Australian Economy

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of February, which posted surging permanent and long-term arrivals, which broke records on both a monthly and annual basis.

By Leith van Onselen Dr Bob Birrell and Dr Katharine Betts from the Australian Population Research Institute have released a new research paper examining Australian voters’ attitudes towards immigration, which is based on a random survey of 2,029 voters conducted from October/November 2018.

From Martin North, principal analyst at Digital Finance Analytics: DFA has released the March 2019 Household Financial Confidence Index, which is based on our rolling 52,000 household surveys.

From MHJ: And FLT: And S&P: Australian corporates are vulnerable to a confluence of domestic risks.

S&P Global has released an excellent new report, entitled Australian Corporates Vulnerable To A Thrifty Consumer, which warns of the impending household bust: Australian consumer sentiment is listless.

Westpac monthly consumer sentiment: • The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 1.9% to 100.7 in April from 98.8 in March.

Via the ABC: Tens of millions of dollars will be offered to the world’s automotive giants to resurrect the Australian car industry, centred around manufacturing electric and hydrogen-powered cars, under a yet-to-be unveiled Labor plan.

The IMF was out with its new World Economic Outlook overnight and the news for Australia is steeper growth downgrades than just about anywhere else: 2.1% for 2019 is miles below the RBA’s and Budget’s 2.75% (though the latter is for 2019/20).

Sure looks like it.

It appears Labor is revving up to cut temporary visa workers, via Craig Emerson at the AFR: Add to the 900,000 temporary work visa holders the number of illegal workers in Australia and the total reaches almost 1 million.

By Leith van Onselen An EY survey has found that just 28% of Australians expect to reduce their debt in 2019, down from 60% in 2018.

Via ANZ weekly consumer confidence: The fall in confidence last week would be seen as disappointing in Canberra given the near-term boost to household incomes delivered in the Budget.

By Leith van Onselen Australia’s migrant slave economy has been exposed again, with farmers labelling “outrageous” a Fair Work Commission (FWC) ruling that fruit pickers should be entitled to overtime if they work excessive hours.

Let’s reprise some vestigial Goldman Sachs analysis from 2016: A sharp turn in Australia’s national income dynamic, which we flagged in early August, now looks likely to move significantly higher following the spikes in coal and iron ore prices in the closing months of 2016.

Via the AFR: Analysis by The Australian Financial Review shows growth in bank loans of between $100,000 and $500,000 has been negative for the last three quarters, with growth in that loan segment down 0.5 per cent in the December quarter – the worst rate of annual growth for seven years.

Good stuff from Michael Pettis at Bloomie (a few weeks old but worth revisiting): What’s less-understood even now is that if China begins a serious deleveraging, reported GDP growth rates will fall by a lot more than expected – by more than the amount of non-productive activity that had formerly been capitalised.

By Leith van Onselen The ACTU has failed workers yet again, proposing a ridiculously low wage floor for temporary skilled workers of only $62,000 a year: A senate inquiry into Australian business’ use of temporary work visas has recommended significant tightening of the scheme.