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Courtesy of Also Sprach Analyst.
China National Bureau of Statistics has its own leading indicator.
The latest reading of the leading indicator is still showing no sign of recovery. July’s leading indicator has fallen from the revised 99.19 of June to 98.75, lowest reading since January 2009.
The chart below shows the leading indicator plotted along with year-on-year GDP growth. As you can see, the official indicator has been reasonably good at identifying turning points in GDP growth. The latest figure suggest that not only was second quarter not the bottom as the consensus view believed few months ago, the now consensus view of a third quarter bottom of growth is looking increasingly shaky as well.
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