Australian dollar

15

Westpac: US dollar to keep rising

Via Westpac: Through both ‘risk-on’ and ‘risk-off’ episodes this year, the US dollar trend has remained upward sloping with the US seen as both the best-performing developed market and a yielding ‘safe-haven’ amid global uncertainty. Despite President Trump’s actions this month, to our mind, this US dollar trend is set to extend into 2020. From

4

Is EUR the new safe haven play?

Via Strategic Macro: Normally in a risk off the USD, TSYs would rally and equities and the Euro would fall. The Yen usually rallies due to capital being repatriated. But we have seen in early August that the Euro has rallied on risk off. That can only be flow and position unwind driven. So which

2

Westpac, NAB: Australian dollar to keep on falling

Via Bill Evans at Westpac: Westpac Economics has long argued that the Australian dollar will move lower during 2019 and 2020. There has been evidence of this recently, particularly over the past month, against the backdrop of heightened global volatility as the trade war escalated. Having traded in a range of around USD0.70-0.72 through 2019,

20

Australian dollar roars higher as robots buy

DXY was up, CNY stable and EUR down last night: The Australian dollar roared higher just because: EMs were mixed: Gold held the gains: Oil rebounded: Metals too: And miners ex-RIO: Plus EM stocks: Junk was mixed: Treasuries sold: Bunds less so: And Aussie bonds: Stocks went happy clappy: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap

0

UBS: Risk assets to keep falling

Via UBS: The tepid signs that global growth was bottoming are likely to be overwhelmed by the negative shocks from rising trade tensions. Moreover, the cushion from valuations/risk premia is quite low. The UBS Synthetic Trade War Monitor helps us track where trade sensitive assets sit within the trade talks ‘fear – complacency’ spectrum. Whilst

47

RBNZ shreds Australian dollar to 10 year low with 50bps cut

From the RBNZ: The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is reduced to 1.0 percent. The Monetary Policy Committee agreed that a lower OCR is necessary to continue to meet its employment and inflation objectives. Employment is around its maximum sustainable level, while inflation remains within our target range but below the 2 percent mid-point. Recent data

12

Australian dollar at brink as risk rebounds

DXY was firmer last night. EUR weaker and CNY up: The Australian dollar remains right at decade lows against the USD: EMs did better too: Gold is a freight rain: Oil fell: Metals bounced: Miners didn’t: EM stocks did: And junk: Treasuries were sold: Bunds bid: Aussie bonds too: Stocks bounced: In data, US jolts

19

Australian dollar plunges on as commodities break

DXY fell  sharply Friday night. EUR rebounded and CNY was belted: The Australian dollar almost reached its 2019 flash crash low but rebounded: EM forex is getting hosed: CFTC positioning got shorter again: Gold hit a new closing low, signalling possible further weakness for DXY: Oil was firm: Metals were belted: Big miners were pulverised.

6

How low will the Australian dollar go?

In yesterday’s LIVE webinar, MB Fund’s Head of Investment, Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith and Tim Fuller walk through where the crashing Australian dollar is headed using a five drivers valuaton model: Australia and Global Growth Interest rate differentials; Investor sentiment and technicals The relative strength of the US dollar. Investment Impacts Slides are

0

MB Fund podcast: Australian dollar trap door opens LIVE TODAY

In todays LIVE webinar (11am AEST, Friday 2nd August), hear from MB Fund’s Head of Investment, Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith and Tim Fuller walk through where the crashing Australian dollar is headed: Australia and Global Growth Interest rate differentials; Investor sentiment and technicals The relative strength of the US dollar. Investment Impacts HEAD

4

Australian dollar technicals are fugly

The US dollar index is running riot in Asia after it broke out of its neutral symmetrical triangle on the Fed disappointment: There is room to run on this in terms of market positioning. The big long of US tax cuts has turned small short in recent months as the Fed mooted easing: Further fuel

11

Australian dollar Brexits lower

DXY is approaching breakout even as we approach the Fed. EUR is weak and GBP free falling: The Australian dollar just keeps falling: Gold was strong in the circumstances: Oil too: Metals are confused: Miners were mostly higher: EM stocks went the other way: With junk: Despite a Treasury bid: And bunds: And more record