Iron ore price charts for March 28, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 40 cents to $63.05. Paper was stable overnight. Coking coal is catching down. Steel bounced a little. This is not over by a long shot. May is the weakest month on the iron ore calendar. June is almost as bad as mills destock into
Here’s the chart: I don’t think I have ever seen a more perfect bearish descending triangle pattern. It’ll need to close here or lower to confirm the break. The target price is anybody’s guess but new lows are quite possible. Weighing today is the 58% iron ore is at $37.44. I reckon it’s headed deep
Iron ore prices for March 27, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 40 cents to $63.45. Paper tumbled overnight. Steel rebounded yesterday. Not much of a rebound. All charts have glaringly bearish descending triangle patterns. The key chart is Dalian six month futures which is approaching major support in the 400yn range. Any break of that will
Via FMG just now: The chart is now right at the cliff’s edge of the monster descending triangle pattern: It’s a long way down from here. There are broader implications. Where FMG goes, Australia follows. The big iron ore discounts are also raising the net iron ore price for the Budget. By my calculations, it
Iron ore prices for March 26, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell $1 to $63.05. Paper was stable overnight. Steel is tumbling still. Rebar inventories have begun to fall, down 3% to 9.49mt which is normal. No change to outlook. As steel margins falls so will the ferrous inputs. We’re going much lower yet. World Steel released
Via the AFR: The federal government is planning to toughen up on allowable deductions under the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax but is expected to exempt existing projects from the new regime to avoid the creation of sovereign risk. Sources have said the changes, to be announced at or around the May budget, will lead to
Iron ore prices for March 23, 2018: Tianjin benchmark was thrashed -5.4% to $64.05. Paper stabilised overnight but that was before broader markets fell away. Steel is getting hammered. We’ve much lower to go yet. My targets remain 300o yuan for rebar, $50 for iron ore and 1000 yuan for coking coal in the next three
The Australian dollar is still holding around 77 cents: Bonds are bid, especially at the long end: XJO is down the better part of -2%: Dalian has crashed: And Big Iron is going with it. FMG is about to test its $4.50 support. When it breaks look out below: Big Gas is OK but is
Iron ore price for March 22, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 20 cents to $67.70. Steel is breaking down. Coking coal too. CISA early March steel output collapsed 7.2% in an unusually steep post-restock fall. Reuters sums it up nicely: Steel demand typically improves from mid-March in China after a slowdown for the week-long Lunar New
Iron ore prices for March 21, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 55 cents to $67.90. Paper firmed a little overnight. Steel as well yesterday despite the early year rebar restock hitting new highs at 9.79mt. Inventories of everything are now brimming. Just as demand is going to come off. That rebar mountain will begin to draw
So says Liberum: The proposition that there’s a structural shift underway in the iron ore tastes of Chinese steel mills toward the less-polluting varieties is just a myth, according to Liberum Capital Ltd. “As margins fall, lower-grade material becomes more economic and the discount shrinks,” analysts Richard Knights and Ben Davis said in a note. “We
Iron ore price for March 20, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 55 cents to $66.80. Paper rebounded overnight. Steel bottomed. Coking coal is doing better. There really is no way to go but down for steel and iron ore given inventories and weakening demand growth. Coking coal is the one last hope for the ferrous complex.
Had to come: Cleveland-Cliffs will make the last shipment of iron ore from its Koolyanobbing operations near Southern Cross by the end of June with the potential loss of hundreds of jobs. Cliffs formally notified contractors yesterday that it would wind down the 11 million tonne-a-year iron ore business by June 30, which provides work
Iron ore price update for March 19, 2018: Tianjin benchmark was clubbed $2.25 to $67.35. Inconveniently, port stocks rose 600kt last week to hit a new all time high of 159.18mt. Steel has ruptured its steeper uptrend line. Coking coal is doing better. When one considers that grade discounts ($4) and higher shipping costs ($6-8)
So says Rystad Energy: “Shale is not dead, shale is reborn and has strong growth potential [even] at $US40 to $US50 oil,” said chief executive Jarand Rystad at the opening of the firm’s Sydney office. “It has the potential to again crush the oil market.” Rystad, one of the few to correctly forecast that US
I am yet to meet an oil and gas bear. BofAML is typical: More projects likely to get off the ground this year We view the prospects for the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector as largely positive. We expect a number of final investment decisions (FIDs) this year as we move closer to meeting
Iron ore prices for March 16, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell $1.90 to $69.60. Paper fell further overnight. Steel was stable. Coking coal did better. Westpac has a an excellent note out on steel and iron ore: Westpac has revised its near term forecasts for iron ore and met coal, holding them around current levels to
Iron ore prices for March 15, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 25 cents to $71.50. Paper fell overnight. Steel has not updated. CISA steel output for late February surged 4.4% as output restrictions faded, adding to already bloated inventories. Steel prices are going to fall as the glut builds. So are bulks.
