Here is the iron ore price complex table for January 30, 2013: And the chart:
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Daily iron ore price update
Primary Section
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Coking coal up on the QLD floods
Courtesy of ANZ: April Newc coal prices rose USD1.50 to USD94.75/t, while spot coking coal traded at over USD167/t after flooding in Queensland’s coalfields. The Bowen Basin was hit by between 200 and 400 millimetres of rain, but the disruptions are not as widespread as the “Big Wet” of 2011. Even so it may take several weeks for operations to
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Daily iron ore price update
Here is the iron ore price table for January 26, 2013: And the chart: Plus Chinese steel prices: The only worthwhile point is that 12m swaps again retreated from resistance. Unless or until it can move through the mid $125s, the orientation for the spot price will most likey be lower.
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Daily iron ore update (railways bonanza?)
Find below the iron ore price table for January 25, 2003: And the chart: Steady recovery in spot and swap still balking at resistance. This has left my spread charts just as broken. Spot to swap signaling tension between the short and long term view: And spot to rebar signaling a complete disconnect between ore
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Commodities Daily
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 764 250113.pdf
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Atlas trickles into the iron ore flood
Atlas iron delivered its December quarter production this morning more expansion is in the offing: Another 12 million tonnes of capacity by year end. atlas.pdf
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Daily iron ore price update (Einhorn’s shorts)
Find below the iron ore complex price chart for 24 January, 2013: And the chart: Another slow day on the hustings with swap balking at its former high and spot still showing strength, apparently on Pilbara weather and some strength in Baosteel contract prices. In news, today’s point of interest is the shorts of David
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Fortescue’s iron ore deluge set to flow
Here are the highlights of FMG’s December quarter production report: By year end that is another 100 million tonnes online versus two years earlier, all of India’s fading capacity available from just one firm. When I wrote my 2013 forecast piece I was not aware that FMH had renewed its Kings push. Combined with Rio
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Commodities daily
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 763 240113.pdf by Belinda Winkelman
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Daily iron ore price update (speculators racket?)
Here is the iron ore price table for January 23, 2013: And the iron ore price chart: Of note is the push by 12 month swaps towards a new high for the move, just 30 cents shy. Such would signal the recent correction over. In news today, there is a red hot investigative story from
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BHP beats on iron ore production growth
From the AFR: BHP Billiton is on track to deliver an average of 10 per cent annual volume growth to the end of the 2014 financial year after reporting strong production in the December quarter. The miner beat expectations for iron ore production in the December quarter by more than 1 million tonnes, with Pilbara
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Daily iron ore price update (world steel growth 2012)
Find below the iron ore complex price table for January 22, 2013: And the chart: Not much to report, clearly. The big news overnight was the release of December world steel production figures and thus for the year as well: World crude steel production reached 1,548 megatonnes (Mt) for the year 2012, up by 1.2%
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Ahem…there is no gas “market”
Nor is there a gas debate. Our national media exists on a diet of quotes from vested interests. Yesterday the AFR offered a nice case in point. First running a piece on how Australian manufacturing is going to get killed by paying Japan-level prices for gas based upon quotes from the CEO of Brickworks. Then
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Daily iron ore price update (more support)
Find below the iron ore price complex table for January 21, 2013: And the chart: The big news overnight is that Indian ore continues to slide down the top exporters list. From Reuters: South Africa overtook India to become China’s third-biggest iron ore supplier in 2012, while Australia strengthened its dominant position as the major
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Everybody hates the iron ore rally
Following in my footsteps, the AFR has a good piece today from Deutsche’s Adam Boyton on the both the importance and price of iron ore: …if iron ore prices were to hold at the $US158 a tonne level seen a little over a week ago, interest rates could end the year higher than they are now
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Daily iron ore price update (hoard shrinks again)
