Australian Economy

I’m skeptical of such surveys but on a slow news day… …the American Express-CFO Research Global Business and Spending Monitor — found two thirds of Australian chief financial officers expect their company’s spending and investment to be either moderate or tightly controlled in the next 12 months.

Cross-posted from The Conversation:   Hardback, paperback … it’s always good to read between the lines.

From ANZ/ Roy Morgan: Consumer confidence has continued to edge up modestly, rising 1.0% to 103.2 in the week ending 15 June.

From Crikey’s Bernard Keane today: …The government-controlled Senate Economics committee last night released its report into the bill gutting FOFA and recommended it be passed with trivial changes not to the wording of the bill itself, but, remarkably, the Explanatory Memorandum, to address the issues it acknowledged had been raised by industry and key stakeholders.

The NSW budget is out today and is basking in the glow of property.

By Chris Becker The ABS has just released its May figures for new car sales and the trend is down slightly over the month, but up 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms. Over the year there has been a solid 2% fall in sales (-3.3% trend) mainly from Queensland and Western Australia.

The DFP mining job index that we track is out for May and the recent bounce is over: Welcome to the latest edition of the DFP Mining and Resources Job Index where we find the National Job Index fell 5.5% in May 2014.

By Chris Becker From Commsec: World oil prices have lifted over the past week on fears that the violence in Iraq could lead to a disruption of oil supplies in the region.

The RBA’s Christopher Kent is on the hustings this afternoon talking up lousy wages growth: While the growth rates of labour demand and supply have both been weaker over the past couple of years, we know that the former has been more significant than the latter.

Super Retail cut profit guidance to $107 million from a consensus around $115 million because: “This reflects the significant downturn in consumer confidence since the federal budget, particularly across the lower to mid income families who represent core customers.” No new fluffy dice this year!

Team Abbott largely rode to power by tearing apart the climate change consensus and targeting the carbon price.

For those in the know, Westpac’s Red Book is the bible of Australian consumer attitudes.

Leith has covered in detail Uber’s assault on the Australian taxi industry.

From Chris Joye at The AFR: Awash with the cheapest funding since the global financial crisis hit, some lenders are cutting mortgage rates in a win for borrowers, hoping to leverage into Australia’s frothy housing market.

By Leith van Onselen It would be an understatement to say that this week’s consumer sentiment releases by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute and ANZ-Roy Morgan Research (RMR) were disappointing., with both measures showing minimal bounce after the heavy falls following last month’s “tough” Federal Budget (see next chart).

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Who would run a former government-owned monopoly these days?

By Leith van Onselen Stephen Koukoulas (“the Kouk”) has today continued his shift into bear territory, arguing via his blog that the Australian economy is slowing and moving to an easing bias on interest rates: It is staggering the slowdown in the Australian economy that is unfolding before our eyes.

By Leith van Onselen As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released labour force data for the month of May, which registered no change in the headline unemployment rate (still at 5.8%), beating analyst’s expectations of a 0.1% rise in the unemployment rate to 5.9%.

by Chris Becker Well the May print is in for unemployment from the ABS.

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Last week Australia’s Fair Work Commission increased the national minimum wage to A$16.87 an hour from 1 July, 2014.

By Leith van Onselen Westpac has today released its consumer unemployment expectations report for June, which registered a 1.1% fall – the third consecutive monthly decline.

By Leith van Onselen When consumer sentiment tanked after the Federal Budget, I along with many other analysts believed that the impact would be largely temporary and would swiftly recover most of the lost ground once the “sticker shock” from the Budget wore off.