HSBC sees New Zealand improving

HSBC is out with a quick note on the latest NZ GDP figures, although according to them they are “so late that they are mostly history”:

New Zealand’s GDP was weaker than expected, rising by only +0.2% in Q3 (market had +0.4%). Downward revisions meant y-o-y growth slowed to +2.0% (market had +2.5%). Growth was held back by continued seismic activity, the high NZD and the global slowdown. However, recent business surveys show improving conditions in Q4, as the post-earthquake rebuild in Canterbury gathers pace. We expect this to be a key support for growth in 2013. While today’sGDP numbers were weak, they were broadly in line with RBNZ forecasts. We expect the RBNZ to keep rates on hold until late 2013

So HSBC sees an improving Q4 and a somewhat brighter 2013 even though mining and agriculture looks to have rolled over in Q3.

121220 New Zealand GDP Weak in Q3 – Conditions Improving More Recently

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Comments

  1. “… Growth was held back by continued seismic activity…” We are on a fault line; always have been; and always will be, so siesmic activity is a daily occurrence. If we wait until it all calms down, well, the Second Coming will have come, and gone…

  2. Agreed, I remember growing up as a kid feeling quakes all the time. Then their are the constant problems with volcano’s though nothing big has happened in recent times though it will.

    NZ’s economy looks like a pozni scheme. Just like here property is a stack of cards that has been restricted and built up to such a point that its biting into everyone’s wallets.

    I have often wondered what will happen if Australia went into a hard recession and many Kiwi’s had to go back and sign up for unemployment.