Via the AFR: The Reserve Bank of Australia is opening the door to even tougher regulatory restraints on risky bank lending after announcing it would do its own “bank stress tests,” a task usually performed by the prudential regulator. Amid a fresh barrage of warnings that limits on investor lending would not reduce high household
Australian interest rates are set by the Reserve Bank of Australia, an independent body established in 1959. It is guided by an inflation targeting regime that seeks price stability in the 2-3% consumer price index band. The RBA originally also governed prudential policy but following several large scandals and bankruptcies in the late 1990s that role was separated into a discrete entity titled the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority.
The RBA is widely well-regarded despite a recent history of buried corruption allegations and a board of business rent seekers that, in more ethical nations, would not have their hands anywhere near monetary policy levers.
In 1990, Australian interest rates were set at 17.5%. But during the Great Moderation, interest rates consistently fell alongside inflation and oscillated in a band between 1.5% and 7.5%.
Owing to an endowment of resources that proved very attractive to China during the Global Financial Crisis, Australian interest rates did not fall to the lows experienced in other developed markets. Indeed, Australia was the first developed market to raise interest after the crisis though it has subsequently had to lower them again as the commodity boom subsided.
During the 2000s, Australian interest rates began to be influenced by external economic pressures much more than previously. This process was driven by the huge offshore borrowing of Australia’s big four banks in wholesale markets. As their offshore liabilities ballooned, the banks were increasingly exposed to the vicissitudes of far flung markets and investors. This reached a head in the global financial crisis of 2008 when banks faced much higher demands from offshore investors for better risk-adjusted returns, forcing them to break with the Australian cash rate in setting local interest rates.
Ever since, Australian bank have regularly adjusted lending and deposit interest rates unilaterally and independently around the cash rate set by the RBA. These interest rates moves were a constant source of political friction as politicians sought to protect the Australian property bubble.
In 2015, Australian interest rate policy was forced to return to a defacto shared responsibility arrangement between the RBA and APRA. With the lowest interest rates in fifty years, the Australian property bubble inflated to new dimensions even as a global yield trade drove up the value of the Australian dollar, threatening economic growth. Eventually the solution found was to apply macroprudential policy to some mortgage lending so that interest rates could be lowered to take pressure off the currency.
MacroBusiness was the most accurate forecaster on Australia interest rates in the market from 2011 forward. It predicted both the turn in rates downwards in 2011 and has had the most dovish outlook ever since. It also lead the debate around, and implementation of, macroprudential tools in 2014. MacroBusiness covers all apposite data and wider analysis of these issues daily.
From Vimal Gor at MT: September began as a month of clear trends, trends that had continued from August and seemed, if anything, to be gaining more momentum. Among those trends were a weaker US Dollar and lower US yields, spurred early in the month by various Fed speakers warning of the dangers of hiking
Via WSJ comes Ian Harper, the RBA’s chosen and much-improved jawboner: “The thing that is causing an issue for us (the RBA board) is slow growth in wages, which is feeding into slow growth in household income,” Professor Harper said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “If you start to lose that momentum, that
From Chris Joye today: One of the most vocal local bulls is the barrel-chested Charlie Jamieson from the eponymous Jamieson Coote Bonds, which after launching in 2014 now runs $455 million. (I played in the same rugby team as his lofty co-founder, Angus Coote, who was a handy second-rower serviced by an extraordinarily capable hooker.)
