James Aitken: Lucky Country to boom forever now!

The best of the Aitken boys with good stuff today: The conflict-induced energy shock and a reshaping of a global geopolitical world order would benefit Australia, if the nation can effectively navigate the energy transition. That’s the view of London-based financial markets’ consultant James Aitken who believes countries with a reliable supply of national resources


Daily iron ore price update (Simandon’t)

The ferrous complex was down on Friday February 11, 2022: Mysteel indexes are still weak: The big news is this: Guinea’s ruling junta has ordered the cessation of all activities at the massive Simandou iron ore deposit owned by Rio Tinto and a Chinese-backed consortium, saying it was seeking clarification of how Guinea’s interests will


What’s driving mayhem in commodities?

I still don’t buy the whole “underinvestment” theme. Most of the major bulks and metals that I track are in fundamental oversupply. Supply was temporarily hit by COVID and excess demand in goods. But that is all a by-the-by now. Two other factors have swamped this context. Reflexivity is one and the Russian embargo is


Back to the 70s with a bullet

FTAlphaville with the note. — The news around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is moving fast. To the extent that almost any article that one starts becomes horribly out of date by the time it’s finished. But one thing that can’t be denied is the volatility in commodity prices at the moment. This Monday morning, Brent


At what price does oil kill the global economy?

JPM first: While energy is carved out from the sanctions package, this week it became clear that Russian oil is being ostracized. As of today, 66% of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers. PresidentBidenisfacingpressurefromlawmakersinbothpartiestocompletely cut off US imports of Russian oil and gas. In Europe,the conflict is leading to are think of European energy


Daily iron ore price update (to the moon, sort of)

The ferrous complex followed all dirt higher on March 3, 2022: The proximate cause: China’s top government officials have issued orders to prioritize energy and commodities supply security, sparked by concerns over disruptions stemming from the Ukraine-Russia war. Government agencies, including the country’s top economic planning body — the National Development & Reform Commission —


Chinese construction sinks from sight

The media and research reports are full of bull about a Chinese construction recovery that is just not happening. Finally, yesterday, Bloomie broke the spell: A widely-anticipated push by China’s government to boost construction in order to stabilize growth in the world’s second-largest economy has yet to materialize, a blow to hopes that Chinese stimulus


Daily iron ore price update (Russian yawn)

The ferrous complex firmed on February 28, 2022: Heres’ the narrative: On the Singapore Exchange, iron ore’s most-active April contract SZZFJ2 rose as much as 3.2% to $141.05 a tonne. “Any prolonged military campaign will severely impact annual iron ore exports totaling almost 70 million tonnes from Russia and Ukraine, eventually tightening the global balance,”


China can crush iron ore prices this time

This is a dull comment: That’s reason to be highly skeptical that Beijing’s plans to rein in the wild swings in the iron ore market will succeed. The government is developing a state-backed platform to coordinate all Chinese purchases of the steelmaking material, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News this week. In theory, that


Daily iron ore price update (Ukraine)

The ferrous complex was moderately shocked by Ukraine on February 24, 2022: Ukraine exported 47mt of iron ore in 2020 so it presents a moderate downwards supply risk to global supply. That said, most of the activity is in central Ukraine, away from the most contested areas in a martial sense. That said, the Dneiper


Daily iron ore price update (NDRC hammer)

The ferrous complex is fighting a pointless battle to stay alive: Steel output was weak during the first 10 days of February. This is more than Olympics: Port inventories keep surging: And the NDRC is on the warpath: Chinese authorities will prevent “excessive hoarding” of iron ore and guide port firms to ensure that traders