Memo to Dan: How VIC can escape lockdown earlier at no risk

I’ve got a few quick thoughts on Victorian vaccine targets because I would love to get out of lockdown a few weeks early, and I think we have the wrong vaccine policy settings to do that. 

Now, don’t get me wrong. We are only talking a few weeks either way, but the policy changes are simple. And two weeks will make a big difference to the mental health of many!  

Our goal is to get to 80% of the eligible population with two shots as fast as possible. But Pfizer supplies are falling 20% in October:

In NSW, total supply was projected to fall from 4.6m in September to 4.3m in October, due to a reduction in Pfizer from 3.4m to 2.7m. In Victoria, total supply falls from 3.5m to 3.3m due to a fall in Pfizer from 2.7m to 2.2m.

Pfizer supplies were projected to decrease in all states and territories from September to October:

  • In Queensland, from 2.15m to 1.68m
  • In Western Australia, from 1.14m to 859,000
  • In South Australia from 774,000 to 544,000
  • In Tasmania from 287,000 to 201,000
  • In the Australia Capital Territory from 218,000 to 156,000; and
  • In the Northern Territory from 154,000 to 100,000

The rough numbers

  • Victoria has built up from 70,000 to 80,000 shots per day over September. 
  • About 10,000 shots a day are going to 12-15 year olds.
  • About 50,000 shots are first doses.
  • About 20,000 shots are second doses.
  • Victoria currently has six weeks between Pfizer shots.
  • I’m guessing that Moderna will be around 20-25k shots per day in October.
  • Victoria should have 80% of the eligible population having received the first dose by the end of September.  
  • At the end of September, Victoria will need roughly: 1.2m people to have a second dose to hit the 70% target, 1.7m to hit 80%.  
  • I’m guessing Victoria will have about 8% anti-vaxxers

As you can see, a gap is opening up between the number of people likely to get a dose and the number of doses available.

Victoria Vaccine forecasts

 

Issue 1. Moderna doesn’t really help to hit the targets

The Victorian target is to get 1.7m (16y+) to have a second shot. The advice is not to mix shots. So having more Moderna doesn’t help these people.

What hinders people from getting their second shot is other people getting their first shot using up limited Pfizer supplies. 

Recommendation 1: Switch as many people getting the first shot to Moderna or Astrazenica as soon as possible. Particularly 12-15 year olds. We need to use the limited Pfizer to get people their second shot faster.

Issue 2. Six weeks between Pfizer shots

In August, Victoria changed to make it six weeks between shots rather than three to get the first dose sooner to as many people as possible. This was the right move at the time. Now it isn’t.

The problem is that someone who had a shot today turns around and books their second shot in six weeks. So, by definition, if we reach 80% with a first dose in the next few days, the best possible result would be to get to 80% second dose six weeks later. i.e. Mid November.

And the numbers are “back-ended”. Today, only about 50k of the 1.7m are eligible to have a second dose. Change that to three weeks and 650k people will be eligible to have a second dose. Don’t wait. It needs to be changed now. And people who have booked need to be encouraged to change to an earlier date.

Recommendation 2: Immediately change the minimum period to three weeks.

Recommendation 3: Message everyone who has booked a second shot and encourage them to book an earlier shot. 

End result

Make these changes, and we should be out two or three weeks earlier, using up as many vaccines as possible in the shortest time:

Victorian Vaccination forecasts
Victorian Vaccination forecasts

We are working with an optimisation problem. Please Dan make some changes and let us out early!

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Comments

    • steven.grellmanMEMBER

      Geelong disadvantaged – bullshit. Public transport, multiple hospitals, plethora of primary, secondary, and tertiary educational institutions, every government service, University, etc. Visit rural Australia if you want to see disadvantage.
      Still no walk in vaccinations in my LGA (3 hours from Melbourne), and I’m not scheduled for my first jab until mid October.

    • Norlane and Corio have been a socioeconomic basket case for as long as anyone can remember… covid has f all to do with it

      • Ee Zed Eff Kaye Ay

        Maybe read the article rather than the headline. The lockdowns made it worse and people from other areas are seeking assistance.

