Commodities

This is fun.

As China’s property sector continues to deteriorate with each passing day, reports of renewed stimulus for the sector emerge every few months from the Chinese press or policymakers.

Markets are always right.

RIO’s treason mine has been brought forward again. Pilbara iron ore achieved its highest Q2 production since 2018, recovering well from Q1 extreme weather impacts. Simandou first shipment accelerated to around November 2025, with 0.5 to 1.0 Mt of shipments expected in 2025 (SimFer scope from Blocks 3 & 4).

The ferrous complex is looking toppy.

Does anybody recall “Pig Iron Bob”.

Or is that behind?

Bloomberg is out this week talking about the “once-in-a-generation trade” in the copper market: The Aug.

Yawn.

Markets are so fun sometimes.

Chinese inflation is sinking again. The CPI is stalled while the PPI gallops backwards. CPI: +0.1% yoy (+1.9% mom annualised*) in June vs. GS: -0.1% yoy, Bloomberg consensus: -0.1% yoy; May: -0.1% yoy (+0.5% mom annualised*). Food: -0.3% yoy in June (+6.2% mom annualised*) vs.

Ferrous markets are hoping against hope!

The ferrous market is bifurcating as traders wonder about the steel ouput cut.

The ferrous market is not a strong believer in Chinese steel production cuts so far.

Stocks only go up is back.

Ferrous lifted again Friday.

In China’s meteoric rise as an industrial power, that would see it become “The World’s Factory”, it has increasingly relied on imports of raw materials, particularly from Australia.

As I have noted for many years, managing money successfully in Australia is as stupid as the structure of the underlying economy.

This is going to be a great short.

DXY is falling, while Chinese PMIs are improving, but iron ore is moribund.

There’s a nice little head and shoulders bottom on iron ore futures that I hope runs for a bit on the broadening melt-up.

I love iron ore sometimes.

As the risks of a downward glide path for elements of China’s industrial economy continues to become clear, the risks for Australia’s economy and in particular state and federal Treasury outlooks are becoming increasingly apparent.

The ferrous market does not look well to me.

The ferrous complex is hardly inspiring confidence.