China Economy


Another Chinese bank goes under

Via Zero Hedge: Confirming that there is something fundamentally broken with China’s debt transmission mechanism and that, by implication, Chinese bad loans are soaring, two weeks after we reported that there was a bank run at Henan Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank which brought the bank to the verge of collapse, the WSJ reported that Harbin Bank, a


Hong Kong’s last stand

Via Sinocism comes lots of Hong Kong texture: Hong Kong protests: Last stand under way as police close in on besieged Polytechnic University – The Washington Post Thousands of Hong Kong protesters flocked to a besieged Hong Kong college campus on Monday evening, accompanied by political leaders and school principals acting as mediators, hoping to


Will China take the stimulus plunge again?

Via the FT: China’s fixed-asset investment growth has sunk to its lowest level in two decades as the Chinese leadership’s cautious stimulus fails to prop up the domestic economy in the face of a deepening slowdown. … The deepening economic slowdown, intensified by the US-China trade row, has ratcheted up pressure on Beijing to launch


Chinese credit slows even more

Don’t look to China to save the global economy. October credit is out and was very weak with Aggregate Financing at 619bn yuan and bank lending at 691bn yuan: That is, shadow banking resunmed its contraction: The three month moving average for new loans moved closer to zero: The rolling annual has stalled: Though M2


China is going ex-growth

Via Christopher Balding: China is showing [export] declines across most product types and geographic partners. Chinese imports from the rest of the world fell 5% this year through September. Why is it showing such a divergence from the U.S.? There are three specific reasons: First, the Chinese economy is growing much more slowly than the


Chinese inflation goes completely nuts

Nobody does it like China. Inflation exploded in October: In October 2019 , the national consumer price rose by 3.8% year-on-year . Among them, the city rose 3.5% , the rural rose 4.6% ; the food price rose 15.5% , the non-food price rose 0.9% ; the consumer price rose 5.2% , and the service price rose 1.4% . 1 – 10 on average, the national consumer prices rose year on year by 2.6% . In October , the national


China seeks to calm bond market with rate cut

Via Caixin: China’s central bank took another step to lower borrowing costs on Tuesday to encourage lending amid growing downward pressure on the economy, implementing a small cut in the interest rate on the medium-term lending facility (MLF), a key reference used by banks to price their loans. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reduced


Caixin services PMI slows, casting doubt on growth

Via Caixin: The Caixin China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) showed a further modest increase in overall business activity during October. At 52.0, the Composite Output Index edged up from 51.9 in September, to post its best reading since April. Data broken down by sector indicated that the stronger performance was


Xi thrilled with handling of Hong Kong

Via Sinocism today: 习近平会见林郑月娥 Xi met with Carrie Lam Monday in Shanghai, says the Party Center has confidence in her. Minister of Public Security Zhao Kezhi attended the meeting. 在听取了林郑月娥关于香港近期局势的汇报之后,习近平表示,香港“修例风波”已持续了5个月,你带领特区政府恪尽职守,努力稳控局面、改善社会气氛,做了大量艰辛的工作。中央对你是高度信任的,对你和管治团队的工作是充分肯定的。止暴制乱、恢复秩序仍然是香港当前最重要的任务。依法制止和惩治暴力活动就是维护香港广大民众的福祉,要坚定不移。同时,要做好与社会各界对话和改善民生等工作。希望香港社会各界人士全面准确贯彻“一国两制”方针和基本法,齐心协力,共同维护香港的繁荣稳定。 After listening to Carrie Lam’s report on the recent situation in Hong Kong, Xi Jinping said that the Hong Kong SAR government, under your leadership,


Caixin China PMI does better

Personally I rate the official PMI much more highly, it is considerably larger, but of note nonetheless comes the Caixin version: October data showed the strongest improvement in operating conditions faced by Chinese manufacturers since February 2017. Output and new orders both expanded at steeper rates, with the latter supported by a renewed increase in


China PMIs sicken

The NBS is out with China PMIs for October and its more weakness:   In October 2019 , the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 49.3% , down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month . Nothing much good there with local and export new orders struggling. The services PMI was not much better: In October 2019 , the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.8% , down 0.9 percentage points from


Hong Kong’s economy dies beside freedom

US vice-President, Mike Pence, former nut job turned sane summed it Hong Kong nicely last night: “No longer will America and its leaders hope that economic engagement alone will transform Communist China’s authoritarian state into a free and open society that respects private property, the rule of law, and the international rules of commerce. Hong


How did China develop so fast?

Via Yao Yang, professor at the National School of Development and China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, at Project Syndicate: BEIJING – This year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences recognizes Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo, and Michael Kremer for their work using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in developmental studies. This year’s selection has


Chinese real estate won’t rescue the economy this time?

Links via Sinocism: Real estate won’t rescue the economy this time? 楼市一城一策微幅试水,三地限购松绑各有“小心思” China Business News reports on the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in some cities and areas, and a rumor that restrictions will be relaxed in Yanjiao, a commuter “suburb” of Beijing just over the border in Hebei. But the article says any loosening


Some alternative measures of Chinese growth

A chart fest for you. On growth, not so good: But less is more: On credit, not good for future growth either: Credit risk is on the march: Industry cares: But local governments don’t: And neither do foreign investors: No help from the external sector: The consumer is weak: Industry too, but better than the


Chinese house prices fade away

The fade continues for Chinese data. This time new home prices which eased to 0.53% on the month and 8.4% on the year: All city tiers are slowing though lower remains stronger: Breadth of price gains is falling away at a good pace now, down to 44 cities with rising prices and 26 with flat


CCP building a fourth aircraft carrier

Via The National Interest: The People’s Liberation Army Navy—more commonly known outside of China as the Chinese Navy—is modernizing at a breakneck pace. Chinese shipbuilders have built more than one hundred warships in the past decade, a build rate outstripping the mighty U.S. Navy. Most importantly, China now has two aircraft carriers—Liaoning and a second