HSBC is out with a quick note on the latest NZ GDP figures, although according to them they are “so late that they are mostly history”:
New Zealand’s GDP was weaker than expected, rising by only +0.2% in Q3 (market had +0.4%). Downward revisions meant y-o-y growth slowed to +2.0% (market had +2.5%). Growth was held back by continued seismic activity, the high NZD and the global slowdown. However, recent business surveys show improving conditions in Q4, as the post-earthquake rebuild in Canterbury gathers pace. We expect this to be a key support for growth in 2013. While today’sGDP numbers were weak, they were broadly in line with RBNZ forecasts. We expect the RBNZ to keep rates on hold until late 2013
So HSBC sees an improving Q4 and a somewhat brighter 2013 even though mining and agriculture looks to have rolled over in Q3.
121220 New Zealand GDP Weak in Q3 – Conditions Improving More Recently