Commodities

12

Greens declare war on Adani

A bit of ticker finally from the The Greens, via The Australian: Greens leader Richard Di Natale says he’s prepared to stand in front of bulldozers and get arrested to stop Queensland’s Adani mine, and expects to be joined by many thousands of Australians. Predicting the protest action would be bigger than that which stopped

1

Daily iron price update (saved by coal)

Iron ore price charts for October 12, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 40 cents to $57.40. Steel futures caught up to some Golden Week losses. Coking coal is saving the complex. Reuters explains: Northern China’s Shanxi province, the country’s top coal producing region, will aim to cut concentrations of hazardous airborne particles known as PM2.5 by

2

Daily iron ore price update (uh oh)

Iron ore price charts for October 11, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was hit $1.30 to $57.80. Dalian held on overnight. Coking coal did better as plant shutdowns help it. Steel futures are breaking down. Reuters has texture: Inventory of rebar, a construction steel product, among Chinese traders rose by more than 250,000 tonnes from Sept. 29

3

Iron ore market balance tips heavily bearish

Some numbers today on bulk commodity third quarter shipments. Via UBS, first BHP: Iron ore shipments for the quarter from WAIO are forecast to be down ~11% sequentially at 63.6Mt (100% basis) based on vessel movements. This reflects scheduled port maintenance on BHP’s berths during the quarter at Port Hedland. Global iron ore production (equity)

0

Daily iron ore price update (into the unknown)

Iron ore price charts for October 9, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 10 cents to $61.60, outdoing paper which firmed slightly overnight. Coking coal is falling fast. CISA mid-September output was easing as normal. The winter shutdowns are all the rage now, via Reuters: Chinese authorities have ordered heavily air-polluting industries including steel to curb output

17

Aussies oppose Adani. So why are politicians persisting?

By Leith van Onselen Over the weekend, thousands of Australians across the country joined protests against the Adani Carmichael mega-coal project. From The ABC: Rallies in locations including Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, the Gold Coast and Port Douglas in North Queensland heard messages against Indian company Adani’s proposed mine in the Galilee Basin… Protesters spelled out

13

Why is Australia still pursuing the Adani white elephant?

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Why, if Adani’s gigantic Carmichael coal project is so on-the-nose for the banks and so environmentally destructive, are the federal and Queensland governments so avid in their support of it? Once again the absurdity of building the world’s biggest new thermal coal mine was put in stark relief on Monday evening

3

Daily iron ore price update (glooom)

Physical iron ore trade resumed yesterday with a whimper as Qingdao fell to $61.34 and Tianjin benchmark shed 30 cents to $61.20: Paper markets are still closed but CISA released mid-September major steel output data which fell 1% to 1.85mt per day: Pretty normal so no insight into shutdowns there yet. We also saw Port

7

Dispelling OBOR myths

From Mornginstar: Much has been written about China’s Belt and Road Initiative but Morningstar equity analysts think much of the overwhelmingly positive commentary lacks context and is wide of the mark. Major iron ore miners such as BHP Billiton (BLT), Rio Tinto (RIO), and Fortescue (FMG) all expect BRI to drive further growth in steel

1

Break the gas cartel or pay!

Via the AFR: …prices could be higher based on the spot Asian LNG price for the first quarter next year, translating to at least $11 a gigajoule for a large manufacturer in Victoria, and even more for a smaller one, said Mark Samter, energy analyst at Credit Suisse. The analysts are among energy market watchers that

0

Daily iron ore price update (Roy Hill)

A couple of stories today are important as China remains closed for Golden Week. Iron ore paper and physical are not trading and SGX has been running around on the spot: Last week’s iron ore port stocks jumped 2.75mt to 133.6mt: That is obviously a bearish signal coming into the break vis shutdowns dampening iron

1

RBA commodity price index flat in September

By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for September, which registered no change in either SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – or in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for September indicate that the index was unchanged (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms,

12

Adani white elephant won’t even pay Australian tax

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday, it was former Indian environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, and the former head of India’s Ministry of Power, E.A.S Sarma, sounding the alarm on Adani’s track record and the Carmichael coal mega-mine’s viability: “Adani Group’s track record on environmental management within the country [India] leaves a lot to be desired,” Mr Ramesh

6

Former Indian minister slams Adani’s poor track record

By Leith van Onselen The justification behind the proposed $1 billion concessional loan from Australian taxpayers to Adani to build the Carmichael coal project has taken another hit today with a former Indian environment minister sounding the alarm on Adani’s track record and the mega-mine’s viability. From The ABC: India’s former environment minister Jairam Ramesh

2

Daily iron ore price update (new low)

Iron ore price charts for September 29, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 1.9% to trade at $61.50. Paper was flat. Steel futures eased. China is on holiday until Thursday so this week’s trade will focus on SGX. More bearishness from Bloomberg: “We anticipate the price of iron ore to remain under pressure in the coming quarter,” Geordie

2

Daily iron ore price update (hanging on)

Tianjin benchmark fell 10 cents to $62.60. Paper eased lower. Steel too. Coking coal futures fell. Coke was hardest hit. Texture from Reuters: “Iron ore fundamentals are not good,” said Zhao Xiaobo of Sinosteel Futures in Beijing. “Imports will rise in the fourth quarter and the environmental restrictions on steel mills are reducing iron ore

8

Is Do-nothing Malcolm about to become a gas trader?

Via The New Daily: Australia’s gas producers are pushing the government to guarantee the purchase of gas in the domestic market, in a proposal that could cost taxpayers tens of millions of dollars. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull revealed he had cut a deal with Australia’s three biggest gas producers – Origin, Santos and Shell – that would solve

10

Strap in for another bowel-shaking dose of iron diorerhea

Yesterday China tightened again on property: Chinese property stocks plunged in Hong Kong after a raft of mainland cities added housing curbs, wrongfooting investors betting that the government’s next step would be to ease restrictions. Eight cities including Chongqing and Nanning rolled out curbs over the weekend, with most banning home resales within two to three