Iron ore prices for June 22, 2020: Brazil had a better day but will likely get much worse yet: Chinese data remains crap outside of empty apartments: The following captures my view, from Platts: The iron ore supply shortage that has helped support high prices in recent months looks set to continue with Vale likely
Iron ore prices for June 19, 2020: Everything roughly stable on Friday. Port stocks edged up. One bearish signal has emerged, the BDI: Via Reuters: “Most of the strength is due to increased Chinese steel mill demand for iron ore coupled with the increased production and exports out of Brazil,” said Randy Giveans, vice-president, equity
Iron ore prices for June 18, 2020: Chinese data remains terrible outside of empty apartments: I still expect the Brazilian pandemic to get much worse: Here’s the latest Chinese steel inventory chart: 30mt in June is insane. It should be 10mt lower. That said, the glut has slightly diminished in seasonally adjusted terms and I
Iron ore prices for June 17, 2020: Chinese data is still bloody ordinary: So is Brazilian: So I take this with a grain of salt: Iron ore miner Vale said that operations will gradually resume at its Itabira complex in Brazil. The complex was shuttered on June 5 due to the spreading COVID-19 virus. The
Iron ore prices for June 16, 2020: CISA steel output hit another record high in early June according to CISA: Despite Chinese data still crawling higher: Brazil is still getting worse: No change for me. I still see iron ore approaching last year’s highs at $130. In news, there’s more ore coming next year: Iron
Iron ore prices for June 12, 2020: Spot jumped and paper signalled more ahead. Steel is a little left behind. The latest Chinese data is still crap outside of empty apartments, which is all that matters: Brazil’s virus shocker is getting worse: The US-based Insitute for Health Metrics offers a glimpse of where it’s going:
Iron ore prices for June 11, 2020: China’s recovery still looks crap: Outside of empty apartments and bridges to nowhere of course: And Brazil looks disastrous: The iron ore bull case is intact but will probably get sucked into the broader markets vortex in the short term.
Via Reuters: The office that enforces labor laws in Brazil’s Para state has stepped up an investigation into potential shortcomings in mining giant Vale’s efforts to protect workers from the coronavirus, authorities said on Wednesday. The federal labor prosecutor’s office in Para has an internal working group in place known as the GEAF to monitor
Iron ore prices for June 10, 2020: Some pullback across the board which always happens in June: Platts does not think it will get far this time: Rebar inventories have started to build in southern and eastern China as the rainy season slows construction activity, but steel prices are unlikely to fall sharply as the
Iron ore prices for June 9, 2020: Not much change in things. Chinese data is still crap, excepting empty apartments: Brazil’s virus data is on the weekend but is still rising week over week: Up remains the path of least resistance for iron ore, notwithstanding short term seasonal headwinds. Longer-term it’s the opposite, via Reuters:
Iron ore price for June 8, 2020: Chinese steel exports in May were awful at 4.4mt: Iron ore imports weren’t great either at 87.03mt but the rolling annual hit its highest in two years: The Chinese recovery looks completely stalled out: But all that matters is Brazil: At least, that was all that mattered: Brazil
Iron ore prices for June 5, 2020: Spot took off Friday. Paper as well. Port inventories of iron ore are still falling, down to 108mt. CISA steel output hit outrageous all-time highs above 2.09mt for the late May fortnight. The industrial base in China is stuffed, leveling off at 90% output. And that is being
Iron ore prices for June 5, 2020: Not much in news. Brazil is still awful: Chia is leveling off at 90% industrial recovery but realty is the main game: UBS offers a few charts that capture where we are: The steel mountain has not adjusted at all so mills could cut production at any time
Yep. Via UBS: Iron ore appears well-supported by current tightness The iron ore price (62% CFR China) has averaged US$89/t YTD with spot now over US$100/t and above our CY 20e forecast of US$86/t. We are comfortable with our forecast based on 1) a strong recovery in Vale iron ore production which will require a
Iron ore prices for June 5, 2020: We’ve stalled for now. Chinese indicators appear to have settled at around 90% capacity recovery in everything except building: Brazilian supply remains the key story. Virus to the moon: Iron ore shipments seriously struggling: Vale is going to have to warn again. And other problems: June is seasonally
