China Economy

Bloomberg is reporting that the following story from the People’s Daily is spooking markets, forgive the Chinglish: 　　This year is the decisive stage of building a moderately prosperous society and “Thirteen Five” the first year, but also to promote crucial year for the supply-side structural reforms.

From Deutsche: Bank credit growth and M2 growth used to track each other quite well in China.

From Investing in Chinese Stocks: The private economy is slowing and the recent spike in investment is coming from SOEs and local governments. The State Council has noticed and has sent out investigation teams (dubbed a “rare signal” by the media) to find why private investment has slumped.

From Investing in Chinese Stocks.

China has seen the light!

Some recovery we’ve got going in China!

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Investing in Chinese Stocks. Beijing homebuyers were paying several thousand yuan this year to cut in line at the property registry: Frantic Flippers Cause Reservation Number Prices to Double in March, a phenomena that was repeated in other cities (to varying degrees based on local regulations governing the process).

From Bernstein: The response to the crisis of 2014/2015 appears to be greater than the response to the financial crisis of 2008/9.

From Westpac: • The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator edged 0.3pts lower to 117.8 in April from 118.1 in March.

Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks: A day earlier this news leaked: PBoC Asks Banks To Pare Back Lending: Caixin Well-respected Chinese financial magazine Caixin reported this afternoon that the PBoC is now asking its banks to pare back lending this month.

Cross posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks N&O: China tells banks to lend to expand steel exports Regulators told Chinese banks on Thursday to finance steel exports to help reduce a supply glut in a move that could worsen trade tensions with Europe and the United States.

China Can’t Cut Interest Rates, RRR Effect Limited, Temporary Rebound It’s a pessimistic forecast, but GDP will still grow 6.7 percent for the year, so there’s that.

From Macquarie:  Our latest China copper survey pointed to a better demand picture: Orders from downstream industries increased clearly for both copper fabricators and traders, led by the power and white goods sector, fabricators lifted their capacity utilisation rate and sentiment over the industry chain remains positive.

From Bloomberg: Billionaire investor George Soros said China’s debt-fueled economy resembles the U.S.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Macquarie: Macquarie’s China economist, Larry Hu, notes that nominal GDP growth accelerated to 7.2% YoY in 1Q16 from 6.0% in 4Q15, boding well for corporate earnings and consumption growth…In Larry’s view, there are three reasons why the rebound should be considered temporary.

It’s on like Donkey Kong in Chinese property.

Readers will recall that MB has been skeptical that China would be able to resuscitate its construction boom given three-quarters of it is based in third and fourth tier cities where house prices are still flat and falling owing to huge oversupply.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

China has released its first quarter GDP and partials and the news is that China has switched its industrial and credit machine to “on”.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.