Commodities

4

Chinese house prices power on

Chinese house prices for October are out and the path is for the Cold War 2.0 growth offset. As indutrial prouction takes a tariff hit, China’s is going to allow house prices to rise and build more empty apartments. October prices were up 1%: 64 of 70 cities are rising at 4% or above: Only

2

Daily iron ore price update (not obvious)

Iron ore price charts for November 9, 2018: Spot jumped. Paper fell. Steel firmed. BHP is back: “Rail operations recommenced last night with additional controls in place to ensure safe operations.”  A regulatory investigation is ongoing, and controls on board the trains have been risk assessed. The investigation will attempt to understand what happened after

4

The astounding US LNG pipeline

And we thought our LNG boom was big. Via Reuters: U.S. liquefied natural gas company Tellurian Inc said on Wednesday it expects to start construction on its Driftwood LNG export terminal in Louisiana in the first half of 2019 and begin operations in 2023. Chief Executive Meg Gentle said in the company’s third-quarter earnings that

1

Daily iron ore price update (train wreck)

Spot was down sharply. Paper rallied overnight on BHP’s train wreck. Steel looks ready break down. Port Hedland shipments remain weak as miners find all manner of excuses to reduce volumes. They haven’t grown in 18 months. BHP has declared force majeur: BHP does not believe its stockpiles of iron ore at Port Hedland, in

1

Daily iron ore price update (peak)

Iron ore prices for November 6, 2018: Spot flat. Paper down. Steel down. Port stocks down to 141.65mt. We appear to be entering the Q4 correction now, delayed by stimulus hopes. They appear to be a little ahead of the curve given the PMIs: Infrastructure is being rolled out to offset industrial production. But only

1

Daily iron ore price update (ghost train)

Iron ore prices for November 5, 2018: Spot jumped. Paper too. Because this: A train loaded with iron ore and operated by BHP ran away without a driver for 57 miles (92km) before being forcibly derailed, the company and Australian authorities have said. On Monday, the world’s biggest miner suspended all Western Australian iron ore rail operations while

16

As BHP hoses cash to foreigners, do recall it’s your kid’s dough

UBS wraps it up nicely for BHP: BHP has today announced that it will return the full US$10.4bn net proceeds from shale to shareholders almost immediately through a combination of an off-market buyback in Nov/Dec 18 (US$5.2bn) and a special dividend of US$5.2bn (~US$1.01ps) payable in January 2019. Further returns expected at the half year

1

Daily iron ore price update (crunchtime)

Iron ore price for November 1, 2018: Spot down again. Paper and steel more. The Steel PMI actually held up well as building accelerates. There’s more of that ahead. We’re already seeing a big new infrastructure push.  Property is an open question. They say it will reined but so far it’s the opposite. The downdraft

7

Adani mini-me revs up

Good luck, via the AFR: Indian energy giant Adani is weeks away from pulling the trigger on its controversial Carmichael mine in Central Queensland after scaling back its size and scope to convince banks to finance the project. While many industry experts doubted the economics of the original $16.5 billion Carmichael project – which planned

2

Daily iron ore price (MOAR stimulus)

Iron ore price for October 31, 2018: Spot and paper flat. Steel down. CISA output for mid-October has begun the seasonal draw down. In news, it MOAR: “The leadership is paying great attention to the problems, and will be more preemptive and take action in a timely manner,” according to the statement Wednesday. The Politburo

9

China’s scraptastrophe builds

Bloomie has a little coverage the Chinese steel scraptastrophe today: With tighter emission limits, improved furnace technology and output curbs, mills are using more scrap than ever before, according to Goh Kian Guan, chief investment officer at recycler Chiho Environmental Group Ltd. If a steelmaker is causing too much pollution, “there’ll be a chance they

4

Daily iron ore price update (boomchakalaka)

Iron ore prices for October 26, 2018: Spot up. Paper up more. Steel up. There’s no downside here. Steel inventories are drawing despite massive output. Moderate stimulus is underway and it’s going to turn aggressive as tariffs weigh on industrial output. Xi Jinping has promised MOAR. Coking coal supply is squeezed. It’s boom chakalaka!

5

Daily iron ore price update (buy)

Iron ore prices for October 25, 2018: All prices were roughly stable except coking coal futures which are still pointing to heaven. CISA output for early October remains insane. The entire ferrous complex is oblivious to wider ructions as coking coal is squeezed and China pours in stimulus. We bought more major iron ore miners