Australian interest rates

So says Goldman.

If you read the AFR, your mind will die: Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has softened the bank’s previous warning that government spending is contributing to inflation and instead pointed to consumer spending, in a messaging shift that will help shore up relations with Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

It’s been obvious for months that the New Zealand economy was falling apart.

The RBA said in parliament this morning: “Inflation is still too high and, in underlying terms, is not expected to be back in the top of the band until the end of next year,” she told the House of Representatives economics committee.

Below is CBA Senior Economist Belinda Allen’s report on the July labour market survey from the ABS: Key Points: Employment growth was strong in July, rising by 58.2k.

From SEEK’s annual release yesterday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should be encouraged by Tuesday’s NAB Business Survey, which reported lower cost pressures.

On Monday, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser gave a speech that included the following chart on consumer spending by age cohort: The chart showed that younger Australians aged under 35 have cut their spending hard in response to the RBA’s monetary tightening.

He’s grown it long and slicked it back in homage to Wall Street and now Andrew Hauser is bringing the pain: Commentators telling the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut or raise interest rates are overconfident “false prophets” who could damage the economy with their poor predictions, deputy governor Andrew Hauser warns.

ANZ has the chart.

The past few days have seen a stoush erupt between Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock and the Albanese government over the causes of Australia’s inflation.

Aussie macro management is melting down: Treasurer Jim Chalmers has disputed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s assessment that the economy was still too strong and that big-spending government budgets were prolonging inflation.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has chosen to keep the official cash rate on hold at 4.35% at today’s Monetary Policy Board Meeting.

As the RBA meets today, the bond market is moving well ahead of it.

Following last week’s lower-than-expected Q2 trimmed mean CPI inflation reading, Monday’s Melbourne Institute’s (MI) monthly inflation gauge for July confirmed a lower inflationary pulse.

According to Citi: The Sahm rule is already triggered with a little bit of rounding: Goldman says no 50bps…yet: Nonfarm payrolls rose 114k in July, below consensus expectations.

Ignore the hawks, for they are wrong again.

  The above chart was picked up by a Macrobusiness member (H/T JohnR) off Twitter (X) in the last day or so.

CBA head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, has published the following chart showing how financial markets have swung sharply to pricing in rate cuts following Wednesday’s lower-than-expected Q2 CPI result.

The emerging Australian monetary easing is fast catching up to the rest of the world.