Australian Economy

From the FT: China will officially launch a new $50bn Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank on Friday as it steps up its challenge to global financial institutions like the World Bank that it feels are dominated by America and its allies.

By Leith van Onselen As noted briefly by Houses & Holes, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the September quarter 0f 2014, which registered a modest quarterly increase in prices, with the result also coming ahead of economists’ expectations of 0.4% inflation over the quarter.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released the September quarter CPI and inflation is easing at 0.5% (0.4 expected) for the quarter and a tame 2.2% for the year.

From Westpac’s Bill Evans: The six month annualised deviation from trend growth rate of the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index which indicates the likely pace of economic growth three to nine months into the future fell from –1.07% in August to –1.16% in September.

A few extra charts this morning from the CBA commodities team gives an insight into just how fast the Chinese economy is moving way from Australia.

By Leith van Onselen The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research (RMR) consumer confidence index fell in the week ended 19 October, falling 2.2 points (-1.9%%) to 111.6, taking it below its long-run average reading of 113.2 (see next chart).

From the SMH comes a blunt assessment from Kerry Stokes that Western Australia is headed for a recession: “They [BHP and Rio] are pretty big smart cats,” Mr Stokes said.

From the Grattan Institute today: For some time the price of natural gas has been rising well above  the cost of living.

By Leith van Onselen Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deputy governor, Christopher Kent, has today given a speech to the Leading Age Services Australia National Congress on the impacts of population ageing on the Australian economy.

By Leith van Onselen The cost to Australian consumers from the construction of costly desalination plants continue to soar as rising dam levels make the investments redundant.

By Leith van Onselen Fairfax revealed further rorts of Australia’s 457 visa system over the weekend, with an audit of 1,800 of the so-called 200,000 skilled foreign workers in Australia by the Fair Work Ombudsman showing that 40% of audited 457 visas potentially breached visa rules.

From Westpac’s excellent Red Book,the bible of consumer attitudes: ― The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 0.9% from 94.0 in Sep to 94.8 in Oct, a slight improvement but still leaving the index stuck in a pessimistic range.

By Leith van Onselen The ACT Light Rail Project – the $610 million to $783 million 12-kilometre line connecting Gungahlin in the north and Civic – is dividing the nation’s capital.

By Leith van Onselen Find below Westpac’s preview of the September quarter consumer price index (CPI), which is due to be released by the ABS on Wednesday: Westpac is forecasting a 0.6%qtr rise (2.4%yr) in the headline CPI in the September quarter.

By Leith van Onselen Dr Tim Williams, chief ­executive of the Committee for Sydney, yesterday gave an extraordinary speech to the National Growth Areas ­Alliance Congress in Adelaide, arguing that Australia’s cities have become the “orphans of public policy” and demanded that they receive a greater share of public funding for infrastructure.

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Health is rarely a priority in trade negotiations.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released its detailed monthly labour force statistics, which includes breakdowns of employment and unemployment across Australia’s capital cities and regions.

From Westpac: The Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflationary Expectations are now reported as a 30% symmetric trimmed mean utilising all responses except for the ‘don’t know’ responses. •These changes have added about 2ppt to the level of the index compared to the old trimmed mean (chart 5).

By Leith van Onselen Westpac has released its Australian Consumer Unemployment Expectations Survey for October, which revealed an improved jobs outlook amongst Australian consumers, with the index falling 3.9% in October –  the largest monthly fall in just over a year – taking it 9.6% below its March 2014 peak.

From the Deloitte quarterly CFO survey:     Note that the colours are incorrectly marked on the next one:   Pretty telling stuff.

By Philip Soos and Paul D.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released new motor vehicle sales for the month of September 2014, which registered a 2.9% seasonally adjusted jump in the number of sales, and a 0.8% increase over the year (see next table).