        • I looked in vain in the article for an explanation of how lockdowns or covid generally had made the situation worse. This seems to be the main section proposing a possible cause for the problem:

          “But Australia’s housing market is a force too big for one community centre to reckon with.

          Average weekly rents have climbed by more than $100 a week over the last few years, and when the roof over your head is in jeopardy, spending on food often comes last.

          Houses for sale in Norlane and Corio are bought sight-unseen by investors in Sydney and Melbourne. It’s rumoured one woman owns at least 60 properties in Norlane alone, whether true or not it makes people fear for the piece of the world they carved out for themselves.

          Those who are priced out are travelling further afield to towns like Colac and Winchelsea, and the food relief trucks follow.”

        • I read the article and I was born and bred in G town. Norlane is was and will always be like that.

  1. Good perspective.

    2 call outs.

    1. Pfizer and Moderna should be reserved for 2nd shots and kids (if they really need it). Astra for everyone else based on broad availability unless they are given a medical exemption. Astra has been available for a long time now so we have to start asking why the delay in uptake. Its an easy way to force the decision for people if you remove access to the other vaccines based on supply.
    2. We should be following the research on efficacy when it comes to 2nd dose timing. My fiancé and I went 7 weeks between Pfizer based on some of the research I had seen, such as this https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1875. The whole 3 week/6 week rubbish was purely political supply chain management.

    • Yes, seems the optimum time between Pfizer shots is longer than the original 4 weeks, so think I’d bunker down for sake of extra couple of weeks.

  2. “I’m guessing Victoria will have about 8% anti-vaxxers”

    The problem with that, is if your guess that Victoria has 8% ‘anti-vaxxers’ is correct; that doesn’t account for the people who aren’t ‘anti-vaxxers’, but don’t feel comfortable with vaccines that remain experimental, where manufacturers have been given government indemnity from being sued by recipients, that don’t prevent contagion, where the survival rate is minimum 98.7% and that there is nowhere enough sufficient information on the effects it will have on children – or being triple-dosed or more. I have spoken to many highly intelligent people who are nowhere near to being ‘anti-vaxxers’, but will not be getting the jab, or allowing their children to have it.

    How many Victorians this category of ‘hesitant’ but not ‘anti-vaxx’ represents, I don’t know. Does anyone? Another thing that gets up the noses of those who’s basic right it is to reject the vaccine, is the one-sided, fact-deficient information they’re being fed – and the disgraceful, apartheid-like vitriol they’re having to endure. The bottom line, is that the only thing the vaccines do, apart from causing possible viral mutations and low-probability side-effects that have already killed hundreds of people, is prevent severe symptoms – in most cases – so far.

    IMO, the only people who should be jabbed with these vaccines, are the elderly, the sick – and most definitely the obese, as hospital admissions and death statics clearly show. Children under the age of 16 should not be jabbed, unless they are morbidly obese – which, in Australia these days is not insignificant, sadly. If my ‘opinion-scenario’ had been the official strategy, vaccinated numbers triggering the reopening of the economy would be significantly lower than even 80%. Likely around 30% or less. Australia would have been ‘open for business’ weeks ago.

    Before trusting any level of government, or any pharmaceutical company on matters like this, please conduct thorough research – and don’t stop at just a single session. Have you ever researched the ‘rap-sheets’ (convictions) of big pharma? The billions in profits these corporations are making from the ‘covid jab’, would barely cover the total fines and political donations made over a twenty year period! It’s becoming very clear that their goal is to have covid jabs become a global annual event. They’ve already stated that when the pandemic has passed, that the cost of vaccines will be increased.

    • Agreed. The disinformation and lies and shifting ground makes me very uneasy. The absolute risk of not having the vaccine is extremely low for the young and healthy. The drive to vaccinate everyone seems pathological.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      that doesn’t account for the people who aren’t ‘anti-vaxxers’, but don’t feel comfortable with vaccines that remain experimental,

      Mate, you are an anti-vaxxer. Get off Youtube, and go talk to your doctor.

