Iron ore price charts for September 6, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell 30 cents to $77.20. Paper was down again. Steel has not updated. We’re dancing on a pin head here. No changes to the outlook.
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Daily iron ore price update (pin head)
Primary Section
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Big Sleazy breaks to new lows
Dalian is trying to rebound: BHP is still nudging breakout: Big Gas continues its re-rating with exporters down and the domestic gougers flying: All I can say to that is, what a pack of bloody idiots we are. Big Gold is powering, working beautifully as portfolio insurance. I’m still a seller here for the short
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Daily iron ore price update (stall)
Iron ore price charts for September 5, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose 30 cents to $77.50. Paper fell sharply overnight. Rebar is at new highs. Retuers has texture: China’s iron ore futures dropped on Tuesday for the first time in four sessions after a fire at a government-owned steel mill raised concerns that planned safety inspections may
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Chinese steel mill reform drawing to a close
At last some clarity on the Chinese steel sector reform that has so disrupted the market his year. Via Macquarie: China commodities trip: Update on government policy and steel At the start of this year, we highlighted that Chinese commodity demand would be intertwined with government policy in 2017. Government intervention has stepped up
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Big Sleazy tries to rally
Dalian still down: Big Iron flat a with BHP pushing hard at break out: Big Gas is weak, except Santos which is re-rating as the government sticks its head in its energy arse: Big Gold is on fire. I’m still a seller into strength on the basis that the DPRK will fade and USD is
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Daily iron ore price update (congestion)
Iron ore price charts for September 4, 2017: Tianjin benchmark jumped $1.40 to $77.20 which was catch-up really. Paper fell overnight. Steel has not updated. We’re seeing a little price congestion now but I still can’t see falls for a couple of months yet. With reform keeping steel margins so high, it’ll take a clear
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Sleaze Bank opens ASX trap door
Dalian has opened OK: So too Big Iron with BHP and RIO nudging break outs: Big Gas is stable, more than can be said for pensioner energy bills: Big Gold is powering. I’m still a trading seller into this strength. DPRK tensions should fade: Sleaze Bank has opened a trap door: And is rapidly approaching
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Where is all that Chinese steel going?
Some more today on the recent rocket ship of Chinese steel new orders, from Macquarie: Data from the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP)1 show that activity in China’s steel sector expanded at its fastest pace in August since April 2016, with the steel PMI index rising to 57.2 from 54.9 in July.
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Fed versus ECB battle intensifies
Friday night saw DXY soft and EUR strong: AUD tracked the two: Gold was firm and has jumped this morning: Brent was firm amid hurricane fog: Base metals are still crazy: Big miners have broken out across the board (except on the ASX, killed by AUD): EM stocks too: Not high yield which is a
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RBA commodity price index rebounds in August
By Leith van Onselen The RBA has released its commodity price index for August, which registered a 1.5% rebound in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and a 1.0% rise in Australian dollar terms: Preliminary estimates for August indicate that the index increased by 1.5 per cent (on a
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Daily iron ore price update (full blown boom)
Iron ore price charts for September 1, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was unchanged at $75.80. Paper ripped overnight. Steel is hovering at the highs. Port stocks were basically stable. The thermal coal restock appears to be easing. CISA mid-August output at major steel mills was insane as induction mill closures swing some 40-50mt of production into
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Ian Narev has killed the stock market
Dalian is still running: Big Iron is down as it goes ex-div: Big Gas is running too. The two pensioner rorts, STO and ORG, are re-rating I reckon. The market does love a rent-seeker: Big Gold loving it. I’m still a seller here on the basis that the USD fall is (largely) done: Sleaze Bank
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Daily iron ore price update (becalmed)
Iron ore price charts for August 31, 2017: Tianjin benchmark rose only 40 cents to $75.80 and is becalmed versus the hysterics at Dalian, which took off again yesterday. Steel fell. Coking coal is up again. Thermal appears likely to have topped. Yesterday’s steel PMI showed the boom runs unabated: New orders are bonkers. We’ve
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Australian dollar pump and dump
DXY fell last night as EUR roared again: AUD did the usual two-step: Was mixed against EMs: Gold surged: Oil surged as another hurricane heads for the US: Base metals too: Big miners are ripping towards break out: EM stocks too: US yields lifted but the curve sank: European spreads shrank: Stocks surged: It was
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China steel PMI melts up
The China steel PMI is notoriously volatile. It is perhaps therefore a better directional indicator than it is an absolute reading on conditions. Nonetheless, today’s version is off its face at 57.2 with new orders rocketing to 66.6: Stock inventories are still drawing as well though raw materials are rising. The non-manufacturing PMI suggested a
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The horribly slow process of oil rebalancing
Via Citi comes the horribly slow process of oil rebalancing: We’re at least a year from reasonable inventories if not more. And that with 2mb/d held off the market by OPEC and likely to leak. Then there’s the hurricanes: Five days after Hurricane Harvey hit the US Gulf Coast, it still seems early to
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US dollar bottom firms up
DXY took off last night after surviving its capitulation: EUR was hosed: Gold fell: AUD fell: But EMs fell more: Brent was socked: Base metals flamed out: EM stocks held on: And high yield: US yields lifted, the curve fell: EU yields lifted as well: Stocks rebounded: It’s still too early to call a USD
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Daily iron ore price update (meh)
Tianjin benchmark dropped 70 cents to $75.40. Paper stopped the fall last night. Coking coal too. Steel is still hovering at the highs. No change. Volatility for another month or tow then down.
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Sleaze Bank plunges on
The ASX is flat flat today, sitting right at the bottom of a scary descending triagle: Dalian is down again: Big Iron is mixed. BHP approaching break out: Big Gas and the pensioner gouge roar on: Big Gold too: The Big Sleaze can’t stop falling. Perhaps Narev has to go?
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USD driving metals rocket
Morgan Stanley is right today: Since mid-June, commodity price performances have been dominated by a currency trade. So what events could terminate this driver? Currencytrade, mostly: Over the last 8-10 weeks, ithas been increasingly difficult for us to identify the fundamental basis of the general lift in commodity prices (now >15-40% since mid-June). Yes, prices
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Did the US dollar just capitulate?
DXY was pulverised last night before putting in the big rally: The EUR was the complete reverse: AUD followed the two: Was mixed against EMs: Gold roared then slumped: Brent is weak given the soft USD: Not so base metals! Big miners are about to either break out or stick a big double top: EM
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Richo barks up the wrong power bill
Via a roundly climate change skeptical Richo: Malcolm Turnbull is running out of options as to what issue he might choose to fight the next election. This week he threw away what seemed to me to be his best option. By far the biggest issue in Australian politics today is electricity prices. Neither the Coalition
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Daily iron ore price update (paper burn)
Iron ore price charts for August 29, 2017: Tianjin benchmark was down 40 cents to $76.10. Paper burned overnight, especially for coking coal. Steel has not updated. Paper is clearly falling faster than physical so the latter obviously has ongoing tightness. That said, if coking coal capitulates as its supply disruptions pass then the iron
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North Korea shoots down ASX
Break! XJO has just seen its symmetrical triangle break down the wrong way. It’s taken out the 200DMA to boot: This clearly opens the way for lower. Thanks DPRK! This should still lead absolutely nowhere in terms of North Asian conflict. Japan and US have requested a UN Security Council meeting. But we’ve yet to
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Daily iron ore price update (volatility)
Iron ore price charts for August 28, 2017: Tianjin benchmark fell only 20 cents to $76.30 after futures dropped much further. Paper firmed overnight. Steel is stalled. We definitely appear to be getting bogged down at these levels across the complex. Iron ore has recently reacted to the weak USD but not now. CISA output