Commodities

14

Fortescue breaks support

Here’s the chart: I don’t think I have ever seen a more perfect bearish descending triangle pattern. It’ll need to close here or lower to confirm the break. The target price is anybody’s guess but new lows are quite possible. Weighing today is the 58% iron ore is at $37.44. I reckon it’s headed deep

13

ASX plunges with iron ore

The Australian dollar is still holding around 77 cents: Bonds are bid, especially at the long end: XJO is down the better part of -2%: Dalian has crashed: And Big Iron is going with it. FMG is about to test its $4.50 support. When it breaks look out below: Big Gas is OK but is

4

Iron ore discounts to disappear as it crashes?

So says Liberum: The proposition that there’s a structural shift underway in the iron ore tastes of Chinese steel mills toward the less-polluting varieties is just a myth, according to Liberum Capital Ltd. “As margins fall, lower-grade material becomes more economic and the discount shrinks,” analysts Richard Knights and Ben Davis said in a note. “We

0

Daily iron ore price update (new lows)

Iron ore price for March 20, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 55 cents to $66.80. Paper rebounded overnight. Steel bottomed. Coking coal is doing better. There really is no way to go but down for steel and iron ore given inventories and weakening demand growth. Coking coal is the one last hope for the ferrous complex.

34

Cliffs shuts WA iron ore mine

Had to come: Cleveland-Cliffs will make the last shipment of iron ore from its Koolyanobbing operations near Southern Cross by the end of June with the potential loss of hundreds of jobs. Cliffs formally notified contractors yesterday that it would wind down the 11 million tonne-a-year iron ore business by June 30, which provides work

0

Daily iron ore price update (goodbye)

Iron ore price update for March 19, 2018: Tianjin benchmark was clubbed $2.25 to $67.35. Inconveniently, port stocks rose 600kt last week to hit a new all time high of 159.18mt. Steel has ruptured its steeper uptrend line. Coking coal is doing better. When one considers that grade discounts ($4) and higher shipping costs ($6-8)

5

Oil to crash again?

So says Rystad Energy: “Shale is not dead, shale is reborn and has strong growth potential [even] at $US40 to $US50 oil,” said chief executive Jarand Rystad at the opening of the firm’s Sydney office. “It has the potential to again crush the oil market.” Rystad, one of the few to correctly forecast that US

1

Can China save LNG?

I am yet to meet an oil and gas bear. BofAML is typical: More projects likely to get off the ground this year We view the prospects for the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector as largely positive. We expect a number of final investment decisions (FIDs) this year as we move closer to meeting

6

Daily iron ore price update (dead cat)

Iron ore prices for March 14, 2018: Tianjin benchmark jumped $1.80 to $71.75. Paper eased off overnight. Coking coal the same. Steel was much less excited. Port inventories fell 500kt to 158.6mt last week. Chinese data was good so we got the bounce. It won’t last. Here’s a few charts from Capital Economics: Note the

1

Daily iron ore price update (still weak)

Iron ore prices for March 13, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rebounded 95 cents to $79.95. Steel is still falling. Coking coal too. Pricing still look weak with more downside in the near and medium term. The Trump tariff stuff is accelerating.  Chinese demand appears soft and it’s possible that winter shutdowns actually brought forward demand. We’ll

19

LNG ripping Australia off $90bn in taxes

Via Domainfax: An Oxford University expert says Australia would be $90 billion better off if it adopted European-style resource tax policies and argues the Turnbull government has given up on collecting a meaningful amount of revenue from some of its most valuable resources. In one of a suite of new submissions to a Senate inquiry, Oxford

2

Daily iron ore price update (sell)

Iron ore prices for March 8, 2018:    Tianjin benchmark was splattered $3.20 to $72. Paper burned overnight. Coking coal too. Steel cracked yesterday. And why not? Inventories of everything are crazy. Supply is about to boom for steel. Steel exports are way down at 4.85mt in February, from yesterday: And will struggle to rebound

2

Chinese smog improves…barely

Via UBS: China as a whole: Unhealthy Air Quality continues to the end of February In the last 2 weeks of Feb, data from UBS Evidence Lab shows >50% of provinces registered worse Air Quality Index (AQI) readings y/y even though the comparison should have benefited from less industrial activity with Chinese New Year being