Australian Politics

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Live by WeChat, die by WeChat

Via Domain: Shadow foreign minister Penny Wong attacks the government over the Liberal Party’s alleged involvement in “fake news” campaigns on Wechat. “We don’t have major political parties engaging in fake news on this media platform or any other media platform. It is incumbent upon Scott Morrison to rule out any Liberal Party involvement in

11

A quantitative take on election odds

I have a working theory that overall betting odds on elections are affected by what people wish would happen as much as what people think will happen. However, my theory is individual seat odds are less likely to be affected by the casual gambler and the betting odds are likely to be dominated by either

12

Dutton Shao Ping attacks Paul Kequiang

Herein lies the problem, via The Australian: Peter Dutton said Australians should be concerned at Mr Keating’s call for Mr Shorten, who is yet to name who would take the crucial home affairs ministry in government, to unpick Australia’s national security apparatus “which has disrupted 15 major terrorist attack plots since September 2014”. “Has Mr

18

Labor gaslights Australia on China

Paul Keating’s China rant has triggered serious divisions within Labor about how to deal with China, via the ABC: Bill Shorten says he does not share former Labor prime minister Paul Keating’s views that Australia’s spy chiefs are “nutters” who should be sacked to help improve relations with China. The extraordinary rebuke of senior intelligence

14

Abbottalypse update

Via Domian: New polling commissioned by GetUp suggests former prime minister Tony Abbott is on track for a defeat by independent candidate Zali Steggall in his blue ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah. A Lonergan poll of 805 Warringah voters shows Mr Abbott trailing Ms Steggall 56-44 on a two party-preferred basis. GetUp is campaigning against

16

Labor, ASPI dismiss Keating’s China kow tow

Via the ABC: Former prime minister Paul Keating says Australia’s spy chiefs are “nutters” and should be sacked to help improve relations with China. The extraordinary rebuke of senior intelligence figures was made on the sidelines of Labor’s federal election campaign launch, but immediately drew comparisons with US President Donald Trump, who has regularly clashed with America’s spy chiefs. Mr

50

What does Make Australia Stupid Again want?

Via the Saturday Paper’s Mike Seccombe: Clive Palmer is not delusional. Those too-good-to-be-true promises, the 151 hapless, hopeless candidates running in every lower house seat, the risible “shadow minister” titles, have been set up to create the illusion of a serious party with a broad suite of policies and deep interest in the disparate concerns

27

Election of the morons intensifies

We’ve had plenty of them this week: LNP’s Jeremy Hearn and Jessica Whelan hating on Muslims LNP’s Peter Killin and Gurpal Singh hating on LGBTI; ALP’s Luke Creasey joking about rape; ALP Wayne Kurnorth hating on Jews; LNP’s Sachin Joshi hating on women; ON’s Ross MacDonald and Steve Dickson going the grope; ON’s James Ashby doing an NRA

23

Abbottalypse Now!

Poor old Tony is taking a whooping, via Domain: Former prime minister Tony Abbott says that in Australia “we sub-contract too much out to experts already”, and that we should not “save our planet at the expense of our neighbour”, in comments made in a debate with his independent rival for his seat of Warringah,

12

Penny Wong makes a decent fist of China

Via Penny Wong at the Lowy Institute last night: Labor’s foreign policy is founded on the belief that we deal with the world as it is and we seek to change it for the better. Australia is an independent, multicultural nation, confident of our place in the world. We know our values – compassion, fairness,

45

Outlaw Davidphobia Now!

How do you spell “Oztraeliare” again? Via Crikey: Two Liberal Victorian candidates have stood down over, respectively, Islamophobic and homophobic comments written in 2018, while, in what has become a stacked 48-hours for social media political controversies, Labor’s Melbourne candidate Luke Creasey has apologised for sharing a rape joke on Facebook in 2012. Days after Labor NT candidate Wayne Kurnorth stood

14

One really bad LNP election ad

If you’re such a great manager of money then why are you running election ads like this (which, ironically, keep popping up on MB): Seriously, the money raised can’t possibly cover the cost of the ad and the brand damage is priceless. Maybe they’re funded by Labor.

66

One Nation disintegrates into smut

I suppose it was inevitable, via News: Another candidate for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party is embroiled in a sleazy scandal, after sexist social media posts emerged overnight. Ross Macdonald is running in the north Queensland seat of Leichhardt for the right-wing party and is the latest headache for the embattled Senator Hanson. The Cairns Post today

5

Betting improves for Coalition

Via Mark the Ballot: This morning’s read from prediction markets for the Federal election outcome shows a marked change on yesterday. Yesterday I had the mean Coalition win probability across the three houses I follow (Beteasy, Ladbrokes and Sportsbet) at 25.3 per cent. This morning it had jumped to 29.2 per cent. If we turn

5

Labor to have a tough senate for tax reform

Seven of the cross-bench have banded together to produce a declaration: Labor can deliver on all of that easy enough, so long as it breaks the east coast gas cartel to prevent utility price shocks as more intermittent energy hits the grid without increased dispatchable gas. Otherwise it will be chaos. But many of the

20

Still more Scummo corruption

More Scummo corruption, via The Guardian: Scott Morrison has sidestepped a question about whether he sought assurances from Clive Palmer that Queensland Nickel workers will be paid the $7m they are owed at the time the Liberal party entered a preference dealwith the controversial businessman’s United Australia party. Morrison’s deflection on the hustings in Perth came

16

Jason Yat-sen Li should just condemn the CCP

Via perennial young leader Jason Yat-sen Li on the Labor senate ticket at Domain: “As a principle I would love to see Parliament broadly reflective of the Australian population,” Mr Li told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age days after being selected as a candidate. “I like targets because you know you are working towards

60

Labor deploys its negative gearing billions

Bill Shorten has released his dam wall of billions from tax reform reforms savings, via New Daily: Childcare will be offered for “free” for working families earning under $69,000-a-year under Labor’s new plan to make daycare cheaper for nearly one million families. Every family in Australia with a combined income under $175,000 will secure cheaper

45

Make Australia stupid again tightens election

According to The Australian: An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian with three weeks to polling day shows the ­Coalition improving its position by a point to now trail Labor 49-51 on a two-party-preferred vote. It is the best result for the government under Scott Morrison’s leadership, but would still result in defeat and a loss of

34

How an anti-gay Chinese community decided the 2016 election

Cross-posted from The Saturday Paper’s Mike Seccombe: Under the influence of religious conservatives, the vote of ethnic minorities won the 2016 election for the Coalition. It’s a bold statement, but the evidence is there in the data, says Andrew Jakubowicz, professor of sociology at the University of Technology Sydney. More specifically, he says, Malcolm Turnbull’s