China’s rail cargo volume lifts

China’s rail cargo volume year-on-year growth improved from -5.4% in September to -3.2% in October. Compared with September, rail freight volume increased from 307 million tonnes in September to 325 million tonnes in October.

This data point fits with some of the other recent data which suggest a pick-up in economic activity in the final quarter. The chart below shows the year-on-year growth of freight volumes and GDP growth, while the second chart shows the actual level of rail cargo volume. The magnitude of the fall in rail cargo in the current economic slowdown is comparable to the previous slowdown during the financial crisis (ignoring the Chinese New Year impact). However, it is picking up in October according to official data.

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  1. I think this is a pure seasonal thing, first you have rail traffic because of exports for global Christmas sales, and you have the Chinese new year coming up in 7 or 8 weeks so orders to fill this demand will be coming online.

    Chinese stock market though is a mess, its looking extremely weak and millions of Chinese are losing money. This is because over all factory orders a way down on what they use to be because of a slax export market.

    I wonder if we will see at some point a massive swing from investors in property pulling out as it starts to pop and poring into the Chinese stock market. Seems that is what happens in China.