Daily iron ore price update (iron will)

The ferrous complex was soft on April 21, 2022: News is driven by the big three miners: BHP, the world’s largest listed miner, fell short of estimates for iron ore production for the March quarter, as a pandemic-related labour crunch weighed on its efforts to boost production in Australia’s Pilbara region. The miner also warned


Daily iron ore price update (hoarding)

The ferrous complex was mostly weak on April 19, 2022: The newsflow was poor: The iron ore price fell on Tuesday after a spokesperson for China’s state planner said the country would keep reducing steel output this year. Adding to concerns over demand prospects for the key steelmaking raw material, China’s steel production hub Tangshan


Daily iron ore price update (EAF returns)

The ferrous complex rallied modestly over Easter, 2022: Yesterday’s China data dump revealed a few things. First, steel production has leaped: Pig iron output is running at about 2018/19 levels, down roughly 9% YoY or 30mt of iron ore through Q1: The rebound has restarted recycling at scale but it isn’t showing any signs of


Grantham: Commodities to rise forever now

GMO’s Jeremy Grantham is back to his Malthusian best. I should remind you that he said almost exactly the same thing in 2010 before an enormous commodities bust. I disagree on decarbonisation being “spectacularly resource intensive”. In fact, the impact on consumption of extractive commodities is mild as recycling booms too. China is also about


Of commodities and Bretton Woods III

Below find Zoltan Pozsar’s latest note on his notion of Bretton Woods III underpinned by commodities. It’s a brilliant read but I still don’t entirely agree with it. I can’t see how a workaround for Russia to sell commodities to China (or India) has to result in a Eurorenminbi market that anybody else buys into.


Daily iron ore price update (falls coming?)

The ferrous complex was bizarre on March 31, 2002: The unprecedented dislocation between spot and futures continues with the latter much higher than the former. I can only surmise that this is because futures are overbid by speculators while the underlying market is saturated with supply. Steel demand remains terrible. The China Steel PMI was


Daily iron ore price update (fog)

The ferrous complex was soft on March 29, 2022: Chinese authorities have resumed their operations with Dalian hiking transaction fees again. However, for the time being, all that matters is the fog around Ukraine and OMICRON which may support prices until we get greater clarity. Against that, the Chinese PMIs will probably show more weakness.


Daily iron ore price update (just awful)

The ferrous complex was strong on March 25, 2022: Chinese demand is just awful but production is only terrible: There is still nothing fundamental to rationalise such high prices but we’ve got so many disruptions to both supply and demand in raw materials and finished steel that fog has settled over the market and bidding


Are commodity supply chains in danger is siezing up?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. — Sometimes repo guru Zoltan Pozsar is so far ahead of his time, it takes the “experts” weeks just to read up on all the required source docs to even grasp what he is talking about. Last week we reported that the Bloomberg news that one of the world’s largest independent energy merchants – the secretive


Daily iron ore price update (CISA sound)

The ferrous complex was strong on March 23, 2022: CISA mid-March output was out and rebounded: One wonders if Chinese mills are starting to benefit from curtailed Ukrainian and Russian steel exports. Combined they were nearly 50mt. I’d expect China to pick up the lion’s share of whatever is knocked out. The export PMI will