Australian Dollar

Overnight we saw the release of both the October and November US jobs reports which at first glance looked nominal but in reality show a worsening employment situations as jobs growth slows even as immigration goes into nearly reverse.

Wall Street was almost unphased overnight by the dual NFP release as US unemployment jumped to a four year high, triggering a rally in US bonds, while the latest UK unemployment figures weren’t rosy either with speculation the BOE may move to easing its rates this week.

A sea of red across Asian share markets with the rough start to the trading week continuing as a wider risk off tone deepens, all mainly due to tech stock volatility.

Another selloff on Wall Street overnight was balanced by a strong bid across European stocks as risk markets continue to dance around the lower volatility trading period before Christmas.

Asian share markets are having a rough start to the trading week as the combination of lower trading volumes heading into the end of the calendar year combined with a lot of movement expected around central bank meetings this week increase volatility across the complex.

It’s going to be a busy week for the Australian dollar which has been on a tear recently against a broadening weakness building in USD (now down over 3% in two weeks).

Friday night saw a large selloff on Wall Street due to tech stocks getting out of sync with reality on earnings while some hawkish talk by Fed officials saw more bond selloffs as Treasury yields pipped higher again.

Asian share markets are doing quite well in the final but relatively quiet session of the trading week with the USD falling overnight on the bad but good initial jobless claims showing a soft US labour market helping supporting the risk taking.

A wobbly night on Wall Street due to Oracles earnings but also a “normalised” US initial jobless claims print proving the labour market is soft as the Fed claimed in its rate cut the previous session.

Wall Street loved the rate cut from the Fed last night and the apparently neutral not hawkish future position espoused by Fed Chair Powell.

The latest Chinese inflation numbers were slightly higher than expected which has seen the potential for a BOC RRR cut next year move lower, also pushing mainland shares down as well.

The Pacific Peso is on fire even before the RBA’s “hawkish hold” at yesterday’s meeting, keeping in on its short term trend that has seen it breach and hold the 66 cent level against USD.

Wall Street remained in a hold pattern overnight as everyone awaits the FOMC meeting with a selloff in Treasuries keeping USD somewhat supported, particularly against Yen while European shares also went nowhere.

All eyes on the RBA in its last meeting of the year today with a hawkish hold the expected outcome which gave the Aussie dollar a small boost but stocks didn’t like the result.

It’s decision day at Martin Place as the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to pull or not to pull – that is the question – the interest rate level.

Overnight action on stock markets was muted given the selloff in bonds across most sovereign markets with Treasuries falling back following hawkish comments from all sides on inflationary pressures.

The latest Japanese GDP figures were the biggest catalyst here in Asia while a boost in tech stocks is seeing Chinese shares lift higher in afternoon trade.

Friday night saw modest gains across both sides of the Atlantic as Wall Street awaits this week’s FOMC meeting and the long expected rate cut from the Fed.

Wall Street had another slow session overnight with an unclear picture of the US labour market weighing on high expectations that the Fed will cut in next week’s FOMC meeting.

Risk markets here in Asia are pivoting more on BOJ rate hike speculation amid near certainty that the Fed’s upcoming December meeting next week will result in a cut, with tonight’s US initial jobless print in the balance given the very poor ADP private numbers recently.

A slowing or deep diving US labour market (not that we would know given the lack of NFP prints) saw a lot more weakness in USD overnight as markets anticipate a full rate cut by the Fed in next week’s meeting.