Iron ore prices for March 14, 2018: Tianjin benchmark jumped $1.80 to $71.75. Paper eased off overnight. Coking coal the same. Steel was much less excited. Port inventories fell 500kt to 158.6mt last week. Chinese data was good so we got the bounce. It won’t last. Here’s a few charts from Capital Economics: Note the
Iron ore prices for March 13, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rebounded 95 cents to $79.95. Steel is still falling. Coking coal too. Pricing still look weak with more downside in the near and medium term. The Trump tariff stuff is accelerating. Chinese demand appears soft and it’s possible that winter shutdowns actually brought forward demand. We’ll
The WSJ reports: OPEC is breaking down into two camps after more than a year of unity. On one side is Saudi Arabia, which wants oil prices at $70 a barrel or higher, and on the other is Iran, which wants them around $60. The split is driven by differing views over whether $70 a
Via Domainfax: An Oxford University expert says Australia would be $90 billion better off if it adopted European-style resource tax policies and argues the Turnbull government has given up on collecting a meaningful amount of revenue from some of its most valuable resources. In one of a suite of new submissions to a Senate inquiry, Oxford
Iron ore prices for March 12, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell $1.25 to $69. Paper down again overnight. Coking coal following. Steel was stable. We already know that iron ore inventories are at extreme all-time highs in China. Now you can add steel stocks with Steelhome yesterday reporting that traders have now piled up 9.64mt of rebar,
Via the AFR: Shocking new estimates on gas reserves have slashed the volume of gas expected to be recovered from coal seams in Queensland just as a supply deficit looms in the south with the decline of Bass Strait fields. …Queensland’s coal seam gas reserves were written down by 1341 petajoules last year, more than
Iron ore prices for March 9, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell $1.75 to $70.25. Paper held on Friday night as risk took off. Steel is breaking. Coking coal tracking the lot. We’re been triggered a little earlier than usual by the Trump tariffs but this is typical price action moving into Q2. I expect we’ll not
DXY jumped last night: AUD slumped against the USD but was stronger elsewhere: And strong against EMs: Gold was whacked: Oil too: And base metals: Big miners are breaking down: EM stocks held on: As did junk: Treasuries were bought: And bunds: Stocks added gains: The USD appears to have bottomed. New impetus for that
Iron ore prices for March 8, 2018: Tianjin benchmark was splattered $3.20 to $72. Paper burned overnight. Coking coal too. Steel cracked yesterday. And why not? Inventories of everything are crazy. Supply is about to boom for steel. Steel exports are way down at 4.85mt in February, from yesterday: And will struggle to rebound
Via UBS: China as a whole: Unhealthy Air Quality continues to the end of February In the last 2 weeks of Feb, data from UBS Evidence Lab shows >50% of provinces registered worse Air Quality Index (AQI) readings y/y even though the comparison should have benefited from less industrial activity with Chinese New Year being
Iron ore prices for March 7, 2018: Tianjin benchmark rose 20 cents to $75.20. Paper was down more overnight. Steel is holding but Winter cuts end in one week. It should begin to weaken shortly after. Coking coal is still joined at the hip with iron ore. In news, a couple of stories point to
Iron ore prices for March 6, 2018: Tianjin benchmark fell 65 cents to $75. Paper lifted overnight. Coking coal is solid. Steel too. CIAS output for mid-Feb hit 1.8mt which again shows Winter shutdowns have done nothing to dent output. The craziest data point was Chinese port stocks of iron ore which hit an astonishing
