China Economy


The Chinese recovery is dreadful

Why is anybody excited about it? It is terrible and a very poor leading indicator for everyone else coming out of lockdown. Via Capital Economics:   Since when was a recovery stalling at 80% of output anything other than a catastrophe? Asia is still getting worse: Europe too: And the US: I ask you, can


China unleashes flood stimulus!

Or does it? Over Easter, China reported new yuan loans for March. The numbers were big at 5.15tr yuan TSF and 2.85tr bank loans of that: Shadow finance has returned: But the three-month moving average adds some sobriety to the numbers, with it much lower than previous flood stimulus episodes: The rolling annual popped: M2


Wuhan opens as China braces for second virus wave

Cross-posted from Sinocism: Xi chaired another Standing Committee meeting, again focused on epidemic control and restarting the economy. The readout from this meeting makes it sound like the leadership is increasingly concerned about the risks of a second wave of infections as well as the deteriorating global environment which will have a significant drag on


Welcome to Japan, China

A series of articles from Bloomie today add up to more than the sum of the parts. First, this: Amid all China’s efforts to contain the economic damage of the coronavirus outbreak, a crucial development slipped by almost unnoticed — the creation of the first national bad-debt asset manager in 20 years. The economic dislocation


China ruins UN HRC

By becoming a member: BREAKING: #China joins U.N. Human Rights Council panel, where it will help select next world monitors on freedom of speech, enforced disappearances, arbitrary detention—and on health. @hillelneuer: “It’s like making a pyromaniac into the town fire chief.” — UN Watch (@UNWatch) April 3, 2020 ‘Nuff said.


Chinese recovery plateaus at 80%

If this is the best that the Chinese recovery can do then we’re all in for a world of pain. Thanks to Capital Economics: Europe is going down:     Asia is going down: The US is going down: Most worrying is the Chinese recovery which is VERY slow, halting and disastrous if it proves


Caixin China PMI very poor

Via Caixin: China’s service sector continued to face challenging conditions in March, with the COVID-19 outbreak continuing to weigh on the performance of the sector. The declines in output and new orders were not as severe as those seen in February, however, when the country imposed stricter measures to reduce the spread of the virus.


China is struggling to save itself let alone anyone else

Via Bloomie: China’s authorities are proving surprisingly reserved when it comes to unleashing support measures for its ailing economy, and investors aren’t liking the reticence. …China’s relatively cautious program of easing speaks to the government’s concerns over price stability and the country’s large pile of debt. That’s even as the economy is forecast to grow


New Chinese lockdown as virus returns

Via Reuters: A county in central China’s Henan province said on Wednesday it had virtually banned all outbound movement of people, following several cases of coronavirus infection in the area. No one can travel out of Jia county without proper authorisation, the county, which has a population of about 600,000, said in a post on


Chinese PMIs go boom! Or do they?

From the NBS: In March , China’s manufacturing purchasing manager index ( PMI ) was 52.0% , a 16.3 % increase from the previous month . From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 52.6% , 51.5% and 50.9% respectively , up 16.3 , 16.0 and 16.8 percentage


Uh oh. China reopens cinemas then shuts ’em

Hmmm…via Hollywood Reporter: Over the past two weeks, hundreds of movie theaters in the country had begun to reopen. No reason for the policy reversal was given, but insiders believe the government is worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus infections. China’s film regulators has slammed the brakes on plans to gradually reopen the


Here comes China’s second round shock

Via Bloomie: Since last week, emails from foreign clients have been flooding into export manager Grace Gao’s in-box, asking to delay orders already made, putting goods ready to be shipped on hold until further notice, or asking for payment grace periods of up to two months. Gao’s firm, Shandong Pangu Industrial Co., makes tools like


UBS: Chinese rebound is a write-off

Via UBS: Jan-Feb activities plummeted, Q1 likely much weaker Jan-Feb economic activities were severely impacted by COVID-19 outbreak and related nationwide shutdowns. Industrial production declined by 13.5% y/y and some services have been hit hard as well. Work resumption is picking up but activities are not fully back to normal in March (see China Daily


China to hit 6% growth target no worries (lol)

Rather, to lie about hitting it, via Global Times: Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), media have expressed concern over the Chinese economy. COVID-19 may impact the domestic economy, but its fundamentals will remain unchanged. The engines that drive the domestic economy are just as powerful before the outbreak. The country will not


Chinese data destroyed

So bad that the market has ignored it. Industrial production -13.5%, fixed asset investment -24.5% and retail -20.5%: The all-important fixed-asset investment collpased wall-to-wall: Real estate sales led the decline: Starts halved: Floor area under construciton is still up year to date but fell shaply to 2.9%: Finally, wait for it, steel output boomed: Leading


Li Keqiang hoses stimulus hopes

Chinese PM Li Keqiang yesterday: “At the moment we are responding to the impact of the epidemic. We have issued a lot of temporary emergency measures in a timely manner, but these measures are phased measures.” Premier Li Keqiang said at the executive meeting of the State Council on March 10 , “the next step is to achieve economic recovery and work