I was going to write this post yesterday but Damien Boey has beaten me to it: The trade balance has come in surprisingly strong, delivering “nominal easing” to offshore-exposed companies and their relatives. The September trade balance surprised well and truly to the upside, rising to $7.2 billion from an upwardly-revised $6.6 billion. We were
Texture from Reuters: Notwithstanding the pressure from stabilising supply from top exporters Brazil and Australia, iron ore prices should find support as steel margins have improved, analysts at ANZ Research said in a note. “Steel mills have been reluctant to restock raw materials as margins fell amid a gloomy outlook for steel demand,” they said.
Texture from MySteel: Many Chinese steelmakers, together with some iron ore traders, are actively drawing down their iron ore stocks at hand when mills in many areas are facing frequent curbs on their steelmaking operations, affecting iron ore consumption, Mysteel Global learned Tuesday. “We are cutting our procurement of seaborne iron ore cargoes from the
Texture from Reuters: Coking coal futures in China gained the most in four weeks on Tuesday amid market talks about fresh import curbs on the steelmaking raw material, following brisk purchases in recent months by the world’s biggest coal buyer and consumer. …With China’s coking coal imports in the first nine months of the year
Every modern nation needs good billionaires to fight evil ones. I have my issues with Mike Cannon-Brookes and the Atlassian cheap labour arbitrage model but on climate change he’s excellent, via David Crowe: “The people protesting over climate change are not quiet Australians. They are being loud because the government is quiet on the climate,”
Texture from Reuters: Vale, the world’s largest iron ore miner, said on Friday that Brazilian regulator ANM had allowed it to resume its Alegria mine operations, which were interrupted last March after a “stress test” failed to guarantee its stability. company said the resumption of mining activities at Alegria will allow it to restore 8
The RBA has released its commodity price index for October, which dived another 2.4% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and by 2.0% in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for October indicate that the index decreased by 2.4 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms,
Texture from Reuters: “(Iron ore) is getting hit from both sides – softening demand and improving supplies from Australia and Brazil in the second half of 2019,” analysts at ANZ Research said in a note. Hebei province has issued an “orange” smog alert effective Nov. 1, with pollution expected to be “severe”, the local environment
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released export and import prices for the September quarter, which portends a lift in Australia’s terms-of-trade when the national accounts are released in early December. According to the ABS, export prices rose by 1.3% over the September quarter and were up by 14.7% over the year, whereas import
Via RIO at Bloomie: Iron ore shipments from Rio Tinto Group could rise as much as 5% in 2020 as the producer recovers from operational issues in Australia this year, the exporter says Thursday. The No. 2 miner will also have consistent capacity for volumes of about 360m tons a year once a first phase of the
There are major warning sirens blaring around the ferrous complex. Texture from Reuters: “Expectations for steel consumption was pretty bad, but fell too much,” said Zhao Yu, an analyst with Huatai Futures. “Now it turns out (consumption is) not that bad, so prices recouped.” She added that the consumption was mainly in real estate and
Texture from Bloomie: Cargoes of the steelmaking material shipped via Hedland may swell to a new high in the fiscal year to June 2020, and over this calendar year may beat 2018’s total, Chief Executive Officer Roger Johnston said in an interview. Last year, iron ore volumes were 508.5 million tons, with most going to
Via the AFR: China’s restrictions on Australian coal are expected to remain in place into next year as Beijing seeks to moderate a spike in foreign imports of the commodity to protect domestic supply. While there had been hopes in Canberra that the unofficial quota on Australian coal exports to China would be wound back
Texture from Reuters: “Investors remained cautious amid subdued Chinese steel margins and construction demand,” ANZ Research analysts said in a note. “An undersupplied (global) market remains the reality and this has seen prices holding up near $90 a tonne,” ANZ analysts said. Rubbish. The market is oversupplied and will get more so when Vale returns
Via Tom Price, head of commodities at Macquarie: The world’s metal producers, traders and market commentators arrive in London this week for a big annual gathering. We expect the debate to focus on how to position for a full US-China trade deal, or expanded fiscal stimulus in China. But this is all just short-term noise.
