Commodities

From UBS: Diversifieds: All else equal, our BHP & RIO earnings estimates for CY 16 would be 80% and 51% lower, respectively, under a spot scenario.

In a note on Friday Capital Economics reassured investors that although iron ore is going to drop below $40 it won’t stay there for very long as supply closes.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 30, 2015: Tianjin benchmark fell 1.6% to a new post-GFC low of $42.80.

The Brent oil price fell to $44.53 overnight as the world expects OPEC to do nothing at its forthcoming meeting.

The news flow today is not much fun for commodities.

Big iron is sinking fast.

From Gotti: The BHP accounts reveal that the BHP carrying value of its Samarco shares is about $US1bn.

Readers will know that the working assumption behind the MB outlook for global growth is that the commodities bust will continue as China slows, supply side expansions continue and the US dollar bull market stampedes ahead.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 27, 2015: The Tianjin benchmark iron ore price fell 10 cents to $43.50.

The Brent oil price faded on Friday night as a rampant US dollar broke through the ton on the index: It is just 30 pips from breaking out and making a run for the 2002 peak at 120.

Big iron is taking a breather today in its great decline but it does not look strong.

From Fairfax: JPMorgan is the first of the analysts covered by Bloomberg to capitulate from the optimistic hold and buy ratings since questions about the company’s ability to maintain its progressive dividend policy emerged amid sharp falls in its share price this year, made worse by the tailings dam disaster at its joint venture mine in Brazil.

The Brent oil price sank to $45.62 overnight on not much.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 26, 2015: OK, so spot stable with Tianjin benchmark up 20 cents to $43.60, paper flat tending up and rebar down.

Don’t blink!

From Bloomie: The three LNG projects on the island, about twice as big as Martha’s Vineyard, occupy about 2 percent of the land area on its southwestern tip, a couple of miles from the central Queensland port town of Gladstone.

I began this year by forecasting that 2015 would be defined much more by carnage in big miners rather than small which were last year’s story.

From Macquarie: In light of recent downward moves in the US$ gold price, the prospect of a US interest rate rise in December and the potential for a ‘normalisation’ of interest rates throughout 2016, we stress test our mid and small cap gold coverage universe.

The spruik is about to begin for an imminent rebound in iron ore prices.

The Australian press is falling over itself to defend doomed miners.

Here are the iron ore charts for November 25, 2015: Benchmark spot was unchanged at $43.40.

The Brent oil price fell back to $45.78 last night as Syrian tensions eased and the US stock build continued.

From Goldman: Metals prices have declined by 12%-17% since late October.