China Economy

From Capital Economics via FTAlphaville: The level of reserves is unaffected by changes to the RRR.

From HSBC the China services PMI up 0.6 points to 52.9: The latest set of PMI data indicated that Chinese service sector companies had a strong start to Q2, with activity and new orders both rising solidly in April.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

According to a State Department memo (released by WikiLeaks), Li Keqiang (then the Party Committee Secretary of Liaoning) told a US ambassador in 2007 that the GDP figures in Liaoning were unreliable and that he himself used three other indicators: the railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and loans disbursed by banks.

Exclusively from Michael Pettis’ newsletter: 1.

by Chris Becker The HSBC Manufacturing PMI for April shows the lowest rating in a year, contracting to 48.9 points, well below expectations. This is also below the flash result posted a week or so ago (at 49.2 points) and Friday’s official print (which is more about the bigger firms).

From the IMF today comes spectacular research on the Chinese property bust: Real estate has been a key engine of China’s rapid growth in the past decade.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

China has released its official PMI for April and it’s come in flat at 50.1, which is pretty ordinary given the stimulus underway.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Bloomie, China’s: …apparent crude steel demand fell 6 percent in the first quarter, CISA said in a report posted on its website Wednesday.

From Anne Stevenson-Yang at J Capital courtesy of FTAlphaville: The kind of inflation that the government can generate is asset inflation, and regulators are using every tool in their power to abet that swelling of value.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Westpac: The absolute level of the Westpac MNI China CSI indicates that Chinese consumers are still anxious about their personal financial wellbeing and the economy more broadly.

More stimulus approaches in China, from the WSJ: China’s central bank is planning to launch its own version of innovative credit-easing programs adopted by its counterparts in developed countries, according to officials with knowledge of the matter, as Beijing’s flagship plan to restructure trillions of dollars of local-government debts is hitting snags.

From the WSJ: When China released its tabulation of first-quarter growth earlier this month, the 7% figure—the worst in six years—stirred fears of a deepening slowdown.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

A look back at recent initiatives by China to get its local government debt market moving from UBS via FTAlphaville: This is NOT a Chinese “QE”, but a debt restructuring and asset securitization.

From Citi: Best of times vs. worst of times: In a stabilized but polarized overall property market, we see the “best of times” ahead for quality names as consolidators that are progressing well with their business model transformations (asset-light with high turnover, best city exposures and/or diversified income streams).

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

The HSBC China Flash PMI is out at 49.2, four points lower than last month and expectations.

From BNP via FTAlphaville: It has been a near unshakeable axiom that China’s economy is on a pre-determined flight path to overtake the US and quite quickly become the world’s biggest economy.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.