Texture from Reuters: But Darren Toh, data scientist at Singapore-based steel and iron data analytics company Tivlon Technologies, said he remained bullish on iron ore. Steel inventory is easing and the pace of infrastructure projects is accelerating, said Toh, adding that increasing property investment was also being seen. Meh. It’s seasonal. To the charts: Spot
Yes it is, even if the usual suspects try to distort the figures, via The Australian: Australian consumers were paying 71 per cent more on average for spot gas at the current market price than export “netbacks”, which measure the delivered price of LNG minus the costs of liquefaction and transport, a study from the
Texture from Reuters: Steel product inventories in China notched up a third weekly decline in the week to Oct. 25, down 600,000 tonnes from the previous week at 9.85 million tonnes, marking the lowest level since mid-January, according to data compiled by Mysteel consultancy. That is normal for time of year and it has cleared
Texture from Reuters: “While Tangshan cities are facing production curbs to reduce pollution, other steel plants are reported to increase their production because of attractive profitability,” Argonaut Securities said in a note. China’s top steelmaking province of Hebei had implemented overnight inspections on illegal industrial works and emissions as an effort to crack down pollution,
And it ain’t up. Via Zero Hedge: Once upon a time Caterpillar was considered the bellwether stock for the industrial sector. If that’s still the case, then the world is on the verge of a recession as moments ago CAT reported dismal Q3 earnings while slashing its profit outlook, blaming deteriorating global growth. CAT reported
Not much to add today beyond the charts: Spot firmed. Paper fell overnight. Market still appears soft.
Via Yahoo: The rally in Asian liquefied natural gas prices may soon run out of steam as the bulk of winter purchasing is complete, leaving the market awash with supply. Benchmark LNG Japan/Korea Marker futures have jumped about 50% since mid-September to the highest in eight months as a boom in vessel rates and unplanned
Texture from Reuters: China’s iron ore futures extended gains for a third session, buoyed by continued supply worries, after Brazil’s Vale closed a tailing dam earlier this month, and lowered full year iron ore and pellet sales guidance The increase in prices was curbed by cooling demand as China is coming into autumn-winter heating season,
Here it is: Thermal coal is today sitting at $68: And coking coal has bounced a little out of its rout at $152: As it stands, coking coal is right at budget projections and thermal is well below. I expect both to keep falling through 2020 as China slows and it keeps the pressure on
Neither. It’s going to stagnate. Some links from Sinocism as we head into the Fourth Plenum: China Braces for Sub-6% Economic Growth in Key Policy Meetings – Bloomberg Data released Friday showed an economy expanding at just 6.0%, the slowest in almost three decades, and with broad investment growth too tepid to rely on an
A little short term luck for iron ore today: On this, via Reuters: Brazilian iron ore miner Vale said on Monday it has temporarily shut down its Itabiruçu tailings dam and lowered its full year iron ore and pellet sales guidance as a result. Vale said it had shut down the dam so it could
Picking up the bat and running with it is GLJ research: Is it Realistic to Envision an Environment where Iron Ore Prices Drop Back to the 1989-2003 Avg. of $30/MT – i.e., the Pre-China Construction Boom Price? First off, we’ll remind our readers that from the period of 1998-2003, 62% Fe spot iron ore prices
Texture from Argus: China’s steel sector profitability remained sluggish in the peak sales month of October as a slowing economy and high output rates pressured product prices. The average gross profit margin on rebar sales is around 200-400 yuan/t ($29-57/t) and up to Yn200/t for hot-rolled coil (HRC), with some HRC sellers barely breaking even
Pig’s bottom, at the AFR: A Chinese state-owned entity will seek to revive a $9.7 billion mining rail and port project in Western Australia, in a move that could unlock the nation’s next iron ore export province. Sinosteel has acquired Japanese giant Mitsubishi’s interests in the long-stalled Oakajee Port and Rail project, in a deal
Texture from Reuters: China’s central province of Henan has issued an orange smog alert, the second highest in the nation’s three-tier pollution alarm system, which will be applied to 12 cities. The alert means pollution controls in heavy industries, including steel and coke, will be strengthened from Oct. 18 to Oct. 23. In China’s top
