Australian Economy

From Macquarie:  Was August a mistake? The RBA has delivered 50bp of rate cuts since May. However, recent trends in the economy point to GDP growth accelerating to its fastest pace in four years (see: Aussie Macro Moment – BoP review – GDP to crack 3.5%).

From the AIG comes the third of its PMIs, construction: The national construction industry moved back into contraction in August, with the Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) dropping 5.0 points to 46.6 points in the month (50 points is the threshold that separates expansion from contraction).

By Philip Soos, co-author of Bubble Economics: Australian Land Speculation 1830-2013 and co-founder of LF Economics.

From Westpac: Q2 net exports:  –0.2ppts Net exports are trending higher, supported by the mining boom and the lower dollar, but with volatility quarter to quarter.

As dirt does so goes Straya!

From the ABC: A Perth legal centre that provides free advice over the phone for people in debt says calls have almost doubled in the past month, as the local economy continues to adjust to the post-mining boom.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its Mineral & Petroleum Exploration data for the June quarter, which bounced back after recent sharp falls. Nationally, expenditure on minerals exploration rose by a seasonally-adjusted $3.5 million (+1%) over the June quarter (see next chart).

A better month for ANZ job ads in August with 1.8% growth month on month: However, the bigger picture remains distinct slowing in an already luke warm labour market.

From the ABS: Minor positives for GDP in inventories and wages, bit more so for profits.

Melbourne Institute monthly inflation for August is out and manged to flop into the positive at 0.2%.

By Leith van Onselen This site has spent considerable effort highlighting the scourge of youth unemployment, which has risen inexorably since the Global Financial Crisis.

From the AIG comes the second August PMI to hit a brick wall, this time services: The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI® ) fell by 8.9 points to 45.0 points in August.

Finally the nation has been shunted into a decent debate about China and its role in Australia’s future.

By Leith van Onselen We are often told that Australia needs to run high levels of “skilled” migration in order to alleviate so-called skills shortages and to mitigate an ageing population.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian labour market is a weird beast.

Some good news here (or, at least, less dire) in today’s ABS capex numbers.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released data on capital expenditures (capex) for the June quarter of 2016, which registered a sharp 5.4% seasonally adjusted fall in capex volumes over the quarter and a 17.4% decrease over the year (see below table).

From Gotti: We are witnessing the start of a fundamental change in the economics of employing people in Australia.

By Leith van Onselen I have complained previously that Australia’s universities have turned into ‘degree factories’, whereby they teach as many students as possible to accumulate Commonwealth government funding through HELP/HECS debts.