Find below the iron price complex price chart for January 18, 2013: And the price chart: My view of the Chinese data dump on Friday was that it was bearish for iron ore, given the failure of fixed-asset investment to push upwards: The AUD agreed, down sharply from the release right through Friday’s northern hemisphere
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Daily iron ore price update (Rio write-off)
Find below the iron ore price table for January 17, 2013: Not much to add on a quiet day, except to note that 12 month swaps are doggedly hanging on to the $120 support price: This bodes well for my $130+ first half price forecast. But onto the news of the day that matters. Rio
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Daily iron ore price update (look out beloooow)
Here is the iron ore price table for January 16, 2013: And it is farewell froth time: So, clearly the Chinese restock is done for now. Swaps are holding the line at the $120 support and I expect this correction could take us all the way back into the $130s, with ongoing repairs to my
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Daily iron ore price update (correction goes on)
Here is the iron ore price table for January 15, 2013: And the chart: Nothing startling here as the correction from recent highs continues. The bull trap thesis got a boost with swap punching back through its $120 support: Of greater concern, however, was the softening of rebar and billet prices which are struggling to
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Daily iron ore price update (swap support)
Here is the iron ore price table for January 14th, 2013: And today’s chart: Not much to add after yesterday’s epic, except to say that 12m swap has bounced nicely off its $120 support level: Mildly bullish but I’d be surprised if the short correction for spot is over already.
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Australia the biggest loser to US LNG exports
By Leith van Onselen Back in November, I warned about the potential threat to Australian coal and gas exports from the burgeoning shale gas boom in the US: …the exploitation of shale gas in the US has seen significant coal to gas switching in power. As a result, surplus US coal is being redirected into
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Daily iron ore price update (2013 forecasts)
Hello dear reader and welcome back to us both! And so, to the topic at hand, the miracle commodity and its ripping rally. Here’s how I finished 2012: So, is it sustainable? My guess is it’s a bull trap but I have no idea. As I wrote last week after the breakout, when a market
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Daily iron ore price update (Xmas rocket)
Find above the iron ore price complex chart for December 17, 2012. This will be my last post of the year, returning January 14th. Here is the spot/swap price chart: So, it’s a Christmas gift for Australia with iron ore surging to new post-bust highs. If the price can hold at these levels for three
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Commodities daily
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 761 141212
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Daily iron ore price (more Chinese stimulus?)
Find above the iron ore price complex table for December 13, 2012. As I said the other day, once free and twirling who knows where it ends? All I can do is point again to my spread charts, which are screaming over-bought. Spot/rebar: And spot/swap: For these spreads to make sense in terms of recent
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BREE downgrades coking, thermal coal
Courtesy of ANZ: Thermal coal prices continued to decline, while iron ore and coking coal prices increased slightly. Some of the steam has been removed from bulk markets, as participants wait on the sidelines for announcements from China’s new government during the Central Economic Work Meetings. Iron ore and coking coal markets appear to be supported by reports that Baosteel will
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Daily iron ore update (a cool BREEze)
Find above the iron ore price complex table for December 12, 2012. Stability but for how long? While I no longer put much faith in it, yesterday the Baltic Dry tanked 8% almost exclusively on tumbling capesize (used for the bulks) rates, which is a bit of a eye-opener: In other news, yesterday BREE upgraded
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BHP abandons Browse
From the AFR: BHP Billiton has exited the Woodside Petroleum-led Browse liquefied natural gas venture, inking an expensive $US1.63 billion deal to sell its stake to Chinese oil giant PetroChina and further shaking up the troubled venture. The deal is the third major overhaul in ownership stakes this year in Browse LNG, which is struggling
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Commodities daily
Courtesy of ANZ. ANZ Commodity Daily 759 121212
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Daily iron ore price update (twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!)
Find above the iron ore price complex chart for December 11, 2012. Here is the ore chart: And steel chart: Pretty clearly, spot iron ore has broken free of fundamentals, associated prices and all sense, twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom! My spread charts are now registering dangerous over-stretch for this price range. Swap versus spot: