Commodities

From Citi: Low oil prices cure low oil prices… but markets got too excited before the medicine went down — Earlier in the year, expectations coalesced around there being a turning point in the oil market, with a focus of attention on both the demand and supply sides.

Big iron ore is firming today on hopes for a Chinese deal for Fortescue.

A couple of charts from the sell side throw some interesting light in the surprisingly firm iron ore market.

Here are the iron ore charts for August 17, 2015: Spot eased with Tianjin benchmark down 0.4% to $56.

A bit of a non-event last night in the oil market as we did a full circle up and then down to where started at $48.58 as I write.

It’s not a pretty picture for those with shovels today.

Lot’s of press today for Glencore.

From Alan Kohler: China is flooding the world with cheap steel and Europe, the US and India are now starting to respond with tough anti-dumping measures.

From Mac Bank: Upgrading to Outperform We are upgrading our recommendation on FMG from Neutral to Outperform.

Here are the iron ore charts for August 14, 2015: Spot weakened (benchmark as unchanged at $56.20).

Brent oil was hammered again Friday night to $48.73.

Another resources sector bites the dust. It’s farewell STO today down another 6% to $6.20 as I write (update: now down 9% at $5.99!): That break of $7 support on the daily chart has proven an excellent trigger.

Here are the iron ore price charts for August 13, 2015: Qingdao up solidly and Tianjin rose 0.7% to $56.20.

Big iron is rebounding today as China devaluation becomes passe.

Just a quick note in passing to observe that if GLEN is still going to buy RIO then it’s going to need an awful lot of debt to add to its awful lot of debt.

Here are the iron ore charts for July 12, 2015: Qingdao flat.

Brent oil managed a 1% rebound last night to $50.23 as I write as good news vied with bad but a big fall in the US dollar proved decisive.

Brent oil has been falling all day after the China yuan fix and is currently trading at $49.38: As such, and perhaps just because, the LNG juniors are burning again and the charts do not look good.

Big iron has been rocked by the Chinese devaluation today with BHP down -4%, RIO down -5.5% and FMG down -7.5%.

Not much fun for Australia.

From Goldies: Iron one exports pulled back in July, down -8% from June’s all-time high. Weaker performance across all metrics delivered an average daily export rate of 416mtpa (vs June 2015 peak of 467mtpa).

Good one, Origin: APLNG has an all-in breakeven somewhere around $12mmBtu.