Commodities

6

Big Sleazy breaks to new lows

Dalian is trying to rebound: BHP is still nudging breakout: Big Gas continues its re-rating with exporters down and the domestic gougers flying: All I can say to that is, what a pack of bloody idiots we are. Big Gold is powering, working beautifully as portfolio insurance. I’m still a seller here for the short

2

Daily iron ore price update (stall)

Iron ore price charts for September 5, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose 30 cents to $77.50. Paper fell sharply overnight. Rebar is at new highs. Retuers has texture: China’s iron ore futures dropped on Tuesday for the first time in four sessions after a fire at a government-owned steel mill raised concerns that planned safety inspections may

5

Chinese steel mill reform drawing to a close

At last some clarity on the Chinese steel sector reform that has so disrupted the market his year. Via Macquarie: China commodities trip: Update on government policy and steel  At the start of this year, we highlighted that Chinese commodity demand would be intertwined with government policy in 2017. Government intervention has stepped up

3

Daily iron ore price update (full blown boom)

Iron ore price charts for September 1, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was unchanged at $75.80. Paper ripped overnight. Steel is hovering at the highs. Port stocks were basically stable. The thermal coal restock appears to be easing. CISA mid-August output at major steel mills was insane as induction mill closures swing some 40-50mt of production into

0

China steel PMI melts up

The China steel PMI is notoriously volatile. It is perhaps therefore a better directional indicator than it is an absolute reading on conditions. Nonetheless, today’s version is off its face at 57.2 with new orders rocketing to 66.6: Stock inventories are still drawing as well though raw materials are rising. The non-manufacturing PMI suggested a

1

USD driving metals rocket

Morgan Stanley is right today: Since mid-June, commodity price performances have been dominated by a currency trade. So what events could terminate this driver? Currencytrade, mostly: Over the last 8-10 weeks, ithas been increasingly difficult for us to identify the fundamental basis of the general lift in commodity prices (now >15-40% since mid-June). Yes, prices

25

Richo barks up the wrong power bill

Via a roundly climate change skeptical Richo: Malcolm Turnbull is running out of options as to what issue he might choose to fight the next election. This week he threw away what seemed to me to be his best option. By far the biggest issue in Australian politics today is electricity prices. Neither the Coalition

1

Daily iron ore price update (paper burn)

Iron ore price charts for August 29, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was down 40 cents to $76.10. Paper burned overnight, especially for coking coal. Steel has not updated. Paper is clearly falling faster than physical so the latter obviously has ongoing tightness. That said, if coking coal capitulates as its supply disruptions pass then the iron

19

North Korea shoots down ASX

Break! XJO has just seen its symmetrical triangle break down the wrong way. It’s taken out the 200DMA to boot: This clearly opens the way for lower. Thanks DPRK! This should still lead absolutely nowhere in terms of North Asian conflict. Japan and US have requested a UN Security Council meeting. But we’ve yet to