China Economy

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks. CREIS reports prices in its 100 city index fell 0.15% in March, down from the 0.24% decline in February (in January, CREIS reported an increase in prices).

The second of China’s PMIs (the official version) is out for March and did better than the private HSBC measure managing to flop over the line into expansion up 0.2 points to 50.1.

From SCMP: A senior executive at one of China’s largest steel companies is being investigated on suspicion of corruption, as the Communist Party’s anti-graft watchdog shifts its focus to major state-owned enterprises.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has cut mortgage rates again overnight from Dad’s Army: …the minimum deposit for individuals buying additional housing would be set at 40 per cent, according to a statement on its website.

From the FT: Most listed mainland homebuilders recorded a steady rise in revenue last year, but sharp declines in profit for many are a symptom of aggressive price-cutting designed to shift stock and generate much-needed cash in the debt-laden sector.

From Bocom International Holdings Co.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From BNP Paribas via FTAlphaville: Against all odds, the best performing asset class on the planet over the last nine months or so has been Chinese equities.

FromWestpac: The Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator, hereafter the Westpac MNI China CSI, increased by 2.7ptsin March, printing 114.7 versus 112.0 in February, +2.4% over the month and –2.0% over the year.

When comparing the deflating Chinese property bubble to that of the US a few years ago there is one very important difference to bear in mind.

This won’t help iron ore (or maybe it will in this upside down world): Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 49.2 in March (50.7 in February).

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

From Citi: The Li Keqiang Index points to a weaker start in the economy – Our augmented index hit a new low since the data history.

In its Bulletin yesterday, the RBA released a solid article on Chinese property: Property development, especially of residential property, represents a sizeable share of China’s economic activity and has made a considerable contribution to overall growth over recent history.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks: Chinese new homes prices fell an average of 0.43% across the government’s 70 city survey last month. The drop is unchanged from January’s 0.43% drop, marking three straight months of consistent price declines (no acceleration or deceleration in the trend).

China’s NBS has released February new home prices and the shakeout continues with prices down 5.7% year-on-year from 5.1% in January.

From Investing in Chinese Stocks, land sales for Jan/Feb were down 30% year-on-year 前两月土地出让收入降3成 地方官直言财政紧张: By the real estate market adjustments on state-owned land use right transfer income 455.3 billion yuan, up by 257.9 billion yuan, down 36.2 percent.

Yesterday and overnight, China sensitive stocks took off again on hopes that China’s National Party Congress signaled a renewed push for growth.

China’s credit data for February was out Friday and showed a decent bounce that effectively restored its deleveraging glide slope.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

China released its Jan/Feb data last night (which is combined to overcome CNY distortions)  and, boy, did it underwhelm.

From Morgan Stanley’s China deleveraging scorecard: Total leverage to official GDP has risen to 247% at Sept 2014, still rising but at a slower pace than in the 2008- 2011 time frame.