From former RBA boffin John Edwards today: It’s been tough for those writing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook in recent years. ‘Is the Tide Rising?’, the report asked in 2014, only to conclude later that same year that ‘Legacies, Clouds and Uncertainties’ still surrounded the global outlook. The next year there were ‘Cross Currents’, and then ‘Uneven
Via Barclays: We expect the RBA to remain patient and wait for signs of a more broad-based recovery across businesses and household incomes before firmly signalling any change in monetary policy stance Governor Lowe clearly stated in his parliamentary testimony that, within the RBA, the preference is for rates to move up, not down, from
From the Shadow: Official economic growth figures for the second quarter found the Australian economy grew by 0.8 per cent in the three months to June, and 1.8 per cent for the year, rebounding from 0.3 per cent for the first quarter of 2017. Combined with favourable employment figures and an improved outlook for the
From the Real Estate Treasurer: “This has been a painful process but there are reasons to now be hopeful that we are near end of this adjustment process and consumers will start to see their real wages growing in line with productivity again,” he said in a speech to the Business Council of Australia on
Via the AFR: Perth-based hedge fund investor NWQ has signed up former Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens as it ramps up efforts to attract offshore investors to the Australian hedge fund scene. Mr Stevens will join NWQ as a member of the investment committee, adding to his role as an adviser to Ellerston Capital’s macro
By Leith van Onselen Find attached an interesting video segment from ABC’s The Business examining whether or not the RBA will raise interest rates and what impact this would have on household budgets. The segment features HSBC chief economist, Paul Bloxham, who outlines his case for rate hikes (as articulated earlier in the month), as
From Alan Kolher today: Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe and his board are approaching the biggest decision since the RBA gained full independence in 1996 and started making its own decisions. …why is that such a big deal this time? Because household debt is 190 per cent of income and we’re in the midst of
From Westpac’s Bill Evans: Markets have moved to price in three hikes for the RBA’s cash rate by end 2019. Other major banks concur broadly with that view. Recall that in mid-August last year, these same players (markets and most other banks) were forecasting rate cuts over the course of the remainder of 2016 and
Chris Joye, inflation hawk, soars again: The world’s most important central bank is on track for three rate hikes this year, and has started the unprecedented process of unwinding its asset purchasing program – or tapering “quantitative easing” – which is having a devastating impact on interest rate sensitive sectors. While duration-loving financial markets and
Via Deutsche: Australian consumers suggest the RBA won’t be following the BoC anytime soon; and that Fed Funds should be closer to the RBA cash rate. One stark difference between Australia and Canada is the ‘happiness’ of Canadians (the high level of Canadian consumer sentiment) versus ‘not-so-happy’ Australians (Figure 1). In Figure 2 we plot
If you want to know why the Aussie dollar is so resilient here it is, via Goldman: Bottom line: In a speech today, RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis expressed the view that the global economy has turned and suggested there was a risk in falling “behind the curve in catching a change in economic
He may not know how to fill in his parliamentary application form but he sure knows why it’s there. If there was ever any doubt about what this guy stands for then put it aside: Nick Xenophon will introduce legislation next year to require the prudential regulator to closely consider the impact of its actions
RBA minutes: Domestic Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the domestic economy by noting that labour market conditions had continued to improve, although spare capacity remains. Employment had risen further in July, the participation rate had edged higher and the unemployment rate had remained steady at 5.6 per cent. Full-time employment had risen strongly
Via UBS: Aug jobs boom 54k, surging 2.7% y/y (best since 2015), driven by full-time Employment boomed in Aug-17, up a far stronger than expected 54k m/m (UBS: +10k, mkt: +20k), the most since Mar-17, after +29k in Jul-17 (was +28k). The y/y jumped to 2.7%, the best since 2015, albeit ~consistent with stronger lead
From Bloxo: Strong jobs growth: RBA hikes are coming Today’s jobs numbers delivered a strong upside surprise, with 54k jobs created in August (market had 20k) driven mostly by full-time job creation. These numbers line up well with the other surveys, such as the NAB business survey, job vacancies and job advertisements, which are also
Via Bloomie comes RBA board member Ian Harper with strong words of warning for the hawks: While it’s “terrific” full-time employment growth is strong and unemployment is slowly coming down, it’s a “concern” to see under-employment isn’t moving much and wages and household income growth are slow, because that indicates excess capacity, Harper said in
From NAB: Stronger employment, GDP and investment data have seen us revise our forecasts lower for unemployment, and slightly increase our forecasts for GDP growth and inflation. While we remain cautious about aspects of the economic outlook, we now believe the labour market will strengthen enough to allow the RBA to remove some of the
From Goldman: The RBA’s long-standing reference to labour market conditions “warranting careful monitoring” was an interesting omission from the final paragraph of August’s RBA Board Minutes. Since April 2017, the RBA had framed its neutral policy stance as a “watching brief” over risks in the labour and housing markets – with “uncertainty” on the labour
From Phil Lowe overnight: Good evening. On behalf of the Reserve Bank Board I would like to warmly welcome you all to this community dinner. Thank you for your interest in the RBA and for joining us this evening. As you are probably aware the Reserve Bank Board had its monthly meeting here in Brisbane
From Bill Evans at Westpac: As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%. The Governor’s statement indicates that the Bank is feeling a little more comfortable with the outlook. Growth prospects have improved and the heat seems to be coming out of the housing market. Evidence to support