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Shortly prior to the recent by-election which took place in the Western Australian state parliament seat of Secret Harbour, Labor were the heavy favourites to retain what was a safe seat held on a two-party preferred margin of 11.5%.
On the 25th of August, 4 days prior to the by-election, odds makers had Labor at $1.33 to win and One Nation at $3.75; this gave Labor an implied probability of winning of over 75%.
Looking at the history of the electorate of Secret Harbour and its predecessors, which took in the same geographic areas, it’s understandable why it was believed that this long-time Labor stronghold would weather the rise of One Nation intact.
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About the author
Tarric is an Australian freelance journalist and independent analyst who covers economics, finance, and geopolitics. Tarric is the author of the Avid Commentator Report. His works have appeared in The Washington DC Examiner, The Spectator, The Sydney Morning Herald, News.com.au, among other places.
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