Commodities

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UBS: Vale’s iron ore problems deepen

Via UBS today: Court orders closure 30mtpa Brucutu mine; this was not expected by Vale Yesterday a Brazilian court ordered Vale to halt activity at 8 tailings dams, including 3 built using the “upstream” method & 5 “downstream” dams ( news); as a result of this Vale has stopped production at its 30mtpa Brucutu mine

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Another US LNG monster goes ahead

Via CNBC: Exxon Mobil and Qatar Petroleum on Tuesday announced a final decision to finance a $10 billion-plus project to export liquefied natural gas from the Texas Gulf Coast. The decision moves forward the latest export terminal fueling growing shipments of U.S. LNG, or natural gas cooled to liquid form, for overseas travel. The Department

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Labor delays LNG import rort

Thank goodness, via the AFR: Credit Suisse energy analyst Saul Kavonic said that despite the crowd of proposals, none may get a green light this year. “I remain sceptical of an LNG import terminal achieving FID [final investment decision] this year due to poor appetite by industrial buyers, social licence challenges, and the risk posed

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Daily iron ore price update (Vale panic)

Iron ore prices for February 1st, 2019: Spot rose moderately while paper went limit up. Steel is still firming. Reuters quotes an hysterical ANZ: “While the company is proposing to increase production elsewhere, we estimate a net total loss of around 13 mt (million tonnes) in 2019,” ANZ commodity strategists Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari

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Bitcoin makes new low, JPMorgan says lower still

by Chris Becker Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future direction of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin came back from almost touching $3400USD per coin overnight, but nearly $100 lower than the breakdown price I suggested last week: JPMorgan recently upset the HODL crowd by suggesting the true value of Bitcoin resides around $2800USD, which would

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Vale to pull 40mt of iron ore

Via the AFR: The fallout from the Brazilian tailings dam disaster took a stunning turn on Wednesday, with the owner of the dam, Vale, signalling it will pull as much as 40 million tonnes out of the market as it races to decommission 19 similar dams. The death toll from the tragedy stands at 84,

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2019 is not the year for oil

by Chris Becker 2019 is not likely to be a stellar year for oil prices, despite the 20% rally since Christmas last year as production ramps up despite “co-ordinated” cuts by OPEC, more shale oil comes online in the US and demand fades as global growth slows. First, on the Saudi’s penchant for saying one

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Daily iron ore price update (bears)

Iron ore prices for January 9, 2019: All soft. Bloomie carries some warnings: “The $75 a ton iron ore price is not sustainable for two reasons,” the Goldman analysts said. “First, part of the rally was fueled by mills restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year. Second, supply is set to increase in 2019.” Morgan

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Daily iron ore price update (deal or no deal)

Iron ore prices for January 8, 2019: Everything flat. Clyde Russell is bullish now: Commodity markets appear to have delivered their verdict on China’s plans to stimulate its economy, betting that Beijing’s boost to infrastructure spending will work. China’s central bank cut the amount of cash that banks have to hold as reserves for a

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Daily iron ore price update (the build)

Iron ore prices for January 7, 2018: Everything up again, as expected. This is the strongest seasonal period of the year. Rebar inventories have made the turn and Chinese iron ore port stocks are up again too. How far will the restock run is the question? Vertical Group is bearish: Expectations of Seasonal Restock Help

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Daily iron ore price update (restocking)

Iron ore prices for January 4, 2019: Everything was up Friday. This is typical seasonal restocking activity. Expect it to run for most of January. Beyond that I am bearish. China has not delivered enough stimulus yet. The steel PMI in December remains quite weak as does the steel price. CISA output for mid-December slumped. 

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Adani delayed again by 11th hour red tape

QLD Labor is running interference for Bill Shorten: Indian energy giant Adani will miss its Christmas deadline to begin construction of its controversial $2 billion Carmichael mine after the Palaszczuk Labor government commissioned an independent review into the company’s environmental management plans – a process which is expected to take at least two months. Although Adani Mining

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Daily iron ore price update (Minas Rio)

Iron ore prices for December 21, 2018: Spot firmed. Paper fell. Steel bounced on some supply side shutdowns. Coking coal is still bulletproof. In news, Minas Rio is back: Anglo American (AAL.L) said on Friday it was restarting operations at its Minas-Rio iron ore mine in Brazil after months of closure, and had received regulatory

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More on the Samarco return

Via Platts: Samarco may restart iron ore pellet production activities as early as late 2019, and operate toward an 8 million mt/year rate during 2020, to meet high global pellet demand, the company said. Samarco will continue to use wet processing via floatation of iron ore, and aims to produce the same pellet grades as

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Daily iron ore price update (forecasts)

Iron ore prices for December 12, 2018 Spot stable. Paper too. Steel rebounded. Nothing burger. Westpac has some good material on next year: Three factors were behind the recovery in iron ore prices in 2018: 1) the restructuring of the Chinese steel industry and resulting lift in steel prices; 2) declining Chinese ore production due

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Daily iron ore price update (convulsive)

Iron ore price charts for December 11, 2018: Spot is treading water. Paper jumped convulsively when it learned that Chinese credit is crashing. Coking coal contracts rolled forward. Steel is weak and getting weaker. Iron ore these days rises long before any actual stimulus meaning that strength is greeted with price rises and weakness with