Commodities

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Bulk weakness spreads

Australia’s balance of trade is getting beaten up again. Two of out three bulk exports are still sliding. Iron ore 12 month swaps are accelerating downwards: The spot price is following: China steel prices have also rolled over. Rebar: And hot rolled: Thermal coal fell too: Coking coal appears to be stable. The aggregate value

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Where does all of that iron ore go?

ANZ has produced a useful note on the outlook for iron ore. Regular readers will recognise plenty of conventional wisdom at work here, with the basic argument being that ongoing modest growth in Chinese demand and the cost curve for supply will support prices in the $120 to $160 range. That’s fair enough if more

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Are bulk commodities in a bear market?

If you’ve read MacroBusiness Morning, you’ll know that iron ore prices fell last night. In the past couple of weeks, the ore price has retraced modestly some 4.4% to $142.70. I’ve asked The Prince to give me a technical take on the bulks and the news is not all that great. First iron ore: There

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Shale gas hype: Subprime 2.0

The following is by Yves Smith and is cross-posted from Naked Capitalism. It has some important implications for Australia’s own gas boom, not all of them bad.  If my RSS reader is any guide, most of the press about shale gas has focused on two issues. First, shale gas is in considerable supply, cheap to produce, and

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RBA commodity prices up a tad in April

From the RBA this afternoon: Preliminary estimates for April indicate that the index fell by 1.6 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 0.5 per cent in March (revised). The largest contributors to the fall in April were decreases in the prices of coal, oil, gold and aluminium. In

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An African iron ore deluge

PhD candidate Luke Hurst of the ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy has produced new research on the potential impacts of African iron ore on the sea-born iron ore price. I recommend everyone read this paper (find it at the end). It’s solidly argued and a very readable summary of the various arguments put forward

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Chart of the Day: nuclear power

Today’s chart comes from Reuters and shows the rapid deceleration in nuclear power generation in Japan as the aftermath of the Fukushima tragedy: For reference, here is worldwide electricity production, as reported by the World Nuclear Association, with the following stats: There are now over 440 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries, with

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Commodities Daily

Courtesy of ANZ – find the full report below the excerpt: Newcastle coal front month futures slipped with activity quieter than usual, as most market participants attend China’s CoalTrans (CT). In one presentation, BHP said China’s coking coal demand is expected to remain resilient to 2025, supported by capital and infrastructure spending in its steel

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Commodities Daily

Courtesy of ANZ, find the full report below this excerpt: Newcastle coal front month futures fell slightly. Buying from Australia still appeared to be soft, while rising freight rates exacerbated the pull-back in activity. Instead, competitors appear to be picking up exports, with reports suggesting Q1 2012 coal supply from Colombia up 19% y/y on

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Ore hot, coal not

The twin pillars of Australia’s boom, iron ore and coking coal, continue to diverge. Yesterday the iron ore price broke more decisively out of its post crash trading range, up half a percent or so to $148.70. To say the least, this is a finger in the eye for China bears. Here is the spot

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Gas glut gloom

Two reports from The Cupboard today put a lot of gloom in the gas Futureboom! The most recent report has Woodside delaying a $40billion LNG plant near Broome, pushing the start date on production back to 2018, albeit because of an “aggressive timetable”: Woodside’s Petroleum’s request to delay a decision on a $40 billion LNG plant at

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Commodities Daily

Today’s wrap from ANZ, with the full report below. You can find up to date charts on major commodities, including iron ore prices at our “Morning Macro” daily wrap. Here is today’s prices, with year-to-date performance:   ANZ Commodity Daily 600 100412

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Commodities Daily

Today’s wrap from ANZ, here are some excerpts, with the full report below. You can find up to date charts on major commodities, including iron ore prices at our “Morning Macro” daily wrap: Newcastle coal futures declined 1.6% to US$107/t in line with other commodities. Indonesia’s consideration of a 25% coal export tax next year

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Commodities Daily

Today’s wrap from ANZ, here are some excerpts, with the full report below. You can find up to date charts on major commodities, including iron ore prices at our “Morning Macro”. Base metals were mixed again, with copper down mildly as disappointment after the US FOMC minutes offset the positive US manufacturing and factory orders

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Global steel rebound?

Find below a bullish report on global steel output from ANZ. The ANZ team is a bit reflexively bullish for my tastes and there some rather large questions still hang over Chinese output but there are some useful charts in this note. Happy reading. Anz Hifi Steel Mar12

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Commodities Daily

Today’s wrap from ANZ, here are some excerpts, with the full report below: Crude benchmarks declined, with US prices falling to the lowest levels since mid-February and Brent prices at a two week low. Recent talks by US and European officials over a potential release of strategic stockpiles added to Saudi Arabian Oil Minister’s recent rhetoric against