Australian LNG

The bear market rally is struggling today as big iron retraces with BHP under $20 again -2.6%, RIO -3.3%, and FMG -6%.

From Morgan Stanley: Macro Hopes Continue, But Fundamentals Are Setup to Slip “Close your eyes and buy” seems to be the mantra for now.

What is the world going to do with Chinese savings?

Bloomie has a terrific piece on the gas being disgorged all over Europe: Europe is awash with low-priced natural gas, thanks to Russia and Norway using a Saudi-like tactic to hold market share.

Lol, in what is now a metronomic event, Dalian has again surged limit up pushing stocks back to flat from a solid fall earlier.

From the AFR: Last year was tailor made for the average investor using the sharemarket index as a benchmark.

Big iron continues to rampage with Dalian limit up again and shares following suit.

One man who will be breathing an enormous sigh of relief today is Trevor Sykes with BHP blasting through $20 and effectively ending the infamous Sykesnado in which he instructed all to buy the stock as it plunged into a value destroying vortex.

UBS has a nice precis of the oil bull case: With cash cost of production for most global oil supplies well below US$40/bbl, less than 0.1% of global oil supplies have been shut in because of lower oil prices.

So much for rebalancing!

The Brent oil price shrugged off the Doha dud last night recovering much of its lost ground even though the Kuwait strike was settled.

From Bloomberg: Iran and its neighbor Iraq have together added more than 1 million barrels a day to their crude oil exports in the first two weeks of April, compared with their March average…These increases offered Saudi Arabia the perfect excuse to refuse to freeze its own output.

Big gas is taking it in the team today following the Doha dud with WPL -1.4%, OSH -4%, STO -6%, ORG -5% and LNG -1%:   I imagine the market will now follow every tick is every OPEC oil minster’s face henceforth so volatility is going to be the name of the game.

From Goldman: Lack of OPEC freeze is bearish sentiment but Kuwait strike is bullish fundamentals OPEC and several non-OPEC producers failed to reach an agreement to freeze production in Doha today, Sunday April 17.

It’s becoming a bear market rally for the ages for big iron with BHP up 4.8%, RIO 3.1% and FMG 2.8% as Dalian is up another 5.5 points at the open:   RIO and FMG are now at new highs in the rally.

So says Macquarie:  On April 17th, OPEC members as well as other major producers have been invited to attend a meeting in Doha, Qatar to discuss a potential deal to freeze crude output at January levels.

Brent oil pulled back last night on a range of factors but not very far resting at $43.94 as I write.

If it digs, buy it!

From Fairfax: The once-in-a-lifetime liquefied natural gas boom off the coast of Western Australia will not deliver any significant royalties to the federal government for at least two decades, according to an analysis prepared for the state’s government.

The Brent oil price pinned its ears back last night up another 3.2% to $44.20.