      • “Mate, you are an anti-vaxxer. Get off Youtube, and go talk to your doctor.”

        No, I’m not an anti-vaxxer at all. The number of jabs I had prior to Vietnam in 1968 was probably more than you’ve had in your entire life. What I don’t like are people acting like sheep. Maybe your name says it all.

    • You were vaccinated as a child for a very good reason. There
      is no difference here except your age has increased.

      Reality is that this “vaxx” have had more scientists examining
      than pretty much any other vaxx before it, more research data
      available by the share amount of vaxxed people to this date.

      All done in a shorter time-frame than what we normally expect
      which is fair enough..

      But this vaxx has more scientific background than your good
      morning cereal you put into your body every day!!

      You got to be somewhat serious here… at least 50% of the food
      you eat everyday has lesser scientific backing and not even been
      researched in any way what-so-ever. Heck, even the ink used on
      your tattoos is untested and has no science behind it!

      And yea.. your opinion is very biased into anti-vaxx, anti-gov,
      freedumb, and your research is mostly from facebook. It is not
      possible to reach any of your conclusions if you understood
      what and how to research in the first place.

      • “and your research is mostly from facebook”

        With respect, you are talking through your rectum, Fart Mechanic – which is understandable I guess, with a name like that. FYI, I’m not a FB member or follower. My research is based science, current and historical pandemics, plus global SARS-CoV-2 statistics.
        What’s yours based on – mainstream media?

        “You were vaccinated as a child for a very good reason. There
        is no difference here except your age has increased.”

        That statement pretty much sums up where you’re at regarding your research capabilities. FYI, our childhood vaccines were not mRNA vaccines. There’s a significant difference producing very different outcomes.

        • TheLambKingMEMBER

          FYI, our childhood vaccines were not mRNA vaccines. There’s a significant difference producing very different outcomes.

          You didn’t research, you justed watched some youtube of people who agree with your world view – ‘research’ is the stuff you do to get a PhD. I would be VERY surprised if anyone here was qualified to actually do scientific ‘research’ (me included – and I have a Science Degree (maths/physics/computing)!)

          But here is where you show how you don’t understand how vaccines work. The different vaccines DO NOT produce different results! They ALL act in the same way (which is also in the same way as being infected with an actual virus). A foreign protien is introduced into your body, then your body produces a (natural) immune response to it so it knows how to destroy it – and a week or so later that protien is flushed out of your system (or in the case of the virus, it could multiply so much that it shuts down your internal organs.)

          The difference between the vaccines is the protien they introduce and the delivery mechanism for the protien. AZ and Pfizer have almost identical protiens – the Pfizer mRNA actually makes your body produce the protien in the first place. But both are ‘benign’ and both get flushed out of your system in a week or 2. The ONLY thing left in your body afer a few weeks is a ‘pattern recognition’ of that protien. Vaccines are NOT like anti-biotics etc

          • I think you should re-read, my initial comment. Your garbled responses indicate you didn’t, or couldn’t read further than a few lines of the first paragraph. Most of your content is made up from assumptions about me – “Mate, you are an anti-vaxxer.” – “You didn’t research, you justed watched some youtube of people who agree with your world view”.

            “and I have a Science Degree (maths/physics/computing)!)”

            Really… I’m impressed. Now be a good boy – or girl; run off and complete a few more degrees in common sense, empathy and basic English – and one thing before you go, maybe you could explain where your childish assumption about me being an anti-vaxxer emanated. Would an anti-vaxxer recommend the jab for the elderly, the sick and the obese?

    • Frank DrebinMEMBER

      Sounds like the plot line to the latest series of “Goliath” with Billy Bob Thornton.

      Good show that one.

    • Damien KlassenMEMBER

      How about I call it 8% “unwilling” instead…

      Check this link https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-insights/ttpn/vaccination-report

      65+ had 23% either unwilling or unsure six months ago, now its only 5%. 45-64 started at 37%, now 16%. 18-44 started at 41%, now 21%.

