Australian interest rates

According to Citi: The Sahm rule is already triggered with a little bit of rounding: Goldman says no 50bps…yet: Nonfarm payrolls rose 114k in July, below consensus expectations.

Ignore the hawks, for they are wrong again.

  The above chart was picked up by a Macrobusiness member (H/T JohnR) off Twitter (X) in the last day or so.

CBA head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, has published the following chart showing how financial markets have swung sharply to pricing in rate cuts following Wednesday’s lower-than-expected Q2 CPI result.

The emerging Australian monetary easing is fast catching up to the rest of the world.

Below is Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis’ note on today’s Q2 CPI inflation result: Inflation in the June quarter was in line with our expectations, and a shade below on some key measures.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the all-important Q2 CPI inflation print, with headline CPI rising by 1.0% over the quarter and 3.8% annually.

In the past two years, we have seen the gap between home values and the capacity to pay widen to historic proportions: The deterioration in affordability reflects the circa 50% rise in mortgage repayments following the RBA’s monetary tightening cycle, combined with the ongoing appreciation in home values.

Bloomberg weighs in on the Aussie rates debate today: Debate over whether Australia’s central bank needs to deliver a late-cycle policy tightening is likely to be resolved with the release of quarterly inflation data this week — and the currency is set to be swept up in the fallout.

This week is pivotal for the Australian economy. On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the Q2 CPI inflation figures, which will determine whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the official cash rate at its 6 August meeting.

As we know, Australian inflation has been severely exacerbated by the Albanese Government’s two major economic management blunders: excessive immigration, amplifying a housing construction price and rental shock, and refusing to address the war-profiteering of the East Coast gas export cartel.

The Reserve Bank of Inflation Island is not happy: Rapidly rising building costs are keeping inflation in Australia higher than overseas, Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has warned, as the economy enters a “difficult” stage where demand remains too hot.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has published a Bulletin article entitled “Recent Drivers of Housing Loan Arrears”.

The Fake Greens have taken populism and loonyism to new heights with Deputy Leader in the Senate, Nick McKim, calling on the Albanese government to stop the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from lifting interest rates.

As is often the case, Australians are forced to look to foreign maniacs to address their interests over the policies of the Canberra suicide squad.

The official ABS labour force survey continues to defy nearly every other labour market measure, recording strong employment growth of 50,200 in June and a solid 0.8% rise in hours worked: The number of jobs added was more than double economists’ estimates of 20,000.

This is what happens when inept and cowardly politicians run a country.

There has been some market repricing over the last few days as the reality of sinking US inflation and rising Fed dovishness sinks in.

There’s another inflation panic at the AFR: Australian consumers and businesses will pay more for everything from chocolate and sofas to mining equipment as shipping crises in the Red Sea and Asia fuel the worst freight delays since the pandemic and threaten to stoke local inflation.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the average new home loan for owner-occupiers reached a record high of $626,055 nationally in May.

Via Fitch.

The prospect of the cash rate remaining on hold for some time has prompted a growing number of Australians to refinance their mortgages with a new lender or switch to an interest-only loan.

It’s about to rain rate cuts across the developed world.