From the AFR this morning the biggest job in Australian business has changed hands: BHP Billiton has appointed non-ferrous division head Andrew Mackenzie as its new chief executive, replacing Marius Kloppers as of May 10. The move comes after BHP reported the lowest interim underlying profits since 2005, but is unrelated to the fall in
Find below the iron ore price complex chart for February 19, 2013: Spot definitely wants a new high. Rebar was strong too by swaps are still stuck as rebar futures fell again. There really is no mystery to why the iron ore spot price has detached from other fundamentals. The FT today makes it plain: The
So, iron ore returns from holidays refreshed and ready to roll – higher. Here is the price complex chart for February 18, 2013: And the chart: So a new high in rebar spot for the move despite sharp falls in rebar futures across the curve (which had run on ahead). Iron swaps were unmoved but
Newcastle thermal coal prices fell slightly. The strike at Colombia’s Cerrejon mine continued into its second week with a resolution between Cerrejon, the Government and miners yet to be reached. Uncertainty over the strike, impacting about 30 million tonnes of thermal coal exports into the seaborne market, may have contributed to choppy trading over the past week. Meanwhile, coking coal spot
Still little movement in the iron ore price complex for February 15, 2013, a little fall in 12 month swaps is all: Interesting news this morning from Gina Reinhart’s banner iron ore project, the $10 billion or so Roy Hill. From the AFR: Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill iron ore project no longer needs the 1700
No movement yesterday in the iron ore complex. The big news today is Rio’s earnings release (find it below) which confirms that the company is a ragingly successful iron ore company buried under a huge pile of…overmatter…to make it appear diversified and unattractive to suiters. The iron ore division contributed 44% of group revenue but…wait
Again limited movement in iron ore overnight with spot and steel prices stuck. 12 month swaps put on a couple of bucks in anticipation of a positive return from the Chinese New Year break.
By Leith van Onselen It seems the hits just keep on coming for Australian coal exports. On Friday, I reported that the coal market could soon be facing hard times from growing global supplies and lower demand from China. Now, Bloomberg has reported that India plans to build a 327 kilometre rail network that would
Got some chart issues today, but there was no movement in any key price with the Chinese market closed:
By Leith van Onselen In September last year, The Australian newspaper revealed that Japan was attempting to sever oil-linked pricing for Japanese liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Oil-linked pricing for Japanese LNG imports began in the 1960s. The gas price was linked to the price of oil because it was the substitute for Japanese power
Find below the iron ore price complex table for February 8, 2013: And the chart: Chinese bulk shipping rates have rolled over for Chinese New Year even if the miracle commodity has not: My spread charts continue to howl of a market where fundamentals do not match current prices. Spot to swap ratios are still
By Leith van Onselen Earlier this week, I prognosticated that Australian coal exports could soon be facing hard times due to: Increased competition from US coal exports, due to domestic coal-to-gas switching arising from the US shale gas boom; and A shift away from coal fired electricity generation in China due to rising pollution concerns.
Find below the iron ore price complex chart for February 7, 2013: And the chart: And rebar futures, which were flat. The good run in long rebar futures and spooky strength of spot appears to have finally shoved iron ore futures through resistance. The longer the spot price remains high, the more this will happen,
Here is the iron ore price chart for February 6, 2013: And the chart: Yesterday’s rebar futures market was soft: Yet that still couldn’t stop spot ore. Nor could the big fall in Port Hedland shipments for January: Data…phewy. The spot market wants a new high! No fresh news overnight but I did miss this
Find below the iron ore complex price table for February 5, 2013: Not much to add except to say that despite a flat spot price, rebar futures were again active. The theme of the day was short weakness versus long strength, which to my mind is back-to-front: The news today supports that view, with Westpac’s
Find below the iron ore price complex table for February 4, 2103: And the chart: Iron ore spot seems fatally attracted to a new high. And why not? Although my rebar spot chart is yet to catch up, futures piled it on again: And last week’s inventory data is out and shows an accelerating slide
From late Friday: Preliminary estimates for January indicate that the index rose by 2.6 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 3.4 per cent in December (revised). The largest contributor to the rise in January was the increase in the price of iron ore, while the prices of base metals and rural commodities
Here is the iron ore price table for February 1, 2013: And chart: So, no sooner have swaps broken out than they’ve scuttled back under cover. No movement in Chinese steel prices. But the futures market was different with rebar futures piling it on again: My spread charts still look seriously sick. Spot to swap
Find below the iron ore price table for January 31, 2013: And the chart: So, once again defying the doomsayers, 12 month swaps for the miracle commodity have broken out to a new high for the move and put a rocket under spot. More support was found in rebar futures (though no move in spot),
Find below the iron ore complex price table for January 30, 2013: And the chart: 12 month swaps broke out to a new high, just, and not yet decisive. The ANZ view, however, is for short term weakness: Despite a 6% fall iron ore prices in the past three weeks, we think the ensuing Chinese holiday
Here is the iron ore price complex table for January 30, 2013: And the chart:
Courtesy of ANZ: April Newc coal prices rose USD1.50 to USD94.75/t, while spot coking coal traded at over USD167/t after flooding in Queensland’s coalfields. The Bowen Basin was hit by between 200 and 400 millimetres of rain, but the disruptions are not as widespread as the “Big Wet” of 2011. Even so it may take several weeks for operations to
Here is the iron ore price table for January 26, 2013: And the chart: Plus Chinese steel prices: The only worthwhile point is that 12m swaps again retreated from resistance. Unless or until it can move through the mid $125s, the orientation for the spot price will most likey be lower.
Find below the iron ore price table for January 25, 2003: And the chart: Steady recovery in spot and swap still balking at resistance. This has left my spread charts just as broken. Spot to swap signaling tension between the short and long term view: And spot to rebar signaling a complete disconnect between ore
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 764 250113.pdf
Atlas iron delivered its December quarter production this morning more expansion is in the offing: Another 12 million tonnes of capacity by year end. atlas.pdf
Find below the iron ore complex price chart for 24 January, 2013: And the chart: Another slow day on the hustings with swap balking at its former high and spot still showing strength, apparently on Pilbara weather and some strength in Baosteel contract prices. In news, today’s point of interest is the shorts of David
Here are the highlights of FMG’s December quarter production report: By year end that is another 100 million tonnes online versus two years earlier, all of India’s fading capacity available from just one firm. When I wrote my 2013 forecast piece I was not aware that FMH had renewed its Kings push. Combined with Rio
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 763 240113.pdf by Belinda Winkelman
Here is the iron ore price table for January 23, 2013: And the iron ore price chart: Of note is the push by 12 month swaps towards a new high for the move, just 30 cents shy. Such would signal the recent correction over. In news today, there is a red hot investigative story from
