Since the Albanese government came to power in May 2022 (starting with the June quarter of 2022 as a base), the size of the nation’s economy in per capita terms has contracted by 0.49%.
In terms of GDP per working-age adult (civilians 15 and over), which better adjusts for the ongoing impact of demographic changes on underlying economic growth, the contraction has been even larger, with cumulative growth since the government came to power of -3.12%.
But there is one thing, amongst others, where things have grown dramatically in per capita terms: spending on the NDIS.
During the financial year the government came to power 2021-22, total NDIS spending came to $28.6 billion.
For 2026-27, the expected level of NDIS expenditure is $53.7 billion, and that is assuming the government’s plans to slash growth in NDIS spending are successful.
Meanwhile, during a recent Senate inquriy into the NDIS, Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission executive Adam Meyer stated that crime syndicates had set up dedicated fraud networks targeting NDIS participants, who were tricked or threatened with violence to set up fake claims.
“The actors who undertake those activities are from a broad range of networks … from dedicated fraud networks to bigger, broader organised crime networks who approach targeting the NDIS as part of a broader business model,”
“In those cases, the money they obtain in a fraudulent sense from the NDIS programs, they often recycle into a range of other criminal activity.” Meyer said.
The level of fraud is estimated to be costing the taxpayer $3.7 billion per year.
Meanwhile, since the NDIS Fraud Fusion taskforce was established in November 2022, there have been 88,000 tip offs alleging fraud.
As of the end of the March quarter of 2026, the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) reports there are currently 34 individuals who have been referred for prosecution for fraud as part of 21 separate investigations.
Not exactly a high strike rate.
When appearing before a Senate committee, NDIS Integrity Chief John Dardo revealed that an internal investigation found that 90% of plan managers who manage funding for up to 100 NDIS participants (about 900 of 1540 managers in total) portrayed “significant indicators of fraud”.
“There was “not sufficient judiciary (capacity) to process the cases we have in the pipeline in the country”.
“Prosecution is not the answer. It’s too late,”
“The end game can’t be prosecution. We’ve got to get to prevention.” Dardo said.
The Takeaway
In one hand we have the conclusions of the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC) that the NDIS is effectively a funding mechanism for organised crime; in the other conclusions, the NDIS Integrity Chief states that there is so much fraud the courts lack the capacity to prosecute it all.
It leaves one wondering to what degree the cash injected into the economy via NDIS-derived fraud is powering the nation’s economic growth.
After all, in the words of the ACIC executive Adam Meyer, the funds are being “recycled” into other criminal enterprises.
Perhaps in some strange way we have found a sector of the Australian economy where productivity and business investment are strong; the only problem is it’s all quite literally crime.