Iron ore prices for June 2, 2020: AFR has a great story today: The Brazilian company at the centre of the iron ore price rally says its mines are running on minimum staff levels to prevent the spread of the coronavirus among its workforce, as its licence to operate comes under extreme pressure from Brazilian
Iron ore prices for June 1, 2020: Spot somehow fell despite runaway futures which then reversed overnight. The surge is driven by a combination of recovering Chinese demand as empty apartments blossom with infrastructure: The steel PMI launched back into the positive at 50.9 with new orders surging to 52.6: Leaving China short of the
The RBA has released its commodity price index for May, which rebounded 1.8% in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – but slumped by 7.4% over the year: Preliminary estimates for May indicate that the index increased by 1.8 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after
Iron ore prices for May 29, 2020: Everything to the moon. The China PMI has construction registering above 60 again, boom-time levels. This is despite what remains a weak Chinese recovery: But, as usual, what growth in activity there is is focussed on, you guessed it, empty apartments and roads to nowhere. So all good
Iron ore prices for May 28, 2020: Brazil looks bad again: It could be bad enough to disrupt seasonal weakness.
Apologies for lateness today. Been wrestling with a Telstra bot all morning. Iron ore prices for May 27, 2020: Not much in news. Here’s the latest steel inventory chart: Looks impressive but it isn’t. Seasonally-adjusted the stock is just as high as it was at its peak. The reasons why is that demand remains relatively
Via The Australian: Australian barley on its way to China has been diverted mid route to Japan and the United Arab Emirates following China’s decision to impose punitive trade tariffs on the grain. Four ships carrying Australian barley have changed course or cargo after rising trade tensions led to China — Australia’s biggest barley buyer
Iron ore prices for May 26, 2020: Not pretty on a day of tearaway broader fakeflation. Here’s why: China’s steel association and major steelmakers have called for an increase in domestic iron ore production as well as greater investment in exploration overseas to ensure supplies. He Wenbo, chairman of the China Iron & Steel Industry
Iron ore prices for May 22, 2020: Spot down on Hong Kong tensions. Paper and steel too. CISA major mill output for early May was the highest ever. My guess is that’s because a lot of EAF production remains offline. The reality is, end-user demand is still weak, via Capital Economics: And there wasn’t of
Iron ore prices for May 21, 2020: Everything flew late as this: After Brazilian iron ore miner Vale SA cut its 2020 production outlook to 310 million-330 million tonnes, from 340 million-355 million tonnes previously, “more downgrades may be on the way as COVID-19 infections accelerate in Brazil’s key mining provinces”, said Morgans Financial Ltd
Via the AFR comes a huge laugh out loud: China has changed its inspection procedures for iron imports under new rules that analysts say could be used to block Australia’s most important export, as trade tensions between the two countries escalate. China’s Customs authorities said in a notice the new supervising rules, which take effect
Iron ore prices for May 20, 2020: The latest high-frequency data from Capital Economics is not very good: If it were not for Brazilian risks these numbers would suggest that iron ore should be falling. Though there this: Local government debt issuance is mad as the infrastructure pipeline refills. Still, the recovery remains fitful and
Iron ore prices for May 19, 2020: These price moves are all about a Brazil supply panic. Which does not mean it’s not rational. The virus is going nuts: That said, this: A total of 88 vessels carrying 13.51 million mt of iron ore arrived at major Chinese ports during May 10-16, SMM estimates. This
Iron ore prices for May 18, 2020: Whoho! And we’re off. Spot to the moon. Paper…moon. I would like to see rebar break its downtrend too but the huge inventory overhang explains that. Port inventories are cratering. Add Brazil sinking into virus disaster and China reverting to form with building stimulus – which will get stronger
Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: “Hard” indicators in China improving. Official headline data for China were mixed in April. Industrial production surprised to the upside, while retail sales and fixed asset investment surprised to the downside. But there was general improvement in the “hard” indicators we track for the sake of the Australian commodities outlook. Year-ended growth in electricity