      My guess is that as people’s peers become vaccinated that people become more comfortable. NSW is at 86% first shot and still adding people, so the number of people unwilling is clearly well below 14% there.

      I feel like 8% is about right.

      • “How about I call it 8% “unwilling” instead…”

        Yes, Damien, I think that would have been more appropriate. It’s a pity the melbourneinstitute survey hadn’t included a selection of reasons for vaccination hesitancy for those 1200 survey participants. That would have been extremely interesting information for those running the ‘get jabbed’ campaigns. And great reading ‘candy’ for inquisitive old bastards like me!

        At the end of the day, it’d take a lot of convincing to alter my belief that the only people who should ever be jabbed, are the frail elderly, the sick and the obese. If that had been the strategy from the outset, Australia would have been open for business many weeks ago. And if Australian governments hadn’t disgracefully neglected the other ‘pandemic’ – that kills well in excess of 150 Australians every day, costs the taxpayer billions annually and overloads the health system, deaths from covid would be a fraction of what they are today. Of course the ‘pandemic’ I’m talking about – the one governments and their experts refuse to talk about, is the growing obesity factor in the country that’s currently holding the silver medal for the most obese in the OECD.

          • “If my gut is anything to go by, lockdowns are not helping with obesity…”

            Little doubt about that. More booze, with lots of salted peanuts, chips and pretzels with home-baked cakes have been the lockdown rage according to MSM. I’m fortunate in having a reasonably well-equipped gym at home.

            A good quality treadmill parked in front of a telly, or with some good sounds blasting out is a good gut-buster – but you have to enter the ‘sweat-zone’ with heavy breathing – and do a minimum 30 minutes every second day. The in-between days are for upper-body muscle development and can be performed with weights or resistance bands. You should have at least one day off each week with no exercise, but no more than two. In 12 weeks time, you would be amazed at the fine physical specimen staring back at you in the mirror – guaranteed.

            The other, even more important plus, would be the huge improvement in your mental well-being, which you wouldn’t have to wait 12 weeks to experience. It’d become evident almost from the beginning. If health ministers were competent, they’d have focused on the fact that more than half of covid hospitalisations and deaths (78% in the US) are overweight and obese people – and used high profile sports people in saturation ad campaigns to promote exercise during lockdowns – and after. Federal government subsidies could be offered to all citizens for the purchase of home gym equipment. Instead, governments and their ‘experts’ chose to keep the covid/obesity factor well out of sight. Likely for selfish, political reasons.

            BTW, Damien, I think you guys at MB do a great job. Keep it up and I’ll be hanging around a long time! Well, for as long as a cranky old dude can, I guess.

      • An eye-opener, Bakunin – and something everyone should be aware of. Trust me, I’m a pharmaceutical company, I’m too big to be closed down and I donate lots of money to the only two governments your democratic electoral system allows you to have.

  3. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Ailart,
    Thank you. There are a few here that still can’t comprehend the difference between reasoned reluctance and anti.

    • My pleasure, boomen. ‘Reasoned reluctance’ – love it! I wonder what percentage of Australian citizens have contracted ‘reasoned reluctance’? It may be a good indicator on how many of us have the ability to think and act rationally rather than act like sheep. Sheep, of course, don’t think at all…

  4. Martin Kulldorff
    @MartinKulldorff
    (Hahvahd Professor)
    ·
    Work from home hospital administrators
    2020: Thank you essential workers!
    2021: No vaccine due to superior immunity from COVID exposure? We don’t care. You are fired!
    I’d suggest the Reff for resentment and suspicion is about 6!

  5. That’s a good idea for reaching the government targets but once again it would be perverse and a negative result.
    First shots are about 5 times as important to health in the short term than second shots. No Pfizer for first shots means far less first shots taken.
    Also Moderna is Pfizer on steroids and should not be be given to males under 30 especially the second shot.