China Economy


Chinese recovery still hangs on stimulus

China dropped its Q3 data dump late yesterday so let’s take a look. Year to date GDP came in at 4.9%: The growth internals for September were 1.2% for industrial production YTD, fixed asset investment 0.8% YTD and retail sales -7.2% YTD but 3.3% YOY: Property sales were solid in Q3 but have lately tumbled:


China keeps credit pedal to the metal

China’s PBOC released new yuan loans for September last night it remains credit pedal to the metal with total social financing at 3.48tr yuan of which 1.9tr was bank lending: The non-bank share has rebound strongly but that is distorted by the inclusion of local government bonds these days: The three month moving average of


Evergrande finds breathing space

I am not worried about this at all. China cannot afford to let a daisy chain of failures rip through its ponzi-developer sector. It is the key policy lever for stimulus as the world stumbles through COVID. Via Bloomie: China Evergrande Group took a major step toward avoiding a cash crunch that had threatened to roil


Empty apartments drive China PMIs higher

China’s latest batch of NBS PMIs are out and show no surprises. Manufacturing is struggling: In September , the Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.5% , an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month , indicating that the manufacturing industry has rebounded. Services, read construction, is booming: In September , the non-manufacturing business activity index was 55.9% , an increase of 0.7 percentage


Chinese housing bubble about to pop?

Via ZH: Is China’s housing bubble – the main “wealth effect” for hundreds of millions of middle class Chinese – finally about to burst? On Friday, trading in onshore bonds of China Evergrande, China’s second largest and the world’s most indebted property developer, was halted after reports it was seeking government help to stave off


Pettis: Chinese economic bounce short-lived

Vai FTAlphaville: This is a guest post by Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University and a senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. His new book ‘Trade Wars are Class Wars’ was co-authored with former FT Alphavillain Matt Klein and is available at all good book stores. On Tuesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics


China builds its empty fortress of solitude

Below find a full review of this week’s China data. Apologies for the lateness. Had some “issues”. First out was August credit which has had its ears pinned back with TSF at an impressive 3.58tr yuan. Banks made up a lousy 1.2tr of that: Meaning that shadow finance is roaring ahead again, though this now


DFAT head calls out Chinese ‘bullying’

One of the biggest positives to come out of the COVID-19 pandemic is that its has forced the federal government to grow some cajones and stand up to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) bullying. The latest salvo comes from Australia’s top diplomat, DFAT Secretary Frances Adamson, who in a detailed interview in the Weekend Australian vowed


China’s modernising military

Via Sinocism: DOD Releases 2020 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Release This report accounts for the PRC’s national strategy and the drivers of China’s security behavior and military strategy, covers key developments in China’s military modernization and reform, and provides new insights


China PMIs scream empty apartments!

The one-trick pony stumbles on. The latest Chian manufacturing PMI managed weak growth: In August , the Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.0% , a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month , indicating that the overall manufacturing industry was operating smoothly.   New orders grinding higher. New export orders still falling which is pretty remarkable. But


China PMIs grind higher

Via China’s NBS comes the manufacturing PMI: In July , China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 51.1% , an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month , and was above the threshold for five consecutive months. Export orders bottoming. Services PMI: In July , the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2% , a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month , and continued to remain above the threshold.


CCP police threaten Chinese Australians

Alarming video footage has leaked of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) police threatening Chinese Australians that speak out against the authoritarian Xi Jinping regime: The #CCP will hunt you down wherever you go: Witness this video of a Chinese police officer threatening @Horror_Zoo, who lives in Australia, over her tweets about Xi Jinping. CCP insinuates it


China drops new credit bomb

China likes to pretend that it’s not unleashing credit stimulus but it is. New yuan loans for June are out and evidence is unequivocal. Total social financing was at 3.43tr yuan with banks accounting for 1.81tr of that: Shadow banks are back in a big way: The surge in new loans is obvious year on


Chinese PMIs remain weak

They’re positive but given they’re directional not positional they indicate a still-weak recovery. Manufacturing is barely expanding: From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 52.1% and 50.2% , up 0.5 and 1.4 percentage points from the previous month ; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.9% , down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month . From the perspective of the classification index, among the five classification indexes that constitute the


China unleashes new property bubble

Just like the old housing bubble, via Bloomie: China’s property market is shaking off the coronavirus effects as a gradual economic rebound and the further relaxing of centuries-old permits boost demand beyond the major hubs of Beijing and Shanghai. …The fragility of China’s economic recovery from the outbreak and sky-high home prices haven’t shaken investors’ long-standing belief that


Classic Chinese building recovery underway

Given it is likely mostly lies, the most remarkable feature of the Chinese recovery is that it still looks like crap. Headline growth indicators are weak with industrial production up a lousy 4.4% year on year and still down -2.8% YTD. It’s even worse elsewhere with retail sales down -2.8% YOY and -13.5YTD. Fixed asset


China house prices struggle to recover

It’s a measure of how poor its wider recovery is. May house prices could only manage another 0.5% and slid to 4.9% year over year amid the credit deluge: The breadth of gains narrowed a bit: Lower tiers are leading again: Raw data: Not even housing speculation is dynamic in China any more.


Chinese credit off to the races

Again. New yuan loans for May were out last night and it’s game on for Chinese credit. Total social financing remains very strong at 3.19tr yuan of which only 1.48tr was banks: Shadow finance is back although that growth is being exaggerated by tearaway bond issuance: M2 has jumped to 11.1% The 3MMA for new


UK withdraws from China

Some bloke at the ANU wants us to deepen ties with China, at the AFR: High trade shares with China are not a liability but evidence of success. Government policy should not aim to diversify away from success but to ensure international governance to manage it. The key is to manage the risks from economic


China opens sluice gate on deflation tsunami

Chinese inflation for May, wall-to-wall at the producer level: 2020 Nian 5 months, the decline in the country’s industrial producer prices up 3.7% , a decline of 0.4% ; industrial producer purchase prices fell year on year by 5.0% , a decline of 1.2% . 1 – 5 monthly average, industrial producer prices fell year on year by 1.7% , industrial producer purchase prices fell 2.2%  Improved month on month at least but


And now for some Chinese QE

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Executive summary. In this article, we explore some key concepts for understanding the unique plumbing of the Chinese monetary system, as well as some of our preferred tools for asset allocation. Our “deep dive” is motivated in part by recent policy announcements by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) against the backdrop of the


China services PMI jumps but…

Via Markit: Better but it’s still shite. Remember that these are directional indexes so things getting better is pretty meaningless if the base is disastrous, which it is. I’d like see these indexes well north of 60 if we were going to see any kind of v-shaped recovery worthy of the name.