Iron ore prices for November 16, 2018: Spot up. Paper down. Steel flat. Rebar stocks are crashing as Winter output shutdowns get underway. We should have already seen price draw downs by now. Whether they’ll still happen I have no idea. The next relatively certain period of material price action will be February when prices
November 15, 2018: Spot down. Paper soared. Steel is still fading. By rights we should be falling but this market has become almost impossible to call. Once upon a time it was one of the purest supply and demand markets around which made it easy to track. But the advent of futures, supply side
Because there is no doubt that it is in our national interest. Don’t get me wrong. This is not my usual line that Australian democracy needs the protection of a US hegemony to survive (although that is the primary benefit). This is much closer to home and much more needed today. Cold War 2.0 has
Chinese house prices for October are out and the path is for the Cold War 2.0 growth offset. As indutrial prouction takes a tariff hit, China’s is going to allow house prices to rise and build more empty apartments. October prices were up 1%: 64 of 70 cities are rising at 4% or above: Only
Iron ore price for November 14, 2018: Spot down. Paper held. Steel up on bad news is good news as China slows. I still us falling here.
It’s all so horribly predictable. Via the AFR: After announcing that the world has arrived at a “new era for energy”, Coleman asked: “Where is the vision from our leaders today?” …”as renewables achieve scale, we risk wasting money on building more power into the system, resulting in generation overload. We risk ending up in
Iron ore prices for November 13, 2018: Spot fell. Paper too. Steel held up. Late October CISA steel output came off sharply as it should with falling seasonal demand. Surely she’s going to break here. Demand is waning with questions over Chinese stimulus. Supply issues in Peru, Brazil and Pilbara are resolved. Mills are destocking
Iron ore prices for November 12, 2018: Spot eased. Paper rallied. Steel is breaking. Ferrous complex looks ripe for shunt lower here.
Via Westpac: Chinese steel, iron ore and coal Chinese environmental policies have boosted the demand for higher grades of iron ore but in the long run they may drive a structural shift in demand. Chinese mills are increasingly using scrap steel as its supply grows with more buildings being torn down, more cars crushed and
Iron ore price charts for November 9, 2018: Spot jumped. Paper fell. Steel firmed. BHP is back: “Rail operations recommenced last night with additional controls in place to ensure safe operations.” A regulatory investigation is ongoing, and controls on board the trains have been risk assessed. The investigation will attempt to understand what happened after
And we thought our LNG boom was big. Via Reuters: U.S. liquefied natural gas company Tellurian Inc said on Wednesday it expects to start construction on its Driftwood LNG export terminal in Louisiana in the first half of 2019 and begin operations in 2023. Chief Executive Meg Gentle said in the company’s third-quarter earnings that
Iron ore prices for November 8, 2018: Spot jumped as Chinese trade held up. Paper too. Steel is struggling and that is the real message for the next month I think. Still see prices going lower before higher into new year. The trade data showed steel exports coming off in October to 5.5mt and that’s
Straight out of the movies this: Trains to be running again within a week.
Spot was down sharply. Paper rallied overnight on BHP’s train wreck. Steel looks ready break down. Port Hedland shipments remain weak as miners find all manner of excuses to reduce volumes. They haven’t grown in 18 months. BHP has declared force majeur: BHP does not believe its stockpiles of iron ore at Port Hedland, in
Iron ore prices for November 6, 2018: Spot flat. Paper down. Steel down. Port stocks down to 141.65mt. We appear to be entering the Q4 correction now, delayed by stimulus hopes. They appear to be a little ahead of the curve given the PMIs: Infrastructure is being rolled out to offset industrial production. But only
Iron ore prices for November 5, 2018: Spot jumped. Paper too. Because this: A train loaded with iron ore and operated by BHP ran away without a driver for 57 miles (92km) before being forcibly derailed, the company and Australian authorities have said. On Monday, the world’s biggest miner suspended all Western Australian iron ore rail operations while
Iron ore prices for November 2, 2018: Spot down. Paper down more. Steel too. Rebar inventories fell sharply again last week in a normal seasonal pattern. They remain fine. What is interesting is that the moment markets have rallied on a possible trade deal between the US and China, iron ore has begun to correct.
This might be hard for you to believe. As we know, President Donald Trump does not believe in climate change. Indeed, he professes a love for coal and delivers policy in support of it. The US has trashed multilateral climate change agreements over and again while Australia has supported them. To the Fake Left the
UBS wraps it up nicely for BHP: BHP has today announced that it will return the full US$10.4bn net proceeds from shale to shareholders almost immediately through a combination of an off-market buyback in Nov/Dec 18 (US$5.2bn) and a special dividend of US$5.2bn (~US$1.01ps) payable in January 2019. Further returns expected at the half year
Iron ore price for November 1, 2018: Spot down again. Paper and steel more. The Steel PMI actually held up well as building accelerates. There’s more of that ahead. We’re already seeing a big new infrastructure push. Property is an open question. They say it will reined but so far it’s the opposite. The downdraft
Good luck, via the AFR: Indian energy giant Adani is weeks away from pulling the trigger on its controversial Carmichael mine in Central Queensland after scaling back its size and scope to convince banks to finance the project. While many industry experts doubted the economics of the original $16.5 billion Carmichael project – which planned
Iron ore price for October 31, 2018: Spot and paper flat. Steel down. CISA output for mid-October has begun the seasonal draw down. In news, it MOAR: “The leadership is paying great attention to the problems, and will be more preemptive and take action in a timely manner,” according to the statement Wednesday. The Politburo
Iron ore prices for October 30, 2018: Spot down. Paper more. Steel OK. Today’s test will be the China PMIs. Pantheon Economics is not hopeful: I am inclined to agree.
Bloomie has a little coverage the Chinese steel scraptastrophe today: With tighter emission limits, improved furnace technology and output curbs, mills are using more scrap than ever before, according to Goh Kian Guan, chief investment officer at recycler Chiho Environmental Group Ltd. If a steelmaker is causing too much pollution, “there’ll be a chance they
Iron ore price charts for October 29, 2018: Spot down. Paper down more. Coking coal has flamed out. Steel too. Port stocks are rising again, back up to 144mt which at least helps explain recent price moves. There are some other warning signs developing too. Via Vertical Group: ▪ Two of the Key Data Points
Iron ore prices for October 26, 2018: Spot up. Paper up more. Steel up. There’s no downside here. Steel inventories are drawing despite massive output. Moderate stimulus is underway and it’s going to turn aggressive as tariffs weigh on industrial output. Xi Jinping has promised MOAR. Coking coal supply is squeezed. It’s boom chakalaka!
Iron ore prices for October 25, 2018: All prices were roughly stable except coking coal futures which are still pointing to heaven. CISA output for early October remains insane. The entire ferrous complex is oblivious to wider ructions as coking coal is squeezed and China pours in stimulus. We bought more major iron ore miners
Iron ore prices for October 24, 2018: Spot gone wild. Paper too. Steel strong. Coking coal supply crunch, building bonanza, Xi put, what’s not to like? To the moon!
Some charts from John Kemp: Bearish for Aussie GDP…
Iron ore prices for October 23, 2018: Spot eased. Paper too. Steel is fine. Rebar inventories came off solidly last week showing Chinese building is still booming. And is it any wonder? Reform is forgotten. It’s back to the good ‘ol days of build ’til you drop: We’ll slow and fall through winter but 2019
