Commodities Daily

Courtesy of ANZ, find the full report below this excerpt: Newcastle coal front month futures fell slightly. Buying from Australia still appeared to be soft, while rising freight rates exacerbated the pull-back in activity. Instead, competitors appear to be picking up exports, with reports suggesting Q1 2012 coal supply from Colombia up 19% y/y on


Ore hot, coal not

The twin pillars of Australia’s boom, iron ore and coking coal, continue to diverge. Yesterday the iron ore price broke more decisively out of its post crash trading range, up half a percent or so to $148.70. To say the least, this is a finger in the eye for China bears. Here is the spot


Gas glut gloom

Two reports from The Cupboard today put a lot of gloom in the gas Futureboom! The most recent report has Woodside delaying a $40billion LNG plant near Broome, pushing the start date on production back to 2018, albeit because of an “aggressive timetable”: Woodside’s Petroleum’s request to delay a decision on a $40 billion LNG plant at


Commodities Daily

Today’s wrap from ANZ, with the full report below. You can find up to date charts on major commodities, including iron ore prices at our “Morning Macro” daily wrap. Here is today’s prices, with year-to-date performance:   ANZ Commodity Daily 600 100412


Commodities Daily

Today’s wrap from ANZ, here are some excerpts, with the full report below. You can find up to date charts on major commodities, including iron ore prices at our “Morning Macro” daily wrap: Newcastle coal futures declined 1.6% to US$107/t in line with other commodities. Indonesia’s consideration of a 25% coal export tax next year


Commodities Daily

Today’s wrap from ANZ, here are some excerpts, with the full report below. You can find up to date charts on major commodities, including iron ore prices at our “Morning Macro”. Base metals were mixed again, with copper down mildly as disappointment after the US FOMC minutes offset the positive US manufacturing and factory orders


Global steel rebound?

Find below a bullish report on global steel output from ANZ. The ANZ team is a bit reflexively bullish for my tastes and there some rather large questions still hang over Chinese output but there are some useful charts in this note. Happy reading. Anz Hifi Steel Mar12


Commodities Daily

Today’s wrap from ANZ, here are some excerpts, with the full report below: Crude benchmarks declined, with US prices falling to the lowest levels since mid-February and Brent prices at a two week low. Recent talks by US and European officials over a potential release of strategic stockpiles added to Saudi Arabian Oil Minister’s recent rhetoric against


The miracle commodity saves!

You are perhaps bemused that I follow the iron ore price with such regularity but to me it is bizarre that its price movements are not front page news every day. To be frank, you could scrap the business pages of every paper and simply print the iron ore price and you’d get a better


Bulk strength or bulk trouble?

It’s been a while since I visited iron ore prices. The miracle commodity has been performing well and is one indicator that has been defying a broad range of weakening indicators in China. The overnight price is near the top of its trading range since last year’s fall: That’s now a pretty decent recovering trend


Chart of the Day: pining for wine

I was going to post a more gruesome chart of the flash PMI’s from Europe last night, but Delusional Economics is writing a report on the result, so this chart from The Economist should take its place: It really is a two speed global economy with the USA, China and Russia expanding,  whilst in percentage


Citi weighs in on commodity super cycle debate

Citi has joined the recent debate about whether the commodity super cycle is finished (or nearly so) with an argument in the affirmative. Bulls like to point to the fact that the apparent intensity of use for steel (in terms of kg per capita) for China is still well below some other countries at their peak. However,


Commodity exports to the moon!

By Leith van Onselen The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) released its Resources and Energy Quarterly—March quarter 2012 (report below) yesterday, which provides a bullish outlook for Australian commodity exports. From the press release [my emphasis]: Australia’s resources and energy commodity export earnings are forecast to continue to grow over the medium term


More steel bears

After yesterday’s bombshell from Ian Ashby, President of BHP iron ore, Citi published a report on steel which said that steel-making raw materials are “capped on the upside” because the Chinese porperty sector continues to normalise.  Global crude steel production, they believe, will only grow half the rate of 2011 for this year: We think steel-making


Commodities up in January

The RBA released its monthly Commodity Price Index this afternoon and the “once in a century boom” continues: Preliminary estimates for February indicate that the index rose by 1 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 1 per cent in January (revised). The largest contributors to the rise in February were increases in


NAB’s commodity forecasts

Find attached NAB’s monthly commodity forecasts. She’s a slow old day so this might make some interesting reading. It’s a reasonable enough document though with my own view that China is likely to struggle with a bouncy (though not hard) landing I’ll take the under on most projected prices. Commodity Update M&E – Feb 2012


Ore gets another towelieing

So, as predicted, ore looks vulnerable and continued its weakness last night. The spot prices got whacked another $2.20, down 1.6% to $137.40. We are still some ways above the next chart supports at $130.80, the post rout lows of late last year: Sadly for the miracle commodity, the 12 month swaps, which tend to


Ore looks vulnerable, again

Iron ore has had a nice bounce since the October rout of last year but there are signs that that has run its course and new weakness is appearing across the charts. For a start, the spot price itself has rolled over and is accelerating downwards: Next, a look at the 12 month futures is


Peak oil and growth

Yesterday’s oil production chart prompted some interesting discussion on the economic outlook for a world facing physical limits to energy resource extraction, and the peak of oil production in particular  It is one more important factor to add to the impact of debt dynamics and the political response to recessionary conditions when considering the global


Ore’s not well with iron ore

On the heel’s of the release of the RBA’s paper on the mining boom, and the excellent analysis by The Unconventional Economist, comes a Dow Jones Newswire piece, reposted at The Oz: Global demand growth for iron ore is set to slow in 2012, bringing down average iron ore prices from last year’s record high.


Commodities press Oz equities

Usually when I think of the CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) Index I’m looking at it as part of my toolkit for the Australian Dollar outlook. But I was talking to a few mates over in Perth yesterday and thoughts turned to the relationship between the CRB and the S&P ASX 200. We all have our


La Nina strikes back in 2012

Some fascinating an in-depth research from Forecast: “Keep an Eye on the Baby”. The summary: La Nina returns, and is seen persisting through northern hemisphere spring and maybe summer The impacts are well-known after the disastrous effects of the – albeit more severe – 2011 episode Foodstuff prices could again spike further – agriculture index


Commodity prices fall again in December

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday afternoon released its Index of Commodity Prices for the month of December. According to the release: Preliminary estimates for December indicate that the index fell by 1.0 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after falling by 0.2 per cent in November (revised). The price of gold