Global markets choke on China

DXY was hammered last night: AUD too against EUR, it held against the plummeting USD: Gold was firm: Brent was whacked by a dovish IEA report: Base metals were hit: Big miners flogged: EM stocks looks worrying like forming a double top: US and EM junk continues to warn: The US curve flattened again: The


Daily iron ore price update (flame out)

Iron ore price charts for November 7, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 40 cents to $62.30. Paper fell overnight. Coking coal too. Steel is stable.  42 port inventories rose 2% last week to 138.6mt. Texture from Reuters: Chinese cities have ordered their steel mills to cut output from this month through March as part of Beijing’s


Daily iron ore price update (Banana Man)

Iron ore price charts for November 6, 2017: Tianjin benchmark surged 5.6% to $62.30. Paper came off overnight. Coking coal is less excited. Steel too. Me as well. This is Banana Man (Chinese retail speculators) at work. I’d fade the rally. Reuters has texture: The war on pollution was partly to blame for third quarter


QLD Labor pretends to shaft Adani

Lordy, some sense: The Queensland government will veto Adani’s application for a $1bn commonwealth loan to build a rail line for its massive Carmichael mine, Annastacia Palaszczuk has said. Palaszczuk said the dramatic move, amid her campaign for re-election, came in response to what she believed was a federal Coalition plan to “smear” her and


What will the Saudi purge do to oil?

Via the FT: Oil traders have a new political risk factor to absorb from Saudi Arabia with the move by the powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to detain some of the kingdom’s most prominent business people, officials and princes. Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest crude producer, the biggest crude exporter and has the


Daily iron ore price update (meh)

Iron ore price charts for November 3, 2017: Tianjin spit listed 10 cents to $58.40. Paper rallied overnight but is stretching away from physical. Coking coal futures were firm. Steel too. Reuters has texture: Steel mills across China, particularly in the country’s biggest steel producing city of Tangshan, were expected to begin cutting production to


Fortescue’s troubles spread

Via Domainfax: Evans & Partners analyst Andrew Hines said life would get progressively tougher for Fortescue in coming years, as rising energy and currency costs combined with mine depletion and persistent pricing discounts. “Over the past four years Fortescue has deliberately lowered the average grade of its product by lowering the cut-off grade at its Cloudbreak operation


Daily iron ore price update (going nowhere)

Iron ore price charts for November 2, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose 80 cents to $59.30. Paper was flat overnight. Steel flat yesterday.  CISA released mid-October output number for major mills down -1% to 1.82mt per day. Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. We’re just range trading here. Nothing changed for me.


Welcome to China’s amazing NOBOR

Via Clyde Russell: In theory, the touted billions to be spent on ports, roads, railways, power plants and so on will serve as an ongoing stimulus for commodities such as iron ore, coal, copper, crude oil and a host of minor metals with industrial applications. If there was a flood of projects being financed and


Fortescue is in trouble again

Via Credit Suisse: Fortescue’s net present value would fall to just $1.40 a share if the current discounts are sustained. The lower-grade iron ore predominantly produced by Fortescue has historically sold at a 10 per cent discount to the spot price of higher grade material, but the gap has blown out to around 30 per


Adani stupidity mounts

Via Julien Vincent at Domainfax: But the government’s efforts to support Adani stretch well beyond the financial. We learned last week the former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce and Trade Minister Steven Ciobo had been providing assurances to the Chinese government over Adani receiving its approvals. A Freedom of Information request by The Australia Institute has turned


Daily iron ore price update (dead cat bounce)

Iron ore price charts for November 1, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose 10 cents to $58.50. Paper dead cat bounced overnight, especially coking coal. Steel futures firmed. I do yet think we’re at the bottom. Some comments from The Australian: Chinese delegates at the International Mining and Resources Conference in Melbourne reiterated ­medium-term forecasts of about


Sinking islanders condemn Adani

Via The Guardian: Pacific Islanders whose homes face eradication by rising sea levels have called on Australia to not fund the Adani Carmichael coalmine, as a new report reveals the worsening impact of climate change across Oceania. Residents of the endangered islands have described their forced displacement as like “having your heart ripped out of your


God condemns Adani

Not even God wants the Adani mine, it seems: It may have the Turnbull and Palaszczuk governments firmly in its corner, but the Adani super-mine is facing a formidable new opponent: the Christian faith. The Catholic and Anglican bishops of Townsville have issued a joint statement to their followers criticising “projected mega-mining developments across Queensland, especially the Galilee Basin”, and


Elon Musk brought to tears by Aussie power prices

From the Daily Heil: Billionaire energy mogul Elon Musk was almost brought to tears by Australia’s deepening electricity crisis that has prices soaring out of control. The Tesla boss was confronted with figures showing record numbers of people were disconnected because they couldn’t pay their bills. ‘Wow, really?’ he said in disbelief when told by 60 Minutes


Is oil back?

The oil bulls are snorting: The OPEC trade is back, and Saudi Arabia is in the driver’s seat. Just before the de facto OPEC leader doubled down on its plan to drain the oil glut, propelling Brent crude prices beyond $US60 ($78) a barrel for the first time since 2015, hedge funds were almost as bullish


Daily iron ore price update (smogged)

Iron ore price charts for October 27, 2017: Tianjin benchmark got smoked $1.90 to $58.70. Paper recovered a little overnight. Steel fell sharply. Everything is at the bottom of recent ranges and shutdowns have not even started in earnest yet, via Reuters: “More cities, including Tangshan, have been ordered to deepen production cuts during the


APLNG commits to greater gas price gouging

The LNGers get such an easy run considering the economic black hole they have unleashed. Via Domainfax: Gas producer and exporter Australia Pacific LNG has promised to significantly boost the supply of natural gas to the domestic east coast market, after striking a sales agreement with major shareholder Origin Energy. APLNG, a joint venture between


Daily iron ore price update (S11D)

Iron ore charts for October 26, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 0.8$ to $60.60. Paper fell further overnight. Steel futures are confused. More from Reuters: China has stepped up efforts to cut industrial production to to combat smog, which typically occurs during the winter months as industrial emissions mix with smoke from coal-fired heating units. Steel


Import, export prices signal terms-of-trade fall

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released export and import prices for the September quarter, which portends another fall in Australia’s terms-of-trade when the national accounts are released in early December. According to the ABS, export prices fell by 3.0% over the September quarter but were up by 14.2% over