China Economy

12

UBS: Chinese rebound is a write-off

Via UBS: Jan-Feb activities plummeted, Q1 likely much weaker Jan-Feb economic activities were severely impacted by COVID-19 outbreak and related nationwide shutdowns. Industrial production declined by 13.5% y/y and some services have been hit hard as well. Work resumption is picking up but activities are not fully back to normal in March (see China Daily

6

China to hit 6% growth target no worries (lol)

Rather, to lie about hitting it, via Global Times: Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), media have expressed concern over the Chinese economy. COVID-19 may impact the domestic economy, but its fundamentals will remain unchanged. The engines that drive the domestic economy are just as powerful before the outbreak. The country will not

30

Chinese data destroyed

So bad that the market has ignored it. Industrial production -13.5%, fixed asset investment -24.5% and retail -20.5%: The all-important fixed-asset investment collpased wall-to-wall: Real estate sales led the decline: Starts halved: Floor area under construciton is still up year to date but fell shaply to 2.9%: Finally, wait for it, steel output boomed: Leading

7

Li Keqiang hoses stimulus hopes

Chinese PM Li Keqiang yesterday: “At the moment we are responding to the impact of the epidemic. We have issued a lot of temporary emergency measures in a timely manner, but these measures are phased measures.” Premier Li Keqiang said at the executive meeting of the State Council on March 10 , “the next step is to achieve economic recovery and work

4

Chinese property developers shaken out

Here’s the problem: And here’s the outcome, at Bloomie: In the first two months of this year, around 105 real estate firms issued bankruptcy filing statements, after almost 500 collapses in 2019, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “A vast number of mid- to small-sized developers will face a choice no one wants to make —

12

Chinese recovery stalls

Charts from Capital Economics: Not exactly lighting it up for thr past few days. Links from Sinocism: China’s Inflation Slows as Coronavirus Locks Down Economy – Bloomberg Core consumer prices rose 1% in February from a year ago, the slowest pace since June 2010, and factory prices returned to deflation, with the producer price index

7

China is waking up very slowly

The charts from Capital Economics: The worst chart may be the last one. It suggests that large swathes of Chinese migrant workers remain bunkered, meaning the supply side shock is nowhere near over. And the external shock is yet to come. China has roughly 2% of GDP ready to go for H2 simulus but it’ll

4

Chinese firms flick switch on fake power consumption

Via Caixin: Local companies and officials are fraudulently boosting electricity consumption and other metrics in order to meet tough new back-to-work targets as the spread of Covid-19 in China wanes, a Caixin investigation has found. As new coronavirus cases in China slowed in recent weeks, local governments in less-affected regions pushed companies and factories to

3

Caixin China services PMI halves

Via Caixin: February PMI data signalled the first reduction in business activity across China’s service sector on record due to restrictions implemented to contain the recent coronavirus outbreak. Firms across all sectors reported on the damaging effect that the virus was having on the economy via company closures and travel restrictions, with total new orders

29

Angry China applies virus travel bans

Yeh, via the BBC: Travellers from countries with severe coronavirus outbreaks who arrive in some parts of China will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine, state media say. Travellers from the virus hotspots of South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy arriving in the capital will have to be isolated, a Beijing official has said. I

11

Steadily China awakes

More green shoots today:   Slowly but surely. Next comes the external shock. Links from Sinocism: 1. The outbreak China’s crisis wanes as epidemic takes hold in US, elsewhere – AP The health ministry announced just 125 new cases detected over the past 24 hours, China’s lowest number since Jan. 20. Another 31 deaths were

5

Green shoots in Chinese traffic!

More than green shoots. Normalcy: The rest of the big cities are the same. But public transport remains very subdued: Meanwhile, the number of Metro passengers was also on the rise, with 1.1 million people transported by 9am, 334,000 more than Monday last week, although still 63 percent less than on working Mondays before the

29

Coronavirus explodes worldwide

The latest charts show clearly that pandemic is loosed. China is OK: But everyone else is now stuffed: With cases doubling every three days: Korea is leading the testing push and so comes out way ahead in per capita terms. This makes everyone else a liar: It is still a winter virus so should burn

24

Dog catches coronavirus

Via Bloomie: The pet dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been found to have a “low level” of the virus, the Hong Kong government said early Friday. The dog tested “weak positive” for the coronavirus, the city’s agricultural and fisheries department said in a statement, without giving further details. Officials will carry out

12

COVID-19 body count update

Bejing has released its latest: At 04:00 on February 27, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 327 new confirmed cases and 44 new deaths (41 in Hubei, 2 in Beijing, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps 1 Cases), newly added 452 suspected cases. On the same day, 3,622

6

The Chinese economy is barely moving still

Traffic congestion shows some life: But broader activity is still very subdued: AFR has an ugly anecdote: The struggle Beijing faces in getting China back to work is obvious as soon as you drive out of central Shanghai. The eight-lane motorways are empty. The shopping outlets abandoned, and our taxi glides through rows of unmanned

14

COVID-19 Daily data dump

First, the news from China: At 04:00 on February 26, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 433 new confirmed cases and 29 new deaths (26 in Hubei and 1 in Beijing, Heilongjiang, and Henan). 508 new suspected cases were added. On the same day, 2,750 new cases

1

Chinese activity lifts a little

First the Tom Tom stats for the big five: It must remembered that traffic congestion is not a linear indicator. You can take out 20% of cars and cure 100% of traffic. So this rebound is probably a little better than it looks. That said, car numbers are likely to be up given who would

6

China coronavirus body count down to “5”

Fresh from Beijing: At 04:00 on February 25, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 406 new confirmed cases, 52 new deaths (52 in Hubei), and 439 new suspected cases. On the same day, 2,422 cases were discharged and cured, 14 573 were close contacts of medical observation, and