With the end of the month, so too comes the release of the latest housing price data from Cotality (the artist formerly known as Corelogic) and PropTrack.
Amidst recent rate cuts in February and May, and the expectation of significantly more to follow, both data providers noted that conditions were increasingly favourable for housing sentiment.
Overall, June saw moderate growth in the price indices of both providers, up 0.4% nationally on PropTrack’s numbers and 0.6% on Cotality’s. Both providers saw the same level of growth in the capitals as nationally, but with a slight difference in the regions up 0.3% on PropTrack’s figures and 0.5% on Cotality’s.
At a more granular level some interesting divergences between the perspectives of the two sources. Most notably, Hobart prices falling 0.2% on Cotality’s numbers, while rising 0.5% on PropTrack’s and Darwin up 0.2% on PropTrack’s numbers and up 1.5% on Cotality’s.
PropTrack noted in the press release with the price data that the market response to rate cuts may be more measured than in previous cycles.
“In addition, population growth and limited new supply are also placing upward pressure on prices, especially at the more affordable end of the market. With interest rates moving lower, these factors are likely to sustain price growth over the second half of 2025. Despite these tailwinds, the upturn remains gradual and stretched affordability will see a more measured upswing than in previous easing cycles.”
Meanwhile, Cotality is projecting an acceleration in price growth, but notes affordability constraints are a significant factor in limiting upside.
Annualising quarterly change implies a national annual growth rate of 5.8%, which is slightly above the decade average annual rate of 5.2%.
“Given the upside risk that housing values will accelerate further from here as interest rates reduce, the reality is we will likely see home values rise by more than this over the coming 12 months,” said Tim Lawless.
“However, despite the prospect for lower interest rates, affordability constraints will likely temper the extent of a housing market upswing.”
Going Forward
It is hard to challenging to find a data driven reason to disagree with the short term forecasts from Cotality and PropTrack. The market appears set to rise in aggregate in the coming months.
But on a longer term time horizon, the outlook is significantly more murky. The market economy continues to slow and the states are increasingly looking to tighten to their collective budget belts, with potentially significant impacts on levels of overall job creation, as government takes its hand off the wheel and hopes the market sector will take over.