Australian dollar


CBA: High Australian dollar “structural”

Amusing stuff from CBA today: It would be surprising if AUD/USD fell below its December 2016 level of 0.7160 simply because there was a negative Australia-U.S. rate differential Structural improvement in Australia’s current-account deficit (to 0.6% of GDP vs 4-5% of GDP in 2001 period) Asian and global GDP growth remains firm, and Asia is


Kyle Bass on wrong currency short as Chinese debt “metastasises”

From Kyle Bass today via Reuters: Hayman Capital Management founder Kyle Bass on Thursday said he remains short the Chinese yuan despite the country’s latest change to the guidance rate, because he believes credit bubble problems are “metastasizing.” “What the public narrative is and what they have been doing behind the scenes are two completely


Fed hikes, oil crashes, Australian dollar roars!

Things are heating up. The Australian dollar roared against USD and EUR: As well as commodity currencies: This despite gold getting thumped: And oil crashing: Copper falling: And big miners getting pulverised: EM stocks were stable: Bizarrely, US high yield rose as oil crashed. EMHY was not so lucky: US bonds were sold and the


Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker It’s been a mixed day in Asia with short covering and delusion over iron ore in Australia overshadowed by minor falls across the rest of the region. In mainland China the Shanghai Composite slid on the triple data release with FAI numbers spooking a little, sending the market down 0.7% to 3129


Australian dollar headed for “all-time lows”

From CME Group senior economist Erik Norland: The Aussie has dropped 35 per cent or so off its highs, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it has finished dropping. “Where the currency is trading now doesn’t look particularly aberrant either up or down. The Australian dollar could revisit it’s all-time lows…the risks are there: either


How will central banks govern ponzicoin?

From Tony Yates Professor of Economics at the University of Birmingham via FTAlphaville: The agreed protocols that govern Bitcoin are effectively its monetary policy. In exchange for expending computing power to verify the legitimacy of transactions and record them, Bitcoin “miners” get paid in Bitcoin. (This is roughly analogous to seigniorage income.) These rewards increase the


Why the Australian dollar is going to 40 cents

Via Macquarie: Australia-US bond yield differential going negative?  We think there is an even chance that Australian-US sovereign bond yield spreads fall below zero across the entire term structure (both short and long end) and potentially remain this way into late 2018. This was our expectation at the short end, but the rally in