Commodities

The Brent oil price was smashed 4% overnight to $42.80 as I write.

Big iron is holding on grimly as Dalian is again under pressure today down half one percent.

From Macquarie comes a nice summary: The dominant influence for market sentiment, China’s property sector, continued to have weak investment data in October.

The mining GFC has claimed another hefty scalp as it marches down the cost curve.

From Fairfax: Rio’s annual payout will be $US4.1 billion ($5.6 billion) this calendar year, while BHP’s costs $US6.6 billion a year.

Here are the iron ore charts for December 1, 2015:    What can I say?

Brent oil sank last night to $44.22.

From your ABC, what Citi described as the Roy Hill “whale” has breached off the cost of the Pilbara: West Australian mining magnate Gina Rinehart is on the cusp of sending her first iron ore shipment to Asia.

From Fairfax: Energy consultant Dr Fereidun Fesharaki expects oil prices to slide to $US35 a barrel by the June quarter of 2016, in contrast to consensus forecasts which point to a gradual recovery from this quarter.

Here it is, in all of its volatile glory: Nov.

From UBS: Diversifieds: All else equal, our BHP & RIO earnings estimates for CY 16 would be 80% and 51% lower, respectively, under a spot scenario.

In a note on Friday Capital Economics reassured investors that although iron ore is going to drop below $40 it won’t stay there for very long as supply closes.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 30, 2015: Tianjin benchmark fell 1.6% to a new post-GFC low of $42.80.

The Brent oil price fell to $44.53 overnight as the world expects OPEC to do nothing at its forthcoming meeting.

The news flow today is not much fun for commodities.

Big iron is sinking fast.

From Gotti: The BHP accounts reveal that the BHP carrying value of its Samarco shares is about $US1bn.

Readers will know that the working assumption behind the MB outlook for global growth is that the commodities bust will continue as China slows, supply side expansions continue and the US dollar bull market stampedes ahead.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 27, 2015: The Tianjin benchmark iron ore price fell 10 cents to $43.50.

The Brent oil price faded on Friday night as a rampant US dollar broke through the ton on the index: It is just 30 pips from breaking out and making a run for the 2002 peak at 120.

Big iron is taking a breather today in its great decline but it does not look strong.

From Fairfax: JPMorgan is the first of the analysts covered by Bloomberg to capitulate from the optimistic hold and buy ratings since questions about the company’s ability to maintain its progressive dividend policy emerged amid sharp falls in its share price this year, made worse by the tailings dam disaster at its joint venture mine in Brazil.