Australian dollar

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Australian dollar lifts with Cold War thaw

DXY was strong last night as EUR weakened and CNY held on. That chart points the USD higher: The Australian dollar rebounded against developed markets: It was mixed against emerging: Gold fell back: Oil lifted a little: Base metals too: And big miners: EM stocks firmed: And junk: Treasuries were sold: And bunds: Stocks lifted

4

Goldman: Australian dollar to 75 cents

Via Goldman: AUD/USD has had a round trip since the G20 meeting last weekend, initially rallying on the US-China ‘truce’ before falling on weaker GDP data and perceived dovishness from the RBA Deputy Governor Debelle. In our view, Deputy Governor Debelle’s comment that although the next move is likely a hike “there is still scope

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Macro Afternoon

It’s not looking good out there with volatility rising and stocks falling across the board in response to Friday nights US unemployment print and the weekend revelations of the Huawei arrest (and Trump’s possible impending arrest?) and the big drop in US Treasury yields as safe haven buying trumps a Santa Claus rally. The Shanghai Composite was

5

Goldman doves up on Fed, lifts AUD

And so it begins, from Goldman which has been far too hawkish this cycle all along: Relative to the turmoil in the financial markets, the economic numbers have been remarkably stable recently. Admittedly, jobless claims have risen and November payrolls fell somewhat short of expectations. But a report showing 155k new jobs and a decline

2

MB Fund Podcast: Erik Townsend on the future of bitcoin

Today on the podcast we have Erik Townsend, a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager, public speaker and co-author of his own popular industrial grade podcast, MacroVoices. Erik is joining us today to talk about his new book ‘Beyond Blockchain, the death of the dollar and the rise of digital currency’ and how a

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Australian dollar smashed by Huawei arrest

Via the ABC: Canada has arrested Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver, where she is facing extradition to the United States on suspicion she violated US sanctions against Iran, reports say. Meng Wanzhou, who is one of the vice chairs on the Chinese technology company’s board and the daughter of company founder Ren Zhengfei,

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Kouk: RBA to slash rates, Australian dollar to crash

Via the Kouk today, given he and MB are the only ones to have gotten this right: In the wake of the September quarter national accounts, and with accumulating information on house prices, dwelling investment, the global economy and spare capacity in the labour market, I have revised my outlook for official interest rates. For

1

Fed one and done?

DXY was stable last night: AUD too: And gold: WTI sank below $50 before Russia jawboned it higher: Base metals were soft: And big miners: EM stocks retraced: Junk was soft: Treasuries were bid: And bunds: Stocks were flat: Westpac has the wrap: Market Wrap Global market sentiment: Markets were mostly contained, looking ahead to

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Morgan Stanley: Trade war to end, Australian dollar soar

Here is Morgan Stanley via Forexlive on the G2o and Australian dollar: there is a reasonable probability of a constructive statement emerging or even a pause in escalation. Markets would likely interpret such an outcome at the G20 as positive. Absent this type of pause, though, the previously-announced tariff rate increase to 25% on January 1 would

20

Australian dollar soars as Fed doves take flight

DXY took a hit last night: The Australian dollar took flight against developed markets: And EMs: Gold firmed: Oil fell further: Base metals rallied: And big miners: EM stocks look primed to break higher: Junk too: Treasuries were bought: And stocks soared: Westpac has the wrap: Market Wrap Global market sentiment: Markets were jolted late