China Economy


China industrial profits destroyed

Via China’s NBS: 1 – 3 months, the national scale industrial enterprises realized a total profit of 7814.5 billion yuan, fell 36.7% (on a comparable basis, see Note II), a decline of more than 1 – 2 narrowed in February 1.6 percent. 1 – 3 months, above-scale industrial enterprises, state-owned holding enterprises realized a total profit of 2226.7 billion yuan, fell 45.5% ; joint-stock enterprises realized a total


China’s stalled recovery looks bad for iron ore

Via Captial Economics: Most noteworthy for Australia is that stalled property sales recovery. Volumes down one quarter is worse than the 2015 bust that crushed bulks. There are offsets in infrastructure with local governments on the move: But infrastructure is less steel intensive that realty. The stimulus is relatively modest in context: Hence rate cuts:


Developed economies bill Communist Party of China for COVID-19

Not China. Not the Chinese. The Communist Party of China. Germany largest paper, Bild, went in hard: The French are not far behind, via AFR: China’s coronavirus propaganda effort in Europe has been pushed onto the defensive, as politicians, press and the public gradually turn against Beijing over its perceived culpability for the COVID-19 pandemic.


Crashed retail may be structural

Chinese retail sales are the only post-virus leading indicator we have for global households so they are worth paying attention to. Via the NBS: 3 months, total retail sales of social consumer goods 26450 billion, fell 15.8% (after deducting price factors, the actual decline of 18.1% , the following are the nominal growth unless otherwise specified), a decline of more than 1 – 2 narrowed in


Japan pulls pin on Chinese production

Via Nikkei: Amid the coronavirus pandemic, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has proposed building an economy that is less dependent on one country, China, so that the nation can better avoid supply chain disruptions. The call touched off a heated debate in the Chinese political world. In Zhongnanhai, the area in central Beijing where leaders


Are Chinese house prices about to bust?

There are signs. March price growth was barely positive at 0.1%, even if it lifted slightly from February’s -0.1%. Annual growth is falling at a good clip to 5.3%: The weakness is broad-based: Raw data: With the balance of flat or falling prices across 70 cities now 44, for first negative ratio for the first


Fox: Wuhan flu created in Chinese lab

Via Fox: EXCLUSIVE: There is increasing confidence that COVID-19 likely originated in a Wuhan laboratory not as a bioweapon, but as part of China’s effort to demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses are equal to or greater than the capabilities of the United States, multiple sources who have been briefed on the details of early actions


The Chinese recovery is dreadful

Why is anybody excited about it? It is terrible and a very poor leading indicator for everyone else coming out of lockdown. Via Capital Economics:   Since when was a recovery stalling at 80% of output anything other than a catastrophe? Asia is still getting worse: Europe too: And the US: I ask you, can


China unleashes flood stimulus!

Or does it? Over Easter, China reported new yuan loans for March. The numbers were big at 5.15tr yuan TSF and 2.85tr bank loans of that: Shadow finance has returned: But the three-month moving average adds some sobriety to the numbers, with it much lower than previous flood stimulus episodes: The rolling annual popped: M2


Wuhan opens as China braces for second virus wave

Cross-posted from Sinocism: Xi chaired another Standing Committee meeting, again focused on epidemic control and restarting the economy. The readout from this meeting makes it sound like the leadership is increasingly concerned about the risks of a second wave of infections as well as the deteriorating global environment which will have a significant drag on


Welcome to Japan, China

A series of articles from Bloomie today add up to more than the sum of the parts. First, this: Amid all China’s efforts to contain the economic damage of the coronavirus outbreak, a crucial development slipped by almost unnoticed — the creation of the first national bad-debt asset manager in 20 years. The economic dislocation


China ruins UN HRC

By becoming a member: BREAKING: #China joins U.N. Human Rights Council panel, where it will help select next world monitors on freedom of speech, enforced disappearances, arbitrary detention—and on health. @hillelneuer: “It’s like making a pyromaniac into the town fire chief.” — UN Watch (@UNWatch) April 3, 2020 ‘Nuff said.


Chinese recovery plateaus at 80%

If this is the best that the Chinese recovery can do then we’re all in for a world of pain. Thanks to Capital Economics: Europe is going down:     Asia is going down: The US is going down: Most worrying is the Chinese recovery which is VERY slow, halting and disastrous if it proves


Caixin China PMI very poor

Via Caixin: China’s service sector continued to face challenging conditions in March, with the COVID-19 outbreak continuing to weigh on the performance of the sector. The declines in output and new orders were not as severe as those seen in February, however, when the country imposed stricter measures to reduce the spread of the virus.


China is struggling to save itself let alone anyone else

Via Bloomie: China’s authorities are proving surprisingly reserved when it comes to unleashing support measures for its ailing economy, and investors aren’t liking the reticence. …China’s relatively cautious program of easing speaks to the government’s concerns over price stability and the country’s large pile of debt. That’s even as the economy is forecast to grow


New Chinese lockdown as virus returns

Via Reuters: A county in central China’s Henan province said on Wednesday it had virtually banned all outbound movement of people, following several cases of coronavirus infection in the area. No one can travel out of Jia county without proper authorisation, the county, which has a population of about 600,000, said in a post on


Chinese PMIs go boom! Or do they?

From the NBS: In March , China’s manufacturing purchasing manager index ( PMI ) was 52.0% , a 16.3 % increase from the previous month . From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 52.6% , 51.5% and 50.9% respectively , up 16.3 , 16.0 and 16.8 percentage