China Economy


China keeps jackboot on lending

HSBC with the note: Slower total social financing (TSF) growth, mainly due to a higher base last year, has likely led to tightened monetary conditions; but the structure of lending is improving with still robust mid-and long-term lending to support the real economy. We expect outstanding RMB lending to stay steady at 12.3% y-o-y in


China PMIs stable

Via China’s NBS: In May , China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 51.0% , slightly lower than 0.1 percentage point last month , and continued to be above the threshold. The manufacturing industry maintained steady expansion. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was 51.8% and 51.1% , respectively , up 0.1 and 0.8 percentage


Goldman: Buy commodities, China irrelevant

Because this time “it’s different”. Last night witnessed some aggressive rebounds in commodity prices thanks, in part, to a new Goldman note assuaging rising concerns for commodity prices emanating from the imminent Chinese slowdown. There are some days when Wall Street really does take the cake. Buy the China led dip. The bullish commodity thesis


More signs China is slowing fast

Credit tightening and regulation across property sectors taking effect. Mizuho with the note. Exports still booming: But domestic demand faltering as property and car sales retrench: Yields falling: Spreads widening in junk: Bloomberg has a few more indicators: Prepare to plunge to a stone-cold 1 in property sectors and a lukewarm 3-4 for the broader


Goldman: China to keep the pressure on property

The panic about commodity prices has reached a new level of silliness at Bloomberg this morning: Despite Beijing’s best efforts, asset bubbles are forming in China. Home prices are soaring, prompting officials to revive the idea of a national property tax. A surge in raw material prices spurred pledges to increase domestic supply, toughen market oversight, and crack


China targets property sector for deflation

Goldman with a note on how China is targeting the epicentre of global iron ore demand for deflation: Striking a balance between growth and stability. We agree with the chairman of the CBIRC that the property sector is one of the gray rhinos in China. In our China Credit Conundrum published in 2013, we cited


A global deflationary shock is building in China

Societe Generale with the note: The economic recovery in China continued in April but remained uneven. Growth in the industrial sector softened albeit at a still healthy pace, while services failed to strengthen further despite the containment of COVID-19. On the demand side, manufacturing and property investment quickened, but infrastructure investment slowed, probably due to


Chinese growth powers but iron ore air pocket appears

It’s beginning to play out as expected. Chinese headline growth for April was absolutely fine with year-to-date numbers still wildly distorted but falling back to earth roughly in line with expectations. Industrial production was 9.8%, retail sales 17.7% and fixed asset investment at 19.9% from last year’s depressed levels: At first glance, even construction sectors


Daily iron ore price update (China census demographic doom)

The ferrous complex calmed down a little yesterday after Chinese regulatory intervention but oftentimes it takes more than one hammer to hit the iron ore nail so expect further moves. Spot eased. Paper firmed overnight. Steel waltzed straight through: In data new, Brazilian April exports were soft as expected, up only 7.5% over the year.


China is a paper dragon

A terrific note from The Atlantic’s David Frum sums it all up: China was mentioned only four times in Joe Biden’s first address to a joint session of Congress, but it shadowed almost every line of the speech. “We’re in a competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century,” Biden said. His


China taps into the best and worst of the internet

An extraordinary convergence of everything that is good and bad is underway in China’s technology sectors. On the one hand, monopolies are being curtailed to establish a competitive market structure that may be able to deliver the innovation and growth outcomes that China needs in its development phase. On the other hand, the historical power


China grows old before it gets rich

China’s ageing population has long been considered the economy’s number one long-term headwind. The ‘One Child Policy’ implemented in the 1970s and abolished in 2016 was credited with preventing some 400 million births between 1979 to 2010. The policy initially created a demographic structure that was ideal for economic growth, since China had a large


Chinese credit tightening to smash its stocks?

Just how bad is Chinese counter-party risk? Really, really bad can be the only possible answer. After just a few weeks of credit stress, Chinese authorities have folded like a deck of cards on China Huarong Asset Management: The PBOC is considering a $15bn bailout. The PBOC unit will effectively become a new bad bank


China’s demographic time bomb is rigged to blow

Even before COVID, China was facing stiff headwinds from an ageing population. These headwinds stem from the nation’s ‘one child policy’, which came into effect in the early-1970s and was credited with preventing around 400 million births from 1979 to 2010. The ‘one child policy’ initially produced a population pyramid that was optimal to economic growth,


China credit impulse sags

The little China financial crisis we have been tracking shows signs of a little easing as we enter a new week: Huarong bonds recovered some ground Friday after the financial regulator declared liquidity plentiful. While well short of any guarantee, some analysts expected that this is a turning point for the beleaguered debt manager. My


Chinese data misses big, economy slows fast

Lordy, China data is a mess. Base effects have distorted everything. If we look through the fog what we find mostly is a disappointment. First-quarter GDP was only 0.6%, far below the forecast 1.4%. That is disguised by year on year figures which are wonky as anything 18.3%: The internals for the month of March


China’s little finaincal crisis rolls on

Some more updates on the little Chinese financial crisis roiling its bond and equity markets. Analysts had hoped that yesterday would being relief form the PBOC, no such luck: Stocks fell as the PBOC withdrew liquidity as for a fourth straight month: Funding costs in the junk bond market will keep rising, noted ANZ. Meanwhile,


Chinese bond market seizure to smash iron ore?

One of the less well-understood dimensions of Chinese economic restructuring is the travails of its corporate bond market. For a few years now, authorities have been slowly removing the moral hazard that has dominated Chinese debt markets through its development phase. This causes periodic panics in financial markets but it should not. This is an


Chinese credit hits the brakes

New yuan loans were out last night and, as expected, China has hit the brakes. Total social financing came in at 34ootr yuan with banks at 2730tr yuan of that: The pop in shadow credit is receding: The flow of new credit was down by over one-third year over year: The rolling annual smooths that


China singles out real estate for slowing

Over the holiday period, the FT had another confirmation piece of the MB view that China is set to slow, particularly in the most commodity-intensive sector of real estate: PBOC has instructed banks to cut credit availability. Macquarie says concerns about virus-impacted growth are gone and structural reform has resumed. Chinese real estate sales surged


How fast will China slow in 2021?

For some months we have been of the view that Chinese growth will begin to slow materially in second half of this year. We reckon that robust export demand will be enough growth support for China to turn back to structural reform for the domestic economy. We have already seen confirmation of this in tightening


China PMIs rebound

Via China’s NBS: 1. Operation of China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index In March , China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 51.9% , 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month , and the manufacturing industry rebounded. In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 52.7% , 51.6% and 50.4% , respectively , up 0.5 , 2.0 and 2.1 percentage points from the previous month , all of which were higher than the threshold. From the perspective


Chinese growth slowdown baked-in

Great analysis from Nordea: In 2021, China’s growth momentum cools off and the focus of global growth will temporarily move to other countries, which should be a negative factor for the CNY. In a longer horizon, China’s ambition continues to be high. China’s main political event of thee year, the National People’s Congress, came to