Australian interest rates

The Actuaries Institute reported in August that 1.6 million Australian households were experiencing financial stress as a result of escalating home insurance costs.

By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA.

The latest election polling from Roy Morgan shows that Labor and the Coalition are tied 50%-50% on a two-party preferred basis.

Sometimes reading the AFR is like shooting fish in a barrel: Local borrowers are getting restless and wondering why Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock says the RBA board does not expect to cut interest rates this year based on its economic outlook.

At its September monetary policy meeting, the RBA suggested that the official cash rate would remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

CBA’s non-consensus call predicting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut rates before Christmas is looking prescient following the latest inflation data from the Melbourne Institute.

With the federal election due by May 2025, all polling suggests that we are headed for a hung parliament.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales data for August, which jumped by a strong 0.7% over the month to be 3.1% higher year-on-year: The result smashed economists’ expectations of a 0.4% monthly increase.

Stephen Wu, senior economist at CBA, has published research showing how Australians are overwhelmingly using the extra disposable income from the Stage 3 tax cuts to pay down debts.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers recently claimed that the RBA was “smashing the economy” by keeping interest rates high.

Do they screen for low IQs to work at the AFR?

RBA cash rate futures are slowly but surely getting the message that the Australian outlook for inflation is not so different to other developed markets.

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the official cash rate on hold at 4.35%.

This week we get the monthly inflation print for August.

Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers needs a pat on the back.

The RBA says the jobs market is too tight: It’s true that recent unemployment rate outcomes have not been unusual given the historical relationship between changes in the unemployment rate and GDP growth rates (Graph 9).

By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA: Key Points: Real consumer spending contracted in Q2 24 to be just 0.5% higher through the year (comfortably below the RBA’s forecast of 1.1%/yr).

The RBA really should give up trying to predict the future.

The July monthly inflation indicator from the ABS showed that the disinflationary impulse had broadened.