Australians pay for Treasury’s astronomical forecasting failure

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When the Morrison government handed down the 2022-23 federal budget in late March 2022, shortly before that year’s federal election campaign kicked off, it was projected that net overseas migration for the full 2021-22 financial year would be 41,000.

With only a little over 3 months remaining in that financial year at the time, it seemed like a fairly good bet on paper that Treasury’s estimates would at least be within the ballpark of the final figure.

Net overseas migration for the 2021-22 financial year ended up coming in at 207,900, not dramatically removed from 241,300 in the final full financial year before the pandemic, despite the fact that borders were only fully open for less than 5 months of 2021-22.

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About the author
Tarric is an Australian freelance journalist and independent analyst who covers economics, finance, and geopolitics. Tarric is the author of the Avid Commentator Report. His works have appeared in The Washington DC Examiner, The Spectator, The Sydney Morning Herald, News.com.au, among other places.