China Economy

From Deutsche: Our thesis over the last few years has basically been that the global financial system/economic fundamentals are so bad that its good for financial assets given it forces central banks into extraordinary stimulus and for them to continue to buy assets in never before seen volumes.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks Centaline says home sales through September 27 were up a very slight 0.43% in its 54-city survey, while CREIS reports home prices increase 0.28% in its 100-city survey.

China has released its official PMI and it showed that things are not at least getting worse any faster, coming in at 49.8.

From Capital Economics: The People’s Bank today published its three quarterly surveys – of 20,000 urban households (depositors) with bank accounts, 5,000 businesses and 3,100 banks.

From Westpac: The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator increased 1.7pts from 116.5 in August to 118.2 in September.

With every investment bank and his dog expecting an H2 rebound in Chinese growth (for no apparent reason given the credit rebound has been literally Shanghaied by the stock market bail out), it is interesting to note a Chinese investment banks that expecting further deceleration instead.

From Citi’s Willem Buiter’s: Is China Leading the World into Recession?

From Bloomberg: China is on a path similar to the one that preceded Japan’s lost decade in the 1990s as the country’s debt level grows twice as fast as its economy, according to Jim Chanos, the hedge fund manager who predicted the 2001 collapse of Enron Corp.

The Caixin Flash PMI is out at 47 versus 47.5 expected and 47.3 last month.

There were several reasons for the overnight wipe out in miners but they add up to one thing in the end.

The abyss into which Australia’s freshly minted resources economy is digging has never been more clear than today.

From Barclays: An accurate picture of the scale of capital outflows along with new growth trend is crucial to understanding the extent of CNY depreciation needed and/or the sustainability of the market interventions/controls.

MB readers have been enjoying the knowledge that the Chinese property recovery, such as it is, is weak and bifurcated, as well as a largely useful economic figment that will not boost economic activity and commodity prices mush.

From Mac Bank: Cement prices are less volatile than steel but correlate strongly: Steel of course leads iron ore.

China’s official 70 city house price data for August is out and shows more recovery with a 0.3% month-on-month rise: The rate of appreciation is still slow and may be slowing but it’s too early to say.

From Capital Economics: China’s statistics bureau last week announced changes to how its GDP figures are compiled.

The great Chinese macro bind of being unable to both stimulate local growth and to hold its currency peg has never been clearer than today.

And so the MB outlook spreads, from Citi’s Willem Buiter: A global recession starting in 2016, led by China is now our Global Economics team’s main scenario.

From Andrew Collier of Orient Capital Research via BeyondBrics: Some of the excess construction in Sichuan’s rural areas can be laid at the feet of disgraced former Chongqing Party Secretary, Bo Xilai, who was removed from office under a cloud in 2012.