China’s October lending appears weak

After the massive increase of banks’ deposit in September, Chinese banks saw massive decrease of deposits in the first 28 days of October while lending fell, according to 21st Business Herald.

The big 4 banks (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China) have seen a RMB1.8 trillion drop in total deposits in the first 28 days of October according to the report. The drop in deposits in October came after a RMB1.65 trillion increased in total deposits for all banks in September. Meanwhile, the big four banks have made about RMB125 billion of net new loans during the same period, much below RMB160 billion for the same period of September.

At this rate, total net new loans for October 2012 will probably reach RMB530 billion according to my calculations, or according to an estimate cited by 21st Business Herald, about RMB560 billion. Either way, net new loans for October will probably be lower than September, and year-on-year growth of total outstanding loans will most likely decrease in October at this rate, reversing the uptrend in the previous few months.

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