guess. The glut remains titanic. Coking coal got a short term boost from the QLD mining explosion. Chinese iron ore imports were pretty good in March: Even over the first quarter they
Iron ore prices for May 7, 2020: Nothing much to crow about there after the holiday. Citi is bearish: Citigroup on Tuesday lowered its forecast for iron ore prices which it expects to hit $70 in May due to softening steel demand that will weigh on prices, it said in a research report. Citi said
The RBA has released its commodity price index for April, which rebounded 1.4% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – but slumped by 8.1% over the year: Preliminary estimates for April indicate that the index increased by 1.4 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after
Here are the charts: Brazil has a similar political set-up to the US vis the virus, with a lunatic president counter-acted by logical states. Yet, clearly, lockdowns have not worked so far. Mining was designated as essential service in late March so has so far been fine. But Vale has is already running on skeleton
Iron ore prices for April 30, 2020: A spontaneous rally following stocks and yesterday’s China PMIs. It is another measure of the hysteria that the PMIs were seen as bullish. They were not. PMI indexes are directional not absolute. With weak growth in all it is a very bad sign for China’s recovery given they
Via SteelOrbis: The drip feed to lower iron ore prices has begun.
Iron ore prices for April 29, 2020: The market still feels weak to me. Coking coal spot is down to $108. Reuters has a conga-line of bears: “We expect iron ore prices to drift lower, not collapse, to a level which is still very profitable for the majors (producers),” said Colin Hamilton, managing director of
Nobody cares right now given a world of depressionary data and limitless stimulus but Australia’s terms of trade are correcting fast. Coking coal spot has fallen back to $117 in recent days. Futures are pointing lower ahead. Thermal coal has been monstered to 2015 lows at $56 as LNG collapses across Asia. Spot prices for
Iron ore prices for April 28, 2020: Everything is trending down to the lows of recent ranges. Coking coal has already broken down completely, via Argus: The spot market remains quiet amid rising coke inventories and cashflow constraints at mills. But with some suppliers eager to shift volumes as prices continue to slide in Asia
Iron ore price charts for April 27, 2020: Spot down but everything was supported a little by falling port inventories: Some argue that these can’t fall much more. History suggests otherwise. Coking coal is breaking, via Argus: Term customers have deferred taking delivery of coal coking from Australian mining firm Stanmore Coal, as the Covid-19
Via Captial Economics: Most noteworthy for Australia is that stalled property sales recovery. Volumes down one quarter is worse than the 2015 bust that crushed bulks. There are offsets in infrastructure with local governments on the move: But infrastructure is less steel intensive that realty. The stimulus is relatively modest in context: Hence rate cuts:
Iron ore prices for April 23, 2020: No change. I expect the range trading to steadily break down ahead as the global economy sinks.
Iron ore prices for April 22, 2020: World Steel is out with the latest month data: World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 147.1 million tonnes (Mt) in March 2020, a 6.0% decrease compared to March 2019. Due to the ongoing difficulties presented by the COVID-19
Iron ore prices for April 21, 2020: China’s weekly steel inventories are still falling at a good clip: But output has risen in recent weeks so let’s see if it slows. Port stocks of iron ore have turned a little up again: Via Reuters: “Steel production cuts outside China are making it even more a
Iron ore prices for April 20, 2020: Spot was strong on Vale cuts. Paper too. Steel is soft and trending down. Is it any wonder when, along with the inventory Everest, output remains at similar levels to last year in CISA data. I still think we trend down from here without added Vale volumes. There’s
Iron ore prices for April 17, 2020: More good news for Aussie producers: Brazilian miner Vale SA on Friday cut its forecast for production of iron ore fines and pellets, copper and nickel in 2020, saying in a securities filing that the new coronavirus outbreak was delaying some facilities from reopening. Vale reduced its forecast for annual production of
Iron ore prices for April 16, 2020: A bit of news to note: Mills are restocked somewhat: Stocks of imported iron ore sintering fines at the 64 Chinese steel mills under Mysteel’s weekly survey swelled to a two-month high of 16.8 million tonnes over April 9-15, as most Chinese steelmakers had urgent replenishment demand amid
Iron ore prices for April 15, 2020: No change. Demand is getting creamed but so is supply. The base case is falling prices but Brazilian output is an upside risk.
Via Westpac: The deep global recession and similar contraction in industrial production represents a significant destruction in demand, while to date supply disruptions have been mixed. The most significant revision has been for crude oil while base metals have weakened further. Iron ore prices remain well supported, for now, but the lift in supply has
Iron ore prices for April 14, 2020: Steel exports jumped in March but it looks very much like an anomaly after two very week months and lagged orders. Expect a crash ahead: Iron ore imports are falling away as steel mills curtail output to destock the steel inventory Everest: There no demand pressure here. Rolling
