Australian dollar

7

CBA still an Aussie dollar uber-bull

Via Forexlive comes CBA: The Aussie may have a “more subdued” appreciation path given that the RBA appears in no rush to raise rates Base case is still for AUD/USD to trade higher towards 0.83 bye year-end Sees the AUD rising thanks to solid economic activities and improving global growth and favourable Australian balance of payments

30

Bitcoin sinks to new lows as India applies blanket ban

Via Forbes: There goes India’s cryptocurrency market. The Reserve Bank of India banned banks from allowing people to transfer money from their bank account into Bitcoin wallets. If banks, e-wallets and any other entities regulated by RBI are not allowed to facilitate sale or purchase of cryptocurrencies, individuals will not be able to transfer money

0

Australian dollar technicals

From FL comes some neat technicals for the Aussie dollar via Soc Gen: AUD/USD has recently tested a projection at 0.7650/30, also the 76.4% retracement from last December and the 38.2% retracement from 2016. It is worth noting that since 2016, the corrections in the pair tend to bottom out near the 76.4% of previous

29

Bitcoin’s chart disaster

BTC was hammered last night over new fear of a hack at Binance: More importantly, it drove the price back to its recent support range in the high $6ks: Anyone with half a charting brain can see how important this support has become. That’s a giant bearish descending triangle pattern. Of course, you could argue

16

Australian dollar breaks support

The Australian dollar broke support last night and headed into the mid-76ers: The key up trend line is still about one cent lower. That’s providing succor to some rusted-on bulls, via Kit Jukes at Societe General: In both Asia in February, and in Spain last week, I have been taken to task for expecting the

55

Bitcoin crushed again as noose tightens

Here’s the chart: The trigger was this: “Today’s news on Twitter’s ban is likely a significant contributor to the steep sell-off,” said Timothy Tam, co-founder of crypto-market intelligence platform CoinFi. “As new retail investors enter cryptocurrency, a large portion of them are trading on raw emotion.” Which outweighed this: In an open letter to the Securities and

4

Bill Evans on the driver’s of a weak Australian dollar

Nice video below from Westpac’s Bill Evans summarising his recent Asian tour: I agree with pretty much all of it except I’m more bearish, more quickly on the AUD. FYI, MB has launched a new Australian dollar forecast index which will be updated regularly to keep you abreast of market outlooks. See it here. ———————————————————– David Llewellyn-Smith is

46

Macro Afternoon

A mixed day here in Asia with most stock markets putting in scratch sessions following the poor lead overnight from Wall Street. The White House is getting a new economic advisor – Larry “I’m never right really” Kudlow, so that should work out fine. US stocks are facing their fourth night of losses if confidence

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Last night saw continued withdrawal of buying confidence this time with economic news actually having an impact as US advanced retail sales surprised to the downside. US stocks led the charge down with the Dow off 1% but commodities recovered on the Chinese retail sales/FAI/production figures yesterday. Risk markets are waiting patiently for

54

Bitcoin bull trap snapping shut

Here’s the chart: And the analogy that matters. You are passing through “return to normal” on your way to “fear”, “capitulation” and “despair”:  It’s not complex. BTC is simply in the process of being shut down: ATO warns Google bans ICO ads G20 to apply AML to crypto Mt Gox liquidation It will intensify and

4

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker Last night’s February CPI print for the US was overshadowed by continued chaos in the White House with the Russians sacking the Secretary of State via Trump. Stocks fell alongside oil prices as Treasuries rallied and the USD fell against the majors. The so-called recovery from the January